The death of Tyre Nichols

[Oleg]

Crime was increasing for some time in Memphis.

Try harder.

Are you just flat-out denying that there was a homicide spike of black males starting May 2020?

Murders rose in cities nationwide and jurisdictions of all types. Relative to 2019, the number of murders jumped by more than 30 percent in the largest cities and by 20 percent in places designated by the FBI as “suburban” — cities with fewer than 50,000 inhabitants that are within a Metropolitan Statistical Area. Murders rose by comparable levels in rural areas too — an important fact that is only now beginning to receive press attention.

link

Rural America Reels From Violent Crime. ‘People Lost Their Ever-Lovin’ Minds.’

Murder rates didn’t soar only in cities during the pandemic. Homicide rates in rural America rose 25% in 2020, the largest rural increase since the CDC began tracking such data in 1999. Small-town sheriffs and prosecutors are overwhelmed with homicide cases.

www.wsj.com

Local prosecutor Rebecca McCoy

White County prosecutor's office expects to file close to 1,000 felony cases by close of year

Last year was described as an extraordinarily violent year in White County by 17th Judicial District Prosecuting Attorney Becky McCoy, but she said earlier this month that “this year is

www.thedailycitizen.com

“Last year, we filed for the whole year four capital murder cases. Those are ones that involve premeditation,” McCoy told the White County Quorum Court at its November meeting. “So far this year, I have filed five so far. They’re not done shooting at each other, they’re just not hitting each other very well.
“Last year, we filed two murder-firsts, one of those was a stabbing and another one was a young lady that ran over her sister’s boyfriend out there on Race Street and killed him. This year, we’ve only filed one murder-first and this year, we also filed two manslaughter cases in which the parents gave their minor child too much Benadryl and Dramamine and killed them, so these are the kind of cases that are coming through our office.”

Very, very different.

 

[Oleg]

Evasion. The point being made is that the end result of an effort to reduce black deaths actually increased black deaths.

You're both transparently misrepresenting the purpose of police reform, and asserting a dubious causation to a general upswing in violent crimes.

I'm talking about the reality, not the purpose. You don't get to ignore the bad outcome and pretend it's not part of what you intended to do and therefore doesn't matter.

You have yet to prove it's the reality. All you're doing is guessing.

So what is the alternate explanation for the homicide spike of black males starting May 2020?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The murder rate is up 20 to 25% in rural America. How is that different than the 20 to 30% murder rate hike in metropolitan/suburban America?

 

[Oleg]

The murder rate is up 20 to 25% in rural America. How is that different than the 20 to 30% murder rate hike in metropolitan/suburban America?

For a start, gun homicide is not quite the same as killing your child with Benadryl and Dramamine or running over your sister's boyfriend. And the excess deaths are nearly all urban black males. And it started in May 2020.

U.S. gun deaths surged 35% in 2020, higher for Black people - CDC

The rate of U.S. gun deaths surged 35% in 2020 to the highest point since 1994, with especially deadly levels for young Black men, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a report published on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

The rate of U.S. gun deaths surged 35% in 2020 to the highest point since 1994, with especially deadly levels for young Black men, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a report published on Tuesday.

African Americans as a whole were at least four times more likely to be killed by a gun than the overall population, and 12 times more likely than a white person, the data showed.

 

[ZiprHead]

Evasion. The point being made is that the end result of an effort to reduce black deaths actually increased black deaths.

You're both transparently misrepresenting the purpose of police reform, and asserting a dubious causation to a general upswing in violent crimes.

I'm talking about the reality, not the purpose. You don't get to ignore the bad outcome and pretend it's not part of what you intended to do and therefore doesn't matter.

You have yet to prove it's the reality. All you're doing is guessing.

So what is the alternate explanation for the homicide spike of black males starting May 2020?

Could be lots of things. Frustration about shutdowns, isolation, stimulus money used to buy weapons, Could be nothing but coincidence. But there is definitely not enough evidence to prove it's solely just one thing.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Evasion. The point being made is that the end result of an effort to reduce black deaths actually increased black deaths.

