Trump 2024?

[Keith&Co.]

• Don Trump Jr.,

Oh, please, please, please.
His entire platform would be, "I'll let Daddy back in his, i mean, THE White House."
But reporters would ask him about invading Wakanda, our trade imbalance with Klatch,

Michael Cohen has been saying that Trump won't run because he can't stand taking a chance that he might lose again. I don't think he will run because he's very lazy and he now realizes that being president is a very difficult job. My guess is that he will support some other horrible person, and have lots of rallies for that person so he can continue to be in the spotlight. That is assuming he's still alive and not in court fighting criminal charges. I wish the media would stop giving him so much attention.

No argument really, but I don’t think the difficulty of the job of President will weigh into the decision, since he never did it.

But he did get graded on it....

 

[Swammerdami]

(To add confusion, I think "decimal odds" has different meanings on opposite sides of the Atlantic. And Betfair may be using the term in yet another way!)

Betfair uses decimal odds, how much one gets back for each unit of bet. Fractional odds are the same, but expressed as fractions.
Probability = back-odds / (back-odds + 1) = 1 / (lay-odds + 1)

No. Consider the 'Back' and 'Lay' numbers displayed at Betfair's page for USA - Presidential Election - Winning Party.

Democratic Party 2.18 2.2
Republican Party 1.95 1.96
Any Other 26 30

Consider specifically the bet on Democratic Party.

Applying lpetrich's equation but substituting the displayed Back and Lay for his 'back-odds' and 'lay-odds' we would get
Probability = 2.18 / (2.18+1) = 1 / (2.2+1)
or Probability = 68.6% = 31.2%

Instead the implied percentage is simply the reciprocal of the displayed number:
Probability = 1 / 2.18 = 1 / 2.2 = 45.9% = 45.5%

The difference between these numbers (0.4%) is equivalent to an ordinary bid-ask spread.
(Beware: there are other costs associated with Betfair bets.)

 

[SLD]

I hope Trump runs in 2024.

It will be a gift for the democrats.

No. It won’t. You don’t understand the power this man has over his followers. They will come out in droves to vote for him like no other candidate. I’d say he has a very high probability of winning. Much higher than DeSantis Who just doesn’t inspire the same cult like devotion they have for Fuck Face von Clownstick.

It also won’t matter if he loses. He will still get himself declared the winner by Congress. This is the future scenario:

Trump barely loses a few key states. He immediately screams voter fraud. On January 6, 2025, the Republicans will control both the House and Senate. And everyone of them will be 100% loyal to him and what he wants. They will object to the certification of those votes, and both houses will reject them. The House will choose the President. 2021 was just a dry run. They didn’t have the votes then. But they will in 2024. Trump has made sure that anyone who opposes him in the Republican Party will face such severe consequences that they will be too afraid to vote against his wishes.

The only thing that can stop them is the death of Donald Trump. No other Republican has the same sway to pull this off.

this will happen, too. Mark my words. The question becomes what will America do when this happens?

 

[TLK Valentine]

From Faux Noise:

EXCLUSIVE: Former President Trump, teasing his plans for 2024, told Fox News that the country is "getting to a point where we really have no choice" but for him to run for president again.
In an exclusive interview with Fox News Digital, the former president was asked about his plans for a potential White House bid in 2024.

Not so much the country is getting to that point, but the office might be the only thing that can keep him out of prison...

 

[Swammerdami]

I hope Trump runs in 2024.

It will be a gift for the democrats.

No. It won’t. You don’t understand the power this man has over his followers. They will come out in droves to vote for him like no other candidate. I’d say he has a very high probability of winning. Much higher than DeSantis Who just doesn’t inspire the same cult like devotion they have for Fuck Face von Clownstick.

It also won’t matter if he loses. He will still get himself declared the winner by Congress. ...
this will happen, too. Mark my words. The question becomes what will America do when this happens?

Recall that Trump ran in 2016 as a publicity stunt, not expecting to win the nomination. When he won the Presidency in November, some of his close family members were shocked and disappointed. But having survived a term without impeachment or starting a war, Trump and his followers will have more confidence in him than ever.

Trump would be talking about a 2024 run now whether his intention was serious or not: it's the way to retain power and keep moolah flowing in from stupid saps. For the same reason he will actually run in 2024 if he's competent to pull it off. But he'll be 78 and we can hope that mental senility or incontinence will preclude a serious run. Due to various gerrymanderings and trickery there's a fair chance he will prevail if he does run. It's disheartening to imagine the American public as being so very stupid, but that's our reality.

