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US Catholic Nuns Dwindle, become "None"

lpetrich

lpetrich

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The Catholic Crackdown on Feminism | Daylight Atheism | Big Think -- in 2009, Vatican officials decided that something was terribly wrong in the Church: that nuns are too feminist.
Catholic World News: Apostolic visitation of US nuns is making waves
Nuns in Street Clothing Shouldn’t Frighten Vatican: Mary Johnson - Bloomberg
Yet there is a bigger difficulty that they have been reluctant to talk about. Nuns in the richer countries have had bigger declines, with most of the survivors being old. Meaning that there are not enough new nuns to replace those who have died. For the US, here are the numbers so far:
YearNuns
1966181,421
1988106,912
199394,022
200571,486
201146,451

Back in 2005, I worked out a demographic model for US nuns using these sources. LA Times, 1994: Number of Nuns on Brink of Precipitous Drop, MSNBC, 2005: How can nuns survive in America? For 1993:
Age RangeFraction
