The World-O-Meter Thread

[Derec]

Not a higher population density than New York City. Also, Europe has more than twice the population of the US. The EU alone (which doesn't cover all of Europe) has over 500M. What's true is that the USA has more people than any single European country.

Yes, and the Worldometer numbers are given by country, not EU as a whole.

New York state has 19.5m population and a peacetime death rate of 0.8% per year. By my math, that works out as about 430 deaths on an average day. Yesterday, New York recorded 372 COVID-19 deaths, most of them in NYC. We can safely assume that the overall death rate has already at least doubled due to COVID-19 there, and the numbers are still rising relentlessly.

I think some "peacetime" deaths decreased due to social distancing. Traffic fatalities for one, and other accidental deaths. Murders probably too. Then there is the fact that since COVID deaths are disproportionally old and ill, some of the COVID dead would have been dead soon anyway.

I'm afraid when New York peaks, Wuhan and Milan during their respective peaks will look like promising destinations for a weekend trip. Scary.

I hope you are wrong on that. I think NY reacted better than Lombardy, so I definitely have hope NY will not be nearly as bad.

 

[Jokodo]

Yes, and the Worldometer numbers are given by country, not EU as a whole.


I think some "peacetime" deaths decreased due to social distancing. Traffic fatalities for one, and other accidental deaths. Murders probably too. Then there is the fact that since COVID deaths are disproportionally old and ill, some of the COVID dead would have been dead soon anyway.

I'm afraid when New York peaks, Wuhan and Milan during their respective peaks will look like promising destinations for a weekend trip. Scary.

I hope you are wrong on that. I think NY reacted better than Lombardy, so I definitely have hope NY will not be nearly as bad.

Well I hope so too, I'm just not seeing it.

 

[Elixir]

04-01

View attachment 26867

Lots of new records of course. Over 5k deaths now, ramped up to a thousand a day and rising. Now at 15 deaths/million population. Early March I was hoping we would top out at around 100/m but that's now a pipe dream. We'll be lucky if we end up below 500/m and it will probably be several times that. The only good news is that Trump now seems dimly aware of the fact at least hundreds of thousands of people are going to die, and is preparing to give himself a big old attaboy when that happens.

The more this administration pats itself on the back without doing anything substantial, the worse the outlook for this country. Every day Fauci paints the rosiest picture his conscience will allow, Cheato gives lip service to that outlook and proceeds to do whatever he thinks best serves his self interest for the next day. Almost as if he thinks he can just change his story any time he wants, say "I didn't say that" when challenged, and his trumpsuckers will believe it.

Oh, right.... never mind.

 

[Elixir]

Seriously dude - you do yourself no favors by sounding like Half-Whatever.

Since I never said that this thing will be over by April, I definitely do not sound like him.
Just because I don't subscribe to "we are all doomed" chicken little shit does not mean I am downplaying the seriousness of the situation.

Guess I should apologize for that snark. I know you're not in his ...uh, ballpark. But the sensible alternative to his idiocy is not, IMHO, to maintain a rhetorical bias toward an optimal outcome that becomes worse looking every day, but to raise the alarm that seemingly has yet to be heard in the darkest corners of American stupidity.
Without universal compliance with distancing and other precautions, we're just pushing the recovery horizon back further and further. That applies to both the health recovery and the economic recovery.
So... there's my backhanded apology/excuse - sorry.

 

[Derec]

Lots of new records of course. Over 5k deaths now, ramped up to a thousand a day and rising. Now at 15 deaths/million population.

Things will keep rising. Cumulative cases and cumulative deaths can't go down, by definition.
What is important is to look at daily numbers. They are still increasing, but the rate of increase seems to be slowing. That is good news.

Early March I was hoping we would top out at around 100/m but that's now a pipe dream. We'll be lucky if we end up below 500/m and it will probably be several times that. The only good news is that Trump now seems dimly aware of the fact at least hundreds of thousands of people are going to die, and is preparing to give himself a big old attaboy when that happens.

327k deaths would be 1000/million, or 0.1% of the population. That would not be the worst possible outcome, if it's the grand total, although of course we could have done better with more competent leadership. Unfortunately, I am not terribly impressed with Biden either. The biggest Democratic field probably ever, and this is what we end up with to challenge Trump? Biden really should have run in 2016. He was 4 years younger and he could have won where Hillary lost. And he would have been orders of magnitude more competent in this crisis, even if only because he would have delegated to a much better team.
But now? Hopelessly over the hill.

 

[Derec]

Guess I should apologize for that snark.

I think you should.

But the sensible alternative to his idiocy is not, IMHO, to maintain a rhetorical bias toward an optimal outcome that becomes worse looking every day, but to raise the alarm that seemingly has yet to be heard in the darkest corners of American stupidity.

