The Civil War of 2025

[Elixir]

We await the impact ...

If we do any "awaiting", Swammi's scenario will almost certainly come to pass.
We need to start locking up treasonous Congresscritters NOW, and deal with the backlash in appropriately harsh ways.
Before the 2022 elections. After that it will be too late.

 

[SLD]

Apparently I’m not the only one thinking like this.

https://hartmannreport.com/p/the-ne...ZMfhAJeDLjeAePP03SKttxWbih3XGrc5ntDeJAZk7hPBQ

There are so many powerful voices against democracy and the rule of the people, I fear it just cannot be contained. So many monied interests feel that Trump is a better alternative than Biden, or more likely Harris. They are repeating the mistakes of German conservatives in the early 30’s. They think they can control this beast.

In 2024, Trump though won’t have a VP in the senate who will try to throw the election to the House. That was his plan but Pence didn’t buy into it. Had it happened, how would the Democrats have responded? File a lawsuit and let the US Supreme Court rule? Sheesh! Take to the streets?

And if Trump loses in 2024, will he call for mass violence? He could. Would anyone stop him? Maybe. I wonder if Mitch McConnell and other Republican leaders would support him. Maybe not, but what impact would that have on the rank and file. They’d all be dismissed as RINO’s. I occasionally listen to talk radio down here, and I recall a caller saying last December that all Trump had to do was issue the call and he and his buddies were ready to go to DC and fight for freedom. The host poo-Poohed this idea, but many others buy into it. The same host has continued since then to say the election was stolen. If the election really was stolen, then there indeed should be a violent revolution!

But unlike Swammerdami, I do hold out some hope that we won’t slide into autocracy or civil war. A convincing loss at the polls by Trump is very possible. The larger that loss, the less likely any claims of fraud are likely to resonate. And I still hold out hope that he’ll be incapacitated by then. Actually it would be really great if his cognitive function was so debilitated but he still wins the nomination. Then the Dems might really sweep the electoral college.

 

[Swammerdami]

There are so many powerful voices against democracy and the rule of the people, I fear it just cannot be contained. So many monied interests feel that Trump is a better alternative than Biden, or more likely Harris. They are repeating the mistakes of German conservatives in the early 30’s. They think they can control this beast.

In 2024, Trump though won’t have a VP in the senate who will try to throw the election to the House. That was his plan but Pence didn’t buy into it. Had it happened, how would the Democrats have responded? File a lawsuit and let the US Supreme Court rule? Sheesh! Take to the streets?

And if Trump loses in 2024, will he call for mass violence? He could. Would anyone stop him? Maybe. I wonder if Mitch McConnell and other Republican leaders would support him. Maybe not, but what impact would that have on the rank and file. They’d all be dismissed as RINO’s. I occasionally listen to talk radio down here, and I recall a caller saying last December that all Trump had to do was issue the call and he and his buddies were ready to go to DC and fight for freedom. The host poo-Poohed this idea, but many others buy into it. The same host has continued since then to say the election was stolen. If the election really was stolen, then there indeed should be a violent revolution!

But unlike Swammerdami, I do hold out some hope that we won’t slide into autocracy or civil war. A convincing loss at the polls by Trump is very possible. The larger that loss, the less likely any claims of fraud are likely to resonate. And I still hold out hope that he’ll be incapacitated by then. Actually it would be really great if his cognitive function was so debilitated but he still wins the nomination. Then the Dems might really sweep the electoral college.

Betfair numbers can also be interpreted to predict which candidates are best.
The D's have a much better chance to win in November '24 if Biden's the nominee rather than Kamala Harris. Buttigieg is a distant 3rd in the race for the D nomination, according to Betfair punters.

On the R side, Trump, DeSantis, Haley and Pence in that order are the four likeliest nominees. Of these Haley would have the best chance if nominated, DeSantis the worst.

It will be a weird election in 2024. We'll have to run the 82-year old man since the 60-year old woman will be a weak candidate. We must hope the Trump Derangement lasts long enough to oust Nikki Haley, and then hope the Rs turn to Ron DeS at the last moment.

