Russian Invasion of Ukraine - tactics and logistics

[Loren Pechtel]

Chaos would happen, but I'm fairly certain it would be the only bomb used, at least for a while. Russia might populate most of their border with such protestor troops held on the line at gunpoint, and then just nuke any force that tries the border as they get delayed by the line of scrimmage.

It's Scorched Earth 2.0.

Would the rest of the world really nuke Russian civilians?

I don't think we would.

While I agree we wouldn't invade that doesn't mean we wouldn't respond. Firing our arsenal of cruise missiles at industrial and logistical targets could make the current Russian economy look stellar by comparison and wouldn't require an invasion. It wouldn't even need to kill very many--do it like Israel, give them enough warning to evacuate. (And there's no need to wait until the last minute as Russia isn't going to pile human shields on the target--especially as a cruise missile won't even see them and thus they would have no deterrent value.)

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[ZiprHead]

Fortune Russia's economy will 'die by winter' because of military mobilization

Now, Russian economist Vladislav Inozemtsev, the director of Moscow-based think tank the Center for Research on Post-Industrial Studies, is warning that Putin’s mobilization will have “truly catastrophic consequences,” including the death of the Russian economy and the downfall of Putin’s regime.

“The Russian economy is going to die by winter, I wrote in early March. Now I think I was right. The mobilization announced on Sept. 21 was a milestone that really divided Russian history into ‘before’ and ‘after’—an event that began the final countdown of Putin’s era,” the economist wrote on Sunday for Russian publication The Insider.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Jayjay]

Putin claims this is war against NATO... while withdrawing troops away from NATO borders.

 

[Copernicus]

This article from the anti-Putin Moscow Times gives details on how some of the mobilized men are being deployed in haphazard fashion to Ukraine. One man claims that he would be shipped to Kherson on September 29. It isn't at all clear, though, what is going to happen. The mobilization looks extremely chaotic.

Russia to Send Conscripts to Ukraine With Little Training, Old Equipment​

 

[TV and credit cards]

I’m starting to question if this mobilization is going to actually happen in any substantial way. Many that are being given their notice to report are eventually being turned away. It seems the recruiters are just throwing warm bodies to meet their quotas regardless of their qualification.
And I’ll bet the situation is so dire on the front lines that these recruits are being moved piecemeal to the front in an effort to staunch the losses. So from this, I think there will be nothing along the lines of a counteroffensive by Russia. There won’t be time to group anything significant together.

The situation might be unfolding fast in the east after the fall of Lyman. It doesn’t look like Russia can lend much support there and is more concerned with the Kherson region. And here they are slowly loosing ground too.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin propaganda machine is taking on a voice of its own by putting out more of the truth the Russian milbloggers are reporting. The milbloggers put out the losses Russia is suffering while also pushing for MoD to do the impossible, actually make advances. After they tire of pointing the finger at the MoD, they’ll start to look toward Putin.
This could get real damn dangerous if the Putin regime collapses during the war. What fills the void?

Very good write up in ISW today.
Recommended reading: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-2

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I’m starting to question if this mobilization is going to actually happen in any substantial way. Many that are being given their notice to report are eventually being turned away. It seems the recruiters are just throwing warm bodies to meet their quotas regardless of their qualification.
And I’ll bet the situation is so dire on the front lines that these recruits are being moved piecemeal to the front in an effort to staunch the losses. So from this, I think there will be nothing along the lines of a counteroffensive by Russia. There won’t be time to group anything significant together.

