While I agree we wouldn't invade that doesn't mean we wouldn't respond. Firing our arsenal of cruise missiles at industrial and logistical targets could make the current Russian economy look stellar by comparison and wouldn't require an invasion. It wouldn't even need to kill very many--do it like Israel, give them enough warning to evacuate. (And there's no need to wait until the last minute as Russia isn't going to pile human shields on the target--especially as a cruise missile won't even see them and thus they would have no deterrent value.)
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Russian Invasion of Ukraine - tactics and logistics
- Thread starter Rhea
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Copernicus
Industrial Grade Linguist
This article from the anti-Putin Moscow Times gives details on how some of the mobilized men are being deployed in haphazard fashion to Ukraine. One man claims that he would be shipped to Kherson on September 29. It isn't at all clear, though, what is going to happen. The mobilization looks extremely chaotic.
Russia to Send Conscripts to Ukraine With Little Training, Old Equipment
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I’m starting to question if this mobilization is going to actually happen in any substantial way. Many that are being given their notice to report are eventually being turned away. It seems the recruiters are just throwing warm bodies to meet their quotas regardless of their qualification.
And I’ll bet the situation is so dire on the front lines that these recruits are being moved piecemeal to the front in an effort to staunch the losses. So from this, I think there will be nothing along the lines of a counteroffensive by Russia. There won’t be time to group anything significant together.
The situation might be unfolding fast in the east after the fall of Lyman. It doesn’t look like Russia can lend much support there and is more concerned with the Kherson region. And here they are slowly loosing ground too.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin propaganda machine is taking on a voice of its own by putting out more of the truth the Russian milbloggers are reporting. The milbloggers put out the losses Russia is suffering while also pushing for MoD to do the impossible, actually make advances. After they tire of pointing the finger at the MoD, they’ll start to look toward Putin.
This could get real damn dangerous if the Putin regime collapses during the war. What fills the void?
Very good write up in ISW today.
Recommended reading: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-2
And I’ll bet the situation is so dire on the front lines that these recruits are being moved piecemeal to the front in an effort to staunch the losses. So from this, I think there will be nothing along the lines of a counteroffensive by Russia. There won’t be time to group anything significant together.
The situation might be unfolding fast in the east after the fall of Lyman. It doesn’t look like Russia can lend much support there and is more concerned with the Kherson region. And here they are slowly loosing ground too.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin propaganda machine is taking on a voice of its own by putting out more of the truth the Russian milbloggers are reporting. The milbloggers put out the losses Russia is suffering while also pushing for MoD to do the impossible, actually make advances. After they tire of pointing the finger at the MoD, they’ll start to look toward Putin.
This could get real damn dangerous if the Putin regime collapses during the war. What fills the void?
Very good write up in ISW today.
Recommended reading: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-2
This. It's the usual flaw of non-open systems: It's much more important to follow the orders than do anything useful. We've seen it in China's reaction to Omicron,, we see it in Putin's reaction to the failures in Ukraine.
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Ukrainian forces are clearing out Russian forces nicely around both Lyman and in the south. Ukrainian forces have broken through in the south along the west bank of the Dnipro and will sweep down, clearing out Russian forces.
ISW calls these the remnants of Russia’s “elite” fighting force. I suppose compared to anything else Russia can put on the field of battle, they are elite. Personally I’d use the word “experienced”.
Conventionally it looks like Russia has nothing left to fight with. Ukrainian advances will be as inhibited by terrain and their ability to properly secure gained territory as they will by Russian armed forces. This mobilization seems pointless. Throwing a bunch of untrained kids out there with nothing more than a gun and whatever they brought from home with them is akin to putting me on an NBA court. Pathetic.
Meanwhile back in Russia, mobilization does not go well. The Kremlin is cracking down on military recruiters not following the rules of enlistment while still demanding they meet their quotas. Problem is, those who haven’t hightailed it out of Russia are staying home and not answering the door. I reckon they’re going to have to get creative: “pizza delivery”, “Publishers Clearinghouse”, or whatever might serve in Russia to get someone to answer the door.
