Russian Invasion of Ukraine - tactics and logistics

[Jarhyn]

in a market economy even news tends to report what people want to hear.

In our economy, news tends to report what Rupert Murdoch wants people to hear.

But otherwise, I agree with your post.

The thing is, "what people want to hear" is a spectrum even for an individual. By targeting the most conservative plurality of "what people want to hear", the market economy can both tell you what you want to hear and push that towards what Rupert Murdoch wants heard.

Eventually this slow, consistent effort drives the system inexorably towards whatever the beliefs are of whoever sets media tone.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Ukraine very well might take it back eventually, but it will be a bloody fight.

Stalemate and insurgent warfare works for Ukraine. I still maintain that Ukraine has just as good a chance with the hot blonde at the bar as does Russia. This is how wars go. It's never been any different anywhere. Had it the proper arms, Ukraine would have won this fight months ago.

 

[Jayjay]

Regarding Kherson, even Ukraine is saying not to draw premature conclusions about Russia's "withdrawal".

Budanov: Russia prepares for defense in Kherson – not retreat

Russian troops are only creating an illusion that they are leaving Kherson; instead, they are bringing new military units there to prepare for defense, Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine's intelligence chief, told Ukrainska Pravda. Budanov called the evacuation of top Moscow-installed proxies and...

kyivindependent.com

Russian troops are creating the illusion that they are leaving Kherson; instead, they are bringing new military units there to prepare for defense, Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine's intelligence chief, told Ukrainska Pravda.

Budanov called the evacuation of top Moscow-installed proxies and displacement of civilians, announced on Oct. 18, "an information operation and manipulation in many aspects," adding that it can't be said for sure that "they are fleeing from Kherson right now."

Budanov also notes that the Iranian drones are pretty effective:

Russian troops may be using Iranian-made drones to terrorize Ukrainians "for a long time," according to Budanov; however, their missile reserves "are almost exhausted." Budanov added that Russia orders kamikaze drones "all the time" with a one-time batch delivery of about 300 units.

Russian troops have used about 330 Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones, of which 222 were shot down, according to Budanov. He said 30% of the launched drones hit their targets or explode somewhere close to them.

Cheap drones, easy to manufacture.

There are rumors that Iran is also going to deliver short range ballistic missiles to Russia, to help patch up their dwindling reserves of Kalibrs and Iskanders. I think the Iranian knock-offs are likely not as good, but just like with the Shahed-136s, it's going to be a matter of quantity, not quality. Factories are pumping these out like candy in Iran and Russia, and even if air defense shoots most of them down, far too many will hit their targets.

 

[bilby]

And legally, even by international recognition, Taiwan is just as much part of China as Hong Kong or Tibet.

I am unconvinced that 'legally' has much meaning here. International recognition isn't law; And nobody has legal jurisdiction to decide which country owns what territory. Not even the UN.

Countries own the territory they can defend - against their neighbours, or against its inhabitants.

 

[Patooka]

in a market economy even news tends to report what people want to hear.

In our economy, news tends to report(s) what Rupert Murdoch (and Peter Costello) wants people to hear.

But otherwise, I agree with your post.

FIFY. Seriously, the next political party who brings back a 21st century version of cross media ownership laws I will be voting for them for life.

And legally, even by international recognition, Taiwan is just as much part of China as Hong Kong or Tibet.

I am unconvinced that 'legally' has much meaning here. International recognition isn't law; And nobody has legal jurisdiction to decide which country owns what territory. Not even the UN.

Countries own the territory they can defend - against their neighbours, or against its inhabitants.

It's also worth pointing out "Taiwan is as much part of China as Tibet", isn't the ironclad argument one might think. Also, I'd suspect Japan, South Korea, The Philippines, Singapore and Malaysia would have a stronger initial response to China invading Taiwan than Europe initially did with Ukraine.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Good gouge on Belarus.
I like this statement:

Yet rational analysis fails to entirely reassure, given what the world learned in February: that Lukashenko and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin inhabit their own reality, with its own risks and opportunities.

Using reason to predict the actions of individuals who are victims of their own propaganda.

 

[lpetrich]

As to China, the governments of Capitalist and Communist China have both insisted on a "one-China policy" ever since the victory of the Chinese Communists in mainland China. Meaning that they both claim sovereignty over all of China.

Capitalist China = Taiwan

 

[barbos]

Putin is starting to take off the gloves. Will need to suggest most of Ukraine are Nazis now to justify these attacks.

May I remind you NATO bombing of Yugoslavia.

 

[barbos]

All this hokum posturing and propaganda from Adolph Putin is rather like Hitler, after invading Poland, telling the French and British, "See what you are making me do!?"

You mean after Poland invaded Czechoslovakia?