This. It's the usual flaw of non-open systems: It's much more important to follow the orders than do anything useful. We've seen it in China's reaction to Omicron,, we see it in Putin's reaction to the failures in Ukraine.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Ukrainian forces are clearing out Russian forces nicely around both Lyman and in the south. Ukrainian forces have broken through in the south along the west bank of the Dnipro and will sweep down, clearing out Russian forces.
ISW calls these the remnants of Russia’s “elite” fighting force. I suppose compared to anything else Russia can put on the field of battle, they are elite. Personally I’d use the word “experienced”.
Conventionally it looks like Russia has nothing left to fight with. Ukrainian advances will be as inhibited by terrain and their ability to properly secure gained territory as they will by Russian armed forces. This mobilization seems pointless. Throwing a bunch of untrained kids out there with nothing more than a gun and whatever they brought from home with them is akin to putting me on an NBA court. Pathetic.
Meanwhile back in Russia, mobilization does not go well. The Kremlin is cracking down on military recruiters not following the rules of enlistment while still demanding they meet their quotas. Problem is, those who haven’t hightailed it out of Russia are staying home and not answering the door. I reckon they’re going to have to get creative: “pizza delivery”, “Publishers Clearinghouse”, or whatever might serve in Russia to get someone to answer the door.
And the nationalists are still screaming on Telegram and it continue to bleeds over into state controlled media. If you can even call it that any longer. They’re calling for results on the battlefield. Close to impossible now. They’re calling for a change in leadership in the Defense Ministry. Is there anyone left to replace them with? Besides, the problem isn’t so much the people as it is the cancer riddled system. See, that’s the problem with nationalists. You’ve got their brains all wrapped around your propaganda and now they think you should be able to deliver the impossible. You getting any of this, Barbos?

My concern is the future of Russia and should Putin be given an exit. Can any face be saved at this point? I don’t see it. My concern is what might replace Putin. My concern is the use of nonconventional weapons.

 

[ZiprHead]

Stuff

www.stuff.co.nz

Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to demonstrate his willingness to use weapons of mass destruction with a nuclear test on Ukraine's borders, Nato is believed to have warned its members.

The Kremlin has been signalling its readiness for a significant escalation as Russia loses ground on the battlefield.

Fears over Putin's earlier hints that he might resort to such tactics heightened on Monday with claims that a train operated by the secretive nuclear division was destined for Ukraine.

Konrad Muzyka, a Poland-based defence analyst, said the train, spotted in central Russia, was linked to the 12th main directorate of the Russian ministry of defence and that it was "responsible for nuclear munitions, their storage, maintenance, transport, and issuance to units".

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

They’re calling for a change in leadership in the Defense Ministry. Is there anyone left to replace them with? Besides, the problem isn’t so much the people as it is the cancer riddled system.

When for so long you've surrounded yourself with yes men who get paid to be yes men eventually the chickens come home to roost when you actually need people to do something necessary. You're right, I wonder if the system is reparable or is going to completely disintegrate. There are lots of people within Russia who do "get it," but don't want to spend their lives in prison. It's a sad state.

Russian TV Hosts Urge Return to 'Freedom,' Throw Top Brass Under the Bus

"The war will end sooner or later. Better sooner," Popov wrote on Twitter, failing to comply with Moscow's directions to call the full-scale invasion of Ukraine a "special military operation."

"It's no coincidence that Putin has expressed willingness to negotiate. But we all must think about how we will carry on living. Without Western technologies and equipment, without euros and dollars, with an iron curtain, which is about to fall on the Western border. FOR A LONG TIME," Popov wrote, in possibly the most scalding criticism of Russian leadership coming from a known Putin ally.

Popov also talked about how to help the Russian economy hurt by Western sanctions.

"To help [small businesses] stimulus is required and it won't be too costly. We just need to get out of their way. We don't have just one regulatory "guillotine", we have an army of them. We need full and all-encompassing deregulation," he wrote.

"And one more thing. To continue our development in the new normal, after the fighting stops, we will have to 'loosen the screws' of the wartime. Bring back true freedom to gather, freedom of speech, freedom to unionize. And the key thing: to reform the judicial system, to bury forever the "phone privileges" [a reference to judges taking their orders from the Kremlin or influential people], and swap the stick for the carrot. Then we will be victorious."

 

[TV and credit cards]

Stuff

www.stuff.co.nz

Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to demonstrate his willingness to use weapons of mass destruction with a nuclear test on Ukraine's borders, Nato is believed to have warned its members.

