The Race For 2024

[Patooka]

I just heard this morning that the Saudis will be increasing oil production, giving up their goal of $100 per bbl oil price. No reason why given.

It should be interesting to see what happens next.

Probably fuck all because the bottleneck isn't in oil drilling but oil refining.

 

[Swammerdami]

Am I obsessed with useless guessing about whether this contest is 51-49 or 49-51? You betcha! But it may be the most important "horse race" of my lifetime, so who can blame me for my obsession?

I show the Seven Swing States™ (and one longer-shot each for Red or Blue sometimes mentioned), along with latest poll averages as shown at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/ . The final number shown on each line is #EVs ÷5.

Minnesota +6 . . . . // 2

Michigan +3 . . . . .// 3
Wisconsin +2 . . . . // 2
Pennsylvania +1. . . // 4
Nevada +1. . . . . . // 1
North Carolina 0 . . // 3
Georgia -1 . . . . . // 3
Arizona -1 . . . . . // 2

Florida -4 . . . . . // 6

Harris needs 9 of the 18 #EVs ÷5 from the Seven Swingers. Assuming she gets MN, MI and WI (and that Trump gets FL), she also needs either (1) PA and Omaha, or (2) any two of {NV, NC, GA, AZ} except NV+AZ. Harris has a slight edge in Polymarket and Betfair "predictions", though given "error-bars" those markets' current standings can be treated as "dead heats."

 

[ZiprHead]

I think NC choosing Hershel Walker on steroids for the Republican candidate puts it in play for KH. I think the only useful poll will be the big one conducted in November.

 

[marc]

Interesting racist tactic. Sending fake letters that Biden made a law to force people to house Hatiian migrants, and You have been selected

 

[unapologetic]

I'm not gonna listen to some random conspiracy meme. References please.

ITS A JOKE

How can I tell with so much BS in this race? What's the joke, The leaked questions, the whistleblower, or that he died suspiciously?

in addition to the fact that he is unfit and dangerous - mockery is justified.

I have ZERO respect for rump. I am not going to hide my disrespect.
I disrespect Rump, not the office he temporarily held. He did an unworthy job of it. He gained NO respect from his poor showing.
There is no other President I mock or dis. (except maybe Nixon). Rump makes Nixon 'misunderstood' in my eyes.

CNN is reporting that Melania requires to be paid in order to appear.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/23/politics/melania-trump-speaking-engagements/index.html
What does THIS tell you about women in Trumps circle!

That depends on who paid her.
If the Rump campaign paid her, Then maybe Rump is using her to pocket some campaign funds.

lol, I am not insisting on anything. I am pointing out the double standard.

What double standard? Rump/FauxNews/republicans started the mud-slinging, and do most of it. So now they can reap what they sow.

And finally, who the heck is left in the Log Cabin Republicans? Or are they so stalwart in their beliefs, it allows them the denial required to think their existence matters in the GOP?

What? Gay republicans? Is that a joke?

The ONLY OFFICIAL coin designed by me-and proudly minted here in the U.S.A. The President Donald J. Trump First Edition Silver Medallion will be available starting Wednesday,

Silver is out of character. If Rump designed it, I expect it to be gold plated tin.

"Tangerine Hitler" and the like is not particularly accurate.

You want accuracy? "Orange Hitler" is spot on.

Brandon isn't offensive,

I don't think so either, but I have no idea what it means.

It can't be that mockery of Republicans is accepted, but mockery of Democrats is attacked.

Rump/FauxNews/republicans started the mud-slinging, and do most of it. So now they can reap what they sow.

But the problem with geothermal is it involves using a heat pump. Why go through all the extra effort of digging/drilling geothermal wells/lines and use a heat pump... when you could just heat and cool the home with a heat pump?

Sorry, but it sounds like you over estimate what a 'heat pump' does. Or the efficiency. It helps to have a source of heat, that doesn't require electricity. And you should consider the economics of a centralized utility Vs. single home sized instillations. A 'heat pump' alone uses electricity. Can not generate it. Geothermal heat can be used to generate electricity which runs the pump to heat/cool.

How is it possible that Trump has even a faint chance?

Hmm... We said that in 2016.

She needs to simply keep attacking Trump.

I disagree. Some of us are sick and tired of Rump/FauxNews/republican mud-slinging. A positive voice will appeal to the 'undecided'.

I have been a professional for 40 years working for several different companies, large and small. I have NEVER once seen a woman "sleep her way to the top".

But we see it all the time in movies and TV. So must be true.

 

[ZiprHead]

CNN is reporting that Melania requires to be paid in order to appear.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/23/politics/melania-trump-speaking-engagements/index.html

What does THIS tell you about women in Trumps circle!

I believe no first lady has ever given a speech to be paid.

 

[ZiprHead]

Harris just received a very important endorsement

It’s hilarious that we are supposed to rally around the most unpopular VP the USA has ever known.

A bunch of people tried to hang the last guy.

