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The Race For 2024

Slight lead for Harris in Wisconsin in the exit polls.

Looks like Trump got a lot of toxic Hispanic male votes.

It isn't over, but it isn't hopeful.
 
NC - very tight but Trump
I just saw a count on the ABC (ours, not yours) that had Trump ahead by just 16 votes. That's sixteen. Not 160, or 1,600, either of which would be "tight".

Sixteen votes.
I'm using Exit Polling to get the final tally. NC is tight but leaning Trump.
Exit Polling, like any other kind of polling, is valueless in any close race.

It's helpful for quickly assigning those states that are firmly in one camp or other, but you would be very unwise to use it to predict a close race.
 
NC - very tight but Trump
I just saw a count on the ABC (ours, not yours) that had Trump ahead by just 16 votes. That's sixteen. Not 160, or 1,600, either of which would be "tight".

Sixteen votes.
I'm using Exit Polling to get the final tally. NC is tight but leaning Trump.
Exit Polling, like any other kind of polling, is valueless in any close race.
I called most of the races correctly in 2020. So no, you are not correct. I had Georgia called before going to bed.
It's helpful for quickly assigning those states that are firmly in one camp or other, but you would be very unwise to use it to predict a close race.
This fucking this is over. America is entering a new stage.
 
Trump wins 281 to 287 EVs. 40 years of right-wing propaganda paying off.

With any luck, he kicks my Canadian born mother out and we immigrant to Canada.
 
I called most of the races correctly in 2020.
Well done; Have a lollipop.
So no, you are not correct.
That remains to be seen. The first actual counts of votes from AZ are almost an hour away. Calling it now is premature; Calling a coin toss while the coin is in the air might easily give you the right answer, but that doesn't justify the prediction.
 
Despite his reputation as a "right winger", Joe Rogan is not a rabid partisan.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

*deep breath*

Wait, you're fucking serious? Please excuse me for one moment...


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Thank you. I needed that.
 
Comments - There’s more herding in swing state polls than at a sheep farm in the Scottish Highlands
I like these comments:
chrisp

As we approach the election, the Silver Bulletin comments section seems more and more Trumpy. Any ideas why? I liked it better around here where the comments were jokes and data nerd talk.

Calvin P

Part of it is that Trump's strategy is to convince everyone he's winning. That motivates his voters and demotivates Democrats (people want to be on the winning team). It also helps him claim fraud if he loses.

There are a few users I recognize here who argue vigorously, but as far as I can tell honestly, that Trump will win (Slaw is one of them). I enjoy arguing with those users, probably more than is good for my mental health. Then there's a bunch of users I don't recognize who started showing up recently to brag about how Trump is going to win. I mostly don't engage with them.

Charles Ryder

Right wing people are more argumentative. They simply enjoy it more. It's a personality trait, I believe. This tends to gradually nudge many online opinion fora to the right, until a tipping point is reached, and the non-right presence collapses. We've seen this on different platforms (Disqus, Twitter, Podcasts, etc).
 
Trump wins 281 to 287 EVs. 40 years of right-wing propaganda paying off.
If this holds, blame should be placed where it is due -
The people that voted for the riot guy? The people that sucked down the anti- immigrant 19th century bullshit? This hispanic thing is something else. The Dems could be fucked long term, or until another series of awful GOP leadership that needs to be cleaned up.
 
It's pretty much over. I'm calling it now. Trump has it. Not a red wave but all the demos Trump needed he got.
 

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NC - very tight but Trump
I just saw a count on the ABC (ours, not yours) that had Trump ahead by just 16 votes. That's sixteen. Not 160, or 1,600, either of which would be "tight".

Sixteen votes.
I'm using Exit Polling to get the final tally. NC is tight but leaning Trump.
Exit Polling, like any other kind of polling, is valueless in any close race.
As always how do you know that the one being asked has actually told you what they did? They might be having a lend of you.
It's helpful for quickly assigning those states that are firmly in one camp or other, but you would be very unwise to use it to predict a close race.
Yes
 
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