Copernicus
Industrial Grade Linguist
Would you then admit that Trump is responsible for SOME of the deaths? If so, what percentage do you think that might be?
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Scientific American endorses Joe Biden
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Would you then admit that Trump is responsible for SOME of the deaths? If so, what percentage do you think that might be?
Yes, he is, but I am not an epidemiologist. There are simply so many unknowns and variables to "plug in", I wouldn't try to put a figure on it. Indeed, even before you tried any mathematical work, you'd have to agree on what 'responsibility' means and what the 'best possible scenario' means. e.g. -
* Do we use everything we know right now, or only information that was known and reasonable to have known at the time?
* What weight do we put on Trump's advisers? Is Trump ultimately responsible for selecting good advice from bad? If he'd followed every direction his experts gave him, would Trump's responsibility be zero? Or does it make no difference, since he selected his advisers?
* What weight do we put on Trump's personal behaviour? If some people chose not to wear masks because they saw Trump regularly without one, how do determine that number?
* Who do we compare Trump to? A counterfactual leader in Trump's position, like Clinton or Biden? Or leaders of other countries? Was there some as-close-to-perfect leader's actions that we can 'translate' to the American context? Or should we compare him to a 'composite' leader, who took the best actions possible displayed by any leader across the world?
* Do we distinguish 'needless' deaths from 'trade-off' deaths? Fewer people would have died if measures were more draconian than they actually are, if people had been more restricted, if travel was banned earlier, etc, etc. But the goal cannot be 'minimise deaths at all costs', because we don't do that for any disease.
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Sure. Let me see the paper you've written calculating the exact percentage of deaths Trump is responsible for, showing your work.
I'll wait.
Don2 (Don1 Revised)
Contributor
It's almost like we should read a whole article on this subject containing data and citations to the data and references to relevant policy. If only there were some kind of Scientific magazine available about American issues.
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Elixir
Made in America
As always, Meta sits there demanding that others do the work he is too lazy, too disinterest and/or too scared of the facts to undertake.
Your wait is over. Here's the deal with the top 5 most populated countries on the planet.
Outside of the USA, the average is less than 34 deaths per million. Inside the USA it's 617.
The principle difference is that the leadership of ALL those other countries recognized and communicated the seriousness of the pandemic to their populations. IOW, they had leadership - at least a little of it. What we had was the exact opposite of leadership. We had a conscientious effort by the Trump Crime Family to minimize, mislead and deny. That's why the Trump Virus is more than 34 times as likely to have killed you or a loved one if you are in Trumpistan than in any of the other top 5 countries.
The answer you are trying to avoid is:
just over 96%. or around 195,000 deaths. Best President since Pol Pot.
Your wait is over. Here's the deal with the top 5 most populated countries on the planet.
Outside of the USA, the average is less than 34 deaths per million. Inside the USA it's 617.
The principle difference is that the leadership of ALL those other countries recognized and communicated the seriousness of the pandemic to their populations. IOW, they had leadership - at least a little of it. What we had was the exact opposite of leadership. We had a conscientious effort by the Trump Crime Family to minimize, mislead and deny. That's why the Trump Virus is more than 34 times as likely to have killed you or a loved one if you are in Trumpistan than in any of the other top 5 countries.
The answer you are trying to avoid is:
just over 96%. or around 195,000 deaths. Best President since Pol Pot.
No. I fucking did not. Someone demanded I make a guess about what percentage, or number, of deaths Trump was responsible for. I listed some of the reasons that I declined to do that, because my guess would be marred by too many unknown values.
When I made the reasons for offering no estimate (which I'm not obliged to do, except I know the answer is not '100% of COVID-19 deaths in America', ZiprHead posted an insulting meme indicating I was 'reaching' with my explanation, as if I had any fucking obligation to do so in the first place.
This is a breathtakingly poor effort. You've literally controlled for nothing.
Firstly, this isn't breathtaking. No one suffered respiratory problems Because of Elixir's post. Flasehood #1
Secondly, "Literally controlled for nothing" is quite simply incorrect. That you casually dismissed Eilixir's calculations doesn't mean they don't exist. Something is larger than nothing. The calculations are there for anyone to interpret.
Because of these two discrepancies I feel completely justified in dismissing all you arguments as trite.
If you think my conclusion is petty infantile and asinine, well I agree. I'd suggest some self reflection, but you do you.
Elixir
Made in America
So... you have no response other than a generic, repetitive "NO GOOD!" judgment based on your own inability to deal with the facts.
Nice.
Stupid, but illustrative.
I did.
