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Split UBI - Split From Breakdown In Civil Order

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If UBI is set at $30K... why would those people continue to work?
For more money :rolleyesa:
At a minimum, why would they continue to work full time?
They might not. A shorter work week would be a good thing, as it would reduce unemployment by allowing more people to work, but each to work fewer hours.
They probably don't have jobs they love, so why would they continue to do something they dislike when they can have the same standard of living and have complete leisure?
Because by doing it they could have a higher standard of living - possibly including more (but not "complete") leisure.

Financial incentives don't require people to be threatened with starvation or homelessness for their effectiveness. People continue to like having more money, even when they have food to eat and a place to live.
 
you have to assume that everyone will continue to produce at the same level they did when they weren't getting free money for having been born.
We observe that people who could afford to retire to a subsistence level lifestyle mostly choose not to do so. People like luxuries, and are prepared to work for them.
They're willing to work for those luxuries when the income-per-hour is a reasonable trade-off to the time it takes to get enough to afford the luxuries. People who are bringing in near SSI level incomes pre-retirement almost never continue working afterwards.
Your assumption that they would not work doesn't match what we observe peopke doing, and I sincerely doubt that it matches your own position - if someone offered you a subsistence level income for life, if you quit work tomorrow, would you quit?

Likely if you have a modest pension fund, and have been in the workforce for a while, somebody effectively IS offering you that option. Are you likely to take it?

If not, why do you imagine many others would?
I already answered this. In fact I answered it in the exact same post to which you are responding. It's literally in the same fucking post, so why are you asking me the same question again?

This year, no. If 50% of my income is taken as taxes, but I get $30K of it back, I'm still doing great. But my sister and her boyfriend would - $30K is more than they each make right now, there'd be no reason at all for them to work. They'd actually come out ahead, since they're not excluded from taxes. They'd end up with a higher effective income than they currently get. The same is true for... about a third of the people in the US. So let's assume that 50% of those are kids or retirees who aren't being taxes anyway... and you still end up with about 15% of the US workforce being better off not working at all than they are now.

Well sure, you might say... but wouldn't they want to continue working and get $35K instead of $30K? You're assuming that the desire to have a slightly better standard of living is more influential than the desire to not work at all and have 100% leisure time.

So a chunk of people are going to stop working. And that means that in year 2, it's not 50% of my income, but 55% of my income that is taken as taxes. Then it's 60%, then 70%, then 80%. My standard of living reduces with every tax increase, because my effective income gets smaller and smaller. At some point, you're asking me if I would be willing to work at my same job - which has a high degree of responsibility, accountability, and effort involved - so I can have $10K of after-tax salary plus $30K of free money? Nah. I wouldn't. At that point... probably a lot sooner than that... I can quit my job, move to the middle of nowhere and get a goat or two, take up painting, and long walks, and not have to do anything at all.
 
There would be no good reason for anyone to toil away for extremely low pay, when they can have enough to live comfortably by doing nothing more than being born.
That depends on what is meant by "comfortably", and you seem to imagine that most people have a different meaning for the word than you have yourself.
 
You're assuming that the desire to have a slightly better standard of living is more influential than the desire to not work at all and have 100% leisure time.
That's not an assumption, it's an observation.

The minority of people who don't behave that way mostly already don't work anyway. Or if they do, they're marginally productive at best.

The lazy people would drop out of the workforce, for sure. But we wouldn't notice their absence - indeed, productivity might even go up in that scenario.
I'm going to make a blanket assumption, for the purposes of this discussion.

I'm going to assume that you personally currently have an after-tax income of $100,000. You are comfortable, you can pay all your bills, even have a bit left over.

So seriously, seriously, seriously think about this.

If someone told you that in two weeks, at the beginning of 2024, you would receive $100,000 with no strings attached, just because you exist... and that you don't need to do anything else at all ever, you're guaranteed to get that same COLA $100,000 every year until you die... Would you continue to work? Would you work the same amount as you do now?
 
If UBI is set at $30K... why would those people continue to work?
For more money :rolleyesa:
At a minimum, why would they continue to work full time?
They might not. A shorter work week would be a good thing, as it would reduce unemployment by allowing more people to work, but each to work fewer hours.
They probably don't have jobs they love, so why would they continue to do something they dislike when they can have the same standard of living and have complete leisure?
Because by doing it they could have a higher standard of living - possibly including more (but not "complete") leisure.

Financial incentives don't require people to be threatened with starvation or homelessness for their effectiveness. People continue to like having more money, even when they have food to eat and a place to live.
I have two challenges for you to think about, bilby.