Alarm needed to be raised. And while it's too much to expect any alarm will be hard in the darkest corners of American stupidity (some idiotic Pennsylvania pastor wants to organize a "Christian Woodstock" for Easter) being too fatalistic and not acknowledging that social distancing measures are showing some success is not the right alternative either.

Without universal compliance with distancing and other precautions, we're just pushing the recovery horizon back further and further. That applies to both the health recovery and the economic recovery.
So... there's my backhanded apology/excuse - sorry.

Acknowledging that social distancing measures are working is not a call to relax them now or not to comply. Quite the opposite. And I think you are missing the point. The social distancing is slowing the recovery. Not doing anything would mean quicker recovery but many would needlessly die because the health system would be overwhelmed several times over. Social distancing is pushing the peak back and by doing that making the peak less tall. Also, by delaying the peak, it buys time to procure more equipment, testing and perhaps even have better treatment options.

 

[fromderinside]

I'll accept the keep it upbeat when young people actually do stay at home, don't in-person party, and take things as seriously. You know, as we did during vietnam era when when we actually shuffled off to Canada to reduce cannon fodder supply.

Until then we need keep wearing disaster hair shirts to prevent young people from not having access to grandparents.

Young scare easily yano. I remember. I was one once.

 

[Jokodo]

View attachment 26867

Lots of new records of course. Over 5k deaths now, ramped up to a thousand a day and rising. Now at 15 deaths/million population. Early March I was hoping we would top out at around 100/m but that's now a pipe dream. We'll be lucky if we end up below 500/m and it will probably be several times that. The only good news is that Trump now seems dimly aware of the fact at least hundreds of thousands of people are going to die, and is preparing to give himself a big old attaboy when that happens.

The more this administration pats itself on the back without doing anything substantial, the worse the outlook for this country. Every day Fauci paints the rosiest picture his conscience will allow, Cheato gives lip service to that outlook and proceeds to do whatever he thinks best serves his self interest for the next day. Almost as if he thinks he can just change his story any time he wants, say "I didn't say that" when challenged, and his trumpsuckers will believe it.

Oh, right.... never mind.

Also more confirmed cases now than the second and third place combined.

Yes, I know, the US population is also quite a bit larger than Italy's and Spain's combined. I wonder how much longer that excuse will work.

 

[Jokodo]

By the way, New York recorded 505 new deaths yesterday, up from 372 the day before, a 35% increase. Per capita, that's still a lower rate than Lombardy (394 deaths - they seem to have plateaued - to 10 million people), but at this rate, New York will catch up with Lombardy even on a per capita basis tomorrow, if not today.

Of course, there's strong evidence that the deaths in Lombardy are massively underreported. We (I at least) don't know that this is also true in New York, but neither that it isn't.

 

[Elixir]

Derec is right to look at the per capita numbers; they are the best predictor of what's in store for the US. Italy is now at 218 deaths/million. Italy is being touted as the most reliable analog to what's happening in the US, so there is no reason to believe that the US is going to top out anywhere below where they end up. When we get to 218/m it will reflect some 72,000 deaths.
The good news is that the daily reported death tally in Italy, while still piling up, looks like it might be starting to level out. But there's still no knowing where it stops. And no great confidence that all the deaths related to COVFEFE-19 are being reported as such.

I strongly disagree that alarms don't need to be raised, or that raising alarms is a totally futile exercise. Florida just instituted a stay-at-home order, despite the fact that DeSantis is trumpsucking liar and a conservotard lowlife. Even the Republican troglodytes eventually bow to the pressure applied by the stench of death, just as Trump did - after more than two months of denial that will cost tens or hundreds of thousands of lives.

Trump is guilty of negligent homicide on a grand scale, dereliction of duty and treason. The death penalty would be too good for him.

 

[Elixir]

The social distancing is slowing the recovery. Not doing anything would mean quicker recovery but many would needlessly die because the health system would be overwhelmed several times over. Social distancing is pushing the peak back and by doing that making the peak less tall. Also, by delaying the peak, it buys time to procure more equipment, testing and perhaps even have better treatment options.

Right - it's a balancing act. Not doing anything WOULD mean a sooner peak and a more devastating one with a higher percentage of fatalities. It would probably not hasten the economic recovery, as that is somewhat tied to human resources. General societal immunity is going to come very slowly under social distancing; there will be hotspots flaring up for years to come unless an effective vaccine is developed and widely deployed.

 

[lpetrich]

Trump is guilty of negligent homicide on a grand scale, dereliction of duty and treason. The death penalty would be too good for him.