If it's Biden vs Ron DeSantis, the Ds get four more years. But in an all-female race Kamala vs Nikki, Nikki wins easily. Yes, once again personalities will be all-important.

 

[Elixir]

Apparently I’m not the only one thinking like this.

Well ...

A convincing loss at the polls by Trump is very possible. The larger that loss, the less likely any claims of fraud are likely to resonate.

We had this discussion prior to Trump's humiliating landslide defeat. IIRC, you agreed with my prediction that regardless of margin of victory, Trump would never concede.
That said, I agree that it's possible he could lose enough of the "faithful" after another drubbing to be relegated to some dark corner, but ONLY if 2022 produces real margins in both houses of Congress for the Dems.

Dems have one year to
a) derail the voter suppression train
b) find a more charismatic candidate than Kami, and
c) pass laws to criminalize specific forms of domestic terror than can be called up to destabilize election

I'd like to see a bunch of the 1/6 congressional co-conspirators arrested, tried and convicted but that's not going to happen by then. And won't happen at all if the GQP gains seats in either chamber.
The odds at this point are very long against the preservation of democracy in any recognizable form.

it would be really great if his cognitive function was so debilitated but he still wins the nomination. Then the Dems might really sweep the electoral college.

Again, the democrat might get more votes than him in every single State, but it won't matter if the GQP has its thugs running every election - which they will if they seize congress in '22.
Maybe if he was dead...
Maybe.

We'll have to run the 82-year old man since the 60-year old woman will be a weak candidate.

Best chance for a rout would be to nominate someone with tremendous charisma whose name nobody knows at this juncture.

 

[Shadowy Man]

Just run Obama again. Like the Constitution matters anymore.

 

[The Sage of Main Street]

I think we have to recognize now the real possibility of the country splitting apart in 2025 due to the factionalism that has been engendered by numerous issues growing over decades, and particularly due to demographic changes in America that have been slowly building. But perhaps most importantly due to the actions of Republican leaders who have acquiesced to Trump’s take over of the Republican Party.

What I see happening is Biden winning the popular vote by a large margin. He retains at least Arizona and possibly Georgia too, but since Republicans control the legislatures and the political offices are then occupied by die hard Trump supporters who refuse to certify the election. This results in violence. There will be a lot of pre election violence as well. The Republican vote suppression efforts will meet backlash after backlash. A cycle of violence that will likely spiral out of control.

I think Americans are too complacent about the future. The passions of 2020 will be nothing compared to 2024. The rank and file will simply not let another election be “stolen.” There will no longer be the brakes there were in 2020. Raffensperger in Georgia will be gone. So likely would be Kemp. Trump will be able to call up their successors and say get me 20,000 more votes and he will get them. In fact he will be able to do that across the country where Republicans are in charge.

In fact the only way I see us avoiding a full blown civil war is if the Democrats acquiesce to the coup. I think that will be worse. The other way is if Trump actually did win and then the Democrats wouldn’t revolt. Neither is palatable to me.

The final way to avoid the conflict would be if Trump were to die or become incapacitated between now and the election. I don’t hold out much hope for that. But he’s not in the best of health for sure.

The Country of Great America Is Too Big to Fall Under the Tyranny of Ingrate America

Trump didn't agitate the Red States' desire for independence. It's been simmering there for decades, long before Trump answered the roaring call for someone like him.

 

[The Sage of Main Street]

There are so many powerful voices against democracy and the rule of the people, I fear it just cannot be contained. So many monied interests feel that Trump is a better alternative than Biden, or more likely Harris. They are repeating the mistakes of German conservatives in the early 30’s. They think they can control this beast.

In 2024, Trump though won’t have a VP in the senate who will try to throw the election to the House. That was his plan but Pence didn’t buy into it. Had it happened, how would the Democrats have responded? File a lawsuit and let the US Supreme Court rule? Sheesh! Take to the streets?

