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Russian Invasion of Ukraine - tactics and logistics

Putin is starting to take off the gloves. Will need to suggest most of Ukraine are Nazis now to justify these attacks.

article said:
“In the event of continued Ukrainian acts of terrorism on Russian territory, our response will be harsh and in terms of its scale will correspond to the level of threats,” Putin said.
Yes... in response to an attack on a bridge that was infrastructure, Russia attacked and killed Ukrainians.
It's obvious that these hits in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia are pure reprisals. Putin thinks that by killing civilians, Ukraine will think twice next time.

But the problem is that Russia has been killing civilians anyway since February. Monday morning's attacks were a spike in the trend, but not something that will fundamentally do anything other than piss Ukraine off even more. Threats become hollow if you don't carry them out, but they're also hollow if what you can't be trusted not to do what you're threatening with if your demands are met.
 

I read about this early in the war.

Basically they spot a missile in a radar and see it's trajectory. They warn the guy with a MANPAD on the route that missile is incoming, so they take position and wait for it. Sometimes they hit their target, sometimes not. In this case I guess they were lucky. A cruise missile is slow enough that it can be hit with a rocket designed for airplanes.

A proper air defence with integrated SAM batteries and radars would of course be better, but this is what you do if you don't have that everywhere.
 

I read about this early in the war.

Basically they spot a missile in a radar and see it's trajectory. They warn the guy with a MANPAD on the route that missile is incoming, so they take position and wait for it. Sometimes they hit their target, sometimes not. In this case I guess they were lucky. A cruise missile is slow enough that it can be hit with a rocket designed for airplanes.

A proper air defence with integrated SAM batteries and radars would of course be better, but this is what you do if you don't have that everywhere.

And a manpad is much cheaper, also. The Russian missiles fly way too high for safety against such attacks, if there's somebody in their path they're a reasonably easy kill. The hard part is the short engagement envelope of manpads--you can't kill a missile that doesn't pretty much parade itself in front of you.
 
Putin thinks that by killing civilians, Ukraine will think twice next time.
Since pretty much forever, military commanders have subscribed to the doctrine that attacks on civilians will demoralize the enemy, make his fighting forces less effective, and increase the chances of him deciding to throw in the towel.

That the exact opposite has been observed to occur, every single time that this has been attempted, in wars spanning the entire planet, and at least the last three thousand years, doesn't appear to phase them.

It's bound to work this time, right?
 
Putin thinks that by killing civilians, Ukraine will think twice next time.
Since pretty much forever, military commanders have subscribed to the doctrine that attacks on civilians will demoralize the enemy, make his fighting forces less effective, and increase the chances of him deciding to throw in the towel.

That the exact opposite has been observed to occur, every single time that this has been attempted, in wars spanning the entire planet, and at least the last three thousand years, doesn't appear to phase them.

It's bound to work this time, right?
1944/5

rohzucker02.jpg


"You can break our walls, but not our hearts."

In the end there were not enough walls left to continue fighting.

Aerial_photograph_of_Darmstadt_west_view.jpg


I was born in this town almost nine years after 226 Lancasters and 14 Mosquitos paid it a flying visit.
Royal Air Force Bomber Command 60th Anniversary Campaign Diary for September 1944 states:

The Darmstadt raid, with its extensive fire destruction and its heavy casualties, was held by the Germans to be an extreme example of RAF 'terror bombing' and remains a sensitive subject because of the claimed absence of any major industries in the city. Bomber Command defended the raid by pointing out the railway communications passing through Darmstadt; the directive for the offensive against German communications had not yet been issued to Bomber Command, although advance notice of the directive may have been received. Darmstadt was simply one of Germany's medium-sized cities of lesser importance which succumbed to Bomber Command's improving area-attack techniques in the last months of the war when many of the larger cities were no longer worth bombing.
Russia does not have the hardware to inflict wholesale destruction (unless Putin decides on MAD) so it attempts to terrorise Ukraine's civilian population piecemeal.
 
Russia does not have the hardware to inflict wholesale destruction (unless Putin decides on MAD) so it attempts to terrorise Ukraine's civilian population piecemeal.
For all his advantages, NATO's support of Ukraine puts Adolph Putin in a bind. If Russia's Hitler unleashes a bomber force Ukraine will receive more sophisticated air defense hardware. They need something more sophisticated like Iron Dome to take down missiles. Poostain doesn't have enough really techy ordnance if Ukraine can systematically shoot down missiles and aircraft.
 
Exclusive: U.S. assesses up to 60% failure rate for some Russian missiles, officials say | Reuters
The United States assesses that Russia is suffering failure rates as high as 60% for some of the precision-guided missiles it is using to attack Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of the intelligence told Reuters.

The disclosure could help explain why Russia has failed to achieve what most could consider basic objectives since its invasion a month ago, such as neutralizing Ukraine's air force, despite the apparent strength of its military against Ukraine's much smaller armed forces.