Dying of COVID-19? He would spend his last days coughing and finding it difficult to breathe. He should be continually reminded of all the others that his actions had made to suffer what he suffers, and be continuously reminded of what a traitorous uncompassionate narcissist he is.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

What's wrong with this picture? (It's representing Italy)

View attachment 26859

In 44% of cases that have had an outcome, the outcome was death. But only 5% of active cases are "critical".
What does this mean? That they have ramped up testing by a zillion percent? That there is a VERY long lag between diagnosis and an outcome? That a huge percentage of cases eventually become critical? Or are these stats totally meaningless due to limited testing?

Fatalities may close cases faster than recoveries/ discharges on average.

Bingo.

Furthermore, a lack of testing means they'll be slow to declare patients recovered.

 

[Elixir]

Today... US death rate down a little from yesterday... almost 30K new diagnoses...
It remains a grim picture for the US. The MAGA Meccas are spreading it like they think it's the Rapture.
Check the States with no lockdowns in place, and also DeSantis' religious exemption to the FL lockdown.
These morons really are trying to kill us all.

 

[seanie]

Derec is right to look at the per capita numbers; they are the best predictor of what's in store for the US.

That's a relief.

For a moment I was looking at the US death rates skyrocketing, and I made the mistake of thinking about lots of corpses piling up and the grieving relatives.

I'd forgotten about keeping the per capita rate down.

That will be a great comfort to the families.

 

[krypton iodine sulfur]

Derec is right to look at the per capita numbers; they are the best predictor of what's in store for the US.

That's a relief.

For a moment I was looking at the US death rates skyrocketing, and I made the mistake of thinking about lots of corpses piling up and the grieving relatives.

I'd forgotten about keeping the per capita rate down.

That will be a great comfort to the families.

Nothing written before is mutually exclusive with sympathy for those who lost loved ones or otherwise suffered as a result of covid-19. Nothing written is callous toward loss of life, neither does it imply those deaths mean less because, as a per capita figure, there have been fewer in the US than other nations.

 

[Elixir]

Derec is right to look at the per capita numbers; they are the best predictor of what's in store for the US.

That's a relief.

For a moment I was looking at the US death rates skyrocketing, and I made the mistake of thinking about lots of corpses piling up and the grieving relatives.

I'd forgotten about keeping the per capita rate down.

That will be a great comfort to the families.

Nothing written before is mutually exclusive with sympathy for those who lost loved ones or otherwise suffered as a result of covid-19. Nothing written is callous toward loss of life, neither does it imply those deaths mean less because, as a per capita figure, there have been fewer in the US than other nations.

If one goes to the site (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) and click on USA, it will give a breakdown per state. It doesn't provide per capita numbers for deaths or cases, but is nonetheless revealing.
If grieving relatives are your thing, you'll want to be in red states over the next few weeks. Especially places like Florida, where exemptions to stay at home orders are provided to religious fleecers who donate to the Trump campaign. The flock needs your sympathy.

 

[Jokodo]

Nothing written before is mutually exclusive with sympathy for those who lost loved ones or otherwise suffered as a result of covid-19. Nothing written is callous toward loss of life, neither does it imply those deaths mean less because, as a per capita figure, there have been fewer in the US than other nations.

If one goes to the site (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) and click on USA, it will give a breakdown per state. It doesn't provide per capita numbers for deaths or cases, but is nonetheless revealing.
If grieving relatives are your thing, you'll want to be in red states over the next few weeks. Especially places like Florida, where exemptions to stay at home orders are provided to religious fleecers who donate to the Trump campaign. The flock needs your sympathy.

680 new deaths today in New York state (19.5 million inhabitants). 351 in Lombardy (10 million inhabitants) - almost identical rates per million.
The accumulated deaths are far higher in Lombardy, but New York's number are still pointing up. Lombardy's have plateaued.

 

[Elixir]

Looks like we're back on the increase trail. Beating the world in more categories than ever, including the all-important daily death count. Moved up to 22 deaths per million, with a ten-fold increase virtually assured before it's over. (Italy is at 240/m)

 

[Derec]

Looks like we're back on the increase trail. Beating the world in more categories than ever, including the all-important daily death count.

Not per capita. We had 1,321 deaths yesterday, while Italy had the equivalent of 4,136 daily deaths and Spain had whopping 5,950. Now, one good thing about Italy is that their new cases are decreasing while the new deaths are more or less flat. So they are turning a corner, but are still at a very high level. Spain's new cases look flat, and the daily deaths are increasing, but slowly, so there is some cause for cautious optimism there too. But again, their levels are much higher than ours.

One more thing. More than half (680) of yesterday's deaths have been in NY. That state (and especially the city) is getting pummeled. New Jersey is second in raw numbers despite lower population (8.9 million) than some other states due to proximity to NYC.

Moved up to 22 deaths per million,

Note that Germany, praised for their low death rate, is not that far behind us at 15.

with a ten-fold increase virtually assured before it's over. (Italy is at 240/m)

Nothing is assured, but if overall death rate tops at only 250/million or less we need to count ourselves very lucky indeed.