The Race For 2024

[Harry Bosch]

This...

What a great and appropriate image!!

 

[Shadowy Man]

This...

What a great and appropriate image!!

In JD Vance’s world he would get to vote for both her and himself.

 

[Politesse]

My dad posted that on FB, I guess we're still kids to him, haha.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

GEORGIA EXIT POLLS
We are talking very tight! Trump is 50.01, Harris 49.99. It is flipped from 2020. Biden had a 3 time greater difference exit poll wise.

 

[hurtinbuckaroo]

GEORGIA EXIT POLLS
We are talking very tight! Trump is 50.01, Harris 49.99. It is flipped from 2020. Biden had a 3 time greater difference exit poll wise.

Is this just Election Day votes, or early voting too?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

GEORGIA EXIT POLLS
We are talking very tight! Trump is 50.01, Harris 49.99. It is flipped from 2020. Biden had a 3 time greater difference exit poll wise.

Is this just Election Day votes, or early voting too?

I think it is everything. That is how it played out in 2020. So I'm assuming that is the case. The lead is statistically insignificant, which is I would venture to say, a good sign for Harris. I am willing to say Georgia is indeterminate and we won't know today.

 

[lostone]

At the beginning of her campaign, she came out swinging. People were vague on her policies, but strong on rejection of Trump and his plans for the country. It was working.

She surged because people were happy that Biden was no longer running. It wasn't specific to her.
And yes, she based her campaign initially on "memes and vibes". As Maya Rudolph's Kamala said: "the lyrics are vague, but the vibe slaps". Coconut trees, being a brat, Republicans are weird.

She should have stuck with it.

You can't build a campaign just on "memes and vibes" long term. And yes, she did fumble the dismount onto a more grounded phase of the campaign.

I do not believe that this is about swaying Republican voters to her side. That is unlikely in any case. What's at issue is how many people are coming to the polls.

It's not just Republicans, although I do think some Republicans are swayable. It is mostly Independents, who are plurality of the electorate.

Like it or not, the Democratic base is not enough to win. And neither is appealing to people like you who on the left even in a place like California.
She needs to win states Hillary lost in 2016 - Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. If possible Arizona and Georgia too. Nevada was won by Hillary and also Biden, but is a tossup now. She needs to appeal to voters in these states, not run up the score in NY, IL and CA.

Doesn't look like it's working.

Neither is the Republican base, alone by itself, enough to win. So we have a dance, and DJT has an enduring problem. His base will support him no matter what he does or says, but he cannot seem to gain any traction outside of that base. which, jn many ways, makes him similar to Bernie Sanders.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

North Carolina Exit Polls

North Carolina is close. Biden "won" the exit poll by 0.6%. Harris is up 1.1%. Calling it a toss up, but we can have a winner tonight.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Ohio to Trump, easy.

Sherrod Brown slight lead over Moreno. It is close. Fucking vote is looking to be in line with the polls. Within the margin of error.

 

[Shadowy Man]

Poor color choice. I was confused at first.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

PENNSYLVANIA Exit Polls

Harris's exit polls a little better than Biden in 2020! It is close, but I think she has won PA.

 

[bilby]

Poor color choice. I was confused at first.

Someone made a poor colour choice, but it was the US of A, not the Europeans. The left wing is always coloured in red, and the right wing in blue.

Just as temperatures are always measured in Celcius, and distances in Metres...

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Hopefully the exit polls comes in slightly better in MI and WI than in 2020 at 9 PM and possibly call the election.

I did already call the popular vote for Harris before today, but it's official Kamala Harris won the popular vote. Trump the first person in a while to lose three popular votes for a major party.

 

[lpetrich]

There’s more herding in swing state polls than at a sheep farm in the Scottish Highlands
noting a poll where in all 7 battleground states, both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have 47% or 48% of the vote.

NS:

Isn’t this a little convenient? Whatever happens, Redfield & Wilton — not a firm with a well-established reputation in the US — will be able to throw up their hands and say “well, we projected a tie, so don’t blame us!”. And since all of these states are also close in the polling averages, they’ll also ensure that they won’t rank at the bottom of the table of the most and least accurate pollsters — although unless the race really is that close, and it probably won’t be, they also won’t rank toward the top.

...
This is a clear-as-day example of what we call herding: the tendency of some polling firms to move with the flock by file-drawering (not publishing) results that don’t match the consensus or torturing their turnout models until they do.

This looks odd because there is good reason to expect some scatter. The states are different, and there will be sampling error. This is because a sample will not exactly represent a population, and calculating statistics from that sample will be a little off from the corresponding statistics for the entire population.

Standard deviation SD of the estimated mean = (SD of the distribution) / sqrt(N samples)
(standard error of the mean)

The relevant distribution here is a binomial distribution: the probability of one possibility being p and that of the other possibility being (1-p). The mean value of the first possibility is p, that of the second possibility is (1-p), and the standard deviation is sqrt(p*(1-p))

Calculating for the current problem, with p = 0.5 and N = 1000, the standard deviation of the distribution is 0.5, and that of the estimated mean is 1.5%.

So one expects numbers to jump around a few percent.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

NY Times is more pessimistic on the Electoral College at the moment. Have him up in PA (0.4) and NC (1.6). Showing GA up 2.6 for Trump. That'd be bad. 278 to 260. PA is the difference.

 

[Politesse]

Poor color choice. I was confused at first.

Someone made a poor colour choice, but it was the US of A, not the Europeans. The left wing is always coloured in red, and the right wing in blue.

Just as temperatures are always measured in Celcius, and distances in Metres...

They used to sort of switch back and forth a bit from election to election, before the pundits fell in love with the phrases "red state" and "blue state" during the Bush v Gore travail, and ossified the association. Neither party actually has an official color, but union organizers often use red, in solidarity with the international labor movement.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Darn it. Found a bust in the math.

GA - Trump
NC - very tight but Trump
PA - tied

 

[ZiprHead]

I'm not paying any attention until tomorrow morning. Early votes and absentee ballots get counted last in a lot of places.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Trump leading in Michigan. I can't believe "They eat the pets" got the turnout.