The Virus - Are You Affected?

[seanie]

So when do you reckon the number of US confirmed cases will be double those of China?

Tuesday?

Or do you think you'll manage it by end of play Monday?

View attachment 26768

Looks like end of play Monday Derec.

 

[marc]

I’m expecting 10,000 deaths by Easter

 

[seanie]

I’m expecting 10,000 deaths by Easter

I'd say 20,000.

 

[hurtinbuckaroo]

Maybe I’m missing something with my numbers. About 25 million Americans get the flu each year, even with a moderately effective vaccine available, and about 25,000 (0.1%) die. COVID is easily transmitted, there is no vaccine, and the death rate is 10 times higher. So how do we get out of this with only 100k deaths, even if there’s enough medical equipment to go around?

Shouldn’t we be looking at 250-500k? With the anticipated shortages, even 1 million?

 

[Rhea]

Maybe we get out of this by lockdown.

 

[Politesse]

Maybe I’m missing something with my numbers. About 25 million Americans get the flu each year, even with a moderately effective vaccine available, and about 25,000 (0.1%) die. COVID is easily transmitted, there is no vaccine, and the death rate is 10 times higher. So how do we get out of this with only 100k deaths, even if there’s enough medical equipment to go around?

Shouldn’t we be looking at 250-500k? With the anticipated shortages, even 1 million?

On the other hand, we're taking considerable measures to slow transmission to a level our health system can handle without playing constant death-stakes triage in the lobby, in a way that we usually don't with influenza until things get very bad indeed. It is unlikely that COVID-19 will ever reach the horrific levels that influenza itself has sometimes reached, in part because we are aware of it and taking rather severe measures to curb its spread.

When this disease leaves the affluent world and starts seriously impacting poor and disenfranchised tropical communities, the global death rate will skyrocket. We need to brace ourselves for a very bad situation, and the extremely high likelihood of more than one wave of this disease.

 

[DrZoidberg]

My ex wife is the director of a hospice in Stockholm. All the patients are infected. All the staff are infected. She's home out of commission. Herself very sick. Staff is all home with varying seriousness of symptoms. Due to shortages of staff, unqualified extras are running the home. Not a single one is a qualified nurse. But only the patients with seroius symptoms have been moved to hospitals. All of her patients where high risk patients. To be fair... already dying...ish. Still sucks. They could have had a couple of more years to go. There's a substantial risk that all her patients will die now. No blame will land in her lap. She did what she could. These are extraordinary circumstances. They tried to keep Corona out, but failed. Due to the classification of these patients they are lowest priority to the ICUs. Since they already are officially dying. So they're pretty much on their own. Because of isolation rules they won't be able to be with their family during this. They will all die alone.

Stuff like this really brings the reality of it home.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

They will all die alone.

Having literally been at the beginning of this with my father, this hits home so hard... and just won't stop. The night my father would ultimately pass away was when the hospitals began the new protocol regarding limiting visitors and hours due to Covid-19. We were 'lucky' that this happened his final night and his family was able to visit him (when conscious and to say goodbye). In general, we were low exposure because we spent so much time at the hospital. It hurt having my dad's family leave because the max daily visitors was becoming two (my mother and myself). And then we were supposed to leave due to hours, but circumstances and the RNs allowed otherwise.

In some parts I regret staying because the images till haunt me, but I know not being able to be with my father just one day or night (I spent his last three weeks with him in the hospital) would have been hell.

I can imagine how family's must be feeling, not being allowed to be with their dying or hurting loved ones in so many cases in the hospitals, regardless if they are suffering from Covid-19 or a stroke or a heart attack or cancer surgery. Tens of thousands of anonymous patients without loved ones, without their advocates, at the whim of fate and how good their nurse is at reading their discomfort.

Thousands have died, but over tens of thousands of families are suffering so greatly from this gap.

