Trump VS COVID-19 Threat

[Elixir]

All in all, it seems like a reasonable approach to balancing the health impact and the economic impact.

...except that overall we now have the highest number of critical cases ever, the highest number of active cases ever and no travel restrictions in place between extant and potential "hot spots". Other than that... yeah. But you have to wonder why now, exp considering that not one single state indulging in these "soft re-opens" has met even the Whitehouse guidelines (14 days decreasing cases) let alone evidence any control whatsoever over the spread of the virus. So why are they doing it? I'm pretty sure this is why, especially considering the predominance of Republican Governors conducting these charades:

I can't speak for other states, but I'm hoping that most of them are also taking reasonable approaches.

Yeah, it would be nice if they were a whole lot more reasonable.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I was checking out the NY Times and their charts on each state.

18 states have increasing daily new cases trends (Arizona, California, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, New Mexico, North Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia, and Wyoming). Another 15 have plateau'd, some near the peak of the charts. Only four states, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Vermont actually show a near dissipation of daily cases.

Seems insane that this is when some states want to open up.

There's more to it than that. It's not really a "open everything woo-hoo" or "stay closed and don't leave your house or else".

For Arizona, for example... The cases have been close to level for a few weeks, with some daily variations... but the testing also increased. Hospitalizations have been decreasing on average over the past few weeks. Arizona hasn't hit capacity for beds, and already has plans in place for bed overflow to non-hospital settings if needed. They haven't even hit a point of needing to move some non-COVID cases out of hospitals into alternative care settings like long-term nursing. And we've been pretty steady at about 20% ventilator capacity. All in all, Arizona is positioned to handle a larger case load than we've experienced so far.

That's great! So you'll only get into trouble in two or three weeks.

And the loosening of the lockdown is just that - a loosening. It's planned to be a staged process, moving through several phases.

Depending on the state.

The current recommendation from the governor is that people who are able to work from home should continue to do so indefinitely, and that we'll be phasing in businesses that can't be operated remotely, with limitation son the number of customers allowed to be on site at one time, and additional requirements for safety.

Yes, no school, working from home will help. Of course, any other things that open up with people in close proximity will increase the rate of case growth.

All in all, it seems like a reasonable approach to balancing the health impact and the economic impact.

So we have:
1) People open up the stores and restaurants and people don't show up. Disease doesn't spread as fast. Companies lose lots of money.
2) People open up and only a manageable number of people show up. Disease spreads, we'll need to shutdown again eventually. Companies lose some money.
3) People open up and everyone shows up. Disease spreads real quick. Capitalism... god bless it! .. aww fuck, need to shutdown again! But this time, it is June or July we have to shut down again.

I can't speak for other states, but I'm hoping that most of them are also taking reasonable approaches.

Ohio sounds good. But you get one bloom somewhere, and then it catches. Ohio had 351 confirmed cases (104 new cases that day) when the Stay at Home order was announced. That number quintupled in one week. Covid-19 doesn't give you a head notice. It is already bloomed before you can act.

FYI, we sit at 17,300 today. Closed the doors at 351.

 

[Emily Lake]

1) People open up the stores and restaurants and people don't show up. Disease doesn't spread as fast. Companies lose lots of money.
2) People open up and only a manageable number of people show up. Disease spreads, we'll need to shutdown again eventually. Companies lose some money.
3) People open up and everyone shows up. Disease spreads real quick. Capitalism... god bless it! .. aww fuck, need to shutdown again! But this time, it is June or July we have to shut down again.

I'm curious, Jimmy, are you able to work from home? Have you lost income?

As a follow-up to that, what do you think a good solution is? Do all states need to wait until the worst ones are under control? Is it reasonable for some to take different approaches, dependent on their experience or should all states have to have the exact same approach?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

1) People open up the stores and restaurants and people don't show up. Disease doesn't spread as fast. Companies lose lots of money.
2) People open up and only a manageable number of people show up. Disease spreads, we'll need to shutdown again eventually. Companies lose some money.
3) People open up and everyone shows up. Disease spreads real quick. Capitalism... god bless it! .. aww fuck, need to shutdown again! But this time, it is June or July we have to shut down again.

