The Virus - Are You Affected?

[SimpleDon]

View attachment 32051


"It's just a bad flu."

Could you define "Covid death", for the purposes of this graph? Does it include everyone who tested positive before dying? What about people on the verge of death, from other causes, but went over the edge after testing positive. With no particular reason to think that C19 was the primary cause of death?

What does Covid death mean in this particular instance?
Tom

I assume that these are deaths that the doctors attributed to COVID-19 on the death certificate. Which is probably an under-count. What we need to is the excess mortality in the US for 2020. I haven't seen the numbers for the whole of 2020 but for the various months of the pandemic, they were averaging 10 to 25% above what would be normally expected. For the entire year, the CDC is estimating that the death rate in the US will be 18% higher than it was in 2019 and they estimated that 2,852,609 people died in 2019. 18% of 2,852,609 is 513,469. They listed 377,214 deaths from COVID-19 in 2020. It doesn't take much imagination to say that the majority of the about 170,000 increase in the expected deaths were also due to the pandemic and COVID-19. The CDC data is here.

As a side note, I had COVID-19 in the second week of February 2020. This was so early in the pandemic that if I had died it won't have been recorded as death from COVID-19. I only realized that I was sick with COVID-19 when my brother told me that he tested positive for the COVID-19 antibodies. He got the disease from his son before he flew to Atlanta to join us on our trip to Dauphin Island. I got tested to be involved with the donation of anti-bodies to treat the people who were seriously ill with the disease which I participated in until October when the test showed no antibodies present in my blood.

 

[barbos]

Just got first shot of the vaccine.

 

[DrZoidberg]

It's beyond bizarre that the disease became a political issue in the US. Like climate change, the pandemic was a problem that could only be tackled by a strong and competent central government, which contravenes current conservative dogma, which dictates a small, largely ineffective federal government and competence is something conservatives can't apparently provide when they are running the government. So like they do with the problems resulting from climate change, conservatives chose to ignore, as much possible, the pandemic and the federal government's role in solving the problems created by the pandemic, beyond the problems of the large corporations, of course.

It's a political issue everywhere. And I don't think it's beyond bizarre. Lots of people have had their businesses destroyed. Almost everybody in the entertainment industry are fucked. We know how humans are easily manipulated and self serving. If I have an incentive to hold a particular opinion, I'm more likely to find ways to justify it. No matter how stupid it is. Especially smart people who aren't deep thinkers, entrepreneurial types and hustlers, are Covid hoax believers.

USA had the added problem of a leader that... well... was part of the problem. In a disaster weak leadership can make a bad problem worse. Which is what happened in USA.

But it's still political everywhere. It's not necessarily a left/right divide. But certain groups are more or less for the limitations.

The fact that some people have an issue with face masks. Now that is beyond bizarre. It's barely an inconvenience. Yet became something people argued about.

 

[barbos]

Just got first shot of the vaccine.

Definitely feeling light side effects - common cold like symptoms.
I guess I got real vaccine, not some bootleg.

 

[atrib]

Just got the first dose of the Moderna vaccine yesterday. No side effects so far other than a slight stiffness in the muscle where the shot was administered.

I had gone by my pharmacy to pick up some medication last night, and the pharmacist asked me if I wanted to get the vaccine. They had an open vial with a couple of doses remaining which would go to waste if it wasn't used last night, so they were giving it out to random people. Under the SCDHEC criteria, I wouldn't have been eligible for the vaccine until sometime in summer. Guess I got lucky. Have a followup for the booster dose in a month.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Just got the first dose of the Moderna vaccine yesterday. No side effects so far other than a slight stiffness in the muscle where the shot was administered.

I had gone by my pharmacy to pick up some medication last night, and the pharmacist asked me if I wanted to get the vaccine. They had an open vial with a couple of doses remaining which would go to waste if it wasn't used last night, so they were giving it out to random people. Under the SCDHEC criteria, I wouldn't have been eligible for the vaccine until sometime in summer. Guess I got lucky. Have a followup for the booster dose in a month.

That's what happens when you go to pick up meds with a fake walker.

Got my second dose yesterday and feel like crap today, unlike the first dose. I think I may have been dehydrated which is said to be a big no-no.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

People who got the placebo had about 12% effectiveness, so I just planned on taking 8 placebo shots to get up to 96% effectiveness. There is no shortage of those.

 

[barbos]

Just got first shot of the vaccine.

Definitely feeling light side effects - common cold like symptoms.
I guess I got real vaccine, not some bootleg.

Definitely real thing, full blown flue symptoms during whole night. Could not get to sleep at all.
high temperature, chills, muscle pain. I hope it's a sign of immune system working well.

 

[Keith&Co.]

Just got first shot of the vaccine.

Definitely feeling light side effects - common cold like symptoms.
I guess I got real vaccine, not some bootleg.

