The End of Windows?

[lpetrich]

The End of Windows – Stratechery by Ben Thompson -- a rather interesting article about which way Microsoft is currently going.

The story of Windows’ decline is relatively straightforward and a classic case of disruption:

• The Internet dramatically reduced application lock-in
• PCs became “good enough”, elongating the upgrade cycle
• Smartphones first addressed needs the PC couldn’t, then over time started taking over PC functionality directly

What is more interesting, though, is the story of Windows’ decline in Redmond, culminating with last week’s reorganization that, for the first time since 1980, left the company without a division devoted to personal computer operating systems (Windows was split, with the core engineering group placed under Azure, and the rest of the organization effectively under Office 365; there will still be Windows releases, but it is no longer a standalone business).

Not anywhere close to the end of Windows, and M$ looks like it will be supporting Windows in the near future. It is also a big turnaround from former CEO Steve Ballmer saying that Windows is central to M$'s strategies only 5 years ago. By getting into cloud computing, M$ is getting into a commodified market, one where proprietary lock-in is much more difficult, one where one has to compete on quality of products and services. It is possible to do that, and I think that that is why Adobe Photoshop is widely loved while Windows is widely hated.

but this de-emphasis suggests that its long-term future is in doubt. If Microsoft falters in supporting Windows, then PC (PeeCee?) makers will likely turn elsewhere for OSes. I suspect that they may expand their preloadings of Linux distributions and even offer preloads of Windows-compatibility software like Codeweavers Crossover.

As far as I can tell, *all* of the competition to Windows is various Unix flavors, though with different GUI and app-layer shells. So it looks like there is a sort of lock-in there also, although Unix is an open standard with some open-source implementations.


Looking back on the history of M$, that company has had limited success in creating proprietary lock-in monopolies. Though it has succeeded with DOS, Windows, and Office, it has failed several times. It failed with PDA's, MP3 music players, and most recently, smartphones. Its Surface tablets are still continuing, though overshadowed by iOS and Android ones, and its Xbox game consoles continue to do well against Sony's Playstations.

 

[Phil Scott]

I was predicting the end of Youtube around 2008 after Google took over.

I've given up on this prediction stuff.

 

[lpetrich]

I was predicting the end of Youtube around 2008 after Google took over.

Any reason for it disappearing?

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Windows will not disappear while software like AutoCad only runs on Windows. If and when the day comes that Windows isn't needed for such Windows only applications, we might see Windows go belly up slowly. The other problem is proprietary software written for a company that runs only on Windows and may not ever gracefully be able to run under Linux, and the idea of rewriting it to run on Linux is not a viable idea monetarily. There are lots of machine shops still running software for machine tools using DOS.

 

[Underseer]

Gasp!

I don't game as much as I used to, but surely you don't expect me to game on a[ent]hellip[/ent] console. Ew.

 

[lpetrich]

Gasp!

I don't game as much as I used to, but surely you don't expect me to game on a[ent]hellip[/ent] console. Ew.

Windows != PeeCees. I'm sure that if M$ falters with Windows that desktop computers will continue to be made and continue to be usable. I suspect that PeeCee makers will do a lot of preloading of Linux instead of Windows.

 

[lpetrich]

Windows will not disappear while software like AutoCad only runs on Windows. If and when the day comes that Windows isn't needed for such Windows only applications, we might see Windows go belly up slowly. The other problem is proprietary software written for a company that runs only on Windows and may not ever gracefully be able to run under Linux, and the idea of rewriting it to run on Linux is not a viable idea monetarily. There are lots of machine shops still running software for machine tools using DOS.

How do they run DOS? I don't think that there are any recent desktop computers capable of running DOS in standalone fashion.

Do they run DOS inside some virtual machine? Or use some DOS emulator?

These solutions can also be used for Windows, though Windows is much more heavyweight.

 

[bilby]

I understand that a lot of single purpose computers, such as ATMs, slot machines and set top TV decoders, still run a cut-down version of Windows XP called XPe - these systems are typically less vulnerable to malware than PCs due to having a much smaller attack surface, as they include only the minimum required elements of the OS to run the machine in which they are embedded. (The 'e' in XPe stands for 'embedded').

 

[lpetrich]

I think that I ran into some of those. I once saw one of BART's ticket machines with a Blue Screen of Death. BART = San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit urban-rail system.

 

[Malintent]

The end user, desktop / laptop will be running some form of Windows or embedded windows for quite a long time.
the servers that are the internet, and all of the infrastructure, and corporation's datacenters, and Amazon / Google, even Microsoft's own Cloud solutions, are becoming more and more LINUX by the day.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Windows will not disappear while software like AutoCad only runs on Windows. If and when the day comes that Windows isn't needed for such Windows only applications, we might see Windows go belly up slowly. The other problem is proprietary software written for a company that runs only on Windows and may not ever gracefully be able to run under Linux, and the idea of rewriting it to run on Linux is not a viable idea monetarily. There are lots of machine shops still running software for machine tools using DOS.

