The Race For 2024

[bilby]

NC - very tight but Trump

I just saw a count on the ABC (ours, not yours) that had Trump ahead by just 16 votes. That's sixteen. Not 160, or 1,600, either of which would be "tight".

Sixteen votes.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Slight lead for Harris in Wisconsin in the exit polls.

Looks like Trump got a lot of toxic Hispanic male votes.

It isn't over, but it isn't hopeful.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

NC - very tight but Trump

I just saw a count on the ABC (ours, not yours) that had Trump ahead by just 16 votes. That's sixteen. Not 160, or 1,600, either of which would be "tight".

Sixteen votes.

I'm using Exit Polling to get the final tally. NC is tight but leaning Trump.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Trump won Arizona. Close, but not close enough.

 

[bilby]

NC - very tight but Trump

I just saw a count on the ABC (ours, not yours) that had Trump ahead by just 16 votes. That's sixteen. Not 160, or 1,600, either of which would be "tight".

Sixteen votes.

I'm using Exit Polling to get the final tally. NC is tight but leaning Trump.

Exit Polling, like any other kind of polling, is valueless in any close race.

It's helpful for quickly assigning those states that are firmly in one camp or other, but you would be very unwise to use it to predict a close race.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Toxic Male America won tonight.

 

[bilby]

Trump won Arizona. Close, but not close enough.

Not yet, he didn't.

It's post-vote projections like this that got his "stolen election" fairytale so much traction.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

NC - very tight but Trump

I just saw a count on the ABC (ours, not yours) that had Trump ahead by just 16 votes. That's sixteen. Not 160, or 1,600, either of which would be "tight".

Sixteen votes.

I'm using Exit Polling to get the final tally. NC is tight but leaning Trump.

Exit Polling, like any other kind of polling, is valueless in any close race.

I called most of the races correctly in 2020. So no, you are not correct. I had Georgia called before going to bed.

It's helpful for quickly assigning those states that are firmly in one camp or other, but you would be very unwise to use it to predict a close race.

This fucking this is over. America is entering a new stage.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Trump won Arizona. Close, but not close enough.

Not yet, he didn't.

It's post-vote projections like this that got his "stolen election" fairytale so much traction.

Sure. But Trump won Arizona.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Trump wins 281 to 287 EVs. 40 years of right-wing propaganda paying off.

With any luck, he kicks my Canadian born mother out and we immigrant to Canada.

 

[Patooka]

Seems Joe Rogan has come out and endorsed Trump. That is very telling.

Guess what genius;



Jesus Christ, you really are nothing more than Daily Fail quotes and "Sure, Jan", aren't you?

 

[bilby]

I called most of the races correctly in 2020.

Well done; Have a lollipop.

So no, you are not correct.

That remains to be seen. The first actual counts of votes from AZ are almost an hour away. Calling it now is premature; Calling a coin toss while the coin is in the air might easily give you the right answer, but that doesn't justify the prediction.

 

[Derec]

Trump wins 281 to 287 EVs. 40 years of right-wing propaganda paying off.

If this holds, blame should be placed where it is due - Biden for not dropping out sooner, and Harris for not running a great campaign.

But it ain't over until it is over.

 

[Patooka]

Despite his reputation as a "right winger", Joe Rogan is not a rabid partisan.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

*deep breath*

Wait, you're fucking serious? Please excuse me for one moment...


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Thank you. I needed that.

 

[lpetrich]

Comments - There’s more herding in swing state polls than at a sheep farm in the Scottish Highlands
I like these comments:

chrisp

As we approach the election, the Silver Bulletin comments section seems more and more Trumpy. Any ideas why? I liked it better around here where the comments were jokes and data nerd talk.

Calvin P

Part of it is that Trump's strategy is to convince everyone he's winning. That motivates his voters and demotivates Democrats (people want to be on the winning team). It also helps him claim fraud if he loses.

There are a few users I recognize here who argue vigorously, but as far as I can tell honestly, that Trump will win (Slaw is one of them). I enjoy arguing with those users, probably more than is good for my mental health. Then there's a bunch of users I don't recognize who started showing up recently to brag about how Trump is going to win. I mostly don't engage with them.

Charles Ryder

Right wing people are more argumentative. They simply enjoy it more. It's a personality trait, I believe. This tends to gradually nudge many online opinion fora to the right, until a tipping point is reached, and the non-right presence collapses. We've seen this on different platforms (Disqus, Twitter, Podcasts, etc).

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Trump wins 281 to 287 EVs. 40 years of right-wing propaganda paying off.

If this holds, blame should be placed where it is due -

The people that voted for the riot guy? The people that sucked down the anti- immigrant 19th century bullshit? This hispanic thing is something else. The Dems could be fucked long term, or until another series of awful GOP leadership that needs to be cleaned up.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Arizona isn't settled. It depends on whether Maricopa posts results before or after other counties.

 

[Axulus]

It's pretty much over. I'm calling it now. Trump has it. Not a red wave but all the demos Trump needed he got.

 

[Tigers!]

NC - very tight but Trump

I just saw a count on the ABC (ours, not yours) that had Trump ahead by just 16 votes. That's sixteen. Not 160, or 1,600, either of which would be "tight".

Sixteen votes.

I'm using Exit Polling to get the final tally. NC is tight but leaning Trump.

Exit Polling, like any other kind of polling, is valueless in any close race.

As always how do you know that the one being asked has actually told you what they did? They might be having a lend of you.

It's helpful for quickly assigning those states that are firmly in one camp or other, but you would be very unwise to use it to predict a close race.

Yes

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So looking at North Carolina, Trump tightened up black men 83% to 59%, but get ready for this... Latino Women from 54% to 27%. Latino Men... about unchanged.