And if Trump loses in 2024, will he call for mass violence? He could. Would anyone stop him? Maybe. I wonder if Mitch McConnell and other Republican leaders would support him. Maybe not, but what impact would that have on the rank and file. They’d all be dismissed as RINO’s. I occasionally listen to talk radio down here, and I recall a caller saying last December that all Trump had to do was issue the call and he and his buddies were ready to go to DC and fight for freedom. The host poo-Poohed this idea, but many others buy into it. The same host has continued since then to say the election was stolen. If the election really was stolen, then there indeed should be a violent revolution!

But unlike Swammerdami, I do hold out some hope that we won’t slide into autocracy or civil war. A convincing loss at the polls by Trump is very possible. The larger that loss, the less likely any claims of fraud are likely to resonate. And I still hold out hope that he’ll be incapacitated by then. Actually it would be really great if his cognitive function was so debilitated but he still wins the nomination. Then the Dems might really sweep the electoral college.

Betfair numbers can also be interpreted to predict which candidates are best.
The D's have a much better chance to win in November '24 if Biden's the nominee rather than Kamala Harris. Buttigieg is a distant 3rd in the race for the D nomination, according to Betfair punters.

On the R side, Trump, DeSantis, Haley and Pence in that order are the four likeliest nominees. Of these Haley would have the best chance if nominated, DeSantis the worst.

It will be a weird election in 2024. We'll have to run the 82-year old man since the 60-year old woman will be a weak candidate. We must hope the Trump Derangement lasts long enough to oust Nikki Haley, and then hope the Rs turn to Ron DeS at the last moment.

If it's Biden vs Ron DeSantis, the Ds get four more years. But in an all-female race Kamala vs Nikki, Nikki wins easily. Yes, once again personalities will be all-important.

The Art of the Deal

Why can't we separate? You can't stand us, so why do you want us to stay with you? As an independent country, Great America will send you, free of charge, all your pet groups stuck in the Red States. So they won't be persecuted here. In return, we'll take the White gunowners, White policemen, and White Christians off your hands. It's a win-win for both new countries.

 

[Trausti]

Trump doesn't stand a chance.

 

[southernhybrid]

Yes. Unless the Democrats start playing hardball almost immediately, this will be the last time the Ds have as many as 48 Senators in our lifetimes. For starters, the Georgia seats will be retaken promptly by the GOP, with any lawsuits about GOP fraud losing 5-4 in the Supreme Court. (The "48" quotation DOES include the Independents but NOT the Kochists: Manchin and Sinema.)

American democracy is doomed. Get over it.

Yup let’s get it over with. Start arresting - Trump and his 1/6 Congressional co-conspirators ASAP. Let the law be enforced and use deadly force against Joe Plumber if he gets literally up in arms about it.

Well, that's what we're trying to do.....


https://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-trump-activists-subpoenaed-in-jan-6-investigation/JDTIPITFP5E2HN4YGTM5HVVOY4/

A House committee charged with investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol riot has subpoenaed two Georgia tea party activists who helped arrange the pro-Trump rally in Washington, D.C., that preceded the attack.



Women for America First founder Amy Kremer of Roswell and her daughter Kylie Kremer were on a list of 11 names released Wednesday by the House select committee investigating Capitol attack. The committee is seeking documents and testimony related to the riot.

“The investigation has revealed credible evidence of your involvement in events within the scope of the Select Committee’s inquiry,” the letter to Amy Kremer stated, noting that the permit application for the rally was made the same day as former President Donald Trump’s tweet urging people to attend.

This shit takes time.

And, imo, it's not so much that Democrats are pussies, unless by pussies, you simply mean cats. Cats are difficult to herd and that's how I view the Dems. For example, those on the left won't compromise with the moderates so nothing gets done. This is one reason why I can't stand Bernie. It's not that I'm against most of his wishes, I just don't like anyone who has the attitude that it has to be all or nothing. Get what you can and then try to get more later. Pass the f'n infrastructure bill, and then reduce the 3.5 trillion plan so that the two moderates in the Senate will pass it.Then come back bit by bit and get what you can. You know......"you can't always get what you want...but if you try real hard, you'll get what you need." Something is better than nothing.

