• Welcome to the new Internet Infidels Discussion Board, formerly Talk Freethought.

The Race For 2024

This election will be won by a RAZOR-THIN margin.

We now see 50-49 (Trump the slight favorite) at Polymarket, and 49½-48½ (Harris the slight favorite) at Betfair.

This is essentially the same as the Nate Silver based prediction shown at https://www.270towin.com/maps/silver-bulletin-2024-presidential-election-forecast#google_vignette
In that map, with Nate(?) showing only three states as Toss-up, whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the White House. 50-50. (The QOPAnon-Putin-Musk Party WILL cheat -- to what extent is that reflected in predictions?)
The 270 win eked out with Pennsylvania assumes Harris also gets Omaha. What are the deadlines for Nebraska to change its system? And for Maine to reciprocate?

[Nebraska Governor Jim] Pillen spokeswoman Laura Strimple said the governor has not shut the door on perhaps calling a special session later this year to consider awarding all five of Nebraska’s electoral votes to the winner of the presidential popular vote statewide.... the tax session could last until Labor Day. If so, that would push a winner-take-all special session into September.
Click to expand...

Georgia Plus Nevada is a way to get past 270 without Pennsylvania. But both of these winning scenarios assume Harris gets Michigan and Wisconsin. Will Tim Walz, neighbor to these two states, bring them in?
 
Last edited:
Still too early to tell. Harris is polling blue in District 2 in Maine. Trump won that twice. If Harris really is up in that District, I can't see PA falling. And NC is tied-ish... again, I can't see a universe with Harris winning NC but not PA. And if NC is very tight, I can't see PA being anything but a win.

I think post the debate we'll have a better idea where things stand and where Harris stands bounce/upward trend/upward plateau poll increase wise. Looking at the polls, NC, AZ, NV haven't had a poll in a "bit". Florida will be interesting as well. I'm really interested in any polls on the reproductive rights referendums to get a feel for the potential pull. Generally been around 58% for.
 
pood said:
The first post-debate poll according to 538 is Harris up by 4 nationally. Encouraging, but still demoralizing that so many people plan to vote for Felonious Gunk.
Click to expand...
Yes, it is. I exercise with a Trump supporter. She seems to be a very nice woman with a good sense of humor. We had a brief discussion about the candidates when Biden was still in the race. I've been so tempted to ask her if she's become enlightened yet and has come to understand what a horrible man, and threat to democracy Trump is, but she gets all of her so called news from Newsmax, so I'd likely be wasting my time.

Trump signs are starting to pop up in my neighborhood, at least among many of the white neighbors. It's hard to understand how they can support a man like Trump. These are not wealthy people for the most part. They are middle class folks, but the Trump supporters are mostly working class or retired. All of my friends, regardless of race are supporting Harris, but most of the white folks in my very mixed race city support Trump. Everyone one of my atheist friends support Harris, regardless of race. It's primarily the white Christians here who support Trump. Jesus would be so proud. /s
 
I had an interesting incident just today. I'm eating at a restaurant and an American (white guy almost my age) shows up almost causing a scene. He was bringing his own can of Coke into the restaurant -- presumably already against the rules -- and was upset they wanted to charge for a glass with ice. Several times he asked sarcastically how much a straw would cost. (Thais are even worse at understanding sarcasm than many Infidels here, especially if their English isn't good.) He ends up sitting near me, and complains that his order of salad and fries came with fries -- he wanted mashed potatoes like I had. I asked him if he'd seen Jack Nicholson's Five Easy Pieces ("Sorry, sir, NO substitutions!") but he just wanted to tell me he could have gone in the kitchen and cooked his own mashed potatoes. He'd been in Thailand for five years -- due to Covid quarantine - -and thought that saved his life since his neighbors in USA had had a very high death rate from the virus. (The ugly "Thais are stupid, cain't even understand English" Americans tend to be old-timers -- who've never learned a single word of Thai language -- rather than newcomers with fresh happy eyes.

To make a long story slightly less long I asked "Where you from?" He answered "Michigan. How about you?" "California."

