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Russian Invasion of Ukraine - tactics and logistics

Rhea said:
I’m very curious about their actions. Is it as simmple as admitting publicly that it was never about Donetsk and Luhansk, but was always about the land route to Crimea?
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I doubt that it was "always about" anything it's currently about; Putin's objective back in February was to defeat and occupy Ukraine as a whole, using his vastly superior army to crush Ukraine like a bug, sending a clear message of Russian dominance in the region of the former Soviet Union (maybe the entire former Warsaw Pact) to NATO, and (more importantly) to anyone in those regions who might be interested in freedom from Russian influence.

This narrative was widely accepted as truth, even in the West - Zelensky was even offered evacuation and asylum in the face of this expected defeat by that overwhelming Russian power.

All Putin needed was a short, victorious war.

The "liberation" of Donetsk and Luhansk would have been a side effect of the total defeat of Ukraine, and a fig-leaf on its otherwise undeniable illegality.

Since the abject failure of the Russian military to come anywhere close to their much vaunted and widely accepted regional invincibility, Putin's goals have repeatedly been watered down, and adjusted to better reflect the very limited abilities his military has been revealed to have. How far down the list hit goes depends on how much worse it gets for his army on the ground.

All of Ukraine

All of Eastern and Southern Ukraine

Donetsk and Luhansk, Crimea, and the lands in between

Crimea, and a land bridge to Russia

Crimea

Survival of the Putin regime in Russia

Survival of Putin
 
Rhea said:
Interesting post in teh Institute for the Study of War today:

Institute for the Study of War

Russian forces continue to conduct meaningless offensive operations around Donetsk City and Bakhmut instead of focusing on defending against Ukrainian counteroffensives that continue to advance. Russian troops continue to attack Bakhmut and various
www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org


Russian forces continue to conduct meaningless offensive operations around Donetsk City and Bakhmut instead of focusing on defending against Ukrainian counteroffensives that continue to advance. Russian troops continue to attack Bakhmut and various villages near Donetsk City of emotional significance to pro-war residents of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) but little other importance. The Russians are apparently directing some of the very limited reserves available in Ukraine to these efforts rather than to the vulnerable Russian defensive lines hastily thrown up along the Oskil River in eastern Kharkiv Oblast. The Russians cannot hope to make gains around Bakhmut or Donetsk City on a large enough scale to derail Ukrainian counteroffensives and appear to be continuing an almost robotic effort to gain ground in Donetsk Oblast that seems increasingly divorced from the overall realities of the theater.

Russian failures to rush large-scale reinforcements to eastern Kharkiv and to Luhansk Oblasts leave most of Russian-occupied northeastern Ukraine highly vulnerable to continuing Ukrainian counter-offensives. The Russians may have decided not to defend this area, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s repeated declarations that the purpose of the “special military operation” is to “liberate” Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Prioritizing the defense of Russian gains in southern Ukraine over holding northeastern Ukraine makes strategic sense since Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts are critical terrain for both Russia and Ukraine whereas the sparsely-populated agricultural areas in the northeast are much less so. But the continued Russian offensive operations around Bakhmut and Donetsk City, which are using some of Russia’s very limited effective combat power at the expense of defending against Ukrainian counteroffensives, might indicate that Russian theater decision-making remains questionable.

Ukrainian forces appear to be expanding positions east of the Oskil River and north of the Siverskyi Donets River that could allow them to envelop Russian troops holding around Lyman. Further Ukrainian advances east along the north bank of the Siverskyi Donets River could make Russian positions around Lyman untenable and open the approaches to Lysychansk and ultimately Severodonetsk. The Russian defenders in Lyman still appear to consist in large part of BARS (Russian Combat Army Reserve) reservists and the remnants of units badly damaged in the Kharkiv Oblast counteroffensive, and the Russians do not appear to be directing reinforcements from elsewhere in the theater to these areas.