There's not going to be a civil war. How would that work since just about every state is a diverse mix of Dems and Repubs as well as independents? The so called bluest states are on opposite sides of the country. Sure, we have a lot of crazy violent idiots in this country and sadly, guns are totally out of control. Violence is on the rise all over the country and a lot of it isn't at all related to politics.

Jesus! Some of you sound like helpless little scardy cats! Plus, Trump may either be dead or so senile that he won't be able to walk upright by 2024. Let's see how the next year or two go before we freakout.

 

[Elixir]

Well, that's what we're trying to do.....


https://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-trump-activists-subpoenaed-in-jan-6-investigation/JDTIPITFP5E2HN4YGTM5HVVOY4/

A House committee charged with investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol riot has subpoenaed two Georgia tea party activists who helped arrange the pro-Trump rally in Washington, D.C., that preceded the attack.



Women for America First founder Amy Kremer of Roswell and her daughter Kylie Kremer were on a list of 11 names released Wednesday by the House select committee investigating Capitol attack. The committee is seeking documents and testimony related to the riot.

“The investigation has revealed credible evidence of your involvement in events within the scope of the Select Committee’s inquiry,” the letter to Amy Kremer stated, noting that the permit application for the rally was made the same day as former President Donald Trump’s tweet urging people to attend.

This shit takes time.

And, imo, it's not so much that Democrats are pussies, unless by pussies, you simply mean cats. Cats are difficult to herd and that's how I view the Dems. For example, those on the left won't compromise with the moderates so nothing gets done. This is one reason why I can't stand Bernie. It's not that I'm against most of his wishes, I just don't like anyone who has the attitude that it has to be all or nothing. Get what you can and then try to get more later. Pass the f'n infrastructure bill, and then reduce the 3.5 trillion plan so that the two moderates in the Senate will pass it.Then come back bit by bit and get what you can. You know......"you can't always get what you want...but if you try real hard, you'll get what you need." Something is better than nothing.

There's not going to be a civil war. How would that work since just about every state is a diverse mix of Dems and Repubs as well as independents? The so called bluest states are on opposite sides of the country. Sure, we have a lot of crazy violent idiots in this country and sadly, guns are totally out of control. Violence is on the rise all over the country and a lot of it isn't at all related to politics.

Jesus! Some of you sound like helpless little scardy cats! Plus, Trump may either be dead or so senile that he won't be able to walk upright by 2024. Let's see how the next year or two go before we freakout.

I agree with most of that, but take issue with using the word “moderates” to describe one conservative plus one self interested toddler. Someone needs to remind Sinema who she “works” for.

 

[Politesse]

Meanwhile, DeSantis is pretending that the reason his political career is tanking is because he's a heroic martyr fighting against critical race theory, as opposed to because he was responsible for the deaths of thousands of his constituents, including some of his most prominent supporters on the radio circuit.

“I’m not considering anything beyond doing my job. We got a lot of stuff going on in Florida. I’m going to be running for reelection next year,” DeSantis said after being asked if he’s considering running for president in 2024, Business Insider reports.

“We are also working on a lot of things in the state beyond the governor’s race. We got school-board races,” DeSantis added. “I want to make sure people are not supporting critical race theory, making sure that parents have the ability to send their kid to school the way they want to.”

In any case, he says he's not running in 2024. If Republicans were capable of speaking without lying, we'd have at least one reason to feel better about 2025. Alas...

The idea of someone who is governing a state wracked by a uncontrolled pandemic describing the current state of affairs as "a lot of stuff going on", but clearly not meaning the pandemic itself to be understood as one of the stuffs, remains startling to me even though I ought to know the Trumpistas better by now.

 

[SLD]

https://livingbluetx.com/2021/09/domestic-terrorist-next-door/

For those of you still doubting me. Things will only get worse. The insanity will only spread and the Dems are whistling in the dark. We are headed towards a violent clash. I was listening to right wing talk radio the other day and the host was spewing the crap about the stolen election. A caller said that we’ve lost our freedoms and have become a socialist country. He said we must fight. The host encouraged him to do so. These hatemongers will continue their tirade.