He retorted "I hear that's a bad place to be." I answered "Depends on who you're listening to I suppose." That was the end of our brief conversation.
 
Stand by for even more rambling Trump rallies!

The Donald Trump Show Will Hit the Road

It would appear that we have an answer as to why Donald Trump vanished from the campaign trail. According to insiders, who spoke off the record of course, the former president was deeply depressed by Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race, and from the resulting re-set of a campaign that Trump thought he had already won. "It feels like he's lost his mojo," said one person in Trump's orbit. Of course, this is not incompatible with the thesis that he was badly affected by the assassination attempt.
Click to expand...
 
I live in Pennsylvania, which includes Pennsyltucky, "God's Country/God's County" counties. They're all Trumpsters. Why? They're racists.

Pennsylvania has a genocide problem. OOPS, I mean to say, Pennsylvania Governor Josh "Yellow Lines" Shapiro and PA Senator John Fetterman, ugh, are pro-genocide to a fault: Fetterman literally used an Israeli flag as a cape in order to harass and belittle people who were among the first to publicly protest the genocide in Occupied Palestine.

PA Progressives are torn, some of them. They really don't like genocide, and, are disappointed that Kamala Harris announced a Full Steam Ahead for Genocide of Palestinians at the DNC, and has doubled down on the Democratic Party's dedication to "the rights of Israel" - which they refuse to define outside of more bombs and more weapons and more ammo and more death and more death and more death.

Some anti-genocide and anti-Imperialism types of folks that I've seen on the socials (not much - the algos stifle it) are conflicted about the election because they absosmurfinlutely do not want to cast a vote for a pro-genocide politician at all. I saw one guy say he'd vote for Green Party's Jill Stein because of this, which is tragically ironic, given that Jill Stein is a vocal anti-vaxxer whose ideology creates a genocide of its own.

I just asked a guy this morning, who said that he was angry at the DNC's tokenism and the expectation that Black men and Black people are somehow obligated to vote for Harris, how is Trump a better choice for you, your kids, your communities, OUR communities...?? I wasn't rude, I just asked him why he felt that way. I said that since a Republican win would usher in Project 2025, thus dismantling the federal government, how does that help workers? How does that help those making under $500K/yr or $50Kyr, or are disabled or elder or otherwise in poverty, like me? I ended by saying, regarding Republicans and workers, "They're not like us, they're not like us."

That's a dogwhistle of sorts, I suppose. I quoted/referenced a popular rap song.

For me as a white woman to speak that way to a Black man who I don't know is what is called "out of pocket," or, as some of you might say, "out of one's lane." I meant no harm. I honestly hoped to caution him against propelling a Trump/Republican victory, that's what I meant when I said they're not like us. THEY AREN'T.

Like, yeah, I'm not happy about the tokenism. I'm not happy that Oprah was a speaker, but, uh, it's not only Democrats, it's also Chicago, so... Oprah literally has to be there; that's the way it goes, ever since Ronald Reagan so enamored the voting populace with Hollywood. I'm not a huge fan of Barack Obama, but I laughed at his "size" joke. I felt horrible for Stevie Wonder at the DNC, because he knew that now is not the time for his song "Big Brother," even though it is.

The convention was a good show. My heart swelled with pride and happiness as Kamala Harris spoke. omg!!! SHE IS going to be the first woman President of the USA! A Black woman! An Indian/South Asian woman! A smart, well-spoken woman! A former prosecutor, going against a convicted felon! And she definitely wants more genocide, too!

My heart sank.

The main reason I am voting for her is because the Republicans would commit much more genocide and death here and abroad than the Democrats will. I need my genocide with a proud and happy smile, not a rude racist rant... right?

Pennsylvania has a genocide problem. The Democrats have a genocide problem.

If the pathway to victory necessarily requires a win in Pennsylvania, then the DNC is going to have to hard sell to the people who dislike and do not require genocide in order to be free.

Israel is a theocracy, anyway. I mean, who exactly gave whom the right to kill people to expand their empire? God? Jehovah? Yahweh? Elohim? Oh?? If that is true then it is a de facto theocracy.

oh, pshaw, we had this discussion before. My ideas don't usually sell. Hm. We'll see.
 