I'm curious, Jimmy, are you able to work from home? Have you lost income?

I'm essential. I'm not certain why anyone would need to ask. So yeah, we are still working, from home and in the field when necessary.

As a follow-up to that, what do you think a good solution is?

Not pretending that economic stresses matter to the virus and that the Government needs to address the economic and sociological problems before we are stuck inside all fucking summer because a bunch of fucking assholes didn't understand a strand of RNA protected by a protein shell doesn't care about the unemployment rate! The whole point of shutting down was to address the problem, not give it a go until a bunch of ignorant fucks thought they had "had enough" of a shut down.

Do all states need to wait until the worst ones are under control?

Four states appear quite ready to open. The remainder... like I said, 1 in 3 have a growing daily trend. You definitely aren't supposed to reopen when it is getting worse.

Is it reasonable for some to take different approaches, dependent on their experience or should all states have to have the exact same approach?

I think one plan is a good plan, unless there is evidence that the virus has an ability to understand borders. However, how a plan gets enacted depends on the situations in each individual state, potentially taking into account population density disparities. Sadly, reopening the economies in Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, and Vermont (in the summer), isn't going to help the US economy too much. And how long before cases in the city spread in the suburbs, then into the rural areas?

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I was checking out the NY Times and their charts on each state.

18 states have increasing daily new cases trends (Arizona, California, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, New Mexico, North Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia, and Wyoming). Another 15 have plateau'd, some near the peak of the charts. Only four states, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Vermont actually show a near dissipation of daily cases.

Seems insane that this is when some states want to open up.

There's more to it than that. It's not really a "open everything woo-hoo" or "stay closed and don't leave your house or else".

For Arizona, for example... The cases have been close to level for a few weeks, with some daily variations, and a recent spike when new VA info got added... but the testing also increased. Hospitalizations have been decreasing on average over the past few weeks. Arizona hasn't hit capacity for beds, and already has plans in place for bed overflow to non-hospital settings if needed. They haven't even hit a point of needing to move some non-COVID cases out of hospitals into alternative care settings like long-term nursing. And we've been pretty steady at about 20% ventilator capacity. All in all, Arizona is positioned to handle a larger case load than we've experienced so far.

And the loosening of the lockdown is just that - a loosening. It's planned to be a staged process, moving through several phases. The current recommendation from the governor is that people who are able to work from home should continue to do so indefinitely, and that we'll be phasing in businesses that can't be operated remotely, with limitation son the number of customers allowed to be on site at one time, and additional requirements for safety.

All in all, it seems like a reasonable approach to balancing the health impact and the economic impact.

I can't speak for other states, but I'm hoping that most of them are also taking reasonable approaches.

This is my take as well.

 

[lpetrich]

Trump says coronavirus will be 'eradicated' as US death toll passes 60,000 - YouTube - lots of bragging.

Dozens of bodies found in U-Haul trucks outside NYC funeral home, producing "overwhelming" stench - CBS News

Hundreds of protesters, some carrying guns in the state Capitol, demonstrate against Michigan's emergency measures - "Protesters held signs, waved American flags and even carried firearms as lawmakers debated extending Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s state of emergency."

Rashida Tlaib on Twitter: "Black people get executed by police for just existing, while white people dressed like militia members carrying assault weapons are allowed to threaten State Legislators and staff.
Our gun laws are so broken." / Twitter
noting
Rod Meloni on Twitter: "Protest moves inside Michigan Capitol. Crowd attempts to get onto Hoise floor. Lots of Michigan State Police and House sergeants at arms blocking door. https://t.co/4FNQpimP4W" / Twitter

mriveted on Twitter: "@RodMeloni Can you imagine if this crowd, including those bearing GUNS, were Black? Talk about white supremacy and privilege.
Black men can’t even feel safe driving in their cars unarmed or walking across a courtyard unarmed with skittles.
I hope each of these people contract COVID19." / Twitter

I think that we have a lot of very willing volunteers for trials of proposed COVID-19 vaccines.

