The Race For 2024

[ZiprHead]

Speaking of traitors allied with Russia, is Thom still doing that show on "Russia Today"?

No. He quit them years ago when it became obvious Putin was not the reformer he made himself out to be.

 

[Swammerdami]

Hilarity rules! Derec posts a graph designed to be misleading; defends it because it did NOT come from InfoWars, Facebook, or some other obvious right-wing stupidist website; pretends that what the country needs is DEFLATION. (Spoiler alert: Debtors are NOT happy with a general decline in prices). Then, when ZiprHead posts better informed numbers he whines that a chart is not a graph!

@Derec , if you're sincere about wanting better graphs try fred.stlouisfed.org . It may take a few minutes to get accustomed to the interface, but it offers much data, many tools, and flexibility.

Using Fred's data, I see that "Average Hourly Earnings of all Employees, Total Private" was $21.90 at the beginning of Obama's 1st term, $29.90 at the beginning of Biden's term, and $34.75 last month. Wages have risen with inflation. (As have my SocSec checks.)

Employment is now 158.3 Million -- that's a record. "Median usual weekly real earnings of full-time wage and salary workers" was $371 in Q4 2023 -- that's also a record if the height of the 2020 pandemic is discounted. Here "real" means "adjusted for inflation."

But Derec is correct about one thing! American voters are pitifully stupid, and will let Trump and other propagandists TELL them whether they're feeling prosperous or not, rather than just looking at their own pocketbooks. Derec -- who tells us he's voting for Biden -- and other propagandists like him will help ensure Trump victory in 23 weeks. This will be a tragedy far FAR bigger than the 9/11 attacks.

 

[ZiprHead]

More about that conference Rashida Tlaib was speaking at.
Inside the Terrorist-Connected Michigan Conference Where Rashida Tlaib Spoke

It was the PFLP-GC that was designated a terrorist organisation. They split from the PFLP in 1968.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

It seems the topic Biden is weakest on is the economy. The deluded masses actually think inflation has hurt them, even though it is down from its peak.

The high inflation definitely hurt people. Inflation rate may have come down, but that is just the rate of change. The cumulative effect of the last 3 years is still with us.

As are the higher interest rates made necessary in order to bring the inflation down.

The economy looks good on paper. But the reality is different for many people. Take housing. If you own your home, and perhaps a rental property too, things look good. If you are a young couple house hunting, things look dismal - the real estate prices are sky high, and the interest rates are also much higher than before. Btw, the high interest rates are also responsible for less churn in the real estate market. People who are still paying on their mortgage, but would like to sell and buy another property stay put instead because they are loathe to give up their <3% mortgage rate - which is free money right now since the inflation rate is around 3% itself.

He inherited the backlash from Covid fucking up the economy.

You get a much more consistent picture of the effect of a president by assigning the first year to the previous president. (Because most federal stuff is already determined.)

 

[Swammerdami]

Trump should only have been charged in a maximum of two strong cases such as the documents case and the fake elector case. Stormy Daniels hush money is a distraction.

??? - Fascists control Florida where the document case logically belongs; and that Judge was appointed by the Fascist-in-Chief himself and is deliberately helping the Defendant. I'm glad the NYAG deviated from your advice to prosecute in a venue where Trump MIGHT be convicted.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

It seems the topic Biden is weakest on is the economy. The deluded masses actually think inflation has hurt them, even though it is down from its peak. What do they know about the general state of the economy? All they know about is their grocery bill and the price of gas, which doesn't tell them anything they need to know.

We shouldn't blame the inflation on Biden.
Businesses are bouncing back from the lockdown.
I saw this comming, why didn't anyone else?
I knew it in 2020 when congress gave us taxpayers cash, trying to prevent a depression.
Even if Rump won in 2020, he couldn't have prevented the bounce-back inflation we are currently experiencing.
Just be glad it isn't worse.

And remember 2020 had very low inflation because of Covid. Long term effects will persist through the short term noise, higher inflation would be expected in 2021 even without Covid.

 

[ZiprHead]

The Shaky Foundation of Trump’s Lead: Disengaged Voters

The polls have shown Donald Trump with an edge for eight straight months, but there’s one big flashing warning sign suggesting that his advantage might not be quite as stable as it looks. That warning sign: His narrow lead is built on gains among voters who aren’t paying close attention to...

www.yahoo.com

A lot of his polled supporters don't pay any attention to politics and don't vote.

Trump’s strength among low-turnout and less engaged voters helps explain a lot of what’s strange about this election. It illustrates the disconnect between Trump’s lead in the polls and Democratic victories in lower-turnout special elections. And it helps explain Trump’s gains among young and nonwhite voters, who tend to be among the least engaged. His strength among young voters, in particular, is almost entirely found among those who did not vote in the midterms.

