The Civil War of 2025

[SLD]

I think we have to recognize now the real possibility of the country splitting apart in 2025 due to the factionalism that has been engendered by numerous issues growing over decades, and particularly due to demographic changes in America that have been slowly building. But perhaps most importantly due to the actions of Republican leaders who have acquiesced to Trump’s take over of the Republican Party.

What I see happening is Biden winning the popular vote by a large margin. He retains at least Arizona and possibly Georgia too, but since Republicans control the legislatures and the political offices are then occupied by die hard Trump supporters who refuse to certify the election. This results in violence. There will be a lot of pre election violence as well. The Republican vote suppression efforts will meet backlash after backlash. A cycle of violence that will likely spiral out of control.

I think Americans are too complacent about the future. The passions of 2020 will be nothing compared to 2024. The rank and file will simply not let another election be “stolen.” There will no longer be the brakes there were in 2020. Raffensperger in Georgia will be gone. So likely would be Kemp. Trump will be able to call up their successors and say get me 20,000 more votes and he will get them. In fact he will be able to do that across the country where Republicans are in charge.

In fact the only way I see us avoiding a full blown civil war is if the Democrats acquiesce to the coup. I think that will be worse. The other way is if Trump actually did win and then the Democrats wouldn’t revolt. Neither is palatable to me.

The final way to avoid the conflict would be if Trump were to die or become incapacitated between now and the election. I don’t hold out much hope for that. But he’s not in the best of health for sure.

 

[crazyfingers]

I think you referenced this item in another thread. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/09/23/robert-kagan-constitutional-crisis/

Yes, scary shit.

 

[Politesse]

Republicans can't actually fight for crap if the Jan 6 affair was any indication, so we should be okay, if down a few geriatric neighbors.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Republicans can't actually fight for crap if the Jan 6 affair was any indication, so we should be okay, if down a few geriatric neighbors.

Did you forget the GOP in the House had over 100 votes to reject election results in multiple states?

And where the most obviously egregious acts have come up short, McConnell managed to steal seats on SCOTUS, which stole the potential shift in radicalism to a more centrist bent.

 

[Politesse]

Republicans can't actually fight for crap if the Jan 6 affair was any indication, so we should be okay, if down a few geriatric neighbors.

Did you forget the GOP in the House had over 100 votes to reject election results in multiple states?

And where the most obviously egregious acts have come up short, McConnell managed to steal seats on SCOTUS, which stole the potential shift in radicalism to a more centrist bent.

Ah, so just a metaphorical war. Well, they've always been cheats and liars, that's nothing new.

 

[braces_for_impact]

I could see scattered clashes of violence here and there about the country, but I don't see a full scale conflict. Fortunately, the military shows no real inclination to become involved in the stupidity, and choose a side. Despite recent idiots on the right trying to call them to arms. The wealthy elite, regardless of which side they happen to fall, won't allow a full scale conflict to interfere with their profits, and will call their politicians to heel if things get too hot.

Now, that doesn't mean we couldn't slip ever closer to fascism. There are definitely elements within our government more than happy to do so.

 

[ideologyhunter]

Yep, the real danger is that Republicans wish to own the election process and distort it so that they can win with a smaller and smaller cut of the electorate. As for actual war, we can expect more of these militia guys -- the kind who work construction during the week or live in mama's basement -- to do their skullduggery.
That's not trivial; in the past few years they schemed to kidnap a state governor, bomb Democrat HQs in several states, kill Nancy Pelosi, Robert DeNiro et al. who dared to call Trump on his crimes, with pipe bombs. But the Trump base? It skews toward angry old white fucks living in Heart Attack Alley. They'll cheer on the 1/6 "tourists" who took the unguided tour of the Capitol, but they have trouble getting out of their Lazy Boys to fetch another beer.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Republicans can't actually fight for crap if the Jan 6 affair was any indication, so we should be okay, if down a few geriatric neighbors.

Did you forget the GOP in the House had over 100 votes to reject election results in multiple states?

And where the most obviously egregious acts have come up short, McConnell managed to steal seats on SCOTUS, which stole the potential shift in radicalism to a more centrist bent.

Ah, so just a metaphorical war. Well, they've always been cheats and liars, that's nothing new.

Well, I’m saying the GOP is just going to take control.

 

[Swammerdami]

Republicans can't actually fight for crap if the Jan 6 affair was any indication, so we should be okay, if down a few geriatric neighbors.

Did you forget the GOP in the House had over 100 votes to reject election results in multiple states?

And where the most obviously egregious acts have come up short, McConnell managed to steal seats on SCOTUS, which stole the potential shift in radicalism to a more centrist bent.

Yes. Unless the Democrats start playing hardball almost immediately, this will be the last time the Ds have as many as 48 Senators in our lifetimes. For starters, the Georgia seats will be retaken promptly by the GOP, with any lawsuits about GOP fraud losing 5-4 in the Supreme Court. (The "48" quotation DOES include the Independents but NOT the Kochists: Manchin and Sinema.)