 

[Jayjay]

All this hokum posturing and propaganda from Adolph Putin is rather like Hitler, after invading Poland, telling the French and British, "See what you are making me do!?"

You mean after Poland invaded Czechoslovakia?

My understanding is that Poland wanted to get in on the action when the rest of the Europe decided to appease Hitler by giving him Sudetenland. But Hitler didn't stop there, and eventually got the rest of Czechoslovakia, and continued to Poland. The lessons is the fascist imperialists like Nazi Germany or present day Russia should not be appeased, they'll just want more.

 

[barbos]

All this hokum posturing and propaganda from Adolph Putin is rather like Hitler, after invading Poland, telling the French and British, "See what you are making me do!?"

You mean after Poland invaded Czechoslovakia?

My understanding is that Poland wanted to get in on the action when the rest of the Europe decided to appease Hitler by giving him Sudetenland. But Hitler didn't stop there, and eventually got the rest of Czechoslovakia, and continue to Poland. The lessons is the fascist imperialists like Nazi Germany or present day Russia should not be appeased, they'll just want more.

No. Poland invaded Czechoslovakia. But nobody remembers that because you know, ..... Russia! Russia! Russia! Russia! Russia!
And Soviet Union got back what Imperialist Poland took from Russia in WW1
No more, no less.

And once again, Poland invaded Czechoslovakia along with Hitler. We've talked about that.
And to our american imperialists, please, return Texas to Mexico.

 

[Elixir]

The lessons is the fascist imperialists like Nazi Germany or present day Russia should not be appeased, they'll just want more.

And the remedy is... what worked to neutralize Nazi Germany?
I think it may well come to that, unless more sensible heads soon come to prevail in the Kremlin.
Even at great cost though, breaking Russia up into a bunch of smaller less dangerous oligarchies might be a worthwhile pursuit for the rest of the world.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

The lessons is the fascist imperialists like Nazi Germany or present day Russia should not be appeased, they'll just want more.

And the remedy is... what worked to neutralize Nazi Germany?
I think it may well come to that, unless more sensible heads soon come to prevail in the Kremlin.
Even at great cost though, breaking Russia up into a bunch of smaller less dangerous oligarchies might be a worthwhile pursuit for the rest of the world.

Sometimes I wonder if people who insist there should be negotiations aren't in the same camp as the aggressors. Even if Ukraine falls under Russian domination we should still support Ukraine. I hope the U.S. learns its lesson to support governments, even regimes, that embrace democratic values and aren't only corporate economic interests to be dominated and exploited.

 

[barbos]

The lessons is the fascist imperialists like Nazi Germany or present day Russia should not be appeased, they'll just want more.

And the remedy is... what worked to neutralize Nazi Germany?
I think it may well come to that, unless more sensible heads soon come to prevail in the Kremlin.
Even at great cost though, breaking Russia up into a bunch of smaller less dangerous oligarchies might be a worthwhile pursuit for the rest of the world.

Sometimes I wonder if people who insist there should be negotiations aren't in the same camp as the aggressors. Even if Ukraine falls under Russian domination we should still support Ukraine. I hope the U.S. learns its lesson to support governments, even regimes, that embrace democratic values and aren't only corporate economic interests to be dominated and exploited.

Ze banned opposing parties and media.
And there was nothing democratic in 2014 coup in Kiev.

 

[Elixir]

And there was nothing democratic in 2014 coup in Kiev.

It would have been pretty clean if not for Russia having illegally annexed Crimea in March of 2014 and Russian infiltrators ("infiltraitors"?) in Luhansk and Donetsk doing everything they could to disrupt the election. Strike one for Pootey.
Then, in 2019, Russian meddling bit them in the ass again, when their propaganda campaign against Poroshenko resulted in Zelenskyy's election instead of Pootey's boy Tsarov. Too bad, Pootey - strike two.
Deluded Pootler never learned though; he has just continues to meddle until the futility of his effort drove him to attempt an illegal land-grab by invading Ukraine, which will probably be his last and ultimately fatal fuckup, for a spectacular strike three.

The question that remains is whether the demise of Pootey will mean the demise of Russia, or only the demise of its Soviet ambitions.

 

[Jayjay]

All this hokum posturing and propaganda from Adolph Putin is rather like Hitler, after invading Poland, telling the French and British, "See what you are making me do!?"

You mean after Poland invaded Czechoslovakia?

My understanding is that Poland wanted to get in on the action when the rest of the Europe decided to appease Hitler by giving him Sudetenland. But Hitler didn't stop there, and eventually got the rest of Czechoslovakia, and continue to Poland. The lessons is the fascist imperialists like Nazi Germany or present day Russia should not be appeased, they'll just want more.