Last edited:
I honestly don’t see how anyone can find “support for genocide” in Harris’s speech. She offered some boilerplate about standing up for Israel, which is practically an obligation in U.S. politics, but the bulk of that passage was the need for a cease-fire to end the suffering of the Gaza people. It would be just crazy to not vote for Harris and see Trump get in, whose idiot son has talked about clearing out all the Gazan people so that luxury condos can be built for wealthy tourists.
 
Rump said:
"She will never be respected by the Tyrants of the World!"
Why would we even want that? Rump wasn't respected by anybody outside the US
Kim Jong Un and Putin pretend to respect him because he is a 'useful idiot'.
 
bilby said:
Politesse said:
We are not chimps,
Click to expand...
Yeah, we really are...
Politesse said:
and chimps don't form military industrial complexes.
Click to expand...
and yeah, we observably do.

Terry Pratchett said:
The anthropologists got it wrong when they named our species Homo sapiens ('wise man'). In any case it's an arrogant and bigheaded thing to say, wisdom being one of our least evident features. In reality, we are Pan narrans, the storytelling chimpanzee.
Click to expand...

The seperation of humans into their own genus is a great example of the stories we tell. Our favourite story is that we (for any scale of "we", from just "me", all the way up to the entire Kingdom Animalia), are special, different, and better.

Despite an entire universe of solid evidence to the contrary.
Click to expand...
Better? How did you get that from my post?

And Terry Pratchett is not correct.
 
Beware of forwardblue. It's a scam and obnoxious.
Texts I keep getting from them:
------------------------
6/27/2024
Barack Obama: "Turning out is NOT AN OPTION!" Please rush $15 to HUMILATE Trump and have it 400% MATCHED before midnight! forwardblue.***
7/2/2024
Robert De Niro and George Clooney are rallying for President Biden! 400% MATCH for our Biden Turnout Fund. Please rush $15. -forwardblue.***
7/12/2024
Barack Obama: "We don't give up. We get up!" Please rush $15 to HUMILATE Trump and have it 400% MATCHED before midnight! - forwardblue.***
7/15/2024
Robert De Niro and Bruce Springsteen are rallying for President Biden! 400% MATCH for our Biden Turnout Fund. Please rush $15. - forwardblue.***
7/20/2024
If Kamala Harris faces off against Donald Trump for President, who would you vote for? Respond via this secure link: forwardblue.***/*****
7/21/2024
BREAKING: Joe Biden exited the race! All donations are 500% Matched to our Kamala Harris Turnout Fund. Chip in $15 now.
7/22/2024
After Joe Biden endorsed Kamala Harris, we want to know: Do you support Kamala for President? Respond via this secure link: forwardblue.***/*****
7/24/2024
Presidential Straw Poll: Please confirm you're voting for Kamala Harris? Respond here >> forwardblue.***/*****
7/25/2024
Presidential Straw Poll: Can you please confirm you're voting for Kamala Harris and NOT Donald Trump! Respond here >> forwardblue.***/*****
7/26/2024
Barack Obama offically endorced Kamala Harris! All Harris Turnout Fund donations are 500% MACHED today. Chip in $15 now. forwardblue.***/*****
7/27/2024
All Harris Turnout Fund donations are 500% MACHED! We must hit $1M to HUMILATE the Trump-Vance ticket. Rush $15 now. forwardblue.***/*****
7/29/2024
You were selected to take our Kamala Harris Approval Poll, but we're missing your response! Confirm your support now. forwardblue.***/*****
7/30/2024
Kamala Harris is considering Mark Kelly for Vice President! Who do YOU think she should pick for VP? Reply via personal link: forwardblue.***/*****
8/4/2024
Kamala Harris is considering Mark Kelly and Josh Shapiro for Vice President! Who do YOU think should be VP? Reply here: forwardblue.***/*****
8/6/2024
Kamala Harris picked Tim Walz for VP! Help us boost turnout for Kamala now, donations are 500% MACHED! Rush $15 now. forwardblue.***/*****
8/8/2024
Barack Obama: "Turning out is NOT AN OPTION!" Please rush $15 to HUMILATE Trump and have it 500% MATCHED before midnight! - forwardblue.***
8/18/2024
Presidential Straw Poll: Can you please confirm you're voting for Kamala D. Harris? Respond here >> forwardblue.***/*****
8/20/2024
Barack Obama: "It's time to get up RIGHT NOW!" Rush $15 to DESTROY Trump and save Democrats! We'll 500% MATCH before 9pm! >> - forwardblue.***
8/21/2024
Barack Obama: "Whatever you've done so far is not enough!" Rush $15 to HUMILIATE Trump and BOOST Democrats! (500% MATCHED!): - forwardblue.***
8/22/2024
Before Kamala Harris hits the DNC stage tonight, confirm you're voting for Kamala D. Harris for president? Reply now: forwardblue.***/*****
8/27/2024 (today)
We've asked you SIX TIMES if you support Kamala Harris... but you never completed the poll! :( Reply via personal link: forwardblue.***/*****
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(forwardblue.*** is not listed on Wikipedia.
scam-detector.com has two listings. Created on 2 different dates by 2 different owners. Scores of 61/100 (bad) and 12/100 (the worst on scam-detector.com. )
----------------------------------
I don't see how these would get any money out of people. I suspect they are from Russian hackers trying to turn backers away from Harris.
The 'poll' is bogus, of course, not published anywhere. Doesn't say where the 500% match comes from. Doubtful the quotes are real.
 