What "arguments"? Are you talking about the reasons I laid out for not guessing what percentage of COVID-19 deaths that a 'perfect response' world leader could have prevented?
Elixir controlled nothing. "Controlled for" is a statistical term and Elixir didn't do it.
Copernicus
Industrial Grade Linguist
I merely asked for your opinion, but what I see here is that you have some vague idea that he is responsible for some deaths and no opinion about the size or scope of his responsibility. In fact, you don't seem motivated to even make a stab at it. I'll give you my response to your bullet items:
- We use everything we know now. Bear in mind that we know now some things about what he knew then that he did not tell us he knew then.
- Trump's advisers are merely advisers. He alone is responsible for his decisions.
- The actual number of people Trump inspires not to wear masks is irrelevant. That he is inspiring them not to wear masks at all, apparently in direct defiance of the consensus of medical experts, is relevant. In fact, it is reasonable to assume that his efforts in this area are part of what makes him responsible for quite a few illnesses and deaths.
- We should compare Trump to other world leaders, because those are his peers. However, that is irrelevant, unless you are grading on a curve. They could all be as reckless and irresponsible. It turns out that they aren't, but we really ought to judge Trump on his own merits or lack thereof.
- Cost-benefit analyses are relevant, but I don't see you even attempting to make one. You are calling for other people to do that instead.
Seriously, I do not care whether you have an exact number of deaths that you think Trump is responsible for. If you are going to say he is responsible for some, then you ought to at least have the courage to elaborate on why you believe that and what you think the scope of his responsibility is. It's OK if people disagree with you. This is a discussion board in which people can have honest disagreements.
Don2 (Don1 Revised)
Contributor
By December, projections are we will lose another 60-70K people because of not wearing masks. Whose fault will this be?
If Trump were to begin a campaign of mask wearing and telling cultists to wear masks constantly, the vast majority of those deaths would not occur. He said once that mask wearing could be patriotic but then he's backed off from promoting it and it just doesn't undo all the other shit he did. He could seriously change the game on this.
So, how much blame should he take on?
Do we even need a specific number to declare rationally, "HOLY FUCK! VOTE FOR BIDEN?"
If Trump were to begin a campaign of mask wearing and telling cultists to wear masks constantly, the vast majority of those deaths would not occur. He said once that mask wearing could be patriotic but then he's backed off from promoting it and it just doesn't undo all the other shit he did. He could seriously change the game on this.
So, how much blame should he take on?
Do we even need a specific number to declare rationally, "HOLY FUCK! VOTE FOR BIDEN?"
Keith&Co.
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Well, that's polite. He's MOCKED mask wearing. Portrayed it as a sign of weakness.
And conservatives tend to show their strength by displaying their hatred of weakness.
Treedbear
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I thought I'd offered a pretty good deal by giving him credit for just 10,000 deaths.
The thing is Trump talks shit about how great he is all the time. And then when the news media or others start pointing out how it's just plain false or grossly exaggerated his supporters say everyone's out to get him while ignoring all the good that he's accomplished. It's his strategy for turning shit into gold. But turn it around just once and he refuses to take any responsibility at all and his supporters think he's walking on water.
Apparently so. Although to me such an attitude is quite breathtaking.
And I did not want to offer an unformed, uninformed opinion.
Well, he is not responsible for every COVID-19 death in America, but he is responsible for more than zero deaths.
And I did not want to offer an unformed, uninformed opinion. I don't want to 'stab' at it. It seems like an extremely complex modelling problem to me and I don't have the time, interest, skill, or access to data to do it.
And I did not want to offer an unformed, uninformed opinion. The only case I made was that he was not responsible for every single COVID death in America, and apparently that opinion, as offered, appears to be unacceptable.
I am neither interested nor obligated in producing a 'stab' for you.
Elixir
Made in America
Yet you have no problem demanding that others undertake to show you data and calculations that you automatically reject on the grounds that you don't like what they show...
Typical "I'm not a Trumpster" hypocrisy.
Trump is your president, not mine. I suggest you deal with this fact and try to move on.
Non. A demand was made of me first. I reject that demand. I do not need to model anything at all to reject - outright - that Trump is not responsible for every single COVID-19 death in America, because that is not based on mathematical and epidemiological modelling but on its logical impossibility.
Showing the death rates in other countries does nothing of any use without controlling for relevant pre-existing differences between the United States and other countries.
I don't know how many COVID-19 deaths in America Trump is responsible for, except that it's less than 100% of the actual COVID-19 deaths and more than zero.
And I am not going to throw out some number for you to satisfy you, because I don't have a number to throw out.