Another good article:

https://pressrun.media/p/america-isnt-guaranteed-a-happy-ending

 

[lpetrich]

Trump supporters threaten Civil War II

Trump Supporter to MSNBC: 'I See A Civil War Coming. I Do.'

“I think the Republicans are about as weak as they possibly could be in congress. You have maybe six that are worth their salt,” said the supporter, listing Sens. Ted Cruz, Mike Lee, and Rand Paul (but, noticeably, not Grassley) among the good ones, and saying there are “two or three others.”

“The rest of them are just the same as the Democrats,” she said. “They’ve been there too long. They’re establishment. They don’t care about the American people because they’re in their elite little tower.”

...
“So we’re just sick of it, you know, and we’re not gonna take it anymore,” she declared. “I see a civil war coming. I do. I see civil war coming.”

A sentiment shared by several other Trump supporters.

In Iowa, Trump is now polling higher than Gov. Kim Reynolds and Sen. Chuck Grassley, both Republicans. CG is in his 7th term as US Senator and he is running for re-election next year.

 

[lpetrich]

Madison Cawthorn Is Openly Talking About Civil War at This Point | Vanity Fair

“If our election systems continue to be rigged and continue to be stolen, then it’s gonna lead to one place and that’s bloodshed,” Cawthorn said at the Republican event. “And I will tell you: As much as I am willing to defend our liberty at all costs, there’s nothing that I would dread doing more than having to pick up arms against a fellow American. And the way that we can have recourse against that is if we all passionately demand that we have election security in all 50 states.”

Early this year, on Jan 18,
Republicans parrot far-right talk of a coming civil war

War-like imagery has begun spreading in Republican circles after the attack on the U.S. Capitol by a mob of President Donald Trump’s supporters, with some elected officials and party leaders rejecting pleas to tone down rhetoric calling for a second civil war.

...
Democrats say the uptick in war talk isn’t accidental. Rep. Maxine Waters, D-California, said Trump began putting his supporters in the frame of mind to make the opening charge years ago and is “capable of starting a civil war.”

“Since his first day in office, this president has spent four years abusing his power, lying, embracing authoritarianism [and] radicalizing his supporters against democracy,” she said in arguing for impeachment. “This corruption poisoned the minds of his supporters, inciting them to willingly join with white supremacists, neo-Nazis and paramilitary extremists in a siege of the United State Capitol building, the very seat of American democracy.”

There are parallels between now and the run-up to the Civil War, including a fractious national election that ended with presidents — Abraham Lincoln in 1860 and Joe Biden in 2020 — who millions rejected as illegitimate victors, said Nina Silber, co-president of the Society of Civil War Historians.

She says that white resentment is another parallel.

“At the time of the Civil War, this took the form of Southern white men angry at the idea that the federal government would interfere with their right to own Black slaves. Today, I think this takes the form of white people who believe that Black and brown people are making gains, or getting special treatment, at their expense,” Silber, who teaches at Boston University, said in an email interview.

Historian George Rable:

“I think both then and now, we need to worry about the unanticipated consequences of overheated rhetoric and emotions,” he said. “Secessionists then hardly anticipated such a bloody civil war, and their opponents often underestimated the depth of secessionist sentiment in a number of states.”

Like this:

Randy Voepel, a state Assemblyman in California, backtracked after referencing an earlier war — the American Revolution — in a Jan. 9 San Diego Union-Tribune article: “This is Lexington and Concord. First shots fired against tyranny. Tyranny will follow in the aftermath of the Biden swear in on January 20th.”

 

[lpetrich]

Trump supporter warns CNN civil war is coming in alarming live segment

A Donald Trump supporter warned CNN that civil war was coming if the former president was not reinstated to the White House in an alarming live segment.

A string of Mr Trump’s supporters spoke with the news network at his campaign-style rally in Ohio and still refused to accept his 2020 defeat to Joe Biden.