And the nationalists are still screaming on Telegram and it continue to bleeds over into state controlled media. If you can even call it that any longer. They’re calling for results on the battlefield. Close to impossible now. They’re calling for a change in leadership in the Defense Ministry. Is there anyone left to replace them with? Besides, the problem isn’t so much the people as it is the cancer riddled system. See, that’s the problem with nationalists. You’ve got their brains all wrapped around your propaganda and now they think you should be able to deliver the impossible. You getting any of this, Barbos?
My concern is the future of Russia and should Putin be given an exit. Can any face be saved at this point? I don’t see it. My concern is what might replace Putin. My concern is the use of nonconventional weapons.
ISW calls these the remnants of Russia’s “elite” fighting force. I suppose compared to anything else Russia can put on the field of battle, they are elite. Personally I’d use the word “experienced”.
Conventionally it looks like Russia has nothing left to fight with. Ukrainian advances will be as inhibited by terrain and their ability to properly secure gained territory as they will by Russian armed forces. This mobilization seems pointless. Throwing a bunch of untrained kids out there with nothing more than a gun and whatever they brought from home with them is akin to putting me on an NBA court. Pathetic.
Meanwhile back in Russia, mobilization does not go well. The Kremlin is cracking down on military recruiters not following the rules of enlistment while still demanding they meet their quotas. Problem is, those who haven’t hightailed it out of Russia are staying home and not answering the door. I reckon they’re going to have to get creative: “pizza delivery”, “Publishers Clearinghouse”, or whatever might serve in Russia to get someone to answer the door.
And the nationalists are still screaming on Telegram and it continue to bleeds over into state controlled media. If you can even call it that any longer. They’re calling for results on the battlefield. Close to impossible now. They’re calling for a change in leadership in the Defense Ministry. Is there anyone left to replace them with? Besides, the problem isn’t so much the people as it is the cancer riddled system. See, that’s the problem with nationalists. You’ve got their brains all wrapped around your propaganda and now they think you should be able to deliver the impossible. You getting any of this, Barbos?
My concern is the future of Russia and should Putin be given an exit. Can any face be saved at this point? I don’t see it. My concern is what might replace Putin. My concern is the use of nonconventional weapons.
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Ukraine: Vladimir Putin lines up his nuclear options
The Russian president is set to demonstrate his willingness to use weapons of mass destruction with a nuclear test on Ukraine's borders, Nato is believed to be warning.
www.stuff.co.nz
T.G.G. Moogly
Traditional Atheist
When for so long you've surrounded yourself with yes men who get paid to be yes men eventually the chickens come home to roost when you actually need people to do something necessary. You're right, I wonder if the system is reparable or is going to completely disintegrate. There are lots of people within Russia who do "get it," but don't want to spend their lives in prison. It's a sad state.
Russian TV Hosts Urge Return to 'Freedom,' Throw Top Brass Under the Bus
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Definitely time for China to voice their opinion.Ukraine: Vladimir Putin lines up his nuclear options
The Russian president is set to demonstrate his willingness to use weapons of mass destruction with a nuclear test on Ukraine's borders, Nato is believed to be warning.
Copernicus
Industrial Grade Linguist
Definitely time for China to voice their opinion.Ukraine: Vladimir Putin lines up his nuclear options
The Russian president is set to demonstrate his willingness to use weapons of mass destruction with a nuclear test on Ukraine's borders, Nato is believed to be warning.
Putin did not make a rational decision when he decided to invade Ukraine, and he has compounded that mistake repeatedly since 2014. Now he is so desperate that he is on the brink of making an even worse irrational decision. He is still convinced that he can bully Ukraine and the rest of the world into submission, placing his own personal survival ahead of everyone else's. A cornered rat with nuclear weapons.
What’s Putin thinking? Tough to know for nuclear analysts
T.G.G. Moogly
Traditional Atheist
Good article. It is indeed, as you stated, about Putin's "personal survival." How far this maniac goes ultimately depends on what happens in Russia, not in the west.Definitely time for China to voice their opinion.Ukraine: Vladimir Putin lines up his nuclear options
The Russian president is set to demonstrate his willingness to use weapons of mass destruction with a nuclear test on Ukraine's borders, Nato is believed to be warning.
