The Race For 2024

[Politesse]

It seems the topic Biden is weakest on is the economy. The deluded masses actually think inflation has hurt them, even though it is down from its peak. What do they know about the general state of the economy? All they know about is their grocery bill and the price of gas, which doesn't tell them anything they need to know.

Having talked to some older family members about this recently, it seems that they mean something very different by "ending inflation" than what an economist means by "slowing inflation". They are hoping the prices of everything will actually go back down "to what it used to be", not understanding or desiring to know what it would connote about the overall economy if everything suddenly cost 90s prices.

 

[Politesse]

This certainly does seem ridiculous. Trump is charged with 90+ felonies, is a traitor allied with Russia and the other worst geopolitical players; plans on fascist rule; and is a malignant narcissist.

His core voters are fascists, and not a little bit narcissistic as well. They always were. A mix of constitutional precedent and gentleman's rules about "how business is done in Washington" held back the crazy for many decades, but it was never going to hold it back forever. Too many Americans are more afraid of their neighbors than they are of their government.

 

[Ford]

It seems the topic Biden is weakest on is the economy. The deluded masses actually think inflation has hurt them, even though it is down from its peak. What do they know about the general state of the economy? All they know about is their grocery bill and the price of gas, which doesn't tell them anything they need to know.

Having talked to some older family members about this recently, it seems that they mean something very different by "ending inflation" than what an economist means by "slowing inflation". They are hoping the prices of everything will actually go back down "to what it used to be", not understanding or desiring to know what it would connote about the overall economy if everything suddenly cost 90s prices.

Well that's the whole sales pitch isn't it?

Your uncle who spouts off at Thanksgiving dinner thinks that Trump will somehow magically make it so that gas is under two bucks a gallon, the dollar menu comes back at McDonald's, and he can buy a new Chevy for under 20 grand.

Ask them to point to what - exactly - is Trump's (or the GOP's) plan to accomplish this, and the answer is some vagaries about immigration and China.

It is also worth noting that many of these "I remember the good old days" folks are retired, living off their 401ks, and while they see their grocery and gas bill going up, have no idea what it's like for a Gen Z person trying to get by. I remember seeing a cartoon back in the 80s where a woman in an upscale singles bar asks the guy hitting on her "look, are you making $40,000 a year or am I wasting my time with you?"

Times have changed.

Trump and the GOP are appealing to the crowd that thinks $40k a year should be good enough to get a nice apartment and an entry level Porsche.

 

[Politesse]

and an entry level Porsche.

I don't want to minimize the horror that "late stage capitalism" inflicts on those whose income is fixed but whose expenses are not. Young people are not the only party for whom inflation is painful. But I definitely think that there is a severe generational misunderstanding about what the labor market is like today. This drove the animus between boomers and millennials when I was young adult, but the gap was dialect level then. It's on the scale of wholly different languages now. Older folks have no idea how people make money or put a roof over their heads, nor understand how they feel about it. And that includes some economists who are working past their ideal retirement date.

 

[laughing dog]

Older folks have no idea how people make money or put a roof over their heads, nor understand how they feel about it. And that includes some economists who are working past their ideal retirement date.

When did we meet?

 

[Derec]

It wasn’t.

Is there an argument here, or are you just automatically gainsaying everything I write?

The past effect of inflation is with us regardless of its past size or speed.

Thank you, Captain Obvious (or should that be Commodore Oblivious?)
There is a major difference between prices rising 16% over 3 years vs. over 9-10 years.

 

[Derec]

No, it was by an employee. Not everyone that works at CNBC is left wing.

It was released by the organization. And CNBC is pretty even keeled, unlike left-wing MSNBC.

A cumulative graph that starts when Biden took office. Unless they did the same with Trump or other presidents or heads of state, it's highly partisan bullshit.

That's the first one I found. And since we are talking about Biden's reelection prospects in this thread, it it salient.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Older folks have no idea how people make money or put a roof over their heads, nor understand how they feel about it. And that includes some economists who are working past their ideal retirement date.

