Russian Invasion of Ukraine - tactics and logistics

[Copernicus]

And who do they complain to, if they end up on the front anyway?

 

[Hermit]

Oops

 

[Jarhyn]

Oops

Like, I wonder how intentional this is as an act of protest.

It's the only way to explain the quiet part out loud in Russia.

It's not illegal here in the US to be like me and say the quiet parts out loud, but I know the people who feel an obligation of it would find ways even at personal risk to speak in ways that could be plausibly denied, if it were.

 

[Jayjay]

Like, I wonder how intentional this is as an act of protest.

It's the only way to explain the quiet part out loud in Russia.

It's not illegal here in the US to be like me and say the quiet parts out loud, but I know the people who feel an obligation of it would find ways even at personal risk to speak in ways that could be plausibly denied, if it were.

I think it's just a matter of the people who are part of the system having less fear of consequences. A regular journalist or an opposition figure needs to watch what he says, anywhere, anytime, because anything can be used against him. But if you're one of the in-group, you can talk with your cronies more freely. Like this guy when he thought camera's weren't running yet. Everyone knows the drones are from Iran, but you aren't supposed to say it out loud.

This reminds me of a story in RT (the Russian propaganda channel) in early summer or late spring, where a Russian military officer was saying how the stubborn the Ukrainian prisoners are because they don't respond to torture.

The officer being interviewed, the interviewer, or the propagandists in RT who greenlit the story somehow forgot that Russia wasn't supposed to torture prisoners. How could they miss it? Because everyone knew prisoners were being tortured. Someone in the system have to spend conscious effort to remember that "oh, we aren't supposed to say this out loud".

 

[TV and credit cards]

Interesting tidbit from ISW:

Zaporizhia Oblast occupation head Yevgeny Balitsky reported that Russian authorities have begun efforts to restore the Melitopol-Dzhankoy highway that were originally supposed to begin in 2023.

I did not know it was OOC. Tass states, 120km needs repair. Reading today's brief from ISW, I think the Russkies are really hurting in the south. It sounds like the only effective aspect of their armed forces right now is water.

 

[Jayjay]

Interesting tidbit from ISW:

Zaporizhia Oblast occupation head Yevgeny Balitsky reported that Russian authorities have begun efforts to restore the Melitopol-Dzhankoy highway that were originally supposed to begin in 2023.

I did not know it was OOC. Tass states, 120km needs repair. Reading today's brief from ISW, I think the Russkies are really hurting in the south. It sounds like the only effective aspect of their armed forces right now is water.

To me it sounds like they're digging in and preparing for a long fight rather than "hurting". I think it's doubtful that Ukraine can ever take back the South, except maybe Kherson city.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Interesting tidbit from ISW:

Zaporizhia Oblast occupation head Yevgeny Balitsky reported that Russian authorities have begun efforts to restore the Melitopol-Dzhankoy highway that were originally supposed to begin in 2023.

I did not know it was OOC. Tass states, 120km needs repair. Reading today's brief from ISW, I think the Russkies are really hurting in the south. It sounds like the only effective aspect of their armed forces right now is water.

To me it sounds like they're digging in and preparing for a long fight rather than "hurting". I think it's doubtful that Ukraine can ever take back the South, except maybe Kherson city.

The rules of game theory tell me you would lose such a bet. Ukraine, hoping for the best possible outcome given the circumstances can surely expect to recapture all their lost territory. The wild card isn't Putin anymore, it's western support.

So lets apply those rules to western support and ask what's the best outcome the west can expect given the circumstances. I think the answer is that Ukraine will prevail if given enough support. There certainly is a fascist element within the population of the U.S. but not enough to sway support for Ukraine.

So unless something else comes along to change the "circumstances given" Ukraine can expect to prevail.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Interesting tidbit from ISW:

Zaporizhia Oblast occupation head Yevgeny Balitsky reported that Russian authorities have begun efforts to restore the Melitopol-Dzhankoy highway that were originally supposed to begin in 2023.

I did not know it was OOC. Tass states, 120km needs repair. Reading today's brief from ISW, I think the Russkies are really hurting in the south. It sounds like the only effective aspect of their armed forces right now is water.

To me it sounds like they're digging in and preparing for a long fight rather than "hurting". I think it's doubtful that Ukraine can ever take back the South, except maybe Kherson city.

The rules of game theory tell me you would lose such a bet. Ukraine, hoping for the best possible outcome given the circumstances can surely expect to recapture all their lost territory. The wild card isn't Putin anymore, it's western support.

So lets apply those rules to western support and ask what's the best outcome the west can expect given the circumstances. I think the answer is that Ukraine will prevail if given enough support. There certainly is a fascist element within the population of the U.S. but not enough to sway support for Ukraine.

So unless something else comes along to change the "circumstances given" Ukraine can expect to prevail.

Everything I read, US and EU news breaks Ukraine's way short and long term. I sure would like to see some evidence to the contrary if it exists.