VICE TV on Twitter: "“Republicans are the ones who fought for a $4T corporate slush fund bail out. Republicans are the ones that are fighting against mass testing capacity in the United States. [...] But we don’t want to say those things because we want to be bipartisan. That ship has sailed.” - @AOC https://t.co/2j9bHZVmCp" / Twitter
SHELTER IN PLACE: Tonight, 10p

 

[Elixir]

I can't speak for other states, but I'm hoping that most of them are also taking reasonable approaches.

Reading about the durability of the COVID-19 virus, it sounds like AZ (and CO, NM) might benefit from the summer heat because of the low humidity. Apparently the virus (or its lipid shell) is more persistent in humid heat and dryer cold.
So a reasonable approach that works in one area might not work in another. Control of the spread is only as good as its weakest point. I'll feel better about it once more is known about antibodies, re-infection rates etc..

 

[lpetrich]

I can't speak for other states, but I'm hoping that most of them are also taking reasonable approaches.

Reading about the durability of the COVID-19 virus, it sounds like AZ (and CO, NM) might benefit from the summer heat because of the low humidity. Apparently the virus (or its lipid shell) is more persistent in humid heat and dryer cold.
So a reasonable approach that works in one area might not work in another. Control of the spread is only as good as its weakest point. I'll feel better about it once more is known about antibodies, re-infection rates etc..

Being dried out seems like a likely limiter for the virus's survival outside its hosts. So hot and dry would be especially bad for it.

 

[lpetrich]

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez On NY's Decision To Cancel Presidential Primary, COVID-19 Response & Tests - YouTube - AOC said that it was a dangerous precedent to cancel that primary election, because Trump might then cancel the main election.

AOC says that we need more testing and contact tracing, and that Congress has had to fight Trump on aid for testing and hospitals. She also notes how successful South Korea has been and how the Trump Admin could have gotten preparations started two months earlier. The Trumpies and the Republicans sometimes seem like they have magical thinking, like not letting a cruise ship dock because doing so would bump up the statistics.

She noted that in the early days of the pandemic, a lot of people became social democrats, wanting Universal Basic Income and universal healthcare. But when it became evident that black and Hispanic people were harder-hit by it than white people, one started getting a lot of tut-tutting about personal responsibility. Even though nobody complains about a lack of personal responsibility by old people, for instance.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "Think about how harshly #BlackLivesMatter & #AbolishICE activists were debased, called rioters, & treated as a threat to society.
Now watch & examine how this MAGA-armed rushing of a state legislature is treated.
This is for those who still think racial privilege is a fantasy. https://t.co/nEufuBRFKo" / Twitter

 

[ronburgundy]

Do all states need to wait until the worst ones are under control? Is it reasonable for some to take different approaches, dependent on their experience or should all states have to have the exact same approach?

The problem with a state by state or even more regional approach (like opening up more rural / less population areas first) is that complete lack of any control over people's movements from the still closed hot-spot states and cities to the opened areas and states.

How many New Yorkers and Chicagoans are gonna head to AZ and Florida for a couple weeks and bring the virus with them and spread on the plane?

I agree that we cannot just pretend that economic impacts don't matter or frame it as simply $ vs lives. But we have to acknowledge the 100% certainty that any degree of of reopening right now will increase cases and deaths, and in any area attractive to tourists will likely spike this disease even more.

 

[Emily Lake]

Not pretending that economic stresses matter to the virus and that the Government needs to address the economic and sociological problems before we are stuck inside all fucking summer because a bunch of fucking assholes didn't understand a strand of RNA protected by a protein shell doesn't care about the unemployment rate!

Do you actually think anyone has suggested that the virus cares about unemployment? People care about both unemployment and the virus. People care about getting sick and maybe dying... but also care about losing their income and maybe their house and ending up homeless and destitute. It's a short-term risk and danger trying to balance against a long-term risk and danger. And all of it, both sides of that, are about people.