You're both transparently misrepresenting the purpose of police reform, and asserting a dubious causation to a general upswing in violent crimes.

What is the alternative explanation for the homicide spike starting May 2020 and primarily affecting black males?

Poverty? I'm not saying it's the answer. It's a suggestion of an idea for consideration among alternatives to your thesis.

Here is some data.

Income and Poverty in the United States: 2020

This report presents data on income, earnings, income inequality & poverty in the United States based on information collected in the 2021 and earlier CPS ASEC.

www.census.gov

2022 MEMPHIS POVERTY FACT SHEET

Economic stimulus checks to citizens helped to target families with children and so childhood poverty didn't take a big hit, but poverty increased in other areas.

Poverty didn't exist before May 2020?

Of course it did and at a different level pre-pandemic. What a bizarre hill you chose to die on.

Poverty does not explain the sudden homicide spike starting May 2020. Police not policing does.

Why did the police choose to stop policing at the start of the pandemic?

Not at the start of the pandemic. Then crime dropped. But in mid-May 2020, BLM began its carnage.

Drop in crime in Las Vegas during COVID-19 pandemic

Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department says there is a drop in crime in the city amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

www.ktnv.com

Coronavirus News: NYPD reports 20% drop in crime during COVID-19 emergency

Crime in New York City was down 20% during the last two weeks of March, when the city declared a coronavirus emergency, the NYPD said Thursday.

abc7ny.com

Crime was increasing for some time in Memphis.

Try harder.

Are you just flat-out denying that there was a homicide spike of black males starting May 2020?

You seem very fixated on May 2020 for some reason.

Based on articles below [1][2]:
2019 Memphis homicides: 237
2020 Memphis homicides: 327
2021 Memphis homicides: ~350 (article says 2022 is a 13% decrease from 2021)
2022: 302 homicides

I think it is plausible that persons without jobs and in a lower income bracket initially obeyed laws because the pandemic was a large unknown, but then after sitting around watching, it became apparent there were more criminal opportunities to be had. Plus, other competitive factors could have played a role such as scarcity and poverty.

[1] https://www.fox13memphis.com/news/f...ot-what-they-seem/4AUZW76CP5FK7FGSNTSC2X3JQM/
[2] https://www.localmemphis.com/articl...ates/522-7c7d4294-df69-43d0-814e-68f313137961

Your alternative explanation to an increase of 90 homicides from 2019 to 2020 in Memphis is exactly what? Clearly, you are saying it has something to do with BLM. Are you saying police didn't want to police people because BLM? Are you saying BLM killed the 90 people? Are you saying Memphis defunded the police because of BLM and that caused the homicides? Are you saying police quit their jobs because BLM? When you use extremist language like "BLM began its carnage" it doesn't sound like any of that and so could you try harder.

 

[Oleg]

Are you saying police didn't want to police people because BLM? Are you saying BLM killed the 90 people?

Yes. That's it. When the social climate is anti-cop; when the activists, politicians, and celebrities deem police pariahs, poliice stop policing or just quit. That happened in Minneapolis as well as many other cities. It's a criminal's paradise. And gun homicides just coincidentally - coincidentally - began to spike in May 2020. What a mystery! 38% spike from 2019 to 2020 in Memphis. Must be the pandemic!

 

[TomC]

Are you saying police quit their jobs because BLM?

Do you know the term "quitting at work"?

It's a vague term referring to people who are unhappy about their job. Management, working conditions, whatever the reason, but they don't just leave. They slow down. They do less when they're at work, especially the stuff that they especially dislike.

Are cops who do that, to some degree, bad cops? Or just humans being human?

And if you knew that your employer can't replace you, so they're unlikely to fire you...

Tom

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The murder rate is up 20 to 25% in rural America. How is that different than the 20 to 30% murder rate hike in metropolitan/suburban America?

For a start, gun homicide is not quite the same as killing your child with Benadryl and Dramamine or running over your sister's boyfriend. And the excess deaths are nearly all urban black males. And it started in May 2020.