Yeah I don't think so. Meanwhile one Republican loon managed to shoot up a rally being held by former president Trump, near killing Trump, killing a spectator and injuring several others. And of course the other loon was caught hiding in the bushes before he could take a shot at former president Trump.

FTFY

 

[ZiprHead]

Vance mocked for saying eggs cost $4 — while standing in front of a dozen for $2.99

Vance was at a supermarket in Reading, Pennsylvania with his sons to illustrate how grocery prices have been impacted by ‘Kamala Harris’s policies’

www.independent.co.uk

JD Vance was roundly mocked online over a trip to the supermarket where he bemoaned the steep price of eggs — and botched the photo opp.

The Republican vice presidential nominee stopped by a supermarket in Reading, Pennsylvania, with his sons over the weekend to illustrate how grocery prices have been impacted by “Kamala Harris’s policies” when he claimed a dozen eggs cost $4.

The problem? When footage of the visit emerged, Vance was quickly called out by viewers who spotted the price tag of a dozen eggs behind him was actually $2.99.

I actually got an eighteen pack of grade A large eggs from Kroger for $1.99.

 

[thebeave]

Vance mocked for saying eggs cost $4 — while standing in front of a dozen for $2.99

Vance was at a supermarket in Reading, Pennsylvania with his sons to illustrate how grocery prices have been impacted by ‘Kamala Harris’s policies’

www.independent.co.uk

JD Vance was roundly mocked online over a trip to the supermarket where he bemoaned the steep price of eggs — and botched the photo opp.

The Republican vice presidential nominee stopped by a supermarket in Reading, Pennsylvania, with his sons over the weekend to illustrate how grocery prices have been impacted by “Kamala Harris’s policies” when he claimed a dozen eggs cost $4.

The problem? When footage of the visit emerged, Vance was quickly called out by viewers who spotted the price tag of a dozen eggs behind him was actually $2.99.

I actually got an eighteen pack of grade A large eggs from Kroger for $1.99.

Cheapest price for a dozen eggs are $5.49/dozen at my local Lucky store. If organic is your thing, you can get 18 for $12.99 from the "Happy Egg Company".

 

[TomC]

I actually got an eighteen pack of grade A large eggs from Kroger for $1.99

They are not quite that cheap around here. An 18 pack is more like $2.89.

The price of eggs did skyrocket for a while there. There was some kind of bird virus that killed off a bunch of chickens, resulting in a big jump in egg prices. Lasted a few months, as I recall. The reason I noticed is that I am trying to reduce our meat consumption. Didn't really change anything.

Tom

 

[SLD]

She needs to simply keep attacking Trump.

I disagree. Some of us are sick and tired of Rump/FauxNews/republican mud-slinging. A positive voice will appeal to the 'undecided'.

It’s not about the undecided voters. It’s about motivating the base and demotivating the other base. And negative ads demotivate the other base. The truth is it works. You may not like it, but it works. Bad things have to come out about Trump. More and more bad things and his minions must be reminded of them. More pictures of him and Epstein. Russian collusion. Repeat his stupidest statements over and over again. More of his inability to articulate a coherent thought. Make it clear that he’s a fake Christian. Target his base and make it clear he’s unfit to govern.

But it needn’t come directly from her. I saw one super pac ad that was good, but it’s not enough. We need to inundate the airwaves with them. Make some of them real news that gets people talking. Doug Jones won a senate race in Alabama - the first for a democrat in decades - and he didn’t have to do much of anything. The press did it all for him by uncovering that Roy Moore was a pedophile. But it wasn’t because people suddenly decided to come out and vote for Doug. They just didn’t show up at the polls. Tens of thousands of voters in Alabama suburbs who would otherwise have voted for Roy Moore just refused to vote at all. That’s what negative campaigning does for you.

Inundate the air with negative talk about Trump in Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Michigan. People will get discouraged and won’t show up to vote for him.

Sadly she won’t do it. And that’s why she will lose.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Vance mocked for saying eggs cost $4 — while standing in front of a dozen for $2.99

Vance was at a supermarket in Reading, Pennsylvania with his sons to illustrate how grocery prices have been impacted by ‘Kamala Harris’s policies’

www.independent.co.uk

JD Vance was roundly mocked online over a trip to the supermarket where he bemoaned the steep price of eggs — and botched the photo opp.

The Republican vice presidential nominee stopped by a supermarket in Reading, Pennsylvania, with his sons over the weekend to illustrate how grocery prices have been impacted by “Kamala Harris’s policies” when he claimed a dozen eggs cost $4.

The problem? When footage of the visit emerged, Vance was quickly called out by viewers who spotted the price tag of a dozen eggs behind him was actually $2.99.

I actually got an eighteen pack of grade A large eggs from Kroger for $1.99.

So Biden is responsible for bird flu now.

 

[Rhea]

She needs to simply keep attacking Trump.

But it needn’t come directly from her.

Inundate the air with negative talk about Trump in Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Michigan. People will get discouraged and won’t show up to vote for him.

Sadly she won’t do it. And that’s why she will lose.

