Swammerdami
Squadron Leader
This election will be won by a RAZOR-THIN margin.
We now see 50-49 (Trump the slight favorite) at Polymarket, and 49½-48½ (Harris the slight favorite) at Betfair.
This is essentially the same as the Nate Silver based prediction shown at https://www.270towin.com/maps/silver-bulletin-2024-presidential-election-forecast#google_vignette
In that map, with Nate(?) showing only three states as Toss-up, whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the White House. 50-50. (The QOPAnon-Putin-Musk Party WILL cheat -- to what extent is that reflected in predictions?)
The 270 win eked out with Pennsylvania assumes Harris also gets Omaha. What are the deadlines for Nebraska to change its system? And for Maine to reciprocate?
Georgia Plus Nevada is a way to get past 270 without Pennsylvania. But both of these winning scenarios assume Harris gets Michigan and Wisconsin. Will Tim Walz, neighbor to these two states, bring them in?
We now see 50-49 (Trump the slight favorite) at Polymarket, and 49½-48½ (Harris the slight favorite) at Betfair.
This is essentially the same as the Nate Silver based prediction shown at https://www.270towin.com/maps/silver-bulletin-2024-presidential-election-forecast#google_vignette
In that map, with Nate(?) showing only three states as Toss-up, whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the White House. 50-50. (The QOPAnon-Putin-Musk Party WILL cheat -- to what extent is that reflected in predictions?)
The 270 win eked out with Pennsylvania assumes Harris also gets Omaha. What are the deadlines for Nebraska to change its system? And for Maine to reciprocate?
[Nebraska Governor Jim] Pillen spokeswoman Laura Strimple said the governor has not shut the door on perhaps calling a special session later this year to consider awarding all five of Nebraska’s electoral votes to the winner of the presidential popular vote statewide.... the tax session could last until Labor Day. If so, that would push a winner-take-all special session into September.
Georgia Plus Nevada is a way to get past 270 without Pennsylvania. But both of these winning scenarios assume Harris gets Michigan and Wisconsin. Will Tim Walz, neighbor to these two states, bring them in?
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