No. Poland invaded Czechoslovakia. But nobody remembers that because you know, ..... Russia! Russia! Russia! Russia! Russia!

Yes, Russia is so much worse that bringing up trivial bullshit from 70 years ago is absolutely a red herring.

 

[Jayjay]

The lessons is the fascist imperialists like Nazi Germany or present day Russia should not be appeased, they'll just want more.

And the remedy is... what worked to neutralize Nazi Germany?

I think we're in better position now to stand up to Russia than Europe was in 1938 to stand up to Germany. If appeasement hadn't worked, Hitler would still have taken the Sudetenland and rest simply because there was nothing to stop him.

But if not... there's no way to "neutralize" Russia because of nuclear weapons. We just have to build up our armies and walls, and let Putin have most of the old Soviet Union, and it's Cold War part 2. That's likely to happen anyway, only question is where the new iron curtain will land.

The irony is that even if Russia wins, it'll still end up playing second fiddle to China in the new anti-democratic bloc of countries.

 

[Jayjay]

The lessons is the fascist imperialists like Nazi Germany or present day Russia should not be appeased, they'll just want more.

And the remedy is... what worked to neutralize Nazi Germany?
I think it may well come to that, unless more sensible heads soon come to prevail in the Kremlin.
Even at great cost though, breaking Russia up into a bunch of smaller less dangerous oligarchies might be a worthwhile pursuit for the rest of the world.

Sometimes I wonder if people who insist there should be negotiations aren't in the same camp as the aggressors. Even if Ukraine falls under Russian domination we should still support Ukraine. I hope the U.S. learns its lesson to support governments, even regimes, that embrace democratic values and aren't only corporate economic interests to be dominated and exploited.

Ze banned opposing parties and media.
And there was nothing democratic in 2014 coup in Kiev.

Yes, the president ordering his men to shoot at crowds is not democratic. But the next presidential and other elections were reasonably free and fair, at least compared to the "elections" in Russia or Belarus.

Ukraine is still a corrupt country with too much power concentrated on the president, and too little decentralization. They might very well become a failed state after the war, even if they were successful in retaining their independence. But at this point, it's still the best bet and I for one think that it's worth spending the money to try to help Ukraine become the next Poland, even if there's no guarantee it'll pay off.

(Poland and Ukraine had roughly the same GDP after the dissolution of the USSR, but now Poland's is three times as much as Ukraine's. So it's not impossible that Ukraine could follow in Poland's footsteps.)

 

[ZiprHead]

Lost In Lies: Keeping Track Of Russian Propaganda Claims

www.oryxspioenkop.com

Few countries have weaponised disinformation to the extent Russia has over the past decade. Yet for all its attempts at influencing foreign opinion through fabrications and false narratives, Russia generally puts surprisingly little effort into crafting most of its propaganda claims. Whether it's denying the use of cluster bombs over Syria while at the same time publishing a video showing Syrian-based RuAF aircraft carrying cluster bombs or using footage from a video game as evidence of the United States supporting ISIS in Syria, most false narratives serve to convince Russias's domestic audience or a foreign audience that is already inclined to believe Moscow's narrative in the first place. [1] [2]

In order to justify its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia attempted to create the false narrative that it was in fact Ukraine that invaded Russia and the Russian-occupied Donetsk and Luhansk Regions of Eastern Ukraine, with Russia merely counterattacking in an effort to defend its interests. In order to convince at least its domestic audience of Ukraine's grave intentions, Russia arguably pulled off the worst attempt at showcasing Ukraine's threat by staging a supposed infiltration by the Azov Regiment into Russia. [3] Geolocation of the footage (taken from the helmet of one of the Azov soldiers that supposedly participated in the infiltration) debunked the story within an hour after it turned out that the supposed incursion into Russian territory was in fact carried out from separatist-held territory. [4]

Rather than showing the bodies of the five Azov soldiers that were supposedly killed during the incursion, Russian television instead showed a destroyed BTR-70M armoured personnel carrier (APC) that was painted in an ill-conceived attempt to make it look like a Ukrainian vehicle. [5] The BTR-70M is a Russian upgrade of the BTR-70 APC (not to be confused with Ukraine's and Azerbaijan's domestic BTR-70 upgrade programmes also designated as BTR-70M) that isn't even operated by Ukraine, further highlighting the stunning lack of attention that went into this false flag operation in the lead-up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022. [6]

More in the link.

 

[ZiprHead]

Ukraine latest news: Russia suspends grain export deal - and blames UK navy for Nord Stream pipeline blasts

Latest updates as Russia claims it repelled drone strike in Crimea, with one ship damaged; Russia blames UK navy for Nord Stream gas pipeline blasts - but Britain says Kremlin is "peddling false claims of an epic scale".

news.sky.com