The Economic Consequences of Opening the Economy Too Soon

[SLD]

https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-...3521-the-economic-costs-of-reopening-too-soon

Interesting article about the economic consequences of opening the economy too soon. Some workers will be forced to choose between their health and employment, and will be left without benefits if they choose health. Second, consumers won’t return if they are still afraid of the virus. But by far the worst problem would arise if there was a second wave of the pandemic. That would likely result in a far longer shutdown and a serious strain on budgets nationwide.

I thought about adding this article to the Pro Lifer says let them die thread, but I think it deserves its own thread.

For a contrary opinion there’s this article from Porter Stansberry, of Stansberry Research fame (I do read his work there).

https://americanconsequences.com/the-big-lie-behind-covid-19/

Stansberry argues that the response has done little to stop the spread, pointing out that in Germany, some testing shows that 14% of the population has been exposed and as such, this disease has a mortality rate similar to the flu.

I think the real problem is simply the lack of sufficient information about this disease. People are panicking because they simply don’t know what it will do.

SLD

 

[Trausti]

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Right-wingers want to see anger? Just think of the leftists stuck inside their homes in the city during July or August because of Shutdown II. Wanna do a lockdown protest then? They will rip you to shreds!

Regarding "the flu" comparison is that experts estimate 5 to 20% of Germany gets the flu each year (someone can correct that if wrong). Right now, with a shutdown, allegedly Germany had 14% Covid-19... which has been around since only February and during a shutdown.

What does this matter? Because there are two important numbers when discussing fatality rates. You have the percentage that die... and the number that is infected.

This disease infects a lot more people because it is relatively benign to most who get it. So you end up spreading it around amongst the healthy until it gets to those that are more susceptible. So I think it is reasonable to suggest that it is possible for easily half the nation to become infected. Half the nation becomes infected, that means a lot of people still dying, even if the fatality rate isn't through the roof.

 

[Trausti]

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Never mind that he's going to be short of customers, his business isn't going to fare well. And he's going to kill people in the process.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Sorry that this image doesn't have any poorly written signs. The dead didn't have any cardboard to write on.

 

[ronburgundy]

The upper right circle makes you highly irrational. What exactly do you think government is gaining by preventing people from working and consuming and thereby eliminating the governments own revenue? And the government has been given no new or expanded authority. The laws are unchanged.They are merely exercising emergency authorities they always had.

Anyone who believes that these temporary lockdowns are some slippery slope to permanent conditions or authoritarianism is dangerously stupid and doesn't even know what fascism is or how it functions.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

FIFY

 

[Trausti]

 

[Trausti]

Never mind that he's going to be short of customers, his business isn't going to fare well. And he's going to kill people in the process.

I'd hazard a guess that the keep the shutdown until there's a cure folks are salaried or retired, not living pay check to pay check. It's easy to be smug from that vantage point.

 

[Emily Lake]

I am in a field that is well paid, salaried, unlikely to go bankrupt (at least for a while), and that is easily adapted to working from home.

My sister works hourly in retail.

We're both taking COVID-19 seriously... but only one of us is scared about being able to afford food for herself and her kids, and whether or not she'll be evicted in a month. Luckily, my sister has a family who is willing to help her out and make sure she has what she needs for a while. But it's not sustainable long term.

I love my sister and my niece... but I really don't want them moving in with me.

There is no "good" answer here. It's a choice between truly sucky and scary options... and all of the sucky and scary variations between them.

 

[Derec]

I'd hazard a guess that the keep the shutdown until there's a cure folks are salaried or retired, not living pay check to pay check. It's easy to be smug from that vantage point.

I agree it is stupid to demand full measures to remain until there is a vaccine/at least until Christmas (as bilby wants). It is equally as stupid to reopen now. We have (maybe, if numbers are correct) barely passed the peak, but we are still at the high level. So the move by my governor (GA) and some others (including SC) to partially reopen the economy this week is just criminally negligent. We need to wait until we are in the tail region of the bell curve. Now the outbreak is still too hot and any increase in mingling will heat it up again. Also we still do not have anything close to adequate testing.

 

[barbos]

Best argument for Universal Basic income ever!

 

[Derec]

Best argument for Universal Basic income ever!

Biden-Yang 2020

 

[Politesse]

No one on the left is arguing that people should be allowed to starve to death on account of lack of income. This kind of situation is exactly why the government ought to exist, and taxes levied. Preserving lives in the face of a natural disaster is just as noble and necessary a use of our communal power and resources as fighting some stupid-ass war would be, or building giant walls or whatever the fuck you people prefer to drop trillions on. If you think it should be down to just individuals (not government) to support each other, I think you are misguided and naive but think you should put your money where your mouth is and send the man in the photo some dosh rather than arguing for policies that are just as apt to result in his death. Consider sending him your Trump check in fact, since I assume you are valiantly refusing to accept it.

 

[Arctish]

I'd hazard a guess that the keep the shutdown until there's a cure folks are salaried or retired, not living pay check to pay check. It's easy to be smug from that vantage point.

I agree it is stupid to demand full measures to remain until there is a vaccine/at least until Christmas (as bilby wants). It is equally as stupid to reopen now. We have (maybe, if numbers are correct) barely passed the peak, but we are still at the high level. So the move by my governor (GA) and some others (including SC) to partially reopen the economy this week is just criminally negligent. We need to wait until we are in the tail region of the bell curve. Now the outbreak is still too hot and any increase in mingling will heat it up again. Also we still do not have anything close to adequate testing.

I agree with Derec. Reopening the economy too soon will squander the opportunity to get on top of this crisis that closing businesses and schools has given us.

Also, I haven't heard of anyone wanting to keep the shutdown going until there's a cure. From what I gather, most people want to maintain social isolation until the rate of new infections falls significantly, and for the reopening of public spaces to happen in a controlled fashion based on reasonable evidence-based projections of likely outcomes, not some politician's 'gut feelings'. They also want widespread testing and to maintain requirements to use facemasks in settings like public transportation.

 

[Arctish]

Best argument for Universal Basic income ever!

Biden-Yang 2020

 

[TV and credit cards]

Never mind that he's going to be short of customers, his business isn't going to fare well. And he's going to kill people in the process.

I'd hazard a guess that the keep the shutdown until there's a cure folks are salaried or retired, not living pay check to pay check. It's easy to be smug from that vantage point.

I’d hazard a guess the person holding that sign is not a low wage earner, is at least in their mid-fifties, still has so little savings that after a month of being shutdown they would make a sign with such embellishments, will learn no lesson from this experience and carry just as much consumer debt after this is all over as they did before it began.

 

[bilby]

Lots of people who don't work live just fine.

This person is simply mistaken about the stakes here - they need to work to feel good about themselves.

Society won't let them simply die for lack of resources. That's the good thing about society.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Admittedly, I made it little more than half way through Stansberry’s opinion piece so if there was something beyond the, “free markets right, government wrong” argument, I missed it.
Did he mention the reason for listening to the government’s shutdown orders is because the government is listening to the medical professionals? Beyond that, I’ll be damned if I take advice about my health from a man who’s life’s work has been the accumulation of wealth.