The Civil War of 2025

[Elixir]

In the end, they'll just round folks up by political affiliation

So… they’ll have their grubby little mitts on the voter rolls? What if everyone changes their affiliations to independent? I’m already doing that …

 

[Politesse]

Republicans can't actually fight for crap if the Jan 6 affair was any indication, so we should be okay, if down a few geriatric neighbors.

The only way for the Republicans, or any political party for that matter, to stage a successful coup is to have the military on their side.

Yeah, I have a hard time picturing that happening. It was different in the last Civil War, there was no single standing army with traditions as long and entrenched as what we have now. In today's context the thought of Marines voluntarily killing fellow Marines, against orders? I have a very hard time picturing that. They are usually more loyal to each other than they are to the country itself.

Then again, I also had a hard time picturing the US re-electing George W. Bush after it had been demonstrated he was a war criminal. Or electing a trash reality television host to be the next Republican president. Or canceling Roe v Wade apparently just by the fiat of ideologically compromised judges, or Senators voicing support for the violent breach of the Capitol grounds, or calling for violence against FBI agents. So maybe I am underestimating the Republican threat to the wellbeing of the Union. I wonder, sometimes, whether my assumptions are predicated on an outdated rulebook.

 

[Elixir]

Republicans can't actually fight for crap if the Jan 6 affair was any indication, so we should be okay, if down a few geriatric neighbors.

The only way for the Republicans, or any political party for that matter, to stage a successful coup is to have the military on their side.

Yeah, I have a hard time picturing that happening. It was different in the last Civil War, there was no single standing army with traditions as long and entrenched as what we have now. In today's context the thought of Marines voluntarily killing fellow Marines, against orders? I have a very hard time picturing that. They are usually more loyal to each other than they are to the country itself.

Then again, I also had a hard time picturing the US re-electing George W. Bush after it had been demonstrated he was a war criminal. Or electing a trash reality television host to be the next Republican president. Or canceling Roe v Wade apparently just by the fiat of ideologically compromised judges, or Senators voicing support for the violent breach of the Capitol grounds, or calling for violence against FBI agents. So maybe I am underestimating the Republican threat to the wellbeing of the Union. I wonder, sometimes, whether my assumptions are predicated on an outdated rulebook.

Yup. I can see a sort of guerilla war dragging on, with intermittent violence, assassinations etc., mostly carried out by individuals. The first time these morons are killed en masse, that will effectively disincentivize those who are contemplating their militias as a viable force. Whether that will constitute a "civil war" is a semantic matter. Certainly the wannabe war heroes will call it one.

 

[Swammerdami]

People seem to assume that civil war would take the form of a pogrom against Democratic voters. That is implausible.

Instead, just start by imagining what Republicans can do to prevent the next "Election Steal." Even without rising to the level of a civil war, expect Trumpists to harass voters in D-leaning precincts on Election Day. Expect shoving and weapon-brandishing to discourage voters. R-led swing states like Georgia. Arizona, North Carolina and some of the Rust-Belt states will suffer this fate, similar to previous voter suppression efforts but more extreme and with threats of violence. Also expect arson: R's will burn ballot boxes and take other measures to impede a fair count. Such Election Day terrorism in just a few states could swing the election. Police summoned to protect voters or precinct workers will strive for law and order in some towns, but abet the Trumpists in other towns.

If the R's win election(s) with such tactics, expect some D's to be enraged. This is one way violence might begin: If angry D's take up arms against R vote-stealers.

Whether full-scale civil war comes or not, we can expect terrorism, arson and other crimes in 2024 elections. Less clear is: Will the R's use 2022 elections as a dress rehearsal for the 2024 insurgency, or will they behave in 2022 so that the 2024 terrorism comes as a surprise?

 

[bilby]

In today's context the thought of Marines voluntarily killing fellow Marines, against orders? I have a very hard time picturing that. They are usually more loyal to each other than they are to the country itself.

Being more loyal to each other than to the country is a potential problem here, though, as it implies marines voluntarily killing national guard, army, navy, airforce or coastguard, in accordance with orders that come from a marine authority that recognises one of the two claimants for the presidency, and against orders from an army authority that recognises the other claimant.