Trump's chance of victory will be greater than the other klutzes throwing their hats in the ring: Pence, DeSantis, Cruz, Rubio. Just to type these laughable names reminds us what a god-forsaken Party QOPAnon has become.

There is one exception: Nikki Haley is the one GOPster that could win without cheating. In a ♀ vs ♀ race with Harris, Kamala wouldn't have a chance.

 

[SLD]

Biology is the only thing that can stop Trump. Preferably in the form of a massive stroke that leaves him incoherent.

. . .

Wait. That may not work.

 

[ZiprHead]

^^^ How would we be able to tell the difference?

 

[Patooka]

^^^ How would we be able to tell the difference?

That's easy. He loses the ability to say "Person. Man. Woman. Camera. TV". That's when you know his very, very large a-brain is completely fucked.

 

[SLD]

^^^ How would we be able to tell the difference?

Yup. That’s why I said it wouldn’t work! Covfefe! Man the airports! Use bleach! In fact, I wonder if that explains things.

 

[Swammerdami]

Biology is the only thing that can stop Trump. Preferably in the form of a massive stroke that leaves him incoherent.

. . .

Wait. That may not work.

Are you insulting this great man?


Lincoln had his Gettysburg Address; FDR said we have nothing to fear but fear itself. JFK asked not what your country could do for you. And Donald J. Trump had his moment of glory as an off-the-cuff orator giving his views on the Iran Question:

Look, having nuclear my uncle was a great professor and scientist and engineer, Dr. John Trump at MIT; good genes, very good genes, okay, very smart, the Wharton School of Finance, very good, very smart you know, if you're a conservative Republican, if I were a liberal, if, like, okay, if I ran as a liberal Democrat, they would say I'm one of the smartest people anywhere in the world it's true! but when you're a conservative Republican they try oh, do they do a number that's why I always start off: Went to Wharton, was a good student, went there, went there, did this, built a fort. you know I have to give my like credentials all the time, because we're a little disadvantaged but you look at the nuclear deal, the thing that really bothers me it would have been so easy, and it's not as important as these lives are (nuclear is powerful; my uncle explained that to me many, many years ago, the power and that was 35 years ago; he would explain the power of what's going to happen and he was right who would have thought?), but when you look at what's going on with the four prisoners now it used to be three, now it's four but when it was three and even now, I would have said it's all in the messenger; fellas, and it is fellas because, you know, they don't, they haven't figured that the women are smarter right now than the men, so, you know, it's gonna take them about another 150 years but the Persians are great negotiators, the Iranians are great negotiators, so, and they, they just killed, they just killed us.

The only YouTube I turned up with this speech is a John Oliver show with a 3rd party reading the words in a monotone. I want to hear the Great Man himself deliver this. Help?

 

[Patooka]

Biology is the only thing that can stop Trump. Preferably in the form of a massive stroke that leaves him incoherent.

. . .

Wait. That may not work.

Are you insulting this great man?


Lincoln had his Gettysburg Address; FDR said we have nothing to fear but fear itself. JFK asked not what your country could do for you. And Donald J. Trump had his moment of glory as an off-the-cuff orator giving his views on the Iran Question:

Look, having nuclear my uncle was a great professor and scientist and engineer, Dr. John Trump at MIT; good genes, very good genes, okay, very smart, the Wharton School of Finance, very good, very smart you know, if you're a conservative Republican, if I were a liberal, if, like, okay, if I ran as a liberal Democrat, they would say I'm one of the smartest people anywhere in the world it's true! but when you're a conservative Republican they try oh, do they do a number that's why I always start off: Went to Wharton, was a good student, went there, went there, did this, built a fort. you know I have to give my like credentials all the time, because we're a little disadvantaged but you look at the nuclear deal, the thing that really bothers me it would have been so easy, and it's not as important as these lives are (nuclear is powerful; my uncle explained that to me many, many years ago, the power and that was 35 years ago; he would explain the power of what's going to happen and he was right who would have thought?), but when you look at what's going on with the four prisoners now it used to be three, now it's four but when it was three and even now, I would have said it's all in the messenger; fellas, and it is fellas because, you know, they don't, they haven't figured that the women are smarter right now than the men, so, you know, it's gonna take them about another 150 years but the Persians are great negotiators, the Iranians are great negotiators, so, and they, they just killed, they just killed us.

The only YouTube I turned up with this speech is a John Oliver show with a 3rd party reading the words in a monotone. I want to hear the Great Man himself deliver this. Help?