When did we meet?

Not sure Poli's message. Sounds rather bizzarro. I'm old now but I remember being young. I also remember realizing that I would not enjoy the security my parents enjoyed in their golden years because economic conditions had changed. Maybe that's what is being said, which means the message is some self serving bullshit, at least as I see it.

 

[Derec]

Telling half truths is why so many people that are doing better but still see the economy as bad.

People can see the prices they pay without anyone telling half truths.
Now, if their income rose faster than prices, they are objectively ahead. It still feels psychologically bad to pay more though.
For other people, income rose less than prices. They are objectively worse off.
Those that seek loans for major purchases like cars and houses similarly feel the crunch of higher interest rates. As do those with credit card debt.
Think of a young couple seeking to buy their first home. They are hit by a double whammy of higher prices and much higher interest rates than a similar couple seeking to buy in 2019.

 

[Politesse]

Older folks have no idea how people make money or put a roof over their heads, nor understand how they feel about it. And that includes some economists who are working past their ideal retirement date.

When did we meet?

Not sure Poli's message. Sounds rather bizzarro. I'm old now but I remember being young. I also remember realizing that I would not enjoy the security my parents enjoyed in their golden years because economic conditions had changed. Maybe that's what is being said, which means the message is some self serving bullshit, at least as I see it.

Self serving? How so? I am coming into a comfortable middle age, and have a very old-fashioned, professional job with a healthy pension coming my way. I don't have a house, but I could afford one near my workplace if I wanted it.

But very few people under the age of twenty have any such thing, nor any reasonable hope of the same. Doing what the political parties tell them they ought to be doing at 18 or 19 - "honest" but non-unionized wage labor, a monogamous marriage with kids, borrowing money to buy property with, constantly using a credit card to "improve their score" - will leave them in lifelong poverty. And education, though still valuable if you are already rich, is a leaky raft out of the ghetto. They just don't have the same kind of investment that their parents did in the continuation of the neoliberal status quo, and the dangerous thing is that they know it. If you mean that they are self serving for trying to find ways to survive beyond the useless models proposed to them by elder generations unaware of how the world has changed, I'm not sure what else you would expect someone to be. Everyone has to eat. Everyone needs a roof over their head. I guess that's "self-serving", but if so I fail to see how being self-serving is any kind of moral failing.

 

[Derec]

Polymarket now shows Trump 56%, Biden 37% to win in November. Betfair shows 53% vs 35%.

Recent polls are also not very favorable to Biden.

There are legitimate criticisms of how Biden governed his first term or how he has conducted his reelection campaign. Those of us who offer critique should not be dismissed like you are others are doing.
I voted for Biden, and will likely vote for him again. I will definitely not vote for Trump. That does not mean I have to agree with everything Biden is doing.

This certainly does seem ridiculous. Trump is charged with 90+ felonies,

That is a problem. I think they overplayed their hand by piling on too many cases, too many charges. It does look like a political witch hunt worthy of Witchfinder Sergeant Shadwell himself (I bet Trump has a third nipple too).
Take the NYC case. Bragg invented new legal theories to charge a misdemeanor as a felony while at the same time downgrading clear-cut felonies such as armed robberies as misdemeanors. It sure seems political, and will just boost him politically, no matter the outcome - of course, the boost will be highest if he is acquitted.
Trump should only have been charged in a maximum of two strong cases such as the documents case and the fake elector case. Stormy Daniels hush money is a distraction.

And yet, Trump really is likely to win! Consult Thom Hartmann's free newsletter. Does this link work?

What Will Be Trump's "October Surprise"?

Such an action could swing our election toward Trump, but also risks provoking a third world war...

open.substack.com

Speaking of traitors allied with Russia, is Thom still doing that show on "Russia Today"?

 

[laughing dog]

It wasn’t.