Volodymyr Dacenko on Twitter: "Comparison of Russian and Ukrainian attack schemes: ..." / Twitter
Comparison of Russian and Ukrainian attack schemes:

I decided to compare the offensive of Russia in the spring and the counteroffensive of Ukraine in September in order to understand the reasons for such different results.

From the very beginning of the war, Russia built its offensive operations along the main highways and key population centers. This is understandable because the Russian offensive relied primarily on heavily armored vehicles. In this war we saw tank columns trying to storm a city without any infantry, air, or artillery cover. Which is an absolutely failed strategy. This led to the fact that tank columns were ambushed. Large forces could be blocked in narrow directions, as we saw near Kyiv, where a column of equipment stretched for tens of kilometers.

Since May, Russia has somewhat changed its tactics, increasingly using assault groups of light infantry (mainly mobilized in Luhansk and Donetsk). The task of which is to find a weak spot in the defense for further breakthroughs of the main forces. The attacks were accompanied by massive artillery fire. In May-June, Russia apparently reached the peak of the use of its artillery. At that time, the number of shots reached 50-65 thousand shells per day, if we rely on the data of the Ukrainian military. But the concept of the Russian attack remained unchanged. Russia moves from one settlement to another, moving along the main roads.

The disadvantage of this strategy is:
1) high military losses (because the Russians carry out a lot of assaults, most of which are unsuccessful);
2) high dependence on Soviet artillery, which requires intensive logistics and a large number of warehouses;
3) the slowness of the war (instead of one attack, the Russians have to repeat the same sequence with each subsequent city).

All this led to the fact that in July-August Russia no longer had enough forces to continue the massive offensive. In July, the Russians called it an "operational pause", but later the "pause" turned into a retreat and flight of Russian soldiers from Kharkiv Oblast.

Ukraine has built a completely different concept of attack. Many mobile groups move not on the main roads but on forest and steppe roads. These groups "fill the space" between Russian forces, cut supply routes and create the effect of a local encirclement. After breaking through the defensive line, the second offensive line attacks the Russian positions from different directions. This requires high coordination of actions and reliable communication in order to understand where one's own/someone else's is.

Russia has very poor intelligence and coordination. After the breakthrough of the defense line, the military command often does not understand the operational situation, receives information with a significant delay, and therefore makes many wrong decisions. Often, the Russian military retreats when they should rush into battle. And vice versa - they continue the fight when they should retreat. This leads to high military losses during the retreat.

Result:

Russia has a significant advantage in the number of armored vehicles and artillery, but this creates big problems for logistics. The Russian army needs a lot of fuel and ammunition. Because of this, the Russian army is "clumsy". Poor coordination, intelligence, and training of soldiers only worsen the situation.

The Ukrainian army is much more mobile and organized. Ukraine has better intelligence, which allows you to accurately assess the situation on the battlefield. But the insufficient number of armored vehicles leads to the fact that a large part of the army is made up of light infantry, which is unprotected from artillery fire (especially during the offensive).
 
Russia’s Draft Sends Barely Trained Men to War in Ukraine - The New York Times - "Newly mobilized recruits are already at the front in Ukraine, a growing chorus of reports says, fighting and dying after only days of training."
A half-dozen Russian soldiers talk about being shipped to an area of intense fighting in eastern Ukraine just 11 days after their mobilization. Asked about his shooting practice, a bearded conscript says, “Once. Three magazines.”

In a town near Yekaterinburg, in central Russia, newly mobilized men march in place in their street clothes. “No machine guns, nothing, no clothes, no shoes,” says an unidentified observer. “Half of them are hungover, old, at risk — the ambulance should be on duty.”

Elsewhere, scores of relatives of freshly drafted Russian soldiers crowd outside a training center, passing items through its fence to the recruits — boots, berets, bulletproof vests, backpacks, sleeping bags, camping mats, medicine, bandages and food.

“This is not how it’s done,” a woman named Elena told the news outlet Samara Online. “We buy everything.”

Despite draconian laws against criticizing the “special military operation” in Ukraine, Russian social media is awash with scenes like those above captured in widely circulating videos. Such posts are taking the Ministry of Defense to task for acting just as Western military experts predicted: rushing thousands of newly drafted, untrained, ill-equipped soldiers to Ukraine, too desperate to plug holes in its defensive lines to mold the men into cohesive units.
This seems like a repeat of World War I. Russia didn't do very well in it, large numbers of Russian soldiers deserted, and some of them mutinied. First World War.com - Primary Documents - Tsar Nicholas II Takes Command of Russian Armies, 5 September 1915
The Tsar's decision to assume command of the Russian Army was made in spite of virtually unanimous cabinet opposition; the latter correctly feared that any setbacks the Army suffered would necessarily reflect directly upon the Tsar himself.
Vladimir Putin is now doing much the same thing.