Hundreds of former Republican presidential staffers sign open letter endorsing Harris over Trump.
Signatories include Reed Galen, a George W. Bush and McCain campaign alum who co-founded the anti-Trump group The Lincoln Project, and Olivia Troye, a former George W. Bush staffer and homeland security adviser to Trump’s vice president, Mike Pence. The range of jobs represented runs the gamut from chief of staff to intern.
Click to expand...


Now, none of these are household names, but as a never-Trump former Republican (Tim Miller of the anti-Trump The Bulwark) mentioned, imagine if over 200 former Clinton, Obama, and Biden staffers came out and endorsed Trump. That would be big news. This? Not so much.
 
Janice Rael said:
I live in Pennsylvania, which includes Pennsyltucky, "God's Country/God's County" counties. They're all Trumpsters. Why? They're racists.

Pennsylvania has a genocide problem. OOPS, I mean to say, Pennsylvania Governor Josh "Yellow Lines" Shapiro and PA Senator John Fetterman, ugh, are pro-genocide to a fault: Fetterman literally used an Israeli flag as a cape in order to harass and belittle people who were among the first to publicly protest the genocide in Occupied Palestine.

PA Progressives are torn, some of them. They really don't like genocide, and, are disappointed that Kamala Harris announced a Full Steam Ahead for Genocide of Palestinians at the DNC, and has doubled down on the Democratic Party's dedication to "the rights of Israel" - which they refuse to define outside of more bombs and more weapons and more ammo and more death and more death and more death.

Some anti-genocide and anti-Imperialism types of folks that I've seen on the socials (not much - the algos stifle it) are conflicted about the election because they absosmurfinlutely do not want to cast a vote for a pro-genocide politician at all. I saw one guy say he'd vote for Green Party's Jill Stein because of this, which is tragically ironic, given that Jill Stein is a vocal anti-vaxxer whose ideology creates a genocide of its own.

I just asked a guy this morning, who said that he was angry at the DNC's tokenism and the expectation that Black men and Black people are somehow obligated to vote for Harris, how is Trump a better choice for you, your kids, your communities, OUR communities...?? I wasn't rude, I just asked him why he felt that way. I said that since a Republican win would usher in Project 2025, thus dismantling the federal government, how does that help workers? How does that help those making under $500K/yr or $50Kyr, or are disabled or elder or otherwise in poverty, like me? I ended by saying, regarding Republicans and workers, "They're not like us, they're not like us."

That's a dogwhistle of sorts, I suppose. I quoted/referenced a popular rap song.