While the race has been stable so far, Trump’s dependence on disengaged voters makes it easy to imagine how it could quickly become more volatile. As voters tune in over the next six months, there’s a chance that disengaged but traditionally Democratic voters could revert to their usual partisan leanings. Alternately, many of these disaffected voters might ultimately stay home, which might help Biden.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

While it is true that very low interest rates are usually imposed to stimulate the economy in recessions, higher interest rates now are a product of Fed fighting high inflation. And that inflation was, in part, caused by Biden administration's loose fiscal policy. COVID giveaways lie expanded unemployment, expanded child tax credit and the last cash stimulus, were continued well after the economy reopened in 2021. Combine that with supply chain shortages and you had both supply side and demand side pressure on inflation. Note also that Biden administration wanted to exacerbate the problem with additional $3,500,000,000,000.00 in non-infrastructure spending. Thank FSM for Sinema and Manchin! They will be sorely missed in the Senate.

There was no good answer. The loose fiscal policy was to keep us out of deflation. Remember that the money supply is the total dollars out there multiplied by the rate they move around. Prices are money supply/goods. Adjusting interest rates is a much more effective control than adjusting the money supply, but because of Covid the interest rate control had pegged and was no longer useful. The only way the Fed had to keep the economy from shrinking is to dump trillions into it. And note that that did not cause inflation at that time--it was needed. Yes, it caused a bit of inflation later but nothing like what the MAGA crowd is claiming.

Note, also, that there's another factor at work--Covid. The balance between jobs and workers is sensitive the small portion of the labor force that was taken out by Covid has caused a fairly substantial increase in wages for many positions. And that drives up the cost of whatever they produce. Looks the same as inflation but it's driven by different factors. It's the usual outcome of sufficiently deadly pandemics.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Polymarket now shows Trump 56%, Biden 37% to win in November. Betfair shows 53% vs 35%.

This certainly does seem ridiculous. Trump is charged with 90+ felonies, is a traitor allied with Russia and the other worst geopolitical players; plans on fascist rule; and is a malignant narcissist. I am tempted to bet against this incontinent semi-literate cretin -- the loss of a fortune would seem inconsequential compared with the gloom and grief if this horrid creature wins.

And yet, Trump really is likely to win! Consult Thom Hartmann's free newsletter. Does this link work?

What Will Be Trump's "October Surprise"?

Such an action could swing our election toward Trump, but also risks provoking a third world war...

open.substack.com

You're assuming an honest election.

 

[robnisch]

What a heartwarming Memorial day statement tRump made. Biden should hammer him on the way he talks about vets.

 

[laughing dog]

[Removed]

Your wrote"I was looking for a cumulative inflation graph and found this one. People are sensitive to price increases even if they get raises. That explains why people feel bad about the economy despite good metrics." If that is true, then it doesn't matter what the previous inflation rates were - people should have the same bad feeling if he price level rose by 1% over the past year or 16% over the past 3 years.

Clearly that is not really true (as you seem to tacitly admit with your response about 16%).

You are wrong. Cumulative effects of several years of high inflation are clearly very different than steady, slow inflation of 2% or so, as we have been having before.

[removed] you are agreeing with the last sentence you quoted.

 

[Swammerdami]

Polymarket now shows Trump 56%, Biden 37% to win in November. Betfair shows 53% vs 35%.

This certainly does seem ridiculous. Trump is charged with 90+ felonies, is a traitor allied with Russia and the other worst geopolitical players; plans on fascist rule; and is a malignant narcissist. I am tempted to bet against this incontinent semi-literate cretin -- the loss of a fortune would seem inconsequential compared with the gloom and grief if this horrid creature wins.

And yet, Trump really is likely to win! Consult Thom Hartmann's free newsletter. Does this link work?

What Will Be Trump's "October Surprise"?

Such an action could swing our election toward Trump, but also risks provoking a third world war...

open.substack.com

You're assuming an honest election.

Am I?
In fact I would bet on a DIS-honest election, but the prediction markets have no tickets for sale on that outcome.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

This certainly does seem ridiculous. Trump is charged with 90+ felonies, is a traitor allied with Russia and the other worst geopolitical players; plans on fascist rule; and is a malignant narcissist.

That is the sales pitch, but be careful about believing your own rhetoric.

 

[Derec]

There was no good answer. The loose fiscal policy was to keep us out of deflation.

Fiscal stimulus was necessary, yes. The problem is that the Biden administration kept it going too long, long after the economy reopened, which contributed to inflation.
Extended unemployment (which paid better than many jobs and contributed to staffing shortages) did not end until September 2021 for example. Fourth stimulus checks went out in 2022. And so on.

Yes, it caused a bit of inflation later but nothing like what the MAGA crowd is claiming.

Not you too! First off, it was not "a bit of inflation". Inflation peaked at ~9%. That is significant, and the effects of it are haunting Biden still.
Second of all, pointing out the inflation does not mean that somebody is part of the "MAGA crowd".
Note, also, that there's another factor at work--Covid. The balance between jobs and workers is sensitive the small portion of the labor force that was taken out by Covid has caused a fairly substantial increase in wages for many positions. And that drives up the cost of whatever they produce. Looks the same as inflation but it's driven by different factors. It's the usual outcome of sufficiently deadly pandemics.[/QUOTE]
I do not think COVID was deadly enough for that effect, especially since ~80% of COVID deaths were in the >65 age cohort.

 

[Derec]

A lot of his polled supporters don't pay any attention to politics and don't vote.

Yes, that is a hopeful counterpoint to polls that mostly show Trump ahead.
In any case, the election will probably be close and hinge on a few key states.

 

[Derec]

??? - Fascists control Florida where the document case logically belongs; and that Judge was appointed by the Fascist-in-Chief himself and is deliberately helping the Defendant.

The opposite can be said of Judge Merchan.

I'm glad the NYAG deviated from your advice to prosecute in a venue where Trump MIGHT be convicted.

It's not NYAG but the DA of NY County. In any case, just because you drew a bad judge in a good case, does not mean that a bad case should have went forward just because the DA is a partisan hack.
Btw, another good case is in Fulton County, GA. Unfortunately, aptly named Fanni Willis could not keep it off her staff's staff, which caused a major distraction in this case.

 

[Derec]

He inherited the backlash from Covid fucking up the economy.

Yes. By no means am I saying that he is solely responsible for it.
But nevertheless he has to deal with the malaise that inflation caused.

Also, I think he is partly responsible for it, because he let COVID largess last way too long. He also let himself be manipulated into doing things like extending the eviction moratorium.

You get a much more consistent picture of the effect of a president by assigning the first year to the previous president. (Because most federal stuff is already determined.)

Sure. Trump did a lot of things wrong in 2020 and much of the chaos was unavoidable no matter who was in the Oval Office. But in 2021 Biden was in charge. The COVID programs that went on too long and caused inflation, initially thought to be transitory, to not be quite as transitory as hoped.

But however you want to apportion blame, Biden is the president now, and he has to deal with the malaise.

 

[Derec]

It was the PFLP-GC that was designated a terrorist organisation. They split from the PFLP in 1968.

Are you sure about that? From the State Department:

October 8, 1997	Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)
October 8, 1997	PFLP-General Command (PFLP-GC)

Tlaib is way out of line cavorting with terrorists.

 

[Derec]

Hilarity rules!

Some people are very easily amused, indeed.

Derec posts a graph designed to be misleading; defends it because it did NOT come from InfoWars, Facebook, or some other obvious right-wing stupidist website;

It was not misleading, and it came from a reputable news organization.

pretends that what the country needs is DEFLATION.

Reading comprehension fail. I never said that "what the country needs is DEFLATION".
I simply offered an explanation for why people are still feeling bad about inflation even though the inflation rate has gone down. The reason is the recent cumulative inflation still being felt by people.
Again, I did not say that we need deflation to counteract it. But in any case, Biden has to deal with negative feelings about the economy because everything is much more expensive. That's a fact.

(Spoiler alert: Debtors are NOT happy with a general decline in prices).

Sure. Also, debtors with fixed rate loans are in hog heaven right now. If you secured a 2.8% mortgage a few years ago, you still have an effective negative interest rate. But not everybody is in that enviable position.

Then, when ZiprHead posts better informed numbers he whines that a chart is not a graph!

That's not a whine, it's a critique of the medium. Graphs are used over tables for reasons of better visual representation.
Also, his table was not "better informed". Both were from the same source! But his was just inflation rates, NOT cumulative effect, which was my point.

if you're sincere about wanting better graphs try fred.stlouisfed.org . It may take a few minutes to get accustomed to the interface, but it offers much data, many tools, and flexibility.

I like FRED. I didn't have time to fiddle with settings and then download the image, so I posted an existing one.

Using Fred's data, I see that "Average Hourly Earnings of all Employees, Total Private" was $21.90 at the beginning of Obama's 1st term, $29.90 at the beginning of Biden's term, and $34.75 last month. Wages have risen with inflation. (As have my SocSec checks.)

Note that these are averages. Not everybody's earnings kept pace with inflation. And even if they have, the psychological effect of resenting higher prices is still potent.

Employment is now 158.3 Million -- that's a record. "Median usual weekly real earnings of full-time wage and salary workers" was $371 in Q4 2023 -- that's also a record if the height of the 2020 pandemic is discounted. Here "real" means "adjusted for inflation."

I am not trying to argue that economic metrics are not good. I am trying to explain why many people feel bad about the economy regardless.
Another reason for the the malaise might be enshittification (to borrow a term from Cory Doctorow) of many service-oriented businesses post-Pandemic. Shorter opening hours, worse service and experience and so on.

But Derec is correct about one thing! American voters are pitifully stupid, and will let Trump and other propagandists TELL them whether they're feeling prosperous or not, rather than just looking at their own pocketbooks. Derec -- who tells us he's voting for Biden -- and other propagandists like him will help ensure Trump victory in 23 weeks. This will be a tragedy far FAR bigger than the 9/11 attacks.

I keep telling you that because it is true. I do not fancy myself nearly influential enough, but if I was, I would be making Trump victory less likely by pointing out honestly where Biden is struggling. Instead of being a "yes-man" like you who can't countenance anything bad being said about his candidate. You are the ¬MAGA, as cult-like about Biden as they are about Trump.

 

[TV and credit cards]