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The Race For 2024

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RFK Jr. Super Bowl ad for stirs Democratic, family tension | AP News
Some members of his family have publicly criticized his views. Dozens of Kennedy family members sent a message when they posed with Biden at a St. Patrick’s Day reception at the White House in a photo his sister Kerry Kennedy posted to social media.

“He’s a spoiler. He’s tried to coast on his family legacy and the goodwill they have in the African American community,” Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. Austin Davis said of Kennedy on a conference call with reporters organized by the DNC. “But the Kennedy family has denounced this lame attempt and they’ve quite frankly stood with President Biden.”
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Republicans?
“Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is a far-left radical that supports reparations, backs the Green New Deal, and wants to ban fracking,” said Alex Pfeiffer, a spokesperson for the pro-Trump super PAC Make America Great Again Inc. “It’s no surprise he would pick a Biden donor leftist as his running mate.”
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RFK Jr. Super Bowl ad for stirs Democratic, family tension | AP News
Bobby Shriver, whose mother, Eunice Kennedy Shriver, founded the Special Olympics, hammered his cousin over the spot and his opposition to vaccines for COVID-19 and other diseases.

“My cousin’s Super Bowl ad used our uncle’s faces- and my Mother’s,” Shriver wrote. “She would be appalled by his deadly health care views. Respect for science, vaccines, & health care equity were in her DNA.”

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At one time, Kennedy was a leading environmental activist, and he was among the younger Kennedy family members who would speak at Democratic Party conventions and events. He has in recent years delved into conspiracy theories and become a face of the anti-vaccine movement.
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RFK Jr.'s family feud: Battle for Kennedy name heats up
An extraordinary public feud between Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his family has taken on new urgency in recent weeks, as Democrats fear the power of Kennedy nostalgia could spoil President Biden's re-election.
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Kennedy running mates have taken a steep fall sine LBJ.
 
Although recent news seems to favor Biden, Betfair still shows Trump more likely to win in November, 45% vs 40%.
Polymarket is even worse, 50% vs 42%.

If my math is correct, and we agree that Trump gets Florida and Biden gets Minnesota; THEN the election will go to whoever wins FOUR out of 7 swing states: Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina.
(PA has more than three times the EVs of Nevada, so this "4 out of 7" is a simplistic approximation. HOWEVER I think it works in most cases.)
 
Biden-Harris are "taking the gloves off." Noting that Trump hasn't been campaigning much*, they posted to Xwitter a glimpse at his daily schedule:
8 AM: hair

10 AM: hide in basement

12 PM: lunch with white nationalists

1 PM: try to sell special TRUMP-APPROVED Bibles to pay bills

1:30 PM: Project 2025 planning call

2 PM: hide in basement

5 PM: sit in golf cart

6:30 PM: hide in basement

10 PM: begin posting disturbed, confused, typo-riddled rants on Truth Social
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(* - I think Trump is focused on figuring how to bypass the law and extract a few billions of quick cash from the gullible rubes who bought into the DJT meme stock.)
 
I've gotta admit, this story made me giggle;

www.businessinsider.com

A Texas man is running for president after changing his name to 'Literally Anybody Else'

"America should not be stuck choosing between the 'King of Debt' (his self-declaration) and an 81-year old," Else wrote on his campaign website.
www.businessinsider.com www.businessinsider.com

A Texas man says he believes anybody else should be president instead of the current Democratic and GOP frontrunners.

And he's taking things into his own hands and running a long shot race to prove a point — by changing his name to "Literally Anybody Else."

"America should not be stuck choosing between the 'King of Debt' (his self-declaration) and an 81-year old. Literally Anybody Else isn't a person, it's a rally cry," read Else's campaign website, referencing former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden.
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GOP primary showed Trump’s warning signs in suburbs and exurbs - POLITICO - "Primary results from more than 1,000 counties show clear warning signs for Trump with Republican voters in exurbs and small towns."
The battle for Trump-skeptical Republican voters isn’t just about the suburbs.

It’s true that the hundreds of thousands of GOP primary voters who voted against former President Donald Trump this year were concentrated in highly educated, suburban areas that have swung blue over the past decade.

But a POLITICO analysis shows there’s also a significant bloc of voters who did not want Trump in more exurban, red-leaning counties — the kinds of places that were skeptical of Trump in the 2016 GOP primary and, while largely voting for him in the 2016 and 2020 general elections, have remained somewhat resistant to his takeover of the Republican Party.
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Shows how much DT has been the Mule of American politics.
Republicans are banking on the fact that partisanship usually wins out. This is far from the first contentious primary to leave bruised egos and hurt feelings, and usually the vast majority of voters come home to their party’s presidential nominee eventually. By Election Day, voters tend to return to their partisan camps.
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That they will all be yellow-dog Republicans, willing to vote for any yellow dog of a politician who just so happens to be a Republican.
 
Trump's VP search is starting to get serious - POLITICO - "The former president is considering around a dozen contenders, though the list is in flux."
While who is up or down seemingly changes by the minute, the list has included everyone from Tim Scott and Kristi Noem to Byron Donalds, Elise Stefanik, Tulsi Gabbard and J.D. Vance, whom Trump has called a “fighter.”