Key Takeaways

Russian forces continue to prioritize strategically meaningless offensive operations around Donetsk City and Bakhmut over defending against continued Ukrainian counter-offensive operations in Kharkiv Oblast.
Ukrainian forces liberated a settlement southwest of Lyman and are likely continuing to expand their positions in the area.
Ukrainian forces continued to conduct an interdiction campaign in Kherson Oblast.
Russian forces continued to conduct unsuccessful assaults around Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
Ukrainian sources reported extensive partisan attacks on Russian military assets and logistics in southern Zaporizhia Oblast.
Russian officials continued to undertake crypto-mobilization measures to generate forces for war Russian war efforts.
Russian authorities are working to place 125 “orphan” Ukrainian children from occupied Donetsk Oblast with Russian families.
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(My emphasis)

I’m very curious about their actions. Is it as simmple as admitting publicly that it was never about Donetsk and Luhansk, but was always about the land route to Crimea?
Click to expand...

No orders. They've no reinforcements hence no objective they can execute.

My concern is since they can beat no one else, they will step up attacks on civilians.
 
Rhea said:
I’m very curious about their actions. Is it as simmple as admitting publicly that it was never about Donetsk and Luhansk, but was always about the land route to Crimea?
Click to expand...
I suspect the reason is much simpler: Moscow doesn't have a good response so the system is paralyzed, no new orders (because you certainly don't want to give a bad order) and so they continue to carry out the orders they already have, however overtaken by events they are.
 
While Putin was waiting for the Ukrainians to lose their will to fight, his own troops lost theirs. Not that they had much of an incentive to fight in the first place. Nothing they were told about Ukraine and its military turned out to be true, so it must be difficult to decide what to do next. Most Russian troops just want to go home. They have been shamed and disgraced.
 
Copernicus said:
While Putin was waiting for the Ukrainians to lose their will to fight, his own troops lost theirs. Not that they had much of an incentive to fight in the first place. Nothing they were told about Ukraine and its military turned out to be true, so it must be difficult to decide what to do next. Most Russian troops just want to go home. They have been shamed and disgraced.
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I feel really bad for all those folks for whom this is just a paradigm of existence, lying and expecting to be lied to, and there never being any enduring reality of truth, except for the current truth, which was always the only truth, until it's to the next truth which will have always been this new one...

There has to be some emergent awareness that this is fundamentally fucked up, but my expectation is that many such folks who find it somehow also find an open third floor window.
 
This war just went from "special operations" to "war". Now this is getting dangerous for real, threatening to pull us all in. But this fucking lunatic has to be stopped now. Haven't we reached the point where Europe was 1/9 1939? I think so.


The interesting thing is that it'll take six months before Russian reserves will reach the front. That means that Russia is counting on this war continuing that long. Not good.
 
DrZoidberg said:
This war just went from "special operations" to "war". Now this is getting dangerous for real, threatening to pull us all in. But this fucking lunatic has to be stopped now. Haven't we reached the point where Europe was 1/9 1939? I think so.


The interesting thing is that it'll take six months before Russian reserves will reach the front. That means that Russia is counting on this war continuing that long. Not good.
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They'll get there much faster. There are stories of contract soldiers being thrown to Ukraine after only a couple of weeks of training. If Russia is smart though, they'll train the troops a little bit longer, but definitely not for six months. Also, this means that contract soldiers that are currently serving will not be able to quit even if their contracts say so. That will have immediate impact.

I've been saying since the beginning that mobilization is on the cards, and it has been the main reason why I've been very skeptical of Ukraine's chances in this war. It's great that Putin was stupid enough not to do it sooner, but counting on your opponents stupidity to continue forever would have been foolish.

What the west needs to do is not go batshit insane, but continue on current path, just speed it up. Train Ukrainian troops in UK, Poland, Germany. Send more drones, counter-battery radars, and develop together with Ukraine good counters to Russian artillery. Come up with better anti-drone tactics now that Russia is using Iranian attack and suicide UAVs. Limited number of ATACMS would be useful. And we shouldn't publicly announce everything that's delivered, so that Russia can come up with counters.
 