For me as a white woman to speak that way to a Black man who I don't know is what is called "out of pocket," or, as some of you might say, "out of one's lane." I meant no harm. I honestly hoped to caution him against propelling a Trump/Republican victory, that's what I meant when I said they're not like us. THEY AREN'T.

Like, yeah, I'm not happy about the tokenism. I'm not happy that Oprah was a speaker, but, uh, it's not only Democrats, it's also Chicago, so... Oprah literally has to be there; that's the way it goes, ever since Ronald Reagan so enamored the voting populace with Hollywood. I'm not a huge fan of Barack Obama, but I laughed at his "size" joke. I felt horrible for Stevie Wonder at the DNC, because he knew that now is not the time for his song "Big Brother," even though it is.

The convention was a good show. My heart swelled with pride and happiness as Kamala Harris spoke. omg!!! SHE IS going to be the first woman President of the USA! A Black woman! An Indian/South Asian woman! A smart, well-spoken woman! A former prosecutor, going against a convicted felon! And she definitely wants more genocide, too!

My heart sank.

The main reason I am voting for her is because the Republicans would commit much more genocide and death here and abroad than the Democrats will. I need my genocide with a proud and happy smile, not a rude racist rant... right?

Pennsylvania has a genocide problem. The Democrats have a genocide problem.

If the pathway to victory necessarily requires a win in Pennsylvania, then the DNC is going to have to hard sell to the people who dislike and do not require genocide in order to be free.

Israel is a theocracy, anyway. I mean, who exactly gave whom the right to kill people to expand their empire? God? Jehovah? Yahweh? Elohim? Oh?? If that is true then it is a de facto theocracy.

oh, pshaw, we had this discussion before. My ideas don't usually sell. Hm. We'll see.
Click to expand...
Well, I'm sure that Trump will push just as hard for a cease fire as Biden is. He's always been a huge supporter of Palestinian rights!
 
After nearly nine years since the carbuncle appeared on the body politic.
It just befuddles me that anyone would defend tRump in anyway at all.
I am not talking about the MAGOTS, I talking about some members here.
WTF is wrong in your life at you feel the need to do this?
Why are you so angry?
I am at a complete loss.
 
pood said:
I honestly don’t see how anyone can find “support for genocide” in Harris’s speech. She offered some boilerplate about standing up for Israel, which is practically an obligation in U.S. politics, but the bulk of that passage was the need for a cease-fire to end the suffering of the Gaza people. It would be just crazy to not vote for Harris and see Trump get in, whose idiot son has talked about clearing out all the Gazan people so that luxury condos can be built for wealthy tourists.
Click to expand...

Thank you!

I am BEYOND exasperation with progressive people so blindered that they look at a foreign war w/r American politics and go with "same-same."

The classic example is the HUGE chorus of "liberals" who branded Hillary Clinton a "war-monger" because she voted for the 2002 "Iraq War" Authorization Act.

For starters, it was the GOP leadership that concocted deliberate laws to justify that stupid adventure. Lies that gulled Senators because they didn't yet understand how perfidious Republican White Houses could be. (Study the actual motives of top Republicans and be horrified. Kissinger, for example, stated that he supported the Iraq War because destroying Afghanistan "Wouldn't be enough humiliation for radical Islam." Rumsfeld went along because, at his age, it would be his last chance to test new theories of warfare.)

Furthermore, Hillary made a long eloquent speech on the floor of the Senate explaining that her vote was to PREVENT war. She felt that the threat of war would be enough to cow Iraq, perhaps forcing Saddam into exile. It turned out she was right, but Cheney & Rumsfeld rushed their war so that Iraqis wouldn't have time to pressure or depose Saddam. But, actually LISTEN to Hillary's speech and motives? Ha! The ignorati couldn't think beyond the single word "Yea."

And now it's the same old claptrap. It was TRUMP who moved the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem. It is REPUBLICANS who have consistently refused to apply any pressure to Netanyahu. But Democratic joy and unity are being disprupted by inanities and gibberish that boils down to "same-same."