More on that rally: Trump supporter warns CNN reporter of 'civil war' if former president not reinstated 'soon' | TheHill

"He didn't lose, I know he didn't lose," one woman told O'Sullivan, indicating she believes unfounded claims made by Trump and other Republicans that widespread voter fraud led to an unfair election that swung in President Biden's favor.

...
"It's about all of them, and 2020 and the next one," another woman told O'Sullivan about her "Trump won" T-shirt.

O'Sullivan pressed the woman on the election's result, saying, "But he lost though in 2020, right?"

"No!" she responded.

...
Ron continued: "He's coming back before the middle of August."

"And what if that doesn't happen?" O'Sullivan asked.

"We're going to be in a civil war because the militia will be taking over," the man responded.

 

[lpetrich]

From early 2019: In America, talk turns to something not spoken of for 150 years: Civil war - The Washington Post

First came former U.S. attorney Joseph diGenova, a Fox News regular and ally of President Trump’s. “We are in a civil war,” he said. “The suggestion that there’s ever going to be civil discourse in this country for the foreseeable future is over. . . . It’s going to be total war.”

The next day, Nicolle Wallace, a former Republican operative turned MSNBC commentator and Trump critic, played a clip of di*Genova’s commentary on her show and agreed with him — although she placed the blame squarely on the president.

Trump, she said, “greenlit a war in this country around race. And if you think about the most dangerous thing he’s done, that might be it.”

...
Speaking to conservative pundit Laura Ingraham, diGenova summed up his best advice to friends: “I vote, and I buy guns. And that’s what you should do.”

He was a bit more measured a few days later in an interview with The Washington Post, saying that the United States is in a “civil war of discourse . . . a civil war of conduct,” triggered mostly by liberals and the media’s coverage of the Trump presidency. The former U.S. attorney said he owns guns mostly to make a statement, and not because he fears political insurrection among his fellow Americans.

This is despite the supposed American renaissance that Trump had created, making him greater than every other President. Why did they continue to be so discontented?

 

[Elixir]

Ignorant blowhard babies.
Time to pat them on the head and tell them it's all okay, they won the civil war, Trump is President and they never need to vote again.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Talk about being right for all the wrong reasons. If only they could recognize they are being coopted by the evil they see everywhere but where it lies. These have got to be the most assbackwards people in the history of the world. There will be many tears before history can finally laugh at this spectacle.

 

[lpetrich]

Also back in 2019: BU Historian Answers: Are We Headed for Another Civil War? | BU Today | Boston University
Interviewing Civil War historian Nina Silber.

Silber: I wouldn’t identify this most recent development [the demanding of documents] as the “beginning of a civil war” since I’m not sure that reflects anything other than the political divide we’ve already witnessed for the last several years and the fact that Democrats are taking steps they could not have taken before they regained control of the House. More ominous, I think, are indications of political violence and the willingness to enact political violence. ...

But it would have to be something else to call this a “civil war.” ... Maybe our politics and culture are moving in that direction, but I don’t see it yet.

She then noted the lack of clear geographical division this time around, from several states being very divided.

Much of the partisan divide is between urban and rural areas, with suburbs being in between. But one party or the other dominates several of the states, with the Northeast and West Coast being Democratic with Republican areas in them and the Midwest and Southeast being Republican with Democratic areas in them.

The first time around, slavery was a big issue, and it had a well-defined geographical distribution. Most of the US population was east of the Mississippi River, and the Mason-Dixon Line was a convenient dividing line. It was originally the boundary between Pennsylvania and Maryland, and with the Ohio River and with filling in some gaps, it became the dividing line between free and slave states.

The US had two states on the west coast, California and Oregon, and they were both free states. So the Civil-War geographical split has a remarkable resemblance to the present-day partisan split, but with the two parties reversed, with the Republican Party being the party of Jefferson Davis instead of the party of Abraham Lincoln.

 

[SLD]

Ignorant blowhard babies.
Time to pat them on the head and tell them it's all okay, they won the civil war, Trump is President and they never need to vote again.

No. They are a real threat. This dismissive type response is exactly what they are looking for. They don’t care about voting. They care about overturning elections and will do so through crooked and illegal procedures and outright violence.