A big unknown is what does Russia have left to arm these "soldiers" with aside from small arms. My understanding is they are not building any new tanks. Their artillery barrels are worn to the point of splitting. You can't keep firing rounds out of these things indefinitely. They cannot machine new barrels nearly fast enough to replace as needed. I believe they only have one machine to do it and are having to use a lower grade Russian steel since 2014 to make them. They haven't the basic electronic components they relied upon the west for to build much of anything for their military. So what do they have left and where to they take it from and how willing are they to expose themselves elsewhere in order to expend soldiers and munitions in Ukraine?

They may have little more than the armageddon stuff left to use. If so, it either gets real real real fast or it is a bluff.
Well, let see if the Russian public and/or China has any comment on the matter.
 
TV and credit cards said:
A big unknown is what does Russia have left to arm these "soldiers" with aside from small arms.
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Unfortunately, Russia has a history of saying "arms? Fuck it...just send bodies to the front and hope it all works out."

A mobilization - partial or full - will not be Russia revealing that they've been secretly holding back their best armor and weapons on the off chance that the "special military operation" didn't work out. Putin will rely on attrition. They don't have better soldiers, but they have more. Vlad has no problem with sending a hundred thousand or a million to their deaths if he can "liberate" Ukraine.
 
Ford said:
TV and credit cards said:
A big unknown is what does Russia have left to arm these "soldiers" with aside from small arms.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately, Russia has a history of saying "arms? Fuck it...just send bodies to the front and hope it all works out."

A mobilization - partial or full - will not be Russia revealing that they've been secretly holding back their best armor and weapons on the off chance that the "special military operation" didn't work out. Putin will rely on attrition. They don't have better soldiers, but they have more. Vlad has no problem with sending a hundred thousand or a million to their deaths if he can "liberate" Ukraine.
Click to expand...
Pewtin and his yes men are operating under the delusion that Ukraine's military is as fucked up as Russia's, tactically, strategically and motivationally. What constitutes an effective modern fighting force is probably gone from the collective memory of Pewtin and his crowd. There's some liberating going on, Russia's, long term. Pewtin and his lackeys are living in a glorious, heroic, motherland, propaganda movie among other things.
 
TV and credit cards said:
A big unknown is what does Russia have left to arm these "soldiers" with aside from small arms.
Click to expand...
First: Retainment. The guys already on the field can't leave when their contracts end. They already have equipment so it's not an issue (well, not a bigger issue than it would be without mobilization).

Second: Russian logistics are a nightmare from what I've read. Ammunition is in boxes and carried by hand. They need people to just haul the ammo from trains to trucks and to the front lines. No weapons needed, but it's critical for the Russian artillery machine to keep churning. There's also stuff like digging trenches and policing the natives.

Also I wouldn't underestimate Russia's ability to produce new weapons, especially the kind without fancy electronics.
 
T.G.G. Moogly said:
Ford said:
TV and credit cards said:
A big unknown is what does Russia have left to arm these "soldiers" with aside from small arms.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately, Russia has a history of saying "arms? Fuck it...just send bodies to the front and hope it all works out."

A mobilization - partial or full - will not be Russia revealing that they've been secretly holding back their best armor and weapons on the off chance that the "special military operation" didn't work out. Putin will rely on attrition. They don't have better soldiers, but they have more. Vlad has no problem with sending a hundred thousand or a million to their deaths if he can "liberate" Ukraine.
Click to expand...
Pewtin and his yes men are operating under the delusion that Ukraine's military is as fucked up as Russia's, tactically, strategically and motivationally. What constitutes an effective modern fighting force is probably gone from the collective memory of Pewtin and his crowd. There's some liberating going on, Russia's, long term. Pewtin and his lackeys are living in a glorious, heroic, motherland, propaganda movie among other things.
Click to expand...
On some level, Vlad's propaganda about Ukraine being "a tool of the west" isn't far off. Turns out, in the wake of Russia's annexation of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine, the US sent advisors to the country to teach their military all the valuable lessons that 'Murica had learned in decades of fighting aysmmetrical warfare in Iraq and Afghanistan. Russia was stuck in their old Soviet model of "just throw a bunch of peasants at the problem and it will all sort itself out."