Definitely real thing, full blown flue symptoms during whole night. Could not get to sleep at all.
high temperature, chills, muscle pain. I hope it's a sign of immune system working well.

Flue syptoms does make it an open & shut case.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Just got first shot of the vaccine.

Definitely feeling light side effects - common cold like symptoms.
I guess I got real vaccine, not some bootleg.

Definitely real thing, full blown flue symptoms during whole night. Could not get to sleep at all.
high temperature, chills, muscle pain. I hope it's a sign of immune system working well.

Didn't sleep so wonderfully last night and am not feeling much better this evening. It sucks. I took 10mg Loratadine twenty minutes ago which should help. Definitely got the real deal. Funny how the first dose didn't have much effect.

 

[Ruth Harris]

Definitely real thing, full blown flue symptoms during whole night. Could not get to sleep at all.
high temperature, chills, muscle pain. I hope it's a sign of immune system working well.

Didn't sleep so wonderfully last night and am not feeling much better this evening. It sucks. I took 10mg Loratadine twenty minutes ago which should help. Definitely got the real deal. Funny how the first dose didn't have much effect.

I get my second Moderna dose this coming Monday. All I had with the first dose was a minor sore arm for about 24 hours. Which vaccine did you get?

Ruth

 

[barbos]

Definitely real thing, full blown flue symptoms during whole night. Could not get to sleep at all.
high temperature, chills, muscle pain. I hope it's a sign of immune system working well.

Didn't sleep so wonderfully last night and am not feeling much better this evening. It sucks. I took 10mg Loratadine twenty minutes ago which should help. Definitely got the real deal. Funny how the first dose didn't have much effect.

I am just tired after night of not sleeping. I think I will sleep fine from now on. Until the second shot

 

[bilby]

View attachment 32051


"It's just a bad flu."

Could you define "Covid death", for the purposes of this graph? Does it include everyone who tested positive before dying? What about people on the verge of death, from other causes, but went over the edge after testing positive. With no particular reason to think that C19 was the primary cause of death?

What does Covid death mean in this particular instance?
Tom

What does Flu death mean in this particular instance? Perhaps your quest for a less scary truth could start there instead.

Though it might lead to a very scary (but real) result.

 

[bilby]

Not really, I always was a nasty piece of work.

The fact that people are overly anxious and irrational about this virus doesn't make it harmless or just a flu.

I have never once said that it is harmless. It is fucking deadly to the old and infirm which is where as much as 40%-50% of the fatalities occur. And then it starts to pick off the health compromised, the obese, the diabetics etc. And of course there are the anomalies that people get all worked up about. I know a guy (well, I met him a few times) the same age as me, possibly a few years younger who died and I don't know of any underlying health conditions that would have contributed to that but I suspect there may have been something.

I think you aren't anxious enough IMHO. Either position on this is wrong. Being overly anxious is better than being overly relaxed. Less people die.

The reason I am not anxious is that I understand the risk involved to me

It's not all about you, <DELETED>.

and I ignore the fearmongering bullshit that the media pumps out in their clickbait headlines. I'm pretty sure you do too which is why you are not as anxious as your friend but possibly more anxious than me.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Definitely real thing, full blown flue symptoms during whole night. Could not get to sleep at all.
high temperature, chills, muscle pain. I hope it's a sign of immune system working well.

Didn't sleep so wonderfully last night and am not feeling much better this evening. It sucks. I took 10mg Loratadine twenty minutes ago which should help. Definitely got the real deal. Funny how the first dose didn't have much effect.

I get my second Moderna dose this coming Monday. All I had with the first dose was a minor sore arm for about 24 hours. Which vaccine did you get?

Ruth

Got the Moderna. The first dose - not much of any reaction. Did manage to sleep well last night because the night before probably didn't get more than a couple hours sleep, typical flu like effect after the second dose.

Now I'm in the 6.8% group that's received both doses. Hooray for me!

 

[southernhybrid]

I had some very mild side effects from my second dose of the Pfizer vaccine. My sister and bro in law had flu like symptoms for less than 24 hours after their second dose of the Moderna vaccine. The friend who told me they were giving vaccines at our local hospital had no side effects and her husband had mild side effects from his second dose. My husband had no side effects from his second dose. Yet, that are a high percentage of Americans who have believed the nonsensical conspiracy theories regarding the vaccine. The nuttiest one I've heard this week is that the vaccine will give you a full blown case of COVID. That came from someone who my neighbor knows.

Less than half of the teachers in Georgia are willing to get the vaccine, and about 30% of nurses in Georgia aren't willing to be vaccinated. This morning I read that about 30% of active military are refusing the vaccine. Since the vaccine has only been given emergency approval, the military won't force its members to be vaccinated until its given full approval. Unless more people are willing to be vaccinated, herd immunity will be impossible to achieve.