Is there an argument here, or are you just automatically gainsaying everything I write?

Apparently reading posts (try #3295)with comprehension is getting difficult for you.

The past effect of inflation is with us regardless of its past size or speed.

Thank you, Captain Obvious (or should that be Commodore Oblivious?)

Pretty ironic coming from the author of "Usually not this quickly. In 2022, inflation peaked at 9%. That is still with us even if the inflation rate ..."

There is a major difference between prices rising 16% over 3 years vs. over 9-10 years.

Your wrote"I was looking for a cumulative inflation graph and found this one. People are sensitive to price increases even if they get raises. That explains why people feel bad about the economy despite good metrics." If that is true, then it doesn't matter what the previous inflation rates were - people should have the same bad feeling if he price level rose by 1% over the past year or 16% over the past 3 years.

Clearly that is not really true (as you seem to tacitly admit with your response about 16%).

 

[Politesse]

There are legitimate criticisms of how Biden governed his first term or how he has conducted his reelection campaign. Those of us who offer critique should not be dismissed like you are others are doing.

Why not? If someone is convinced that a genocide has occurred, or that there is runaway inflation, don't you think wagging your finger at them shamefully will change their mind? I mean, it's always worked so well in the past.

 

[Derec]

It is also worth noting that many of these "I remember the good old days" folks are retired, living off their 401ks, and while they see their grocery and gas bill going up, have no idea what it's like for a Gen Z person trying to get by.

Well, maybe Gen Z would have had an easier time of it were they not so enamored of "quiet quitting" in the aftermath of the Pandemic largess.

I remember seeing a cartoon back in the 80s where a woman in an upscale singles bar asks the guy hitting on her "look, are you making $40,000 a year or am I wasting my time with you?"
Times have changed.

The amounts have changed, but the gold diggers are sadly still with us.

 

[Derec]

But very few people under the age of twenty have any such thing, nor any reasonable hope of the same.

Aren't you a college professor? Those types of careers will be with us still. Probably too many in certain fields.

Doing what the political parties tell them they ought to be doing at 18 or 19 - "honest" but non-unionized wage labor, a monogamous marriage with kids, borrowing money to buy property with, constantly using a credit card to "improve their score" - will leave them in lifelong poverty.

Will it? Please show your work.
- most non-unionized positions make well above poverty level for a family of four.
- kids cost money, but having children while married is usually more sensible financially than being single parents
- if you buy property and live in it for >5 years, you are usually better of than renting a comparable property, even with mortgage interest
- you do not need to carry a balance for a CC to build your credit and improve your score. Charging things you would buy anyway and paying it off each month is the recommendation, not carrying significant balances month after month.

And education, though still valuable if you are already rich, is a leaky raft out of the ghetto.

It really depends. I think too many people are going to college, resulting in dumbing down of curricula at many colleges.
We should realize college is not for everyone and that vocational education is a better fit for many people.
It also depends what you study, and how it relates to what you want to do professionally.

Everyone has to eat. Everyone needs a roof over their head.

Sure. But not everyone needs a fancy BMW or Corvette. Not everyone needs a luxury apartment or fancy vacations several times a year. Too many Gen Z think they they are entitled to these things without putting in too much effort.

 

[Derec]

Why not? If someone is convinced that a genocide has occurred, or that there is runaway inflation, don't you think wagging your finger at them shamefully will change their mind? I mean, it's always worked so well in the past.

What do you even mean by this word salad?

 

[Derec]

Your wrote"I was looking for a cumulative inflation graph and found this one. People are sensitive to price increases even if they get raises. That explains why people feel bad about the economy despite good metrics." If that is true, then it doesn't matter what the previous inflation rates were - people should have the same bad feeling if he price level rose by 1% over the past year or 16% over the past 3 years.

Clearly that is not really true (as you seem to tacitly admit with your response about 16%).

