The imperfect mixing only makes the chance of encountering one in his next shower even more likely. The 2.171E+27 water molecules he used last time aren't randomly chosen molecules; they're molecules selected for being very close to his shower. Which is to say, the water molecules from his last shower didn't all go down the drain. Some of them were adsorbed into the surface layer of his bar of soap; some of those are coming out in the next shower.... assuming perfect mixing the odds are effectively 100% that you'll see one of those molecules in your very next shower. (In practice the mixing won't be anything like perfect so you'll probably have to wait a bit to encounter one.)
I was thinking of the time it would take before water down the drain got recycled into the water system. You're right if he has a bar of soap to do that absorbing but he might not.