After losing badly in the separatist territories, Ukraine stepped back and accepted this aid, and abandoned their old Soviet tactics. Couple that with actual working weapons systems that aren't hamstrung with decades of corruption, and they've been able to give Putin a fight he never expected.

Can they launch a counter-offensive strong enough to kick the Russians out? Hmm...
 
Ford said:

Can they launch a counter-offensive strong enough to kick the Russians out? Hmm...
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Yes they can. They've been demonstrating this and continue to demonstrate it. At this point I think Ukraine has resigned itself to the fact that Pewtin will engage in utter destruction of Ukraine's infrastructure, but that Ukraine will not be deterred. There is no alternative except enslavement and domination. They will die before this happens. The key is obviously western support for their military.
 
The mobilization is a startling admission that Russia is losing the war and must resort to desperate measures to stem troop losses. As Jayjay has pointed out, preventing troops now in the field from ending their service is probably the largest immediate impact that this move will have on the war itself. What isn't known is how much turmoil this will cause domestically for Putin. It was one thing when those fighting were largely volunteers and regular conscripts, but now they will be drafting people who had no expectation of being sent into combat. The antiwar resistance has just received a huge shot in the arm, because it is now harder than ever to keep up the facade of business as usual.
 
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Copernicus said:
The mobilization is a startling admission that Russia is losing the war and must resort to desperate measures to stem troop losses. As Jayjay has pointed out, preventing troops now in the field from ending their service is probably the largest immediate impact that this move will have on the war itself. What isn't known is how much turmoil this will cause domestically for Putin. It was one thing when those fighting were largely volunteers and regular conscripts, but now they will be drafting people who had no expectation of being sent into combat. The antiwar resistance has just received a huge shot in the arm, because it is now harder than ever to keep up the facade of business as usual.
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The mobilization could seriously backfire on Putin. It seriously damages his credibility. It is an admission of defeat. He can’t count on the loyalty of these soldiers nor even his senior officers. At least Stalin had the good sense to get rid of any officers that might pose a serious military threat in case of attack. He risks further domestic disturbances and opposition. He also seriously risks a revolt by many soldiers in his military. Keeping them beyond their contracts? Seriously? They may all just say fuck you to him.

Finally more troops doesn’t necessarily translate into victory. As pointed out above by tv and credit cards they’ve practically exhausted their armor and artillery and haven’t replaced them. I noted the Baltic states have put their military on alert too. He’s got to worry that this will drain all of his power and he won’t have anything to defend his regime if there’s another threat. Throwing more troops in just means more casualties. Far more. And again they may refuse.

But then what? My fear is he will order nukes. And what can we do to counter it? Give Ukraine some tactical nukes? Attack them ourselves? Tell them we disapprove?

Or would their military refuse to do follow such an order knowing that it could have severe consequences?

I fear what’s coming.
 
Just to make things clear... it took the US months to mobilize 160,000 troops. Because it ain't just the troops.

Putin is asking a lot of Russia right now to free Ukraine from its duly elected government. Winter is coming, and while the Ukrainians will be suffering, they are suffering with nationalistic purpose. The Russian draftees? They'll just be suffering. Also, 300,000 is roughly 1/5th of what I'd say would be needed to occupy hostile Ukraine. Putin appears so desperate to win, he doesn't care if it actually ends up being losing.
 