Young people are the ones who spread the virus while dying or needing to be hospitalized at a much lower rate compared to older people. I look at the chart at the Georgia Dept. of Health everyday. The death rate here for those of 80 is over 20%, while for those under 30, it's less than 1%. It's the carelessness of the younger population that is stressing the health care system. The number of older adults who become infected is very small compared to the younger folks. Older adults are just at a much higher risk of having severe symptoms, that may require hospitalization. It's not just about death. It's about the enormous amount of stress that the virus has put on hospitals and those who care for the victims of this virus.

Btw, just because a person is in their 70s or 80s doesn't mean that they have underlying health conditions or that they aren't still living an enjoyable, meaningful life. It's disheartening to see people act like it's no big deal that grandma died of COVID. Grandma might have had another good 10 or more years of life to live before this virus killed her. I can tell you as one who is retired, that retirement can be the happiest time in your life. Nobody wants those final years snatched away from them due to a virus that has spread largely due to the thoughtlessness of other people.

And, if you're afraid of the vaccine, think of my 95 year old mother who is in a nursing home and on hospice. She received both doses of the vaccine without any side effects, yet her hospice nurse is scared of the vaccine and has refused to take it. WTF!

 

[TSwizzle]

My wife had her first dose of the Pfizer vaccine a few days ago and no side effects. She works in an elementary school and kids will be back in class Tuesday.

 

[crazyfingers]

Being not quite 60 years old and no underlying condition that bump me up the list, I have no freaking idea when I'll be able to tell you if I had any side effects from the vaccine. It could be April. It could be December.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I assume that these are deaths that the doctors attributed to COVID-19 on the death certificate. Which is probably an under-count. What we need to is the excess mortality in the US for 2020. I haven't seen the numbers for the whole of 2020 but for the various months of the pandemic, they were averaging 10 to 25% above what would be normally expected. For the entire year, the CDC is estimating that the death rate in the US will be 18% higher than it was in 2019 and they estimated that 2,852,609 people died in 2019. 18% of 2,852,609 is 513,469. They listed 377,214 deaths from COVID-19 in 2020. It doesn't take much imagination to say that the majority of the about 170,000 increase in the expected deaths were also due to the pandemic and COVID-19. The CDC data is here.

I strongly suspect the actual 2020 Covid death count is greater than that 513,469 number--lockdown reduced other deaths--many countries showed temporary dips below the normal death rate at the start.

 

[bilby]

I assume that these are deaths that the doctors attributed to COVID-19 on the death certificate. Which is probably an under-count. What we need to is the excess mortality in the US for 2020. I haven't seen the numbers for the whole of 2020 but for the various months of the pandemic, they were averaging 10 to 25% above what would be normally expected. For the entire year, the CDC is estimating that the death rate in the US will be 18% higher than it was in 2019 and they estimated that 2,852,609 people died in 2019. 18% of 2,852,609 is 513,469. They listed 377,214 deaths from COVID-19 in 2020. It doesn't take much imagination to say that the majority of the about 170,000 increase in the expected deaths were also due to the pandemic and COVID-19. The CDC data is here.

I strongly suspect the actual 2020 Covid death count is greater than that 513,469 number--lockdown reduced other deaths--many countries showed temporary dips below the normal death rate at the start.

Australia has shown a significant reduction in mortality, as the measures taken that successfully contained COVID have also significantly reduced the incidence of other infectious diseases, notably seasonal influenza.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported:

Age-standardised death rates

Age-standardised death rates (SDRs) enable the comparison of deaths over time and between different population groups as they account for changes in both the size and age structure of the population. An additional table (1.2) has been added to the weekly dashboard with SDRs for doctor certified deaths in 2020 and for the comparison 5 year period. Confidence intervals are also provided to assist with interpretation.

The reported SDRs represent the rate of doctor certified deaths recorded per 100,000 people. SDRs for 2020 have been calculated using provisional doctor certified mortality data for the numerator and estimated resident population projections as the denominator. While they provide a robust measure for comparison across time periods they should not be taken as the official death rate for Australia.

Key statistics

SDRs for doctor certified deaths in 2020 have been generally lower than the historical average recorded for the same weeks between 2015-2019.

The exception to this is the week ending 31 March where a rate of 8.5 deaths per 100,000 people was recorded. This compares to a 5 year average of 8.3 deaths per 100,000 people. This week coincides with higher numbers of COVID-19 infections and stricter lockdown measures being implemented in Australia.

During the winter months, the SDR is between 9-10 deaths per 100,000 people on average. During winter in 2020 the SDR has remained under 9.0.

The SDR for deaths due to pneumonia was 0.2 per 100,000 people between the weeks ending 31 March and 14 April. This compares to a 5 year average SDR of 0.1 for the same period.

https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/measuring-excess-mortality-australia-during-covid-19-pandemic