She shouldn’t do it.
As you say it doesn’t need to come directly from her and it should not.

Yes it can and should be done. But not by her.

If it is done by others REPUBLICAN voters will get discouraged and not show.
If it is done by her, DEMOCRATIC voers will get discouraged and not show.

Hence - others need to do it. Go Lincoln project. Send them money.

The Lincoln Project

The fight against Trumpism is just beginning. The Lincoln Project launched with two stated objectives. The first was to defeat Donald Trump at the ballot box. The second was to ensure Trumpism failed alongside him. As we have seen, our fight against Trumpism is only beginning. We must combat...

www.youtube.com

They make a new video every day just like the ones you want.
Spread ‘em around!!

 

[Ford]

Interesting racist tactic. Sending fake letters that Biden made a law to force people to house Hatiian migrants, and You have been selected

The sad thing is, a lot of older folks will fall for this. I'm subscribed to NextDoor (a social media app that's localized to your neighborhood) and it is depressing how frightened and gullible some people on there are. Most of the content is just missing pets, or "did anyone hear that? Was that gunshots?" or reports of "suspicious people" seen on doorbell cameras. Yet there's a regular "I just got this email, is it a scam?" posts.

It's the usual stuff that anyone who watches scambait videos like Kitboga, Jim Browning, or Scammer Payback knows well, but the thread responses are filled with "this happened to my aunt/neighbor/friend and they lost X thousand dollars to the scammers." And it's the simplest thing. Do you have a PayPal account? Then of course you weren't "accidentally" charged $399 for a subscription renewal. Yet people fall for this stuff every day.

It's not just NextDoor and the elderly, either. Yesterday I was having a back and forth on FB about the new measures the GOP is deploying to "stop election fraud," and after I said it's odd that 4 years on there's still no evidence of "widespread voter fraud" in the 2020 election, someone replied "just because there's no evidence doesn't mean it's not happening!"

The answer to "how is this even close at this point?" is fairly simple. A lot of people are poorly educated, woefully uniformed, gullible, or just straight up not too bright.

 

[southernhybrid]

Yesterday, Trump said that Harris was mentally unstable. I've never heard anyone project like Trump does. He is the most mentally unstable, compulsive liar that has ever run for president and his VP nominee is as well. It's hard to understand how people don't see that.

We are bombarded with ads here in Georgia. Every Trump ad does nothing but call Harris names, while every Harris ad expresses a plan that she hopes to accomplish. There are also lots of ads from organizations that support the right of women to have control over their own bodies. Since I record most of the things I watch, I'm not subjected to many of these ads, as I fast forward them whenever possible.

 

[Rhea]

Yesterday, Trump said that Harris was mentally unstable.

LOL, and trump got beaten in a debate by a mentally unstable person, then?
Sad!

 

[Elixir]

Yesterday, Trump said that Harris was mentally unstable.

LOL, and trump got beaten in a debate by a mentally unstable person, then?
Sad!

Yes. Yes he did.
Of course, mental stability is a relative thing. Presidential candidates are generally in the lowest quartile…

 

[Ford]

Yesterday, Trump said that Harris was mentally unstable.

LOL, and trump got beaten in a debate by a mentally unstable person, then?
Sad!

Yes. Yes he did.
Of course, mental stability is a relative thing. Presidential candidates are generally in the lowest quartile…

To be fair, you have to have a massive ego to believe you're qualified to be at the top of the most powerful government on the planet, spend trillions of dollars, and have a briefcase that can destroy the world in an afternoon. I remember watching an interview with Dr. Oz (before he became a candidate) and he pointed out (correctly) that if he didn't have an outsized sense of self-confidence, it would make his job as a heart surgeon a lot more difficult.

But there's a difference between having an ego, and having an ego problem. Harris thinks she's qualified to be President because - after working her way up through California state politics, becoming an AG, and then a Senator - she's been "a heartbeat away" for the last 3 1/2 years. When Trump ran in 2016, it was almost pure outsized sense of self-importance. He really seems to think he's the smartest guy in the room, and even a room full of UN ambassadors laughing at him didn't dispel that notion. Yes, he was President before, but somehow managed to insulate himself from any criticism. Any of the "very best people" who told him he was wrong about something were fired. He spent every morning watching a "news" network that fawned over him. His inner circle reinforced his already inflated ego, but even if they didn't, his malignant narcissism means that even if everyone told him he was wrong and he lost everything due to lawsuits and prosecutions, he'd be sitting in a cell right now telling the guards that he's the greatest American who ever lived and that treating them like his personal security detail.

 

[Elixir]

To be fair, you have to have a massive ego to believe you're qualified to be at the top of the most powerful government on the planet, spend trillions of dollars, and have a briefcase that can destroy the world in an afternoon.

That’s what I said meant.

 

[Shadowy Man]

Yesterday, Trump said that Harris was mentally unstable.

LOL, and trump got beaten in a debate by a mentally unstable person, then?
Sad!

No. He said he won.

The same people who will believe him when he says she’s mentally unstable will believe him when he says he won.