U.S. gun deaths surged 35% in 2020, higher for Black people - CDC

The rate of U.S. gun deaths surged 35% in 2020 to the highest point since 1994, with especially deadly levels for young Black men, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a report published on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

You appear to be clinging to desperate measures here. I was told that lax policing caused by angry urban dwellers led to a higher crime or murder rate. Yet, when we look at the stats, the murder rate increased everywhere. And now you want to discard rural murders that are murders because the motive isn't the same. But you haven't exactly established that rural murders consisted primarily of killing children with drugs.

No one is saying that deaths in urban areas don't happen. The claim was that lax policing led to an increase. But we saw this increase everywhere, including places that aren't urban or suburban. So to this point, no one has remotely demonstrated that increased murder rates exist because of lax policing allegedly caused by angry people living in cities.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Are you saying police didn't want to police people because BLM? Are you saying BLM killed the 90 people?

Yes. That's it. When the social climate is anti-cop; when the activists, politicians, and celebrities deem police pariahs, poliice stop policing or just quit. That happened in Minneapolis as well as many other cities. It's a criminal's paradise. And gun homicides just coincidentally - coincidentally - began to spike in May 2020. What a mystery! 38% spike from 2019 to 2020 in Memphis. Must be the pandemic!

20 to 25% hike in rural areas... must be more complicated.

 

[TomC]

I was told that lax policing caused by angry urban dwellers led to a higher crime or murder rate.

I don't remember anyone referring to "urban dwellers", much less angry ones.

The problem, as I see it, is much larger than just urban areas. It's the social climate overall. "Police are oppressors, criminals are victims". "Defund the police"

We no longer live in the world of the 70s. Rural folks know about national issues as soon as the urbanites.
Tom

 

[Gospel]

This is a fact; Good policing works! Bad policing jeopardizes that work, that's what we're seeing.

Did you read the article Oleg posted a link to from Reuters?

The reason I ask is because it expands the concept of bad policing a great deal.

Is it "bad policing" if the cops generally avoid trouble?
Tom

My comment was not in reply to Oleg's post. It was a general statement. I went ahead and read one of the articles and found nothing in there that disagrees with my statement. Good read. Are you making up a statement to argue against again?

Is it "bad policing" if the cops generally avoid trouble?

By avoiding trouble what do you mean? Avoid troubles caused by criminals? Yes. Avoid breaking the law themselves? No. I'm growing tired of your projections Tom. You decry folks taking you out of contexts yet you do the same to others. Don't be a twerp & practice what you preach.

 

[Gospel]

Anyhow, lawsuits against and arrests of Police officers is not the only answer to change bad apple police culture. We need a way that sends good officers the message that we have their back and will continue to throw all our support behind them. We need a culture of professionalism with meaningful & tangible rewards (not just words and plaques) to encourage that culture. It starts with leadership and ends with the community they serve in tow. I don't know what that looks like but I'm certain that culture of professionalism already has a significant presence in Police Department's across the country. We just need to bring them out more. I know this because I see the same crap happening in the black community. A lot of us hard working folk are going unseen because all everybody wants to talk about is the fuck ups.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I was told that lax policing caused by angry urban dwellers led to a higher crime or murder rate.

I don't remember anyone referring to "urban dwellers", much less angry ones.

You've only cited a case of angry urban dwellers repeatedly in this thread.

The problem, as I see it, is much larger than just urban areas.

Oddly you have concentrated on urban ones.

We no longer live in the world of the 70s. Rural folks know about national issues as soon as the urbanites.

What, so they are doing as the Jones?

Rural Dweller: Hey Marge... urban dweller murder rates have increased this year.
Marge: Wah?!
Rural Dweller: Guess that means we better get to the killin'. 'dem murder rates ain't gonna kill themselves.
Marge: Wah?!

 

[TomC]

You've only cited a case of angry urban dwellers repeatedly in this thread.

Nobody has done that that I remember.