First - you said just a few posts above this that UBI is sufficent that anything earned in excess of that is disposable luxury income, and could be taxed at really high rates. That implies that UBI is enough that a person can have a reasonable standard of living, covering the necessities and basics of modern life, doesn't it? If UBI is NOT sufficient to cover the basics and necessities of modern life, then amounts earned above that shouldn't be taxed at high rates, as they are NOT disposable income anymore - right?

Second - you have already acknowledged that at a minimum, people will work less. That means they'll have less non-UBI income, which also means less taxes can be collected at the same rate. That means that the tax rate must go up in order to cover the same amount of UBI, doesn't it?
 
There would be no good reason for anyone to toil away for extremely low pay, when they can have enough to live comfortably by doing nothing more than being born.
That depends on what is meant by "comfortably", and you seem to imagine that most people have a different meaning for the word than you have yourself.

*Sigh*

Two questions:
1) What level would UBI need to be at in order for you to decide you will just quit your job and live on UBI?

2) If UBI were HALF of that level, but taxes on your earnings kept increasing, what level of income loss to taxes would bring you to the breaking point? Would you be willing to do your current job, with all of its requirements, if you took home 50% of your current salary + UBI at half of question 1? What if you only took home 25% of your current salary? At what percentage would it no longer be worth the time and effort involved?
 
You're assuming that the desire to have a slightly better standard of living is more influential than the desire to not work at all and have 100% leisure time.
That's not an assumption, it's an observation.

The minority of people who don't behave that way mostly already don't work anyway. Or if they do, they're marginally productive at best.

The lazy people would drop out of the workforce, for sure. But we wouldn't notice their absence - indeed, productivity might even go up in that scenario.
I'm going to make a blanket assumption, for the purposes of this discussion.

I'm going to assume that you personally currently have an after-tax income of $100,000. You are comfortable, you can pay all your bills, even have a bit left over.

So seriously, seriously, seriously think about this.

If someone told you that in two weeks, at the beginning of 2024, you would receive $100,000 with no strings attached, just because you exist... and that you don't need to do anything else at all ever, you're guaranteed to get that same COLA $100,000 every year until you die... Would you continue to work?
Yes.
Would you work the same amount as you do now?
Probably not.

Of course, nobody is suggesting a UBI anywhere near that size.

You appear to be forgetting what the "B" in UBI stands for.
 
I'm shocked to see that in a forum filled with math experts, there haven't been any calculations shared yet. I was looking forward to seeing stuff like:

T in d/dT(ln(UBI)) = 1/T^2 - pi/6 e^(ipiGDP)/(c^2 - UBI^2) dGDP Schrödinger's equation for labor under UBI: Psi(Labor) = e^(i/hbar * UBI)

Ya know, that weird lookin stuff?!? So I can confidently sleep tonight knowing that a brilliant mind is diligently working on the task.
 
I “retired” when I was 17.
Seriously, I came into what I thought was a fortune (about $4k) the day after dropping out of school and leaving home. And stuff like that kept happening for most of my life.

I have always understood that most Americans are lucky beyond all reason, and only the very very poorest are “poor” by world standards.

I got a job out of necessity once (19 yrs old, just a couple years after my first “retirement”), and really liked heliarc welding but the Company went under. By that time I no longer felt the money pressure that put me to work, but I’d have continued if the Company had remained in business.

I think - nay, I know - most people, given a subsistence income, would seek more via employment or entrepreneurialism and would be far better equipped to attain it than would be the case without UBI.

Of course there’s only one way to know for sure. Let’s try it!
 
Look, As a concept, UBI is fantastic. It sounds wonderful. I'd love to have it, I really would. But it's not feasible, and it's not sustainable. That's where it breaks down.
Whether or not an UBI is feasible or sustainable is an empirical question. Your argument that it is neither feasible nor sustainable is based on your assumptions about human behavior. Your assumptions are no more reasonable than bilby’s .

Yes, some would stop working under an UBI that bilby envisions. It would allow those who do not work as much ad they wish because of other responsibilities to work to work more.
I challenge the bolded.

I will concede that it's theoretically possible that the number of people who stop working would be so incredibly small that it would have an immaterial effect. But I find that idea to be implausible. I also find your supposition - that when those few people stopped working, others would happily work more - to be strained.

About a third of the people in the US have an unadjusted gross income of $30K or less. If UBI is set at $30K... why would those people continue to work? At a minimum, why would they continue to work full time? They probably don't have jobs they love, so why would they continue to do something they dislike when they can have the same standard of living and have complete leisure? By the same token... when some of those people quit their jobs, why do you think that other people working those same low income jobs would be happy to work more hours, especially when their after-tax pay is lower than it was pre-UBI?

What mechanism of human behavior do you think is at play here, and do you think there are enough of those sorts of people to offset the loss of workers - and thus the loss of taxes?

Like I said - show me the math. Do the work, and do it for a 10 year span, at least. Show your assumptions about what portion of people at the cusp decide to stop working, and what the impact of that is on the tax rates. Prove to me that it works using actual assumptions and math, and I'll change my position.

Like I said, it's not the concept that I oppose. It's a very nice, very happy, very compassionate idea. I *like* the idea. But the last time I went through modeling for it, it wasn't sustainable using reasonable assumptions. If you can prove to me that it is sustainable in a reasonable fashion, that would be awesome.
People whose income is less than the UBI might still choose to work because they wish to have an income above the UBI or because they wish to stay busy or because they want to also simply work. In addition, there are people who would like to work or start a business but their income would be insufficient to pay for dependent care and make the work worthwhile.

People stay in the work force for all sorts of reasons. I have 2 brothers. One would continue to work under UBI because he likes staying busy. The other might retire depending on the level of UBI.

If there was an UBI in the US, "income maintenance" programs could be eliminated, freeing up resources for UBI,


I don't see any need to "work out the math" given the volumes of debatable assumptions that are required to come up with a computable model. Which is why I said that whether or not it was sustainable and feasible is an empirical question.
 

Like I said - show me the math. Do the work, and do it for a 10 year span, at least. Show your assumptions about what portion of people at the cusp decide to stop working, and what the impact of that is on the tax rates. Prove to me that it works using actual assumptions and math, and I'll change my position.
How dare you derail a fantasy with unpleasant reality!
 

2) If UBI were HALF of that level, but taxes on your earnings kept increasing, what level of income loss to taxes would bring you to the breaking point? Would you be willing to do your current job, with all of its requirements, if you took home 50% of your current salary + UBI at half of question 1? What if you only took home 25% of your current salary? At what percentage would it no longer be worth the time and effort involved?
Yup. It comes down to what is the marginal result of additional work. Low income + high taxes = low marginal returns and few people in such positions will continue to do so because they like doing it. That's the realm of people in high skill jobs.
 
Ain't they doing something similar in Alaska with there oil? Might not be UBI but it might serve as an indicator of how it may work if left up to states. For example Florida might be able to use its tourism instead of oil.
 

2) If UBI were HALF of that level, but taxes on your earnings kept increasing, what level of income loss to taxes would bring you to the breaking point? Would you be willing to do your current job, with all of its requirements, if you took home 50% of your current salary + UBI at half of question 1? What if you only took home 25% of your current salary? At what percentage would it no longer be worth the time and effort involved?
Yup. It comes down to what is the marginal result of additional work. Low income + high taxes = low marginal returns and few people in such positions will continue to do so because they like doing it. That's the realm of people in high skill jobs.
Low skill jobs fucking well should be automated. Nobody should have to do that shit.

The history of employment is the history of a painfully slow removal of vicious coercion by employers of low skill workers.

Take sugar cane farming as an example. It's truly awful work - Hot, labourious, dangerous, and unpleasant. Literally nobody wants to do it. So cane farmers enslaved people to do it. And when it was suggested that enslaving people was unacceptable, the cane farmers forecast calamity if slaves were freed, and a complete collapse of the economy.

But what actually happened was that people were coerced into working for tiny wages, and deliberately and violently prevented from any kind of collective action to demand better pay, or from leaving to go find better work elsewhere.

Then it was suggested that paying people in company tokens that could only be spent at company stores was unacceptable. The cane farmers forecast calamity if their workforce was empowered to go elsewhere for employment, and a complete collapse of the economy.

Eventually, people got the freedom to stop wielding machetes in snake-infested canefields under the blazing sun, and they left the cane farms in droves.

Today, sugar cane is harvested by one of these:

IMG_1044.jpeg

The operator sits in an airconditioned cab, in comfort and safety.

The people who used to do that work don't rampage around the countryside as a starving and homeless mob; They just went and found other jobs. The economy didn't collapse.

And those who couldn't or wouldn't find other work are living on government handouts. Which may not be lucrative, but it beats the crap out of slavery, or of coerced (poorly) paid work.

If your job could be done by a machine, for less than the wages you would need to make ends meet (plus a little for luxuries), then it should be done by a machine.

And if there's no other work you can do, you should be paid to do nothing - which society can easily afford, because most stuff is incredibly cheap to produce, as a consequence of its being done by machines.

It takes a special kind of stupid to create an economy in which being replaced by a machine that can do the same work at a tenth of the cost is somehow a bad thing for any of the people involved.

But that's what we've got, because the slave owner mentality - people must work or they don't eat, and people won't work unless forced to do so (neither of which seems to apply if you're of the wealthy class; They are only rules for the poor) - is all pervasive amongst the people who have all the money (which they largely got by being decendants of slavers and/or exploiters of cheap labour).

Being cruel isn't a prerequisite for a productive economy, in the post industrial era. It's time we stopped assuming that it is.
 
Ain't they doing something similar in Alaska with there oil? Might not be UBI but it might serve as an indicator of how it may work if left up to states. For example Florida might be able to use its tourism instead of oil.
Yes. And the more family members in the household the better it gets.
 

Like I said - show me the math. Do the work, and do it for a 10 year span, at least. Show your assumptions about what portion of people at the cusp decide to stop working, and what the impact of that is on the tax rates. Prove to me that it works using actual assumptions and math, and I'll change my position.
How dare you derail a fantasy with unpleasant reality!
I have been recommending the derailing of YOUR fantasy the only way truly possible - GIVE IT A RIP! Let the “unpleasant reality” happen, if you’re so convinced that it will. I think the underlying fear of doing that is that it might NOT be as unpleasant as you assume, and you’ll be stuck with it. You’re petrified of an undetectable effect in the MW case and it seems the same here, to the point where you’ve adopted creationist argumentation to cover the vacuity of your thoughts on the matter, just as you’ve done with the MW discussion.
Seems to be a pattern, Loren. There appears to be a faction that is determined to preserve a large pool of desperately poor people who can be relied upon to do the dirtiest of work for the very least possible compensation. I understand that kind of self interest and it’s associated fears, but I don’t subscribe.

I am open to any rational argument against UBI or raising the MW. You haven’t offered one.
 
I find the fixation on the expected overall negative effect of UBI on work effort rather curious. There are plenty of observable examples of people who continue to work even though they have earned millions if not billions of dollars. No one seems to be worried about people reducing the amount of work when they are getting pay raises.
 
There are plenty of observable examples of people who continue to work even though they have earned millions if not billions of dollars.

Good point. In fact there is an argument to be made that there is a direct, rather than inverse, relationship between income and motivation to work.

(Sits, trying to think of a “retired billionaire”.)
 
There is an interesting UBI trial in Kenya. Unlike the previous trials which were for a very limited duration, this one is 2 years in to a 12 year trial period. The first set of results are coming out - First Results from World's largest UBI experimentFirst Results from World's largest UBI experiment.)

The latest research on the GiveDirectly pilot, done by MIT economists Tavneet Suri and Nobel Prize winner Abhijit Banerjee, compares three groups: short-term basic income recipients (who got the $20 payments for two years), long-term basic income recipients (who get the money for the full 12 years), and lump sum recipients, who got $500 all at once, or roughly the same amount as the short-term basic income group. Suri and Banerjee shared some results on a call with reporters this week....By almost every financial metric, the lump sum group did better than the monthly payment group. Suri and Banerjee found that the lump sum group earned more, started more businesses, and spent more on education than the monthly group. “You end up seeing a doubling of net revenues” — or profits from small businesses — in the lump sum group, Suri said. The effects were about half that for the short-term $20-a-month group....As you might expect, given how entrepreneurially minded the recipients are, the researchers found no evidence that any of the payments discouraged work or increased purchases of alcohol — two common criticisms of direct cash giving. In fact, so many people who used to work for wages instead started businesses that there was less competition for wage work, and overall wages in villages rose as a result.......And they found one major advantage for monthly payments over lump sum ones, despite the big benefits of lump sum payments for business formation. People who got monthly checks were generally happier and reported better mental health than lump sum recipients. “The lump sum group gets a huge amount of money and has to invest it, and this might cause them some stress,” Suri speculates. In any case, the long-term monthly recipients are happiest of all, and “some of that is because they know it’s going to be there for 12 years ... It provides mental health benefits in a stability sense.”
It is too early to generalize and extrapolating the results rural Kenyan villages to more developed regions is problematic, but initially there does not seem to be a negative effect on labor in this sample.
 
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