If you have two claimants for Commander in Chief, you can get a fracturing of the military, without individual servicemen being asked to test their loyalty at all.

The General says his orders come from the president, and the orders imply defending ourselves against the bad guys who are following a fraudster. They're all in a different chain of command (maybe even a different branch), so loyalty dictates that we must fight them.

What are you going to do, argue with the General?

 

[Harry Bosch]

Can anyone explain to why right wingers are so unhappy with our political system??! I mean are you kidding? The system benefits them far more than it does for the left. There are far more dems than republicans. Dems win the majority of the popular vote. And yet the right, wins election after election with fewer voters. Through shrewd trickery, they'll control the judiciary for the next 40 years. Their side tried to steal the 2020 election. Trump (not Biden) tried to strong arm a foreign leader into digging dirt on a candidate. Trump (not Biden) tried to convince state politicians to try to find additional votes. Trump (not Biden) cooked a scheme to elect fake electors in order to throw the election. I'd like someone to explain to me why anyone connected to the fake elector scheme isn't in jail? If anyone should be pissed off about the direction of the company it should be the left, not the right.

 

[Politesse]

Can anyone explain to why right wingers are so unhappy with our political system??! I mean are you kidding? The system benefits them far more than it does for the left.

That's exactly the problem. Almost any potential change to the way things are done is an inherent threat to their "way of life", a system which allows a small group of people to enjoy enormous unearned privilege over their fellow citizens. They like that their vote counts for more than mine every election, that a woman has to fight twice as hard to keep the same job for the same pay as a man, that their faith affiliation is a tax haven for them, and so forth. They'll kill to hold on to those privileges.

 

[Elixir]

If the R's win election(s) with such tactics, expect some D's to be enraged. This is one way violence might begin: If angry D's take up arms against R vote-stealers.

Democrats taking up arms against Republican voters is implausible. Those are our friends’ friends, some relatives and mostly don’t matter anyhow.

If Democrats took up arms against Disingenuous Republican election deniers, media liars and election sabateurs - in other words, Republican leaders, THAT, if successful, would make a difference. But IRL, no chance. Dems mostly know that such an approach, if extra-judicial, would turn them into what they despise.

I wonder about the effects of terrorizing/ intimidating voters at the ballot box.
It could backfire and drive turnout.

 

[Politesse]

Well, at least the situation at the ballot box might not be quite as bleak as we've been imagining for much of the year. Not that I have much faith that simply electing more Democrats will solve... well, anything. But it's better than just allowing Trump to place whoever he hand picks into positions of power, which seems to be the only alternative at present.

After legislative success, positive economic news, bump in polls, Democrats' midterm chances appear to improve

Political pundits have predicted a red wave, but the mood of the electorate may be shifting in the closing months before November. On Thursday, the Cook Political Report deemed Senate control this fall a "toss-up," following recent polls that suggested several Republican candidates are trailing behind their Democratic opponents in key races.

Cook recently changed the Pennsylvania Senate race between Dr. Mehmet Oz and Lt. Gov. John Fetterman from a "toss-up" to "lean Democrat." Another election survey from AARP/Fabrizio Ward & Impact Research suggested that Gov. Gretchen Whitmer was leading in the gubernatorial race against trump-endorsed Tudor Dixon.

A Fox News poll of Wisconsin voters found Barnes was leading over Johnson 50-46%. Another Fox poll in Arizona reported Sen. Mark Kelly holds an 8-point lead over trump-backed Blake Masters in the Senate race.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

I think we have to recognize now the real possibility of the country splitting apart in 2025 due to the factionalism that has been engendered by numerous issues growing over decades, and particularly due to demographic changes in America that have been slowly building. But perhaps most importantly due to the actions of Republican leaders who have acquiesced to Trump’s take over of the Republican Party.

What I see happening is Biden winning the popular vote by a large margin. He retains at least Arizona and possibly Georgia too, but since Republicans control the legislatures and the political offices are then occupied by die hard Trump supporters who refuse to certify the election. This results in violence. There will be a lot of pre election violence as well. The Republican vote suppression efforts will meet backlash after backlash. A cycle of violence that will likely spiral out of control.