Perhaps you're projecting?
Tom

 

[Oleg]

Are you saying police didn't want to police people because BLM? Are you saying BLM killed the 90 people?

Yes. That's it. When the social climate is anti-cop; when the activists, politicians, and celebrities deem police pariahs, poliice stop policing or just quit. That happened in Minneapolis as well as many other cities. It's a criminal's paradise. And gun homicides just coincidentally - coincidentally - began to spike in May 2020. What a mystery! 38% spike from 2019 to 2020 in Memphis. Must be the pandemic!

20 to 25% hike in rural areas... must be more complicated.

Not really. When White County, AR, the county referenced in the WSJ article, goes from 4 to 5 homicides, that a 20% increase. 20%!!! But that doesn't explain the grossly disportinate excess homicide deaths for black males starting May 2020. We're talking thousands of additional deaths.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Are you saying police didn't want to police people because BLM? Are you saying BLM killed the 90 people?

Yes. That's it. When the social climate is anti-cop; when the activists, politicians, and celebrities deem police pariahs, poliice stop policing or just quit. That happened in Minneapolis as well as many other cities. It's a criminal's paradise. And gun homicides just coincidentally - coincidentally - began to spike in May 2020. What a mystery! 38% spike from 2019 to 2020 in Memphis. Must be the pandemic!

20 to 25% hike in rural areas... must be more complicated.

Not really. When White County, AR, the county referenced in the WSJ article, goes from 4 to 5 homicides, that a 20% increase. 20%!!! But that doesn't explain the grossly disportinate excess homicide deaths for black males starting May 2020. We're talking thousands of additional deaths.

Funny how you try to analyze this by comparing the total murder increase in a single rural county in the United States, with the aggregate increase of murders in the US in urban areas.

 

[Gospel]

Are you saying police didn't want to police people because BLM? Are you saying BLM killed the 90 people?

Yes. That's it. When the social climate is anti-cop; when the activists, politicians, and celebrities deem police pariahs, poliice stop policing or just quit. That happened in Minneapolis as well as many other cities. It's a criminal's paradise. And gun homicides just coincidentally - coincidentally - began to spike in May 2020. What a mystery! 38% spike from 2019 to 2020 in Memphis. Must be the pandemic!

20 to 25% hike in rural areas... must be more complicated.

Not really. When White County, AR, the county referenced in the WSJ article, goes from 4 to 5 homicides, that a 20% increase. 20%!!! But that doesn't explain the grossly disportinate excess homicide deaths for black males starting May 2020. We're talking thousands of additional deaths.

I'm trying to follow here. If the increase looks lopsided like this;

Example only:
Urban 2019 20% 2020 60%
Rural 2019 10% 2020 30%

I agree with you, but if it looks more like this

Urban 2019 20% 2020 45%
Rural 2019 10% 2020 30%

I agree with Jimmy.

 

[Oleg]

Are you saying police didn't want to police people because BLM? Are you saying BLM killed the 90 people?

Yes. That's it. When the social climate is anti-cop; when the activists, politicians, and celebrities deem police pariahs, poliice stop policing or just quit. That happened in Minneapolis as well as many other cities. It's a criminal's paradise. And gun homicides just coincidentally - coincidentally - began to spike in May 2020. What a mystery! 38% spike from 2019 to 2020 in Memphis. Must be the pandemic!

20 to 25% hike in rural areas... must be more complicated.

Not really. When White County, AR, the county referenced in the WSJ article, goes from 4 to 5 homicides, that a 20% increase. 20%!!! But that doesn't explain the grossly disportinate excess homicide deaths for black males starting May 2020. We're talking thousands of additional deaths.

Funny how you try to analyze this by comparing the total murder increase in a single rural county in the United States, with the aggregate increase of murders in the US in urban areas.

Dude, the relationship between the spike in the black homicide rate starting May 2020 and passive policing is kinda irrefutable. It begins in May 2020. What other factor explains that timing?

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

I find it hard to believe that beginning in May 2020, Black Lives Matter began taking extraordinary measures to kill Black lives.