Jayjay said:
DrZoidberg said:
This war just went from "special operations" to "war". Now this is getting dangerous for real, threatening to pull us all in. But this fucking lunatic has to be stopped now. Haven't we reached the point where Europe was 1/9 1939? I think so.


The interesting thing is that it'll take six months before Russian reserves will reach the front. That means that Russia is counting on this war continuing that long. Not good.
Click to expand...
They'll get there much faster. There are stories of contract soldiers being thrown to Ukraine after only a couple of weeks of training. If Russia is smart though, they'll train the troops a little bit longer, but definitely not for six months. Also, this means that contract soldiers that are currently serving will not be able to quit even if their contracts say so. That will have immediate impact.

I've been saying since the beginning that mobilization is on the cards, and it has been the main reason why I've been very skeptical of Ukraine's chances in this war. It's great that Putin was stupid enough not to do it sooner, but counting on your opponents stupidity to continue forever would have been foolish.

What the west needs to do is not go batshit insane, but continue on current path, just speed it up. Train Ukrainian troops in UK, Poland, Germany. Send more drones, counter-battery radars, and develop together with Ukraine good counters to Russian artillery. Come up with better anti-drone tactics now that Russia is using Iranian attack and suicide UAVs. Limited number of ATACMS would be useful. And we shouldn't publicly announce everything that's delivered, so that Russia can come up with counters.
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Perhaps we should also send angry letters?
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
Just to make things clear... it took the US months to mobilize 160,000 troops. Because it ain't just the troops.

Putin is asking a lot of Russia right now to free Ukraine from its duly elected government. Winter is coming, and while the Ukrainians will be suffering, they are suffering with nationalistic purpose. The Russian draftees? They'll just be suffering. Also, 300,000 is roughly 1/5th of what I'd say would be needed to occupy hostile Ukraine. Putin appears so desperate to win, he doesn't care if it actually ends up being losing.
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Wait, does Putin seriously not know how it goes when someone tries attacking in northern Europe in winter?

Like, Russia INVENTED using the winter as a weapon does Putin really not understand that they are about to have done to them what so many others have done?
 
DrZoidberg said:
Jayjay said:
DrZoidberg said:
This war just went from "special operations" to "war". Now this is getting dangerous for real, threatening to pull us all in. But this fucking lunatic has to be stopped now. Haven't we reached the point where Europe was 1/9 1939? I think so.


The interesting thing is that it'll take six months before Russian reserves will reach the front. That means that Russia is counting on this war continuing that long. Not good.
Click to expand...
They'll get there much faster. There are stories of contract soldiers being thrown to Ukraine after only a couple of weeks of training. If Russia is smart though, they'll train the troops a little bit longer, but definitely not for six months. Also, this means that contract soldiers that are currently serving will not be able to quit even if their contracts say so. That will have immediate impact.

I've been saying since the beginning that mobilization is on the cards, and it has been the main reason why I've been very skeptical of Ukraine's chances in this war. It's great that Putin was stupid enough not to do it sooner, but counting on your opponents stupidity to continue forever would have been foolish.

What the west needs to do is not go batshit insane, but continue on current path, just speed it up. Train Ukrainian troops in UK, Poland, Germany. Send more drones, counter-battery radars, and develop together with Ukraine good counters to Russian artillery. Come up with better anti-drone tactics now that Russia is using Iranian attack and suicide UAVs. Limited number of ATACMS would be useful. And we shouldn't publicly announce everything that's delivered, so that Russia can come up with counters.
Click to expand...
Perhaps we should also send angry letters?
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Yes! Increase anger by 50%! :mad:

Seriously though, I'm a total peacenik and I don't want escalation. Just like Putin's mobilization decree is an admission that Russia is losing, a radical change in western policy like a no-fly-zone or sending troops would be an admission of failure on our part, and would just embolden Putin, and not really be that effective to be honest. So what's the alternative, except to do what we're doing now, but faster and with more resolve?
 
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