The Tsar ended up abdicating on 1917 March 15, and he was succeeded by the Provisional Government. But that government kept the war going until it was overthrown by the Bolsheviks on November 7 of that year, Bolsheviks who promised "Peace, Land, Bread". They soon made peace with the Central Powers, with an armistice on December 15, solidifying the deal on 1918 March 3 by giving away Finland, the Baltic states, Poland, most of Belarus, and Ukraine in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk.
 
A smaller-scale humiliation was experienced by Russia in 1905, when Russia lost the Russo-Japanese War. The two were fighting over being an imperialist in NW China, and Russia's strategists thought that their nation was the stronger one. But Japan delivered a crushing victory, one humiliating enough to provoke a revolution in Russia that year.

For Japan, it was a great morale boost. That nation had escaped colonial domination, in part by keeping out Western would-be imperialists. Japan kept a little bit of contact, and Japanese political and economic strategists noticed that the Western world was getting more and more advanced than their nation. The final straw was US Commodore Perry's demanding the opening up of Japan's ports for such things as coaling stations for refueling Western ships. That provoked the Meiji Restoration, with its crash modernization and catching up to the West. The Russo-Japanese War showed how successful that strategy was - giving a big defeat to a major Western power, and being the first non-Western nation to do so.
 
The Russo-Japanese War lasted 8 February 1904 – 5 September 1905, and during that war was a rather remarkable event.  Georgy Gapon was a Russian Orthodox priest, a workers-rights activist, and a police informant. He organized a march on the Tsar's Winter Palace in St. Petersburg in 1905 January 22. It was an appeal to the Tsar for better working conditions and the like, and the marchers had religious icons and sang songs like "God Save the Tsar!". Revolutionaries like the Bolsheviks didn't like it because of its lack of political aims and Father Gapon didn't like them either.

The day before, Tsar Nicholas II left for Tsarskoye Selo ("Tsar's Village"), a little south of St. Petersburg, and he ordered some 10,000 soldiers stationed at the Winter Palace for the march. The marchers arrived, and the soldiers attacked them, shooting them and trampling them.

The event was remembered as  Bloody Sunday (1905) and it put an end to the good-tsar myth, that the Tsar was good and only his underlings were bad.
 
The Japanese sank a significant part of the Russian Pacific Squadron at the Battle of Port Arthur.

Incensed by the temerity of the supposedly second-rate Japanese fleet, the Tsar sent his Baltic fleet on an epic six month voyage around the entire length of Asia and Europe (splitting his forces as some of the bigger battleships were too deep in the draught to pass through the Suez Canal, some also traversed the length of Africa), to teach them a lesson.

When it arrived, the Japanese promptly sank it, at the Battle of Tsushima.
 

And an hour and a half later, around lunch time, they sent us all to the firing ranges, and three of the Tajiks, who were on contract service, brought their automatic rifles, they had live ammunition, and shot our commander, Lieutenant Colonel Lapin, he died on the spot.

Two or three minutes before the shooting started, we Muslims were told to step aside. I remember the names of the shooters: Bikzot - he is a senior sergeant, another - Anushe, and a third - junior sergeant Ami. I don't remember their [sur]names. Junior sergeant Ami got away.

32 dropped in total. Yikes. Maybe some of that sensitivity training Ted Cruz and Matt Gaetz despise isn't really a bad thing for officers to have.

Then there is this charming "team building exercise"



I'm starting to think the Russian military isn't the professional competent outfit barbos would like us to believe.
 
Kherson is a different problem than Kharvik et al. The Ukrainians in the North practiced a military tactic callled a thunder run. Developed by the US Army in Iraq.
This involves an very well, motived, lead, and armed attack on enemy positions. A target is selected, say an airport, or important road juncture. One punches through poorly organized, lead, unmotivated soldiers, moving fast and destroying everything in the way. Until the target is reached. Several thunder runs take place concurrently.

This results in chaos, confusion, fear and poorly trained soldiers not having any idea of wghat is going on and what to do often, give up or flee completely routed. For the Ukrainians, it worked beautifully. Once the thunder run is over, drones and artillery deal with disorganized and demoralized targets of opportunity. Enemy forces are broken up and stubborn resisters, are simply cut off from supplies or reinforcements.

This cannot be done in Kherson because of natural barriers like the Dneiper river. Plus with their backs to the sea, Russian forces can't easily choose running for their lives in disorganized confusion. Getting numerous thunder run forces across the Dneiper, and massive follow up forces also is unlikely.

Thunder runs. Modern day blitzkrieg.
 
Another possible reason for the "evacuation" of Kherson:



Using the evacuees as human shields so Ukraine can't target the makeshift bridge.
 
Russian commanders are extorting money from soldiers in exchange for transfer to the rear.

 
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