How do they run DOS? I don't think that there are any recent desktop computers capable of running DOS in standalone fashion.

Do they run DOS inside some virtual machine? Or use some DOS emulator?

These solutions can also be used for Windows, though Windows is much more heavyweight.

The controller boxes that connect to the mill or machine at bottom ran DOS, or QNX or some such. Upgrading that is a bitch so as long as it works, don't mess with it. Programming a CNC machine is done on software that talks to the controller. It doesn't care what the controller's OS is, as long as it can handle one of the standard SW systems that talks to the controller. Standards that work, have been thoroughly debugged and are widely understood and are utterly reliable. When you are milling an expensive chunk of metal, reliability is the gold standard. If it works, it isn't stupid.

 

[KeepTalking]

Developers are abandoning Windows in droves. I was one of the last devs in my shop to move to a Mac, and they had to drag me kicking and screaming into the Apple ecosystem. I actually didn't have much of a choice, as I am now developing mobile apps, and you simply cannot develop for iOS on a PC. That was about a month or two ago, and it only took me a couple of days to come to the realization that Mac has a far better OS for my line of work, even if I didn't have the need to develop for iOS. If I really need to do something Windows related, I use Parallels to run a Windows VM, and it works like a charm. I have really only had to do that a couple of times, and only to test in IE and Edge.

On the other hand, all of my home computers run Windows, because my wife and I are both gamers, and Macs are shit for gaming. Even if they had better support for more games, I would still be inclined to use PCs running Windows at home, as I can build a pretty powerful gaming rig myself at less than half the price of a Mac. So, I agree that Windows is certainly in decline, but I don't see it going away any time soon.

 

[lpetrich]

... There are lots of machine shops still running software for machine tools using DOS.

How do they run DOS? ...

The controller boxes that connect to the mill or machine at bottom ran DOS, or QNX or some such. Upgrading that is a bitch so as long as it works, don't mess with it. Programming a CNC machine is done on software that talks to the controller. It doesn't care what the controller's OS is, as long as it can handle one of the standard SW systems that talks to the controller. Standards that work, have been thoroughly debugged and are widely understood and are utterly reliable. When you are milling an expensive chunk of metal, reliability is the gold standard. If it works, it isn't stupid.

So it's more like an embedded system. There are still plenty of 8-bit, 16-bit, and 32-bit CPU chips in production, and they are for embedded duty. I wouldn't be surprised if many of them are OS-less or with stripped-down or rudimentary OSes like DOS.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

The controller boxes that connect to the mill or machine at bottom ran DOS, or QNX or some such. Upgrading that is a bitch so as long as it works, don't mess with it. Programming a CNC machine is done on software that talks to the controller. It doesn't care what the controller's OS is, as long as it can handle one of the standard SW systems that talks to the controller. Standards that work, have been thoroughly debugged and are widely understood and are utterly reliable. When you are milling an expensive chunk of metal, reliability is the gold standard. If it works, it isn't stupid.

So it's more like an embedded system. There are still plenty of 8-bit, 16-bit, and 32-bit CPU chips in production, and they are for embedded duty. I wouldn't be surprised if many of them are OS-less or with stripped-down or rudimentary OSes like DOS.

Yes, embedded is the proper word for this.For years and years, basic machine tools used embedded systems that were reliable and well understood.

 

[steve_bank]

Windows may be the greatest development of modern times. Unless you were there you would not see it.

In the early 80s there were a number of competing OS that fell by the wayside.

Early on what set MS apart was a set of effective software development tools that were complicated but effective, and allowed software to be written anywhere in the world and run on any computer. That opened the flood gates on commercial software.

Before that electronics system manufacturers had to develop their own OS, often written by on person and hard to maintain after the programmer left.

Interoperability between software written by different sources was a major break through.

I can buy an engineering tool and export-import data from any Windows package.

The down side is paying the periodic MS tax when your OS version is obsoleted. What you pay for is the guarantee that MS will not drop Windows or go out of business. A common problem with business software in the 70s-80s.

Something not well known. Along with windows it was the C programming language that came out of Digital Equipment as a universal platform independent tool that enabled Windows and most of the early commercial development. Bless you Kernigie and Ritche.

Embedded Windows is everywhere. It could be in your washing machine. Self contained low cost computer boards running Windows is common. Makes easier for hardware and software development. You can order one on line, hook up a display and keyboard and you are up and running. Major reduction in product development costs.