You are wrong. Cumulative effects of several years of high inflation are clearly very different than steady, slow inflation of 2% or so, as we have been having before.
If you can't understand that, I am sorry. But it clearly is behind much of the malaise many people are feeling. Ignoring it, or insulting people who dare point it out, will not make it go away.

 

[Politesse]

Aren't you a college professor? Those types of careers will be with us still.

I would hope so, for obvious reasons. That said, public education is a major target for the Trump administration and its extranational allies, though, and the non-partisan threat of AI is eroding away the system from the other side. Even if a profession called "college professor" technically exists in forty years, the persons who occupy that position may not have much compensation, job security, or hopes of a happy retirement.

 

[Derec]

To condemn Netanyahu's atrocities is to be lumped with Islamist terrorists -- do I have that right? IDS (Ilkish Derangement Syndrome) is strong among some of us here.

Did you even read the article? Rashida Tlaib did not just condemn Netanyahu (while failing to condemn Hamas) but she participated in a conference that was organized by PFLP (US designated terrorist organization) where 10/7 massacre that started this was was defended.

More about that conference Rashida Tlaib was speaking at.
Inside the Terrorist-Connected Michigan Conference Where Rashida Tlaib Spoke

n anti-Israel conference that featured US Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) as a surprise speaker over the weekend has extensive links to the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), a widely designated terrorist organization.
The gathering, titled “The People’s Conference for Palestine,” shared video endorsements from PFLP founding member Salah Salah and PFLP member Wisam Rafeedie. The terrorists leader urged Arab Americans to attend the conference and “expose” Israel as a “racist” entity.
[...]
Rafeedie also endorsed the conference as an opportunity to “expose the Zionist project and its methods of genocide against our people.”
Speaking directly to the conference via video stream, Rafeedie stated that Hamas, the terrorist group that launched the war in Gaza on Oct. 7 by slaughtering 1,200 people in southern Israel, is a resistance force acting on behalf of the interests of the Palestinian people.
“This is not a struggle between Hamas and Israel. Hamas is part of the resistance of the Palestinian people. The core issue is between the Palestinian people and the project of settler colonialism and ethnic cleansing,” Rafeedie said.
Rafeedie also lambasted “Zionists” and called for the replacement of Israel with a “democratic” Palestine.
“These Zionists lie like they breathe,” Rafeedie said. “I want to assure everyone that there is no longer a place for a two-state solution for any Palestinian. The only solution is one democratic Palestinian land which will end the Zionist project in Palestine.”
Several speakers applauded Hamas’ terrorist actions against Israel. They also seemingly praised Hamas’ construction of terror tunnels beneath Gazan infrastructure, an act that, according to warfare experts, intentionally endangers Palestinian civilians during military conflict with Israel.
“We also want to take a moment to honor our brave and noble resistance that defends our people from beneath the ground,” Palestinian Youth Movement member Mohammed Nabulsi said during a speech.
“In all its forms, resistance is our right and our way,” added Mustafa Barghouti, a former Palestinian information minister who defended Hamas’ Oct. 7 massacre.
Palestinian writer Abdaljawad Omar voiced support for the Palestine Liberation Organization and praised multiple deadly terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians.

I stand by what I wrote above. Rashida Tlaib should be expelled from the Democratic Party for her support of Palestinian terrorism. This is no better than if a member of the House were to speak at a KKK conference.

 

[Derec]

I would hope so, for obvious reasons. That said, public education is a major target for the Trump administration and its extranational allies, though, and the non-partisan threat of AI is eroding away the system from the other side. Even if a profession called "college professor" technically exists in forty years, the persons who occupy that position may not have much compensation, job security, or hopes of a happy retirement.

I hope that in 40 years, universities are focused on education, rather than indoctrination. Too many college professors blur the line between the two, and some completely obliterate it.
AI will no doubt change how higher education works, as it will change all sectors of the economy. It will probably be a similarly disruptive change as the Neolithic and Industrial revolutions have been.