I think Americans are too complacent about the future. The passions of 2020 will be nothing compared to 2024. The rank and file will simply not let another election be “stolen.” There will no longer be the brakes there were in 2020. Raffensperger in Georgia will be gone. So likely would be Kemp. Trump will be able to call up their successors and say get me 20,000 more votes and he will get them. In fact he will be able to do that across the country where Republicans are in charge.

In fact the only way I see us avoiding a full blown civil war is if the Democrats acquiesce to the coup. I think that will be worse. The other way is if Trump actually did win and then the Democrats wouldn’t revolt. Neither is palatable to me.

The final way to avoid the conflict would be if Trump were to die or become incapacitated between now and the election. I don’t hold out much hope for that. But he’s not in the best of health for sure.

Feargasm.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

I think we have to recognize now the real possibility of the country splitting apart in 2025 due to the factionalism that has been engendered by numerous issues growing over decades, and particularly due to demographic changes in America that have been slowly building. But perhaps most importantly due to the actions of Republican leaders who have acquiesced to Trump’s take over of the Republican Party.

What I see happening is Biden winning the popular vote by a large margin. He retains at least Arizona and possibly Georgia too, but since Republicans control the legislatures and the political offices are then occupied by die hard Trump supporters who refuse to certify the election. This results in violence. There will be a lot of pre election violence as well. The Republican vote suppression efforts will meet backlash after backlash. A cycle of violence that will likely spiral out of control.

I think Americans are too complacent about the future. The passions of 2020 will be nothing compared to 2024. The rank and file will simply not let another election be “stolen.” There will no longer be the brakes there were in 2020. Raffensperger in Georgia will be gone. So likely would be Kemp. Trump will be able to call up their successors and say get me 20,000 more votes and he will get them. In fact he will be able to do that across the country where Republicans are in charge.

In fact the only way I see us avoiding a full blown civil war is if the Democrats acquiesce to the coup. I think that will be worse. The other way is if Trump actually did win and then the Democrats wouldn’t revolt. Neither is palatable to me.

The final way to avoid the conflict would be if Trump were to die or become incapacitated between now and the election. I don’t hold out much hope for that. But he’s not in the best of health for sure.

Feargasm.

Welp, I just searched your previous posts where you use the word "feargasm" and the very last one was this one.

It was hard to take your posts seriously before, but now, it's even worse.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

You've never been one to take facts and logic seriously.

 

[Jarhyn]

You've never been one to take facts and logic seriously.

Seeing as how you quote nobody and just emit text into the air here, I can only assume the person you are talking to is yourself.

 

[Swammerdami]

You've never been one to take facts and logic seriously.
Jill Biden thinks I'm a breakfast taco.
No Biden, no KKK, no Fascist USA
The word "know" has one silent k.
The word "knuckle" has two silent k's.
The word "Democrat" has three silent k's.

Comedy gold.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

When I hear about this Civil War fantasy it is mostly from people on the right.

Who do they think they will be fighting and where will this fighting happen?

Will they be knocking on doors unimpeded asking for people's voting records?

Will they be attacking government buildings?

Exactly what do they imagine will be going on?

If there's a civil war it will be people resisting actions being taken by the government after a right-wing takeover. Say, the LGBTQ's shooting back when the government tries to haul them off to reeducation camps.

 

[marc]

Now where have I heard the call to a glorious civil war before?

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

You've never been one to take facts and logic seriously.

Seeing as how you quote nobody and just emit text into the air here, I can only assume the person you are talking to is yourself.

If the shoe fits, Cinderella.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

You've never been one to take facts and logic seriously.

Seeing as how you quote nobody and just emit text into the air here, I can only assume the person you are talking to is yourself.

If the shoe fits, Cinderella.

You just burned yourself.

 

[Jarhyn]

You've never been one to take facts and logic seriously.

Seeing as how you quote nobody and just emit text into the air here, I can only assume the person you are talking to is yourself.

If the shoe fits, Cinderella.

You just burned yourself.

I was almost losing hope that someone would catch it before I ended up pointing it out. It wouldn't have been nearly as impactful if I had had to.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

The MAGATs can declare civil war, but us progressives have General Covid-19 on our side.