 

[Elixir]

Maybe I’m missing something with my numbers. About 25 million Americans get the flu each year, even with a moderately effective vaccine available, and about 25,000 (0.1%) die. COVID is easily transmitted, there is no vaccine, and the death rate is 10 times higher. So how do we get out of this with only 100k deaths, even if there’s enough medical equipment to go around?

Shouldn’t we be looking at 250-500k? With the anticipated shortages, even 1 million?

On the other hand, we're taking considerable measures to slow transmission to a level our health system can handle without playing constant death-stakes triage in the lobby, in a way that we usually don't with influenza until things get very bad indeed. It is unlikely that COVID-19 will ever reach the horrific levels that influenza itself has sometimes reached, in part because we are aware of it and taking rather severe measures to curb its spread.

When this disease leaves the affluent world and starts seriously impacting poor and disenfranchised tropical communities, the global death rate will skyrocket. We need to brace ourselves for a very bad situation, and the extremely high likelihood of more than one wave of this disease.

I think that's a very realistic view of the current situation. There is very little indication that it's going get anything but much much worse in the near term, BUT - - -
Not to raise any fanciful hopes, but it is also true that there is more intense focus and more resources concentrated on this virus than any disease in history. There are so many treatments, vaccines etc. being developed and studied, regulations being waived and (unfortunately) mountains of real time data available to researchers that it would not be terribly surprising if there was one or more significant breakthroughs in coming weeks and months.
Absent any progress, millions will certainly die. Maybe even hundreds of millions.

 

[DrZoidberg]

They will all die alone.

Having literally been at the beginning of this with my father, this hits home so hard... and just won't stop. The night my father would ultimately pass away was when the hospitals began the new protocol regarding limiting visitors and hours due to Covid-19. We were 'lucky' that this happened his final night and his family was able to visit him (when conscious and to say goodbye). In general, we were low exposure because we spent so much time at the hospital. It hurt having my dad's family leave because the max daily visitors was becoming two (my mother and myself). And then we were supposed to leave due to hours, but circumstances and the RNs allowed otherwise.

In some parts I regret staying because the images till haunt me, but I know not being able to be with my father just one day or night (I spent his last three weeks with him in the hospital) would have been hell.

I can imagine how family's must be feeling, not being allowed to be with their dying or hurting loved ones in so many cases in the hospitals, regardless if they are suffering from Covid-19 or a stroke or a heart attack or cancer surgery. Tens of thousands of anonymous patients without loved ones, without their advocates, at the whim of fate and how good their nurse is at reading their discomfort.

Thousands have died, but over tens of thousands of families are suffering so greatly from this gap.

My ex wife is in a really bad shape mentally over this. The situation has really crushed her. She feels so guilty about not having been able to do more. Anxiety out of control. And just the basics of having connected with and built relationships with a big group of people all going at once. She's worked in hospices 15 years now. She's not afraid of death and dying. But this is more than she can cope with.

 

[DrZoidberg]

So when do you reckon the number of US confirmed cases will be double those of China?

Confirmed cases is a worthless number. Even South Korea and Iceland (who are are at the top of testing) are still testing a tiny fraction of the population. USA is among the worst testers in the world, they still have many confirmed. There's countries in Africa where the numbers of confirmed cases is identical to that of the number of dead, ie only people already dead are tested. In Italy they only test people who are extremely ill, which is why they have a death rate of 40%. It does NOT mean that four out of ten infected in Italy die from it. That's not understanding how statistics work.

Stop using that number!!! It's only misleading.

Instead only compare confirmed dead from Covid-19. It's the only number that means the same thing across the globe. Also, don't trust China's numbers. Hot tip. They have never been honest about anything else ever... So why would they start now? This time around they seem to be more open an cooperative than they have been previously. But that ain't saying much.

 

[bleubird]

Still working part time at conve/liquor store.I will be 68 next month.High risk,no shit.

 

[ZiprHead]

Armed vigilantes blocked a neighbor's driveway with a tree to force him into quarantine

 

[TV and credit cards]

They will all die alone.