American democracy is doomed. Get over it.

 

[Politesse]

Ah, so just a metaphorical war. Well, they've always been cheats and liars, that's nothing new.

Well, I’m saying the GOP is just going to take control.

They're already in effective control. They, and their other ruling class allies of course.

 

[ideologyhunter]

July 22, 2025
Dominion Camp
outside Culpeper Court House, VA

My dearest C'nelia,
You will no doubt know, in advance of this missive, that the liberals have been pushed off this sovereign Southern soil. Have no fear of my safety, as I came through the battle unharmed and am as well as you saw me last (cholestrol 285.) The newspapers have no doubt related the glorious events of yesterday, a day that will live in history as Third Bull Run, a day that saw the Legacy American reclaim his own. My own darling, would that I could be at your side, but I could not love you more, loved I not honor less. I shall relate to you now what I saw on that glorious day.
Our commander, leader, and inspiration, Gen'l Trump, sent us marching with glorious color guard, west from Manassas Junction to meet the enemy. It was my luck to hire an Uber. On the field of honor we secured a position on high ground and had barely dug our entrenchments when the liberals appeared, as a line of shadow on the brow of a distant ridge. Some of them arrived in motorized units, consisting largely of the Prius XLE and Prius Plug-In, which occasioned a good deal of hilarity in our men.
Our field commander was carried up to our lines, and he (Brevet General Trump Jr.) gave orders to the artillery to fire at 12:05 p.m. At 12:10 our commander fell, and I was instantly at his side. He confided that he had concealed from his junior officers a desperate case of dysentery, which had just now stricken him and laid him low, and indeed I heard loud growling and gurgling sounds from his abdomen; besides, he had a natural inherited affliction, in fact, a distended spur on the talus bone, which he had compensated for all his life but which now, unluckily, manifested itself on the field of battle.
It fell to me to protect and in fact carry my commander behind the lines to a quonset hut, a duty from which I did not shy. After a long sequence of visits to the toilet and generous provender of cracklings, Zapp's potato chips, and Goo Goo Clusters, he was restored to a semblance of his masculine brawn and grandeur. I had tivo'd the events of the day, and together we shared the glory of victory for Legacy America and Dominion Christianity, which shall reign over this republic until Jesus Christ shall return with the power of the Rapture and gather us all home.
My darling, I will text you when my return is imminent and remind you to start the hot tub.
Your devoted husband,
DeWayne

 

[SLD]

Republicans can't actually fight for crap if the Jan 6 affair was any indication, so we should be okay, if down a few geriatric neighbors.

Did you forget the GOP in the House had over 100 votes to reject election results in multiple states?

And where the most obviously egregious acts have come up short, McConnell managed to steal seats on SCOTUS, which stole the potential shift in radicalism to a more centrist bent.

Yes. Unless the Democrats start playing hardball almost immediately, this will be the last time the Ds have as many as 48 Senators in our lifetimes. For starters, the Georgia seats will be retaken promptly by the GOP, with any lawsuits about GOP fraud losing 5-4 in the Supreme Court. (The "48" quotation DOES include the Independents but NOT the Kochists: Manchin and Sinema.)

American democracy is doomed. Get over it.

That’s the other fear I have, not civil war but acquiescence by the Democrats. The Democrats have been pussies for far too long. They had a golden opportunity in Trump’s term to utterly destroy the Republican Party. They failed at it miserably and let them grow in fact. Pathetic.

 

[ideologyhunter]

Where was the golden opportunity? The Repubs started out controlling the WH, the House, the Senate, and a majority of state governorships. They did impeach twice -- a unique occurrence -- and could not get past the GOP firewall.

 

[Jarhyn]

Republicans can't actually fight for crap if the Jan 6 affair was any indication, so we should be okay, if down a few geriatric neighbors.

Did you forget the GOP in the House had over 100 votes to reject election results in multiple states?

And where the most obviously egregious acts have come up short, McConnell managed to steal seats on SCOTUS, which stole the potential shift in radicalism to a more centrist bent.

Ah, so just a metaphorical war. Well, they've always been cheats and liars, that's nothing new.

Not to get to fine a point on it, but as a veteran, I've been learning all kinds of skills I think might be useful come 2030.