 

[Bronzeage]

Windows will not disappear while software like AutoCad only runs on Windows. If and when the day comes that Windows isn't needed for such Windows only applications, we might see Windows go belly up slowly. The other problem is proprietary software written for a company that runs only on Windows and may not ever gracefully be able to run under Linux, and the idea of rewriting it to run on Linux is not a viable idea monetarily. There are lots of machine shops still running software for machine tools using DOS.

How do they run DOS? I don't think that there are any recent desktop computers capable of running DOS in standalone fashion.

Do they run DOS inside some virtual machine? Or use some DOS emulator?

These solutions can also be used for Windows, though Windows is much more heavyweight.

A of of the early computer controlled machines were 286 or 386 processors. Old machines driven by old computers can still be found in some shops.

 

[J842P]

Windows may be the greatest development of modern times. Unless you were there you would not see it.

In the early 80s there were a number of competing OS that fell by the wayside.

Early on what set MS apart was a set of effective software development tools that were complicated but effective, and allowed software to be written anywhere in the world and run on any computer. That opened the flood gates on commercial software.

Before that electronics system manufacturers had to develop their own OS, often written by on person and hard to maintain after the programmer left.

Interoperability between software written by different sources was a major break through.

I can buy an engineering tool and export-import data from any Windows package.

The down side is paying the periodic MS tax when your OS version is obsoleted. What you pay for is the guarantee that MS will not drop Windows or go out of business. A common problem with business software in the 70s-80s.

Something not well known. Along with windows it was the C programming language that came out of Digital Equipment as a universal platform independent tool that enabled Windows and most of the early commercial development. Bless you Kernigie and Ritche.

Embedded Windows is everywhere. It could be in your washing machine. Self contained low cost computer boards running Windows is common. Makes easier for hardware and software development. You can order one on line, hook up a display and keyboard and you are up and running. Major reduction in product development costs.

My impression is that the leader in embedded OS is Embedded Linux or FreeRTOS. Hell, I bet even full-blown Debian/Ubuntu is more common than embedded Windows. I thought C came out of IBM and coincided with Unix.

 

[barbos]

Windows will not disappear while software like AutoCad only runs on Windows. If and when the day comes that Windows isn't needed for such Windows only applications, we might see Windows go belly up slowly. The other problem is proprietary software written for a company that runs only on Windows and may not ever gracefully be able to run under Linux, and the idea of rewriting it to run on Linux is not a viable idea monetarily. There are lots of machine shops still running software for machine tools using DOS.

You can't run AutoCad under Wine? I think the future is OS agnostic software using additional layer of abstraction between OS and software.

 

[steve_bank]

The controller boxes that connect to the mill or machine at bottom ran DOS, or QNX or some such. Upgrading that is a bitch so as long as it works, don't mess with it. Programming a CNC machine is done on software that talks to the controller. It doesn't care what the controller's OS is, as long as it can handle one of the standard SW systems that talks to the controller. Standards that work, have been thoroughly debugged and are widely understood and are utterly reliable. When you are milling an expensive chunk of metal, reliability is the gold standard. If it works, it isn't stupid.

So it's more like an embedded system. There are still plenty of 8-bit, 16-bit, and 32-bit CPU chips in production, and they are for embedded duty. I wouldn't be surprised if many of them are OS-less or with stripped-down or rudimentary OSes like DOS.

Many embedded applications do not need an OS. There are commercial OS packages you pay a licence for with microcontrollers.

In embedded apps you often need what is called a monitor you can log onto thru a serial port. You can run digmostics for one thing.

My last major projecs was a controller for a building energy management system. I used a Cypress Field Programable Gate Arry configured as a Power PC with Linux loaded in the chip memory. Linux is common in embeded apps.

Depending on the size pf project an OS makes software developemt a lot easier.

If you want to play around with embedded microcontrolers look at the Microchip web site. Cheap demo boards and tools are free. There are demo boards that connect to the C thru USB. You can write code to turn lights on and off and other things. Very instructive as to how computer systems work.

 

[steve_bank]

Windows will not disappear while software like AutoCad only runs on Windows. If and when the day comes that Windows isn't needed for such Windows only applications, we might see Windows go belly up slowly. The other problem is proprietary software written for a company that runs only on Windows and may not ever gracefully be able to run under Linux, and the idea of rewriting it to run on Linux is not a viable idea monetarily. There are lots of machine shops still running software for machine tools using DOS.

You can't run AutoCad under Wine? I think the future is OS agnostic software using additional layer of abstraction between OS and software.

OS independent apps are called interpreters. They run very slow. Any application has to reduce to machine code on the platform.

Major enginnering apps will have distributions for multiplr OS.

There are high level tools that will take C code and generate binaries for different platforms.

In Windows the system resources make large apps a lot easier to develop.