The Kremlin has been signalling its readiness for a significant escalation as Russia loses ground on the battlefield.

Fears over Putin's earlier hints that he might resort to such tactics heightened on Monday with claims that a train operated by the secretive nuclear division was destined for Ukraine.

Konrad Muzyka, a Poland-based defence analyst, said the train, spotted in central Russia, was linked to the 12th main directorate of the Russian ministry of defence and that it was "responsible for nuclear munitions, their storage, maintenance, transport, and issuance to units".

Definitely time for China to voice their opinion.

 

[Copernicus]

Stuff

www.stuff.co.nz

Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to demonstrate his willingness to use weapons of mass destruction with a nuclear test on Ukraine's borders, Nato is believed to have warned its members.

The Kremlin has been signalling its readiness for a significant escalation as Russia loses ground on the battlefield.

Fears over Putin's earlier hints that he might resort to such tactics heightened on Monday with claims that a train operated by the secretive nuclear division was destined for Ukraine.

Konrad Muzyka, a Poland-based defence analyst, said the train, spotted in central Russia, was linked to the 12th main directorate of the Russian ministry of defence and that it was "responsible for nuclear munitions, their storage, maintenance, transport, and issuance to units".

Definitely time for China to voice their opinion.

Putin did not make a rational decision when he decided to invade Ukraine, and he has compounded that mistake repeatedly since 2014. Now he is so desperate that he is on the brink of making an even worse irrational decision. He is still convinced that he can bully Ukraine and the rest of the world into submission, placing his own personal survival ahead of everyone else's. A cornered rat with nuclear weapons.

What’s Putin thinking? Tough to know for nuclear analysts​

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Stuff

www.stuff.co.nz

Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to demonstrate his willingness to use weapons of mass destruction with a nuclear test on Ukraine's borders, Nato is believed to have warned its members.

The Kremlin has been signalling its readiness for a significant escalation as Russia loses ground on the battlefield.

Fears over Putin's earlier hints that he might resort to such tactics heightened on Monday with claims that a train operated by the secretive nuclear division was destined for Ukraine.

Konrad Muzyka, a Poland-based defence analyst, said the train, spotted in central Russia, was linked to the 12th main directorate of the Russian ministry of defence and that it was "responsible for nuclear munitions, their storage, maintenance, transport, and issuance to units".

Definitely time for China to voice their opinion.

Putin did not make a rational decision when he decided to invade Ukraine, and he has compounded that mistake repeatedly since 2014. Now he is so desperate that he is on the brink of making an even worse irrational decision. He is still convinced that he can bully Ukraine and the rest of the world into submission, placing his own personal survival ahead of everyone else's. A cornered rat with nuclear weapons.

What’s Putin thinking? Tough to know for nuclear analysts​

Good article. It is indeed, as you stated, about Putin's "personal survival." How far this maniac goes ultimately depends on what happens in Russia, not in the west.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Navalny's team relaunches its network of headquarters to “fight Putin, the war, and mobilization”

Those who choose to join will be able to pick between “raising awareness, offering legal assistance, designing leaflets, sabotaging the work of government websites or military enlistment offices”, some of which “burn really well”, the announcement reads.

 

[TV and credit cards]

On the southern front, Russian forces have been driven south to regroup in Mylove, about 100 km up river from Kherson. These poor sods have next to no support on the west bank of the Dnipro. They will easily be driven further south to Kherson, the next point of humiliation for Mother Russia.
And in the east, Ukrainian forces are moving toward Svatove, another logistically important city.