Most of what I'm learning is from the writings of Fiore.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

July 22, 2025
Dominion Camp
outside Culpeper Court House, VA

My dearest C'nelia,
You will no doubt know, in advance of this missive, that the liberals have been pushed off this sovereign Southern soil. Have no fear of my safety, as I came through the battle unharmed and am as well as you saw me last (cholestrol 285.) The newspapers have no doubt related the glorious events of yesterday, a day that will live in history as Third Bull Run, a day that saw the Legacy American reclaim his own. My own darling, would that I could be at your side, but I could not love you more, loved I not honor less. I shall relate to you now what I saw on that glorious day.
Our commander, leader, and inspiration, Gen'l Trump, sent us marching with glorious color guard, west from Manassas Junction to meet the enemy. It was my luck to hire an Uber. On the field of honor we secured a position on high ground and had barely dug our entrenchments when the liberals appeared, as a line of shadow on the brow of a distant ridge. Some of them arrived in motorized units, consisting largely of the Prius XLE and Prius Plug-In, which occasioned a good deal of hilarity in our men.
Our field commander was carried up to our lines, and he (Brevet General Trump Jr.) gave orders to the artillery to fire at 12:05 p.m. At 12:10 our commander fell, and I was instantly at his side. He confided that he had concealed from his junior officers a desperate case of dysentery, which had just now stricken him and laid him low, and indeed I heard loud growling and gurgling sounds from his abdomen; besides, he had a natural inherited affliction, in fact, a distended spur on the talus bone, which he had compensated for all his life but which now, unluckily, manifested itself on the field of battle.
It fell to me to protect and in fact carry my commander behind the lines to a quonset hut, a duty from which I did not shy. After a long sequence of visits to the toilet and generous provender of cracklings, Zapp's potato chips, and Goo Goo Clusters, he was restored to a semblance of his masculine brawn and grandeur. I had tivo'd the events of the day, and together we shared the glory of victory for Legacy America and Dominion Christianity, which shall reign over this republic until Jesus Christ shall return with the power of the Rapture and gather us all home.
My darling, I will text you when my return is imminent and remind you to start the hot tub.
Your devoted husband,
DeWayne

General Trump? The guy is a born coward.

 

[Keith&Co.]

General Trump? The guy is a born coward.

but he really wants military parades in his honor. He'd just start at General, and send others to lead from the front. His front, his beautiful front, that exists because of his leadership, leading a battle he asked others to plan, others he picked, the best officers on either side, except for the losers who used to lead before, and failed, and were shot by their own men.

 

[SLD]

Where was the golden opportunity? The Repubs started out controlling the WH, the House, the Senate, and a majority of state governorships. They did impeach twice -- a unique occurrence -- and could not get past the GOP firewall.

They could have filibustered Trump into a complete shut down of the economy. Just like Mitch McConnell is doing right now.

 

[Elixir]

Republicans can't actually fight for crap if the Jan 6 affair was any indication, so we should be okay, if down a few geriatric neighbors.

Did you forget the GOP in the House had over 100 votes to reject election results in multiple states?

And where the most obviously egregious acts have come up short, McConnell managed to steal seats on SCOTUS, which stole the potential shift in radicalism to a more centrist bent.

Yes. Unless the Democrats start playing hardball almost immediately, this will be the last time the Ds have as many as 48 Senators in our lifetimes. For starters, the Georgia seats will be retaken promptly by the GOP, with any lawsuits about GOP fraud losing 5-4 in the Supreme Court. (The "48" quotation DOES include the Independents but NOT the Kochists: Manchin and Sinema.)

American democracy is doomed. Get over it.

Yup let’s get it over with. Start arresting - Trump and his 1/6 Congressional co-conspirators ASAP. Let the law be enforced and use deadly force against Joe Plumber if he gets literally up in arms about it.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

We await the impact of Roe v Wade on the election. Then we'll find out how dead the democracy.

 

[Swammerdami]

There isn't clearcut geographical separation like in the Civil War, but there will be violence. There already is: People are being assaulted just for wearing masks! My sister lives in a town she loves near California's "gold country," but she is planning a move: the Trumpist culture has become too toxic. The Trump-QOP Party actively encourages violence, hoping to intimidate Democrats, as well as QOPsters who might be tempted to defect.

QOP has effective control of police even in "Blue" states; we've already seen police in Seattle or Portland assist Proud Boys and other QOP militias. (Is "GOPAnon Party" a better moniker than "QOP"?) Violence on or near Election Day is a good way to intimidate minority voters so, yes, there will be bloodshed.

But it will probably not rise to the level of "Civil War." Moderate Americans will acquiesce to QOP rule. QOP will control both Houses of Congress and Scotus. AZ, FL, GA and OH will no longer be "swing states" — their Republican legislatures are already passing laws to ignore their citizens when choosing Presidential electors and to rig other elections in their favor. They've already packed Scotus; when they regain the White House expect the end of democracy.

Betfair is already making book on the 2022 and 2024 elections. The Rs are 76% to win the House in 2022 and 54% to win the Senate (optimistic I think). They show the Ds as 80% to win the popular vote for Potus in 2024, but only 51% to win the electoral college.

The 51% chance of re-electing a D President in 2024 is probably an optimistic estimate, but there may be hope: By then Trump will literally be needing frequent diaper changes; there may be an embarrassing incident.