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The former president has said his top criterion is picking someone “who is going to be a good president … in case of emergency.” But Trump is also sensitive to electoral needs, and part of the consideration is having someone who can help expand his appeal in November.

The names under consideration continue to be in flux, according to multiple people familiar with the list, who describe it as being in “pencil, not pen.” But it includes Sens. Scott of South Carolina, Vance of Ohio, Katie Britt of Alabama and Marco Rubio of Florida, as well as Govs. Noem of South Dakota, Sarah Huckabee Sanders of Arkansas and Doug Burgum of North Dakota. Donalds, the Florida representative, and Gabbard, the former Hawaii representative, among others, are also being considered or have been floated by Trump.

Trump seems to relish the guessing game — which has been going on since he announced his third White House bid in November 2022, but has intensified since he clinched the nomination in March.
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Hill GOP to Trump: Tamp down the talk of grudges and Jan. 6 - POLITICO - "They’re concerned about a rerun of the hair-pulling past — where Republican candidates in battleground races are constantly challenged to answer for his more erratic statements."
Trump’s call for a challenger to Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Fla.), the only House Republican from DeSantis’ state to endorse the Florida governor in the primary, reveals a campaign with little interest in courting his former rivals and their supporters. But as President Joe Biden makes a play for Nikki Haley voters who might be reluctant to back Trump, Republicans are starting to nudge the former president to at least try to tone it down.

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Trump is unlikely to heed such warnings to pivot to a more consistent general election message. So far this month, he has said that Jewish Americans who vote for Democrats “hate” their religion and described some migrants as “not people.”

But the fact that Hill Republicans are even attempting to refocus him, underscored by nearly 20 interviews with lawmakers and aides, illustrates their real worries about a 2024 cycle where their electoral fates are inescapably tied to the man at the top of the ticket.

The former president “needs to be sensitive to where he’s strong and where he’s weak in the electoral map,” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.).

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Atop of the list of topics some Republicans want Trump to avoid: his attempts to revise the violent history of the Capitol attack by his supporters and his description of people convicted of riot-related crimes as “patriots.”

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Trump’s confrontational style has never fully rubbed off on his party; Republicans often succeed in battleground states by running more conventional candidates — who still have to respond to nearly everything Trump does once they offer him their support.
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‘A lot of bad blood’: Donald Trump still isn’t reaching out to Nikki Haley - POLITICO - "The former president has made no outreach to Haley, a Trump adviser confirmed."

Trump is not only a sore loser, he's a sore winner.
 
Trump May Already Be Looking for His Own Successor
Donald Trump's 2024 vice-presidential pick will "likely" be the Republicans' 2028 presidential candidate and "serve as president for the next eight years following President Trump's term," according to a GOP lawmaker.

The claim was made by Montana Senator Steve Daines in an interview with Politico. The outlet reported Trump "floats an expansive list of names" in private conversations to pick his potential running mate.

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Trump later told Fox News that Texas Governor Greg Abbott was "absolutely" on his shortlist, calling him a "spectacular man." Abbott has won widespread Republican approval over his efforts to stop irregular migration from Mexico into Texas, including constructing large razor-wire fences and other physical barriers as well as the deployment of thousands of National Guard troops.

During an interview with Newsmax in March, Trump suggested he had ruled out "some people" who hadn't "behaved properly." He also said he has some candidates in mind "that you may know very well."

The presumptive Republican nominee added: "We have a lot of great people in the Republican Party, and they'll do a terrific job, I think, but certainly I have people that I wouldn't want as a vice president."
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That list: SC Sen. Tim Scott, SD Gov. Kristi Noem, FL Rep. Byron Donalds, NY Rep. Elise Stefanik, Fmr. HI Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, OH Sen. J.D. Vance, AL Sen. Katie Britt, FL Sen. Marco Rubio, AR Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Fmr. ND Gov. Doug Burgum
 
Potential Trump VP Pick Byron Donalds Once Slammed ‘Self-Promoter’ Trump Online
Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL), considered by many to be on Donald Trump’s short list of potential vice president candidates, used to harshly criticize the former president online, railing against him for his trade policies and birtherism comments about Barack Obama.

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That included a Facebook post by Donalds in May of 2011 in which he insinuated that he was relieved Trump wasn’t going to make a push for the White House in 2012.

“Trump won’t run,” he wrote. “Thank God!”
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Preferring Mitt Romney.
“Trump is a huge distraction, and cares more about himself than the country in my opinion,” he wrote, adding that he personally could “care less about him.”

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“I don’t question his religion or his citizenship,” Donalds said of Obama. “Quite a few Democrats and liberals still think Bush caused 9/11.”