How will Putin react? He must know this is a lost cause. The nationalists are fragmented on next move. Some want to go nuclear. Some want full mobilization. Others are wrapped around the propaganda axle, thinking they just need the right people in the right jobs to get this done. Is there a rational faction in Russia or are they all abroad now?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Putin was up $5000 at the table. Then he was dealt Ace King of spades, thought it was a great hand and opened big. Ukraine didn't back off. Now there are four numbered diamonds on the table, Ukraine has a flush... and Putin is still betting big because he is in too deep now and looking at a pretty big loss if he just leaves. Had he left before the hand, he'd have had $5000 more and a slice of Eastern Ukraine. He is now hoping to bet his way out of this and finished with a chunk of Ukraine in hand after Zelensky gives up. The only trouble here is that the poker metaphor doesn't include tens of thousands dying in a single tactical civilian strike when Ukraine doesn't give up.

Russia has never fought this as hard as they could. They could decimate Ukraine if they wanted. Conventionally. Not much value inheriting a decimated territory though.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

On the southern front, Russian forces have been driven south to regroup in Mylove, about 100 km up river from Kherson. These poor sods have next to no support on the west bank of the Dnipro. They will easily be driven further south to Kherson, the next point of humiliation for Mother Russia.
And in the east, Ukrainian forces are moving toward Svatove, another logistically important city.

How will Putin react? He must know this is a lost cause. The nationalists are fragmented on next move. Some want to go nuclear. Some want full mobilization. Others are wrapped around the propaganda axle, thinking they just need the right people in the right jobs to get this done. Is there a rational faction in Russia or are they all abroad now?

Some reports I've read have the Russians doing a lot of shelling and making missile strikes on targets behind the front lines, on infrastructure. They seem to be imitating the Ukrainian tactic of destroying targets behind the front lines to disrupt supply and communication. The problem is they are not hitting military targets. Are they that inept, do they just not have the right intel, are they just launching ordnance and munitions thinking that eventually everything downrange is going to be dead? It's hard to believe they are that incompetent but observations seem to indicate just that. They are still fighting like they did in WW2, bombard, bombard, bombard. If the Ukraine military had been as capable eight months ago as it is today the Ruskis would have had their asses handed to them.

 

[TV and credit cards]

On the southern front, Russian forces have been driven south to regroup in Mylove, about 100 km up river from Kherson. These poor sods have next to no support on the west bank of the Dnipro. They will easily be driven further south to Kherson, the next point of humiliation for Mother Russia.
And in the east, Ukrainian forces are moving toward Svatove, another logistically important city.

How will Putin react? He must know this is a lost cause. The nationalists are fragmented on next move. Some want to go nuclear. Some want full mobilization. Others are wrapped around the propaganda axle, thinking they just need the right people in the right jobs to get this done. Is there a rational faction in Russia or are they all abroad now?

Some reports I've read have the Russians doing a lot of shelling and making missile strikes on targets behind the front lines, on infrastructure. They seem to be imitating the Ukrainian tactic of destroying targets behind the front lines to disrupt supply and communication. The problem is they are not hitting military targets. Are they that inept, do they just not have the right intel, are they just launching ordnance and munitions thinking that eventually everything downrange is going to be dead? It's hard to believe they are that incompetent but observations seem to indicate just that. They are still fighting like they did in WW2, bombard, bombard, bombard. If the Ukraine military had been as capable eight months ago as it is today the Ruskis would have had their asses handed to them.

Ukraine is too tight with the information, and rightly so. Loose lips and all. Russia is hitting targets they know exist: mostly civilian infrastructure. Ukraine, I assume is getting intel from western sources and pinpointing it with their drones. What the US, Brits might have high in the sky looking down, I do not know.
I did read in this latest weapons package is 500 M982 Excalibur artillery shells. Looks like something good for cleaning up around cities or maybe a nuclear plant. Friendlies can be as close as 75 meters to target.

 

[TV and credit cards]

What a $100,000 Russian drone is made of

The Ukrainians shot a video of the “unpacking” of one of the Orlans they captured. That’s how the world found out that the drone, which costs around $100,000 apiece, has a Canon camera attached by sticky tape instead of special imaging equipment, and an ordinary plastic bottle instead of a fuel tank.

Watch the video.



https://theins.ru/en/politics/255724