You aren't at risk of losing your job, neither am I. But I've got family who have lost their income, and I've got family and friends worried about how they're going to pay their bills and their rent and pay for food. And worried about whether or not they're going to be able to find a job when this is done.

It's not a one-dimensional problem.

Do all states need to wait until the worst ones are under control?

Four states appear quite ready to open. The remainder... like I said, 1 in 3 have a growing daily trend. You definitely aren't supposed to reopen when it is getting worse.

Is it reasonable for some to take different approaches, dependent on their experience or should all states have to have the exact same approach?

I think one plan is a good plan, unless there is evidence that the virus has an ability to understand borders. However, how a plan gets enacted depends on the situations in each individual state, potentially taking into account population density disparities. Sadly, reopening the economies in Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, and Vermont (in the summer), isn't going to help the US economy too much. And how long before cases in the city spread in the suburbs, then into the rural areas?

I'm glad to see that you at least consider population density as a factor that might vary from place to place. I'd also suggest consideration for geographical and climate differences. Perhaps even some thought to prevailing industry and the kind of work that gets done in that region.

Opening up HI, ID, MT, and VT may not do a lot of the entire US economy... but it might make a big difference to the economies in those states, and the ability of people in those states to keep their homes and feed their families.

 

[Elixir]

I'm glad to see that you at least consider population density as a factor that might vary from place to place. I'd also suggest consideration for geographical and climate differences.

Exactly. That's a lot of factors to juggle and there could be thousands of discrete or even unique sets of conditions. That's why we need the Fed to support local governments and not abdicate all responsibility, deferring everything to the States. Having declared a National Emergency it is the Administration's job to actually manage the response - including supply logistics, production etc. As usual, the TCFA (Trump Crime Family Administration) sees their only "real" job as looting the US Treasury on behalf of TCFA donors.

 

[lpetrich]

Fact check: Hilton CEO shatters Trump's testing conspiracy theory while sitting beside him - CNNPolitics

At a White House meeting with corporate executives on Wednesday, President Donald Trump repeated his conspiratorial suggestion that the media is talking about a lack of coronavirus testing to try to damage him politically.

And then, 31 minutes later, the CEO sitting beside Trump made clear that his claim was nonsense.

Christopher Nassetta, president and CEO of the Hilton hotel company, did not confront Trump explicitly. But Nassetta communicated that more testing is essential to his company's future -- thus shattering the President's absurd assertion that critical questions about the pace of testing are a mere "media trap."

What a big baby.

Trump erupts at campaign manager Brad Parscale as reelection stress overflows - CNNPolitics

As he huddled with advisers on Friday evening, President Donald Trump was still fuming over his sliding poll numbers and the onslaught of criticism he was facing for suggesting a day earlier that ingesting disinfectant might prove effective against coronavirus.
Within moments, the President was shouting -- not at the aides in the room, but into the phone -- at his campaign manager Brad Parscale, three people familiar with the matter told CNN. Shifting the blame away from himself, Trump berated Parscale for a recent spate of damaging poll numbers, even at one point threatening to sue Parscale. It's not clear how serious the President's threat of a lawsuit was.

Trump seems unwilling to accept responsibility for his actions.

Trump shows his cards on environmental protections — or a lack thereof | TheHill

The last month has been an extraordinary one not just because of the COVID-19 crisis but because the Trump administration has now shown all its cards in its hypocritical crackdown on environmental protection. In three important proceedings, the Environmental Protection Agency has revealed unequivocally that it will employ any methodology at all to justify rolling back environmental regulations, even if the effect could be harmful and put lives at risk. It has brazenly used opposite arguments in different proceedings, invoking whichever side happens to help it achieve its goals, without even acknowledging or explaining its contradictory approaches.

The Memo: The surprising popularity of the Great Lockdown | TheHill

Ocasio-Cortez blasts New York elections board for canceling presidential primary | TheHill

 

[James Brown]

Do Mongols care about turnip yields?