In another post that year, Donalds wrote that Trump was a “self-promoter.” He also took aim at Obama, claiming he was jetting around the country doing events while “the American people suffer from rising food costs, rising gas costs, rising healthcare costs, rising debt, and a weaker America.”
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A spokesperson said in response
“President Trump is considering Byron as his running mate because of the Congressman’s steadfast support for the 45th President and his historic policy agenda,” he said, according to CNN. “The fact that these decade-old posts are now resurfacing in the middle of running mate deliberations is weak but typical of CNN.”
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Other former critics are on that list, like Marco Rubio and Elise Stefanik.
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), reportedly on the list as well, also criticized Trump’s rhetoric in his first term, calling out his disparaging remarks on Muslims and his misogynist comments.
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Let's not forget about Nikki Haley once saying that Trump is someone they warned us about in kindergarten, and Ted Cruz calling him a pathological liar.

All before they became hard-core Trumpies.
 
Republicans Panic About Their Money Problems
Biden raised nearly $127 million to compete against Trump by the end of February, with about $71 million cash on hand, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) data. Last week, he raised an additional $25 million at a New York City fundraiser. Trump had raised only about $99 million in the period, with about $33.5 million in cash on hand, according to FEC data.
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Nice to see Republicans running scared about that.
Several prominent conservatives have called attention to Republicans' fundraising issues, which could be further complicated by some donations to the Republican National Committee (RNC) going toward Trump's legal bills in his various criminal cases.
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It's their mess, and they brought it on themselves for being unwilling to purge him from the party when it was relatively easy, like voting yes to impeach him.
U.S. Army veteran Peter Henlein, a conservative who has been critical of Trump, warned about down-ballot fundraising effects in a post to X.

"The combination of terrible MAGA candidates (Moreno, Lake etc) + Trumps's drag on all down ballot candidates + terrible RNC fundraising = the GOP is going to completely waste the most favorable Senate map for Republicans of our lifetimes," he wrote.
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Something that will be very welcome.
 
Opinion | Trump Is Financially Ruining the Republican Party - The New York Times
Donald Trump is someone you should think carefully about hitching your financial fortunes to. The guy is a gifted carnival barker, no doubt. But when it comes to serious business, he is a bad bet. Many of his ventures, from vodka and steaks to casinos and “university” degrees, have flopped like dying fish. Declaring corporate bankruptcy seems to be one of his favorite hobbies. And even when he wriggles away from failure largely unscathed, the other parties involved aren’t always so fortunate. Where money is involved, anyone still foolish enough to crawl into bed with him should be prepared for the experience to end in tears.

Which leads me to gently note: Hey, Republican Party, pay attention! You are being herded toward potential financial ruin. The red flags are smacking you in the face. Wake up and smell the grift!
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Donald Trump has pursued a strategy of winning by litigation, and that means a *lot* of litigation, like appealing and appealing and appealing.
Asked last month if she thought Republican voters would support the Republican National Committee footing Mr. Trump’s legal costs, Lara Trump, soon to be the committee’s co-chair, declared, “Absolutely.” I mean, what else is a good daughter-in-law supposed to say? Still, this possibility has raised enough eyebrows among donors that another Trump lackey, Chris LaCivita, who now oversees the R.N.C.’s operations, has vowed that committee funds will not be used for such.

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So to review: Under the new fund-raising agreement, the entity handling Mr. Trump’s legal bills takes its bite before the party committees receive a penny. That smells about right.
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So the RNC won't be paying Trump's legal bills because the contributions that go to the RNC go to Trum's legal bills before they reach the RNC.

Some state parties in battleground states have lots of internal squabbling, like those of AZ, GA, and MI. Inside the GOP’s State Party Problem - The New York Times
But across the map, state parties have become combat zones for the broader struggles inside the G.O.P. between the party’s old guard and its ascendant Trump wing, with rifts that can prove divisive and costly.
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Back to my first link. The Republicans have a chance in the Senate, but in the House, they are much more vulnerable.
Kevin McCarthy might have been a weasel, but he knew how to work donors, which is an important part of the job. Mike Johnson has many fine qualities, I’m sure. But he lacks Mr. McCarthy’s donor network and schmoozing skills. His ultraconservative religious positions are said to make some people uneasy, and — how do I put this gently? — he doesn’t exactly radiate competent leadership.
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And the conservative Florida Supreme Court ruled Florida will have a marijuana and abortion amendment on the ballot. Both measures need 60% to pass. This is good for the right-wing, bad for the right-wing. 60% is a relatively high bar that is only easily attained by gerrymandering or being a 4 term incumbent. But... Rick Scott is also on the ballot. Rick 'Wanna cut Social Security' Scott. Florida is probably the best chance for a seat swap to go in favor of the Democrats in a Senate electoral map that is hostile to Senate Democrats this year.

And Trump also has to win Florida. And generally Florida has been reddish recently. But it isn't dark red. So Trump needs to hold onto that state, which means money. Money the RNC might not have available. And in good conditions having to spend a fortune for the state, senate, and an abortion referendum, would still steal cash for the other states Trump needs. States that the Democrats will be aimed at protecting.

Florida is going to be all hands on deck for the Democrats, liberals, progressives, and women that want to retain the right to their body. This is going to possibly make life hell for people that live in Florida. I'd buy shares in streaming companies that off ad-free options, because that'll be a life line to the media consumers in the state.
 
If they go for Biden, legalize weed and abortion, I might move there. I have always loved (some of) it.
 
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