Putin did not make a rational decision when he decided to invade Ukraine, and he has compounded that mistake repeatedly since 2014. Now he is so desperate that he is on the brink of making an even worse irrational decision. He is still convinced that he can bully Ukraine and the rest of the world into submission, placing his own personal survival ahead of everyone else's. A cornered rat with nuclear weapons.
What’s Putin thinking? Tough to know for nuclear analysts
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Navalny's team relaunches its network of headquarters to “fight Putin, the war, and mobilization”
Those who choose to join will be able to pick between “raising awareness, offering legal assistance, designing leaflets, sabotaging the work of government websites or military enlistment offices”, some of which “burn really well”, the announcement reads.
Those who choose to join will be able to pick between “raising awareness, offering legal assistance, designing leaflets, sabotaging the work of government websites or military enlistment offices”, some of which “burn really well”, the announcement reads.
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On the southern front, Russian forces have been driven south to regroup in Mylove, about 100 km up river from Kherson. These poor sods have next to no support on the west bank of the Dnipro. They will easily be driven further south to Kherson, the next point of humiliation for Mother Russia.
And in the east, Ukrainian forces are moving toward Svatove, another logistically important city.
How will Putin react? He must know this is a lost cause. The nationalists are fragmented on next move. Some want to go nuclear. Some want full mobilization. Others are wrapped around the propaganda axle, thinking they just need the right people in the right jobs to get this done. Is there a rational faction in Russia or are they all abroad now?
And in the east, Ukrainian forces are moving toward Svatove, another logistically important city.
How will Putin react? He must know this is a lost cause. The nationalists are fragmented on next move. Some want to go nuclear. Some want full mobilization. Others are wrapped around the propaganda axle, thinking they just need the right people in the right jobs to get this done. Is there a rational faction in Russia or are they all abroad now?
Jimmy Higgins
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Putin was up $5000 at the table. Then he was dealt Ace King of spades, thought it was a great hand and opened big. Ukraine didn't back off. Now there are four numbered diamonds on the table, Ukraine has a flush... and Putin is still betting big because he is in too deep now and looking at a pretty big loss if he just leaves. Had he left before the hand, he'd have had $5000 more and a slice of Eastern Ukraine. He is now hoping to bet his way out of this and finished with a chunk of Ukraine in hand after Zelensky gives up. The only trouble here is that the poker metaphor doesn't include tens of thousands dying in a single tactical civilian strike when Ukraine doesn't give up.
Russia has never fought this as hard as they could. They could decimate Ukraine if they wanted. Conventionally. Not much value inheriting a decimated territory though.
Russia has never fought this as hard as they could. They could decimate Ukraine if they wanted. Conventionally. Not much value inheriting a decimated territory though.
T.G.G. Moogly
Traditional Atheist
Some reports I've read have the Russians doing a lot of shelling and making missile strikes on targets behind the front lines, on infrastructure. They seem to be imitating the Ukrainian tactic of destroying targets behind the front lines to disrupt supply and communication. The problem is they are not hitting military targets. Are they that inept, do they just not have the right intel, are they just launching ordnance and munitions thinking that eventually everything downrange is going to be dead? It's hard to believe they are that incompetent but observations seem to indicate just that. They are still fighting like they did in WW2, bombard, bombard, bombard. If the Ukraine military had been as capable eight months ago as it is today the Ruskis would have had their asses handed to them.
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Ukraine is too tight with the information, and rightly so. Loose lips and all. Russia is hitting targets they know exist: mostly civilian infrastructure. Ukraine, I assume is getting intel from western sources and pinpointing it with their drones. What the US, Brits might have high in the sky looking down, I do not know.
I did read in this latest weapons package is 500 M982 Excalibur artillery shells. Looks like something good for cleaning up around cities or maybe a nuclear plant. Friendlies can be as close as 75 meters to target.