I give up. I GIVE UP. At this point, just go ahead and vote for Trump and get it over with.
 
robnisch said:
After nearly nine years since the carbuncle appeared on the body politic.
It just befuddles me that anyone would defend tRump in anyway at all.
I am not talking about the MAGOTS, I talking about some members here.
WTF is wrong in your life at you feel the need to do this?
Why are you so angry?
I am at a complete loss.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't get angry. Get motivated. Volunteer. Donate. Engage those on the fence. FUCKING VOTE! I also am amazed that so many would vote for someone who tried to overthrow our election. Mystified. I understand why the right voted for Bush, and Reagan. I do. I didn't vote for them. But I get it. I'd vote democratic just to try to get the supreme court back. Let alone abortion rights, freedom to use birth control, preventing WW3, reasonable tax strategy, reasonable business regulations, understanding of science, beneficial trade, and etc.

I think that the Trump supporters are mixed with those who feel that he's ordained by God to lead (nothing to say to these folks) and those who fear their culture is slipping. But we also lose votes on the left due to single issue voters who get offended and either don't vote or vote third party. We are the party of the big tent. We have many common sense policies that are nuanced and easily cause hurt offense. And we don't come together as well. It's easy on the right. All that you have to do is say that you'll lower taxes, reduce regulations, love god, and hate those dirty foreigners - and you're in! This is why we are the minority party despite having far more voters who are registered democrat. We need to buck up and win this election.
 
Swammerdami said:
pood said:
I honestly don’t see how anyone can find “support for genocide” in Harris’s speech. She offered some boilerplate about standing up for Israel, which is practically an obligation in U.S. politics, but the bulk of that passage was the need for a cease-fire to end the suffering of the Gaza people. It would be just crazy to not vote for Harris and see Trump get in, whose idiot son has talked about clearing out all the Gazan people so that luxury condos can be built for wealthy tourists.
Click to expand...

Thank you!

I am BEYOND exasperation with progressive people so blindered that they look at a foreign war w/r American politics and go with "same-same."

The classic example is the HUGE chorus of "liberals" who branded Hillary Clinton a "war-monger" because she voted for the 2002 "Iraq War" Authorization Act.

For starters, it was the GOP leadership that concocted deliberate laws to justify that stupid adventure. Lies that gulled Senators because they didn't yet understand how perfidious Republican White Houses could be. (Study the actual motives of top Republicans and be horrified. Kissinger, for example, stated that he supported the Iraq War because destroying Afghanistan "Wouldn't be enough humiliation for radical Islam." Rumsfeld went along because, at his age, it would be his last chance to test new theories of warfare.)

Furthermore, Hillary made a long eloquent speech on the floor of the Senate explaining that her vote was to PREVENT war. She felt that the threat of war would be enough to cow Iraq, perhaps forcing Saddam into exile. It turned out she was right, but Cheney & Rumsfeld rushed their war so that Iraqis wouldn't have time to pressure or depose Saddam. But, actually LISTEN to Hillary's speech and motives? Ha! The ignorati couldn't think beyond the single word "Yea."

And now it's the same old claptrap. It was TRUMP who moved the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem. It is REPUBLICANS who have consistently refused to apply any pressure to Netanyahu. But Democratic joy and unity are being disprupted by inanities and gibberish that boils down to "same-same."

I give up. I GIVE UP. At this point, just go ahead and vote for Trump and get it over with.
Click to expand...
I almost "liked" your post! It was a good post. However, I don't agree with the last sentence. I'm not giving up. I have three young kids and I want them to have a reasonable government. I'm not giving up.
 
Harry Bosch said:
Swammerdami said:
I give up. I GIVE UP. At this point, just go ahead and vote for Trump and get it over with.
Click to expand...
I almost "liked" your post! It was a good post. However, I don't agree with the last sentence. I'm not giving up. I have three young kids and I want them to have a reasonable government. I'm not giving up.
Click to expand...
It was hyperbole -- a way to stress how wrong the "same-samers" are. If I were a theist, I'd be praying with all my strength for success in what is probably the most important election of our lifetimes.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom