Trump Vs Iran

[crazyfingers]

I can't watch Orangey on TV. Has he blamed Biden yet, for the necessity of attacking Iran?

Like blaming Biden for the nuclear treaty with Iran that Trump pulled out of in 2018?

What was in the Iran nuclear deal and why did Trump withdraw the US from it?

Known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, the deal followed two years of negotiations during the Obama administration.

abcnews.go.com

 

[southernhybrid]

What information, if any, does Trump have that US Intelligence does not? Netanyahu says so?

Yup.

The US has become a puppet of Israel. It's a bizarre reversal of normal power relationships between large wealthy nations and small less wealthy nations; But here we are.

You mean Trump has become a puppet of Israel. Oh wait. I thought he was a puppet of Putin's. Who's puppet is he really? Or is it that the Republicans are just the felon's puppets?

I did just read that it's very unlikely that Russia will help Iran, especially since Russia has so many resources tied up in fighting Ukraine. This is all some scary shit.

 

[southernhybrid]

I'm not gifting the linked article as I'm just about out of my articles to share, but I have to share a few lines from it as more evidence of Trump's insanity, as if we didn't know!

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/us/politics/trump-iran-maga-rift-isolationists-hawks.html

“Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated,” he told the world in a brief news conference from the White House. “Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier.”

It was a remarkable about-face for someone who as a candidate mercilessly criticized the Bush administration over the Iraq war, called for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan and once pledged to end the “era of endless wars.” But even as he announced the military operation, he appeared to be rapidly trying to get himself back to the middle by insisting that the strike was a one-off and that he continues to seek peace.

There is no evidence that the facilities have been totally obliterated and in fact, there is some possibility that Iran has other facilities that are not known to the US.

Mr. Trump described the bombing campaign as “massive” but also said it was limited, referring to the mission as “precision strikes.”

it's massive but limited! What the fuck does that even mean?

Charlie Kirk, the influential conservative activist who was among those warning the president against pursuing a war to bring about a change of government, wrote: “Iran gave President Trump no choice. For a decade he has been adamant that Iran will never get a nuclear weapon. Iran decided to forego diplomacy in pursuit of a bomb.”

But Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Quincy Institute, which advocates U.S. military restraint, said Mr. Trump risked alienating his most ardent backers who support his “America First” agenda of focusing on domestic issues instead of spending money overseas.

“There isn’t two sides of the base. There is a Washington side of the base and there is the rest of the country,” Mr. Parsi said of the debate over involvement in Iran. “Many of them may fall in line temporarily, out of loyalty, out of patriotism. But if the war doesn’t go well, I think you will see a backlash happening much, much sooner, much sooner than what you saw in 2003” when the United States invaded Iraq.

Will the cult finally get their faces out of Trump's ass if this isn't over quickly?

Some Republicans have even joined forces with Democrats to try to rein in Mr. Trump, asserting that only Congress can declare war and that the president should not carry out military actions in foreign lands without its approval.

Representative Thomas Massie, Republican of Kentucky, and Representative Ro Khanna, Democrat of California, have introduced a bipartisan War Powers Resolution to try to prohibit “United States Armed Forces from unauthorized hostilities in the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

The resolution can be called up for debate and a floor vote after 15 calendar days without action in committee.

On Sunday afternoon, Mr. Trump lashed out at Republicans who were not backing him, and went after Mr. Massie with particularly harsh language.

“Congressman Thomas Massie of Kentucky is not MAGA, even though he likes to say he is,” the president wrote on social media. “Actually, MAGA doesn’t want him, doesn’t know him, and doesn’t respect him. He called Mr. Massie a “lightweight” who is “against what was so brilliantly achieved last night in Iran,” and said he would campaign for a different Republican to replace Mr. Massie in next year’s primary.

Jon Hoffman, a research fellow at the libertarian-leaning Cato Institute, warned of longer-term consequences from attacking Iran.

How dare he criticize the "king". At least one Republican seems to care more about the country than the idiot leading it. Will he back down like the others did, who recently spoke out against getting involved in an attack on Iran? Even MTG criticized Trump the other day but she softened her attack today, by switching topic to Biden not protecting the border.

“So this is not going to be some long, drawn-out thing,” Mr. Vance added.

The president also made clear he had no regrets.

“There will be either peace or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days,” he said. “Remember, there are many targets left.”

So which is it Vance? It won't be some long drawn out thing until it is? The VP is as stupid as dear leader.

 

[Derec]

Tgis fucker know oil embargoes are a thing?

Oil embargoes by whom? We already do not buy from Iran. Saudis and other Gulf Arabs don't like Iran either, except Qatar (and they are more of a natural gas power).

 

[Derec]

Embargoes? Iran don't need no embargoes.

No badges either, presumably.

They just need to release a bunch of cheap floating mines into the straits of Hormuz, and the tanker captains will refuse to pass through whether there's an embargo or not.

That may be effective for a short period of time, but it will escalate the situation greatly.
Also, other countries would be affected far more than US by this.

The world not only stops getting oil from Iran, but also most of the oil from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE.
What's the US gonna do in retaliation? Bomb Iran?

Sink their navy for starters. We could also hit all the surface-to-ship missile sites on shore.

Sure, the US Navy has minesweepers (or as they are called in Iran, "targets"); But mines are cheap, so if the US sweep them, Iran can just put them back.

Not easy to do when your navy is at the bottom of the Persian Gulf of America 2 Electric Boogaloo.

 

[pood]

Embargoes? Iran don't need no embargoes.

No badges either, presumably.

They just need to release a bunch of cheap floating mines into the straits of Hormuz, and the tanker captains will refuse to pass through whether there's an embargo or not.

That may be effective for a short period of time, but it will escalate the situation greatly.
Also, other countries would be affected far more than US by this.

The world not only stops getting oil from Iran, but also most of the oil from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE.
What's the US gonna do in retaliation? Bomb Iran?

Sink their navy for starters. We could also hit all the surface-to-ship missile sites on shore.

Sure, the US Navy has minesweepers (or as they are called in Iran, "targets"); But mines are cheap, so if the US sweep them, Iran can just put them back.

Not easy to do when your navy is at the bottom of the Persian Gulf of America 2 Electric Boogaloo.

So the Persian Gulf is now also the Gulf of America?

Dear Derec, babbling away as usual.

 

[Derec]

I've often wondered why there isn't a big pipeline to the Arabian Sea. Insufficient capacity even if built perhaps?

A pipeline of sufficient capacity would be very expensive to build, and Oman would take their cut too. Since you have to put it on the tankers anyway, shorter pipelines to the Gulf are far cheaper. Especially since most of Saudi il and gas fields are concentrated in the same area close to or under the Gulf.

 

[Derec]

So the Persian Gulf is now also the Gulf of America?

Dear Derec, babbling away as usual.

It was a joke.

 

[TV and credit cards]

B-2 Strikes On Iran: What We Know About Operation Midnight Hammer (Updated)
Maxar satellite photos available. Damage to the underground facility will probably be better known by activity around the site in the coming months.

Before


After


Topography definitely altered.

Holes

 

[Derec]

So US intelligence services believe that Iran was not working on a bomb.

[citation needed]
We know Iran enriched uranium to 60%, which is 20x as much as needed for nuclear power reactors.
Iran accelerates production of near weapons-grade uranium, IAEA says, as tensions with US ratchet up
So they are definitely working on a bomb. The only uncertainty is: how close are they?

Trump says they were a few weeks away from having a bomb. He says that Gabbard, his Director of National Intelligence, is wrong and a day later she changes her story. Based on what?

I would not trust anything Tulsi Gabbard says, frankly. I mean this is a quote of her assessment from this March.

Iran's cyber operations and capabilities also present a serious threat to U.S. networks and data. The IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme leader Khomeini has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003. We continue to monitor closely if Tehran decides to reauthorize its nuclear weapons program.

From here. Khomeini has been dead since 1989. She really is a ditz.

What information, if any, does Trump have that US Intelligence does not? Netanyahu says so?

Given the number of high-ranking IRGC officers who were eliminated recently, I would say that Mossad has very good intelligence on Iran.

To me looking at this US attack, it all comes down to whether Iran really has bomb capability or almost had one and there is no one trustworthy to listen to.

Even IAEA says that they have enriched to 60%. They are not doing that for their health. They are doing it for nuclear weapons.

Also, last night Trump said that Iran's nuclear capability has been "obliterated". Of course I knew he could not know because one bomb could not penetrate deep enough. It would take multiple bombs down the same hole. And of course now the pentagon is saying that they don't know yet.

Well, they did drop multiple GBU-57s. 14 in total. But yes, you can never know right away how much damage you have caused underground.

How does one evaluate this situation when the main person here, Trump, it a pathological liar?

I too wish we had a more competent person in charge. On the other hand, would Kamala have been decisive enough to even do anything? I don't know.

 

[Derec]

How dare he criticize the "king". At least one Republican seems to care more about the country than the idiot leading it. Will he back down like the others did, who recently spoke out against getting involved in an attack on Iran? Even MTG criticized Trump the other day but she softened her attack today, by switching topic to Biden not protecting the border.

Thomas Massie hates Israel. For example, he was one of only nine Housecritters who voted against Iron Dome funding in 2021.
Ocasio-Cortez apologizes for her ‘present’ vote on Iron Dome funding.
So I am not surprised that he is unhappy with this. Btw, Trump already wants to primary him.
Scoop: Trump launches MAGA PAC in effort to oust Rep. Massie from Congress

MTG is just an idiot though.

So which is it Vance? It won't be some long drawn out thing until it is? The VP is as stupid as dear leader.

Depends on what you mean by "drawn out". Even if there is a longer air campaign, lasting weeks or months, I do not think anybody is considering putting boots on the ground and staying for years like in Iraq and Afghanistan.

 

[bilby]

Wars ate bad. Wars without a plan are catastrophic.

Tgis fucker know oil embargoes are a thing?

Embargoes? Iran don't need no embargoes.

They just need to release a bunch of cheap floating mines into the straits of Hormuz, and the tanker captains will refuse to pass through whether there's an embargo or not.

The world not only stops getting oil from Iran, but also most of the oil from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE.

What's the US gonna do in retaliation? Bomb Iran?

Sure, the US Navy has minesweepers (or as they are called in Iran, "targets"); But mines are cheap, so if the US sweep them, Iran can just put them back.

1. Every nation with oil will continue to sell it.

Not if they can't ship it.

The US itself has large strategic reserves and can pump out as much as is needed.

Not for long.

2. If the US wants to take out Iran's "navy" it will have no trouble doing so. Ships need harbors and there is no doubt the US knows exactly where those harbors are and what's in them.

Iran doesn't need a navy to mine the straits. It can be done by fishing boats. Or even from the coast, if you know the local currents and tides.

3. If the Iranian air force bothers to meet the U.S. in the sky, well, good luck with that.

They don't need air cover to drop mines into the sea.

I'm not supporting Trump nor am I saying that a ground war there would be a cakewalk... well, the initial invasion would be, but the aftermath wouldn't. It's just that I believe your thinking is a bit misguided on the issues you brought up.

I don't think any of your objections here can stop Iran from doing what I suggested. It's classic asymmetric warfare.

 

[Elixir]

I do not think anybody is considering putting boots on the ground and staying for years like in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Right. If it happens it will be without consideration. SOP for this administration. If the Felon thinks it will further His Power and His Glory, that’s all the consideration needed. If boots on the ground fill the bill, there will be boots on the ground.

 

[bilby]

You mean Trump has become a puppet of Israel. Oh wait. I thought he was a puppet of Putin's. Who's puppet is he really?

In the years leading up to the Great War, it was said that the most powerful man in Germany was whoever last spoke to the Kaiser.

Trump is easily manipulated, and totally lacks comprehension; His primary objective is to be seen as powerful and important. Just like Wilhelm II before him.

War is practically inevitable with such men as national leaders.

 

[bilby]

I did just read that it's very unlikely that Russia will help Iran, especially since Russia has so many resources tied up in fighting Ukraine.

Yeah, Putin was all great mates with the Ayatollahs when Iran was supplying munitions to Russia, but if the Iranians expect reciprocation, they are in for a rude shock.

 

[bilby]

There is no evidence that the facilities have been totally obliterated and in fact, there is some possibility that Iran has other facilities that are not known to the US.

This is Iran:



I took this picture in February, from my flight between Dubai and the UK on Emirates Airlines.

The entire country is one range after another of almost impenetrable mountains, separated by fertile valleys. It is just about the most difficult terrain imaginable for an invasion force, and is ideal for hiding pretty much anything.

You could hide a dozen underground research facilities in this, and you can bury them under an arbitrary mass of hard rock.

The assessment that the only way to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons is diplomacy, is 100% obvious. But now, essentially impossible.

Iran has a big challenge hiding any facilities from US satellites and Mossad agents on the ground; But their terrain gives them a massive head-start, and it would be a brave fool who declared it impossible.

 

[Elixir]

You could hide a dozen underground research facilities in this, and you can bury them under an arbitrary mass of hard rock.

Would such activity not be detectable from above?

 

[ZiprHead]

Just read Iran will close the Straits of Hormuz (sp?).

 

[bilby]

You could hide a dozen underground research facilities in this, and you can bury them under an arbitrary mass of hard rock.

Would such activity not be detectable from above?

Sure, if you know where to look, and what to look for.

How do you tell an underground nuclear weapons facility from a mine, based on satellite or aerial reconnaisance?

It can be done, with a moderate degree of uncertainty, by skilled photographic interpreters with high quality images to work from. But it's more of an art than a science.

Particularly if your enemy is actively trying to fool you.

 

[bilby]

Just read Iran will close the Straits of Hormuz (sp?).

It's easy to do; The mere threat of mines would likely be enough. No tanker captain will want to risk his crew and his ship, if there's a credible threat to its safety.