 

[Jayjay]

One thing that could "change the circumstances" is if Xi decides to take advantage and invades Taiwan. Blinken recently warned that it might happen sooner than expected, in a few years time instead of decades.

If you were Xi, and wanted to take back Taiwan like you did Hong Kong, wouldn't the best time to do it be when the USA is tied up somewhat in Ukraine?

 

[Harry Bosch]

One thing that could "change the circumstances" is if Xi decides to take advantage and invades Taiwan. Blinken recently warned that it might happen sooner than expected, in a few years time instead of decades.

If you were Xi, and wanted to take back Taiwan like you did Hong Kong, wouldn't the best time to do it be when the USA is tied up somewhat in Ukraine?

Maybe. However, it will be very difficult for China to take Taiwan.

 

[Elixir]

One thing that could "change the circumstances" is if Xi decides to take advantage and invades Taiwan. Blinken recently warned that it might happen sooner than expected, in a few years time instead of decades.

If you were Xi, and wanted to take back Taiwan like you did Hong Kong, wouldn't the best time to do it be when the USA is tied up somewhat in Ukraine?

Maybe. However, it will be very difficult for China to take Taiwan.

Wouldn't it better further the individuals in China's regime to perpetuate the current condition (ambition for Grand Unification w/Taiwan) more than it would benefit them to undertake to actually accomplish such a thing? (Except for demonstration purposes as needed to maintain the appearance of making the claim of possession).

 

[bilby]

One thing that could "change the circumstances" is if Xi decides to take advantage and invades Taiwan. Blinken recently warned that it might happen sooner than expected, in a few years time instead of decades.

If you were Xi, and wanted to take back Taiwan like you did Hong Kong, wouldn't the best time to do it be when the USA is tied up somewhat in Ukraine?

China "taking back" Taiwan would be absolutely nothing like China taking back Hong Kong.

Hong Kong was leased to the UK on a 101 year basis. The lease was up, China exercised her right not to renew it.

Taiwan is the territory retained by the losing side in a civil war. It belongs to the Taiwanese, just as much as China belongs to the Chinese. Both nations have (equally doubtful) claims on the territory of the other.

To spin an analogy, Hong Kong was a case of your landlord deciding not to renew your tenancy, because he wants to use his house himself now. If you refuse to leave, he could have you evicted, so you might as well go peacefully.

China invading Taiwan would be more like your neighbour deciding to just throw you out of your own house, that you own, because they want to live there instead, and they're big enough to beat the crap out if you if you don't leave.

These are not similar scenarios.

 

[bilby]

One thing that could "change the circumstances" is if Xi decides to take advantage and invades Taiwan. Blinken recently warned that it might happen sooner than expected, in a few years time instead of decades.

If you were Xi, and wanted to take back Taiwan like you did Hong Kong, wouldn't the best time to do it be when the USA is tied up somewhat in Ukraine?

Maybe. However, it will be very difficult for China to take Taiwan.

Wouldn't it better further the individuals in China's regime to perpetuate the current condition (ambition for Grand Unification w/Taiwan) more than it would benefit them to undertake to actually accomplish such a thing? (Except for demonstration purposes as needed to maintain the appearance of making the claim of possession).

Indeed it would. Claiming Taiwan is the Chinese equivalent of opposition to abortion rights, or claims that The South Will Rise Again. It's good propaganda to keep your support base in the game, but actually doing anything about it would be a total disaster, and everyone with half a brain knows it.

Or perhaps a closer analogy would be Argentine claims to Las Malvinas. It was a great way to drum up popularity, right up until they stupidly staged an actual invasion.

 

[Jayjay]

One thing that could "change the circumstances" is if Xi decides to take advantage and invades Taiwan. Blinken recently warned that it might happen sooner than expected, in a few years time instead of decades.

If you were Xi, and wanted to take back Taiwan like you did Hong Kong, wouldn't the best time to do it be when the USA is tied up somewhat in Ukraine?

China "taking back" Taiwan would be absolutely nothing like China taking back Hong Kong.

Hong Kong was leased to the UK on a 101 year basis. The lease was up, China exercised her right not to renew it.

Taiwan is the territory retained by the losing side in a civil war. It belongs to the Taiwanese, just as much as China belongs to the Chinese. Both nations have (equally doubtful) claims on the territory of the other.

To spin an analogy, Hong Kong was a case of your landlord deciding not to renew your tenancy, because he wants to use his house himself now. If you refuse to leave, he could have you evicted, so you might as well go peacefully.

China invading Taiwan would be more like your neighbour deciding to just throw you out of your own house, that you own, because they want to live there instead, and they're big enough to beat the crap out if you if you don't leave.

These are not similar scenarios.

I wasn't referring to HK reverting back to China in 1997, but the recent crackdown on HK's status as a special area that retained some of its old freedoms. It could be considered a case of "landlord deciding not to renew your tenancy", but I don't think Xi the landlord considers Taiwan any differently. It's just a bigger piece of real estate. And legally, even by international recognition, Taiwan is just as much part of China as Hong Kong or Tibet.