 

[crazyfingers]

Why the Trump Ploy Stopped Working

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/...l?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

Interesting poll data showing a lot of unity in the US on lockdown, etc. Hopefully this is one of the C19 stories that the NYT has outside the paywall.

 

[ZiprHead]

Why the Trump Ploy Stopped Working

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/...l?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

Interesting poll data showing a lot of unity in the US on lockdown, etc. Hopefully this is one of the C19 stories that the NYT has outside the paywall.

Just to note that I signed up for the free NYT email newsletter which also gives me access online.

 

[lpetrich]

Pelosi floats almost $1T for states in next relief package | TheHill

That figure, Pelosi said, would likely be the single largest line-item of the Democrats' next emergency package, known as CARES 2, which is also expected to include hundreds of billions of dollars more to help workers, businesses and families weather the crisis.

"We're not going to be able to cover all of it, but to the extent that we can keep the states and localities sustainable, that's our goal," Pelosi told reporters in the basement of the near-deserted Capitol.

...
It also foreshadows a fierce fight with Republicans in the Senate, where GOP leaders had rejected any new funding for state and local governments in the last "interim" coronavirus bill, enacted last week, and are wary that any new help for states going forward would simply bail out governors for fiscal mismanagement preceding the health crisis.

Let's see if NP is willing to be much more than a whimpering coward.

 

[lpetrich]

Connecticut governor unveils four-stage plan to reopen state's economy | TheHill

Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont (D) announced a four-stage plan to reopen the state’s economy Thursday, as New York's tri-state area is beginning to see some progress in overall coronavirus numbers.

Lamont signed a stay-at-home order over a month ago, shuttering nonessential businesses and other services such as nonprofits.

The plan’s first stage allows for the reopening of retailers, offices, hair salons, outdoor restaurants and outdoor recreation facilities by May 20.

“If you want to make sure that this pandemic stays under control, we want to do everything we can to make sure there are no flare-ups around the region,” Lamont told reporters Thursday.

Nice to see that cautious reopening.

Lamont Details Criteria to Open Some Businesses on May 20 – NBC Connecticut
Governor Lamont's April 30, 2020 4:00PM Coronavirus Update - YouTube
Criteria for reopening:

• 14-day decline of hospitalizations
• Increased testing available
• Sufficient contact tracing capacity
• Protect high-risk populations
• Adequate healthcare capacity
• Adequate supply of PPE
• Appropriate physical distancing regulations.

Currently open:

• Manufacturing
• Essential retail
• Real Estate
• Utilities
• Construction
• Childcare
• Hospitals

Phase 1:

• Restaurants (outdoor only - no bar areas)
• Remaining retail
• Offices (continue work from home where possible)
• Personal services (hair & nail only)
• Museums, Zoos (outdoor only)
• Additional outdoor recreation (e.g., camping, mountain biking)
• University research programs

 

[lpetrich]

Coronavirus outbreak spreading farther into rural America | TheHill

The coronavirus that has infected more than a million Americans is increasingly moving into rural areas in search of new victims, as nearly one-third of the nation’s counties experienced widespread transmission over the last week.

...
Hotspots have emerged in places like Kansas, Michigan, Illinois and Indiana, while cases have increased in southern states like Virginia, Florida and Texas.

...
Epidemiologists worry that significant spread into rural areas will bring with it challenges that only the hardest-hit metropolitan areas faced. Those rural areas have older populations with higher instances of underlying conditions that lead to worse health outcomes for those who contract the coronavirus, and their health systems have less capacity to deal with a substantial surge.

Rural residents are also likely to suffer higher rates of poverty, and they are less likely to have health insurance or guaranteed access to quality care

Will Republicans start to take it more seriously? Especially at the sight of honkies suffering and dying from it.

 

[Half-Life]

Will Republicans start to take it more seriously? Especially at the sight of honkies suffering and dying from it.

Racist. This is no different from using the n word for black people.

It was unironically used as a racist slur by blacks for whites. Very hypocritical: "Stop racism!....except against whites!"

Just very weird to us how you guys can call poor whites uneducated idiots but poor blacks you do not call uneducated idiots.