Having literally been at the beginning of this with my father, this hits home so hard... and just won't stop. The night my father would ultimately pass away was when the hospitals began the new protocol regarding limiting visitors and hours due to Covid-19. We were 'lucky' that this happened his final night and his family was able to visit him (when conscious and to say goodbye). In general, we were low exposure because we spent so much time at the hospital. It hurt having my dad's family leave because the max daily visitors was becoming two (my mother and myself). And then we were supposed to leave due to hours, but circumstances and the RNs allowed otherwise.

In some parts I regret staying because the images till haunt me, but I know not being able to be with my father just one day or night (I spent his last three weeks with him in the hospital) would have been hell.

I can imagine how family's must be feeling, not being allowed to be with their dying or hurting loved ones in so many cases in the hospitals, regardless if they are suffering from Covid-19 or a stroke or a heart attack or cancer surgery. Tens of thousands of anonymous patients without loved ones, without their advocates, at the whim of fate and how good their nurse is at reading their discomfort.

Thousands have died, but over tens of thousands of families are suffering so greatly from this gap.

I doubt my mom will go to hospice now. She is at that point as far as being able to care for herself. Her church friend, in her seventies and ten years her junior has now decided to stay with her around the clock. I don't know if I should visit or not. I feel like I'm doing the wrong thing either way. Death is not the issue, being without family is. But I know I need to focus on my daughter & granddaughter now. At least mom is at home.

 

[Jokodo]

So when do you reckon the number of US confirmed cases will be double those of China?

Confirmed cases is a worthless number. Even South Korea and Iceland (who are are at the top of testing) are still testing a tiny fraction of the population. USA is among the worst testers in the world, they still have many confirmed. There's countries in Africa where the numbers of confirmed cases is identical to that of the number of dead, ie only people already dead are tested. In Italy they only test people who are extremely ill, which is why they have a death rate of 40%. It does NOT mean that four out of ten infected in Italy die from it. That's not understanding how statistics work.

Stop using that number!!! It's only misleading.

Instead only compare confirmed dead from Covid-19. It's the only number that means the same thing across the globe.

...and maybe not even that. France is (I think even officially?) not counting deaths outside of hospital contexts, so a lot of people are dying of COVID-19 without showing up in any statistics - and their share is presumably growing as hospitals are more stretched to their limits and send away people with symptoms that might or might not be on track to become serious. Some Italian communes have excess mortality figures 4-10 times higher than the official count of COVID-19 deaths: https://www.corriere.it/politica/20...rs-b5af0edc-6eeb-11ea-925b-a0c3cdbe1130.shtml

 

[barbos]

Chinese may be lying about absolute numbers but not about the fact that they managed to get it under control.

 

[ZiprHead]

CNN Chris Cuomo has the virus.

 

[seanie]

So when do you reckon the number of US confirmed cases will be double those of China?

Confirmed cases is a worthless number. Even South Korea and Iceland (who are are at the top of testing) are still testing a tiny fraction of the population. USA is among the worst testers in the world, they still have many confirmed. There's countries in Africa where the numbers of confirmed cases is identical to that of the number of dead, ie only people already dead are tested. In Italy they only test people who are extremely ill, which is why they have a death rate of 40%. It does NOT mean that four out of ten infected in Italy die from it. That's not understanding how statistics work.

Stop using that number!!! It's only misleading.

Instead only compare confirmed dead from Covid-19. It's the only number that means the same thing across the globe. Also, don't trust China's numbers. Hot tip. They have never been honest about anything else ever... So why would they start now? This time around they seem to be more open an cooperative than they have been previously. But that ain't saying much.

The confirmed number of US dead could overtake China's within a couple of hours from now.

So when do you reckon the number of US confirmed dead will be double those of China?

By the weekend?

When will it be 10 times those of China?

 

[seanie]

Sorry, just re-checked.

You're now ahead of China in official deaths.

 

[seanie]

So the current US death toll is officially 3,756, US deaths are doubling about every 3 days, and Easter is 12 days away.

So you could maybe match the entire US death toll from the Vietnam war in the space of about 6 weeks.