 

[Harry Bosch]

One thing that could "change the circumstances" is if Xi decides to take advantage and invades Taiwan. Blinken recently warned that it might happen sooner than expected, in a few years time instead of decades.

If you were Xi, and wanted to take back Taiwan like you did Hong Kong, wouldn't the best time to do it be when the USA is tied up somewhat in Ukraine?

China "taking back" Taiwan would be absolutely nothing like China taking back Hong Kong.

Hong Kong was leased to the UK on a 101 year basis. The lease was up, China exercised her right not to renew it.

Taiwan is the territory retained by the losing side in a civil war. It belongs to the Taiwanese, just as much as China belongs to the Chinese. Both nations have (equally doubtful) claims on the territory of the other.

To spin an analogy, Hong Kong was a case of your landlord deciding not to renew your tenancy, because he wants to use his house himself now. If you refuse to leave, he could have you evicted, so you might as well go peacefully.

China invading Taiwan would be more like your neighbour deciding to just throw you out of your own house, that you own, because they want to live there instead, and they're big enough to beat the crap out if you if you don't leave.

These are not similar scenarios.

I wasn't referring to HK reverting back to China in 1997, but the recent crackdown on HK's status as a special area that retained some of its old freedoms. It could be considered a case of "landlord deciding not to renew your tenancy", but I don't think Xi the landlord considers Taiwan any differently. It's just a bigger piece of real estate. And legally, even by international recognition, Taiwan is just as much part of China as Hong Kong or Tibet.

How is Taiwan legally part of China? Personally, I reject the notion that a person belongs to another country that he fled just because his family if from that country. And this is not international law. But even if you accepted this dated notion, there are native Taiwanese who have never been ruled by China.

 

[ZiprHead]

So Russia is now claiming Ukraine is planning to use dirty bombs against Russia. To prove their case they are using years old photgraphs and old Russian propaganda.

 

[Jarhyn]

So Russia is now claiming Ukraine is planning to use dirty bombs against Russia. To prove their case they are using years old photgraphs and old Russian propaganda.

Ok, in my "Russia stars WW3 bingo card", we are at "Russia trying to claim someone else is going to use a nuke where Russia is planning to use a nuke"

It's not looking good for Kherson.

They are expediting so they can point a finger in Kherson...

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

All this hokum posturing and propaganda from Adolph Putin is rather like Hitler, after invading Poland, telling the French and British, "See what you are making me do!?"

 

[Jayjay]

To me it sounds like they're digging in and preparing for a long fight rather than "hurting". I think it's doubtful that Ukraine can ever take back the South, except maybe Kherson city.

The rules of game theory tell me you would lose such a bet. Ukraine, hoping for the best possible outcome given the circumstances can surely expect to recapture all their lost territory. The wild card isn't Putin anymore, it's western support.

So lets apply those rules to western support and ask what's the best outcome the west can expect given the circumstances. I think the answer is that Ukraine will prevail if given enough support. There certainly is a fascist element within the population of the U.S. but not enough to sway support for Ukraine.

So unless something else comes along to change the "circumstances given" Ukraine can expect to prevail.

Everything I read, US and EU news breaks Ukraine's way short and long term. I sure would like to see some evidence to the contrary if it exists.

Barbos would say that it's because western media lies. That's not true, the media doesn't "lie" per se, but it has a bias towards certain kind of reporting. Not because it's being told to hide bad news from above, but because in a market economy even news tends to report what people want to hear. And nobody wants to hear amid growing inflation and rising energy prices that everything is going to hell in a handbasket. People want to hear that plucky Ukrainian soldiers are taking their land back and everything is going to be fine in the end.

What I see is many dark clouds in the horizon for Ukraine. Mainly political threats from west: Republicans winning the midterms and Trump possibly starting to campaign for 2024. Italy's new government that includes Berlusconi and Salvini, two of Putin's best buddies. Germany's economy, that used to be based on cheap Russian energy, is going down the crapper and it's not hard to find people in Berlin who'd rather see the war come to a quick conclusion even if it means Ukraine has to give up land.

But also military situation on the ground: Ukraine isn't making much progress anywhere right now. Russia has the advantage as the defender, and with the ongoing mobilization and martial law measures it can dig in and keep most of what it has conquered. And unlike the est, Russia is a dictatorship that can turn its whole economy to support the war effort, however inefficient it might be due to corruption. Ukraine's capability to keep up is nil, and for the west this is always going to be a hobby project.

Just look at Kherson. Even if it does look like Russia is withdrawing, with the collaborators evacuating and statues and other stuff being looted from the city, most of the info about it comes from Russian sources. Ukraine hasn't actually made any moves in recent weeks. Ukraine very well might take it back eventually, but it will be a bloody fight.

 

[bilby]

in a market economy even news tends to report what people want to hear.

In our economy, news tends to report what Rupert Murdoch wants people to hear.

But otherwise, I agree with your post.