Donald Trump's 'Nuclear' Speech

A rambling, jumbled portion of a July 2016 Donald Trump speech has amused and stunned social media users.

www.snopes.com

 

[Shadowy Man]

^^^ How would we be able to tell the difference?

That's easy. He loses the ability to say "Person. Man. Woman. Camera. TV". That's when you know his very, very large a-brain is completely fucked.

I’m guessing the speech therapy he would receive could actually improve his articulation.

 

[Elixir]

^^^ How would we be able to tell the difference?

That's easy. He loses the ability to say "Person. Man. Woman. Camera. TV". That's when you know his very, very large a-brain is completely fucked.

You reversed woman and man. You better go get checked out!

 

[Patooka]

^^^ How would we be able to tell the difference?

That's easy. He loses the ability to say "Person. Man. Woman. Camera. TV". That's when you know his very, very large a-brain is completely fucked.

You reversed woman and man. You better go get checked out!

I knew there was a reason why I shouldn't be President.

 

[lpetrich]

Trump 'seriously thinking about 2024' -- but there's something that could scare him away from running - Raw Story - Celebrating 17 Years of Independent Journalism - "Donald Trump is sending plenty of signals that he intends to run for re-election in 2024, according to associates, but only if he believes he would win."

 2024 United States presidential election - Trump is still the favorite among Republicans, with other possibilities far behind and doing worse and worse. The only exception is FL Gov Ron DeSantis. Though also far behind, he has been doing better and better.

In Trumpless polls, RDS is also doing better and better, and he surpasses the next two, fmr VP Mike Pence and Trump son Don Jr. Then Ted Cruz, Nikki Haley, Mitt Romney, and Marco Rubio.

More evidence that RDS is gaining in popularity - Trump is now squabbling with him.

Who Is King of Florida? Tensions Rise Between Trump and Ron DeSantis - The New York Times - "A spat over Covid has exposed friction between the former president and a rising G.O.P. governor unwilling to curb his ambitions."

 

[Thomas II]

Skip to 2:00

The issue of small businesses closing is a huge problem. I know of a place that had been continually active for the last 150 years...and now it's closed, mainly for delivery issues , inflation, unavailable drivers, all Covid Pandemic related...

 

[RVonse]

I love it when right-wingers sound like anarchists.

She quit the Democratic party to join up with Bernie and you are calling her a right winger now?? Hmm

 

[RVonse]

 2024 United States presidential election

.

Following is fashioned from lpetrich's posts.

• Trump is still the favorite among Republicans. In his absence, however,
• Ron DeSantis and
• Mike Pence are neck-and-neck as the favorites. Then
• Don Trump Jr., then
• Ted Cruz, then various others, like
• Nikki Haley,
• Marco Rubio, and
• Mitt Romney.
• ...(*) Here's an odd one: Tulsi Gabbard. In 2016, she resigned from the Democratic National Committee to support Bernie Sander

What a List. I've taken the liberty of painting the "candidates" different colors.
I use Red to denote typical contemptible not-very-bright right-wingers.
Yellowish orange is reserved for those unusually foul and disgusting, even among the Red group
Romney who tried to live up to his reputation as the Republican willing to follow GOP ideals like Nixon and Reagan but is now just another card-carrying Trumpist.. (Other GOPsters have abandoned Reagan for Alex Jones, Q, or that guy in the Viking suit desecrating Pelosi's office.
And only in post-rational America would Tulsi Gabbard, lurching from Sanders to Sean Hannity or whoever-the-hell, be thought of as a serious candidate .
I've left Ms. Haley in the default font color. She is surely the least disgusting of any shown. And — I write this in an especially small font so the enemy doesn't see it — would probably be the QOPster with the best electoral chance.

I hope Trump runs in 2024.

It will be a gift for the democrats.

Probably. But there will be millions still saying "I know he's too old now to grab pu*sy but you gotta love that locker talk!"

Clearly both party's suck. Because if either party actually represented people you would not see such a dichotomy of views to be present in order to be noticed .

 

[Trausti]

Remember what they took from us.

 

[lpetrich]

I love it when right-wingers sound like anarchists.

She quit the Democratic party to join up with Bernie and you are calling her a right winger now?? Hmm

Tulsi Gabbard? If she agrees with right-wingers on many issues then she deserves to be called a right-winger. I'd posted on her doing just that.

Like admiring Glenn Youngkin's victory in Virginia. That's not a typical left-wing stance. A more typical one would be AOC's, that that victory was a "bummer".