The Race For 2024

[T.G.G. Moogly]

But very few people under the age of twenty have any such thing, nor any reasonable hope of the same.

Poli, like I said, self-serving bullshit. Wake up. Think of when you were that age. Are you just sarcastically poking around, seriously? For one thing, kids that age don't have our awareness. Fuck, their brains aren't even mature and won't be for another decade, particularly those parts of their brain that regulate impulsive thinking and behavior. I think you are engaging in more than a touch or anachronism. For fuck's sake back away from your doom and gloom cliff before your unbridled pessimism actually drives some young person to suicide or some other irrational behavior.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

This certainly does seem ridiculous. Trump is charged with 90+ felonies, is a traitor allied with Russia and the other worst geopolitical players; plans on fascist rule; and is a malignant narcissist.

That is the sales pitch, but be careful about believing your own rhetoric.

That's actually very good advice, broadly applied.

 

[Elixir]

I would be making Trump victory less likely by pointing out honestly where Biden is struggling

You’d be doing that, eh?
Despite knowing that the American electorate is so stupid that pointing out where Biden is struggling will cause them to vote for Trump?
Way to go, MAGAt.

 

[ZiprHead]

Courting Black Voters, Trump Turns to Rappers Accused in Gang Murder Plot

Toward the end of a rally in the Bronx on Thursday that his campaign staged to try to bolster and highlight his support among Black and Hispanic voters, former President Donald Trump called upon two hip-hop artists who have been accused of participating in violent gang warfare fueled in part by...

www.yahoo.com

The rappers, Sheff G and Sleepy Hallow, were among several guests invited to voice their support for Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee. After they did so, Trump expressed his gratitude, then complimented Sheff G’s glittering, jewel-encrusted grill. “I like those teeth. I want to find out where you did — I got to get my teeth like that,” he said. “I want that to happen to me.”

But Trump — who earlier in his speech had vowed to restore the rule of law in New York City, denounced urban crime and touted his allegiance to the police — did not address the charges the two men are facing: counts of conspiracy to commit murder and weapons possession.

MAGA!

 

[scombrid]

Isn't in funny what the party of Nancy Reagan is embracing.

 

[unapologetic]

Wow! That's a hugely bullshit graph.

'Cumulative inflation' is a bullshit stat.
'Cumulative inflation' was 85% in the 4years of Rump.
A realistic chart would start before Coved.

Stormy Daniels hush money is a distraction.

And it sells more newspapers (so to speak)

You're assuming an honest election.

It would be, If Rump and the republicans don't try to steal it, again.

 

[Swammerdami]

Hilarity rules!

Some people are very easily amused, indeed.

You feel a compulsion to ANSWER.EVERY.SINGLE.SENTENCE even if only with an insult. Should I feel flattered?

Derec posts a graph designed to be misleading; defends it because it did NOT come from InfoWars, Facebook, or some other obvious right-wing stupidist website;

It was not misleading, and it came from a reputable news organization.

To mimic your compulsion, I'll answer this by pointing out there are TWO errors in this ONE sentence.

pretends that what the country needs is DEFLATION.

Reading comprehension fail. I never said that "what the country needs is DEFLATION".

No. What you DID rant about was the fact that prices have not come down. You MIGHT be informed well enough to know that price DEflation is very rare and almost always UNdesirable. But because that fact didn't fit your rant, you suppressed your own knowledge.

I simply offered an explanation for why people are still feeling bad about inflation even though the inflation rate has gone down. The reason is the recent cumulative inflation still being felt by people.

Wrong again. The reason why Trumplickers resent Biden's inflation is because Fucker Carlson and Sean Hannity tell them to. Click on the following video to understand how Trump voters view Biden. It's already set to start at the appropriate clip.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=FAFbOK01uE4&t=550s

Then, when ZiprHead posts better informed numbers he whines that a chart is not a graph!

That's not a whine, it's a critique of the medium. Graphs are used over tables for reasons of better visual representation.

"Better visual representation" of blatant propaganda. Starting the graph at 1 Jan 2021 with a bold-face "Biden"??? And you STILL don't grasp that the graph was pure propaganda. The IDS is strong with you!

Your graph was pernicious propaganda; ANYTHING would be better. This was explained to you, but you have failed to comprehend or acknowledge why it was reprehensible. Your only answer amuses! Because the graph didn't seem to come from the Alt-Right it must be OK. Wrong again! American mainstream media has been dumbed-down in hopes of pounding sense into dumb brains. For years now, I've been reading non-US news sites when I want good reporting.

Also, his table was not "better informed". Both were from the same source! But his was just inflation rates, NOT cumulative effect, which was my point.

if you're sincere about wanting better graphs try fred.stlouisfed.org . It may take a few minutes to get accustomed to the interface, but it offers much data, many tools, and flexibility.

I like FRED. I didn't have time to fiddle with settings and then download the image, so I posted an existing one.

It takes about 2½ seconds to link to a FRED graph or image. How long did it take you to find your misleading anti-Biden graph?

But Derec is correct about one thing! American voters are pitifully stupid, and will let Trump and other propagandists TELL them whether they're feeling prosperous or not, rather than just looking at their own pocketbooks. Derec -- who tells us he's voting for Biden -- and other propagandists like him will help ensure Trump victory in 23 weeks. This will be a tragedy far FAR bigger than the 9/11 attacks.

I keep telling you that because it is true.

Contradicting yourself? Yesterday you recanted with something like "I won't vote for Trump; but I may or may not vote for Biden." You're in a swing state FCS! Surely you understand that a vote for Alfred E. Newman or RFK, Jr. is like half a vote for Trump. If you truly understood the danger of fascism you'd vote for WHOEVER the Democratic candidate was.

I do not fancy myself nearly influential enough, but if I was, I would be making Trump victory less likely by pointing out honestly where Biden is struggling. Instead of being a "yes-man" like you who can't countenance anything bad being said about his candidate. You are the ¬MAGA, as cult-like about Biden as they are about Trump.

WOW! I am a centrist -- albeit a radical centrist! -- who doesn't want to see one of the greatest democracies ever became a fascist rogue state. If the D's were running Joe Manchin or Mitt Romney I'd be just as adamant in supporting the anti-Trump.

Believe it or don't I'm almost on YOUR side in the on-going "How Stupid is Derec?" debate. But now, by comparing ME to Trumplickers you've demonstrated that you really are as confused and partisan as your detractors say.

 

[laughing dog]

If you truly understood the danger of fascism you'd vote for WHOEVER the Democratic candidate was.

There are no dangers of fascism in the ryes of fascists and proto-fascists.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Employment is now 158.3 Million -- that's a record. "Median usual weekly real earnings of full-time wage and salary workers" was $371 in Q4 2023 -- that's also a record if the height of the 2020 pandemic is discounted. Here "real" means "adjusted for inflation."

I am not trying to argue that economic metrics are not good. I am trying to explain why many people feel bad about the economy regardless.

Some people feel the economy sucks because we haven't dealt with inflation in my life until the last 4 or so years. That was new to my generation who is too young to remember the early 80s. But also...

Another reason for the the malaise might be enshittification (to borrow a term from Cory Doctorow) of many service-oriented businesses post-Pandemic. Shorter opening hours, worse service and experience and so on.

I'd consider one other thing. There isn't a lot of malaise, but a good deal of social media reinforcement that there is maliase. Things got hard for a while, then they let up. Most wages outpaced the inflation (hence why the inflation lasted a little longer). But it got a bit harder, and that stung. Inflation isn't rampant, social security checks bumped up thanks to the inflation that did exist, unemployment is very low and hiring is not easy. All things being equal, our economy is not is a worse state than it was in 2004, and even with Iraq starting to look like a bad mistake to the rest of the nation... W won.

But Derec is correct about one thing! American voters are pitifully stupid, and will let Trump and other propagandists TELL them whether they're feeling prosperous or not, rather than just looking at their own pocketbooks. Derec -- who tells us he's voting for Biden -- and other propagandists like him will help ensure Trump victory in 23 weeks. This will be a tragedy far FAR bigger than the 9/11 attacks.

I keep telling you that because it is true. I do not fancy myself nearly influential enough, but if I was, I would be making Trump victory less likely by pointing out honestly where Biden is struggling. Instead of being a "yes-man" like you who can't countenance anything bad being said about his candidate. You are the ¬MAGA, as cult-like about Biden as they are about Trump.

I'd say the trouble is Biden is acting no more old than Trump is. And that is a big part of the argument against Biden, he's old. That isn't a viable criticism when the person making said argument is supporting Trump who has exhibited issues of age as well. Biden's other main issue is messaging (a long time Democrat deficiency) which is in part because he is too old to be charismatic. Biden isn't a great candidate, but he beat Trump, and as things stand, it looks like he probably should again, holding onto the wall and taking either Arizona or Nevada.

What are the canaries? Look at the Senate race in Arizona. If the Dem is up there, that is good for the Democrats holding the White House. If the Dems are losing the Senate in Wisconsin, might be time to head north of the border.

 

[Derec]

'Cumulative inflation' is a bullshit stat.

Why?

'Cumulative inflation' was 85% in the 4years of Rump.

No, it wasn't. It was ~8%.

A realistic chart would start before Coved.

What's "Coved"?
I actually agree, as it would have showed how much faster prices grew 2021-2023 than in the decade before.
It would not make your ridiculous and wholly made up case about the 85% cumulative inflation under Trump.

 

[Derec]

There are no dangers of fascism in the ryes of fascists and proto-fascists.

Ryes?

"Fascism" is such an overused word these days. Especially when you have Dem congresswoman Rashida Tlaib cavorting with actual fascists in Detroit.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

After a hastily arranged event in DC on January 6th, 2021, Trump's brown-shirts marched to and broke into the US Capitol building to stop the election. Like actual Congress, which was evacuated as a result. To the glee of Trump, who refused to 'call it off' as his Cable News buddies pleaded with him to do so. He'd act way too late. The National Guard was called in (by others). All of this after about two months of Trump claiming the election was stolen, even when he was told repeatedly that it wasn't.

In 2024 that is considered fascism. Maybe in the same way as the word irony means something different now than it did, but Trump caused January 6th.

 

[laughing dog]

'Cumulative inflation' is a bullshit stat.

Why?

'Cumulative inflation' was 85% in the 4years of Rump.

No, it wasn't. It was ~8%.

A realistic chart would start before Coved.

What's "Coved"?
I actually agree, as it would have showed how much faster prices grew 2021-2023 than in the decade before.
It would not make your ridiculous and wholly made up case about the 85% cumulative inflation under Trump.

You are misattributing quotes because I never wrote those responses.

 

[Derec]

You are misattributing quotes because I never wrote those responses.

Unintentionally. I fixed it now.

 

[unapologetic]

"wholly made up case about the 85% cumulative inflation under Trump."
Mm, yeah.
I got that from adding up all the monthly percentages for the 4 years of Rump.
I have since added up the monthly percentages for Biden.
It too is in the high double digits.
So i'm confused. Just what is 'cumulative inflation'? If not the total.

 

[laughing dog]

"wholly made up case about the 85% cumulative inflation under Trump."
Mm, yeah.
I got that from adding up all the monthly percentages for the 4 years of Rump.
I have since added up the monthly percentages for Biden.
It too is in the high double digits.
So i'm confused. Just what is 'cumulative inflation'? If not the total.

The easiest way to think of it is that it is the overall increase in the price level from time x to time y. So, if the CPI was 120.2 in one period and 135.6 some time later, the cumulative rate of inflation is 135.6/120.2 - 1 = 0.128 or 12.8%. That is price level is 12.8% higher in 135.6 than it was when it was 120.2. That is true whether the intervening periods are 4 days, 4 quarters, 4 years or 40 years!

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So when looking at the CPI chart, inflation under Biden was higher than under Trump. Of course, there was a global pandemic in '20-'21 which had a "slight" impact on the global economy. Biden didn't stop inflation any more than he caused it. Of course, Trump pressured the Fed to lower rates for short term gains.

 

[unapologetic]

Please define CPI.
I'm still not clear why the monthly increases don't add up to the 3 year increase.
Wouldn't the 3 year % be close to, or an average of the monthlies?

You are ignoring the effects of the Covid lockdown. More than normal numbers were put out of work and/or retired. (I did) Congress gave a lot of handouts to stave off a depression. (I got one) Now we are paying for that with an increase in prices. blaming it on presidential Policys is bullshit.

 

[laughing dog]

Please define CPI.

Consumer Price Index.

I'm still not clear why the monthly increases don't add up to the 3 year increase.
Wouldn't the 3 year % be close to, or an average of the monthlies?

If the monthly increases are reported as the percentage change from month to month, then yes. Typically, reported monthly inflation rates are annualized (converted to inflation over a year instead of month to month).

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

We can argue about how much of it was Trump's fault, but the average voter has the memory of a goldfish. If Biden doesn't find a way to get ahead of this then Trump will hammer him for it. The average voter sees what they see at the grocery store and the gas pump. How will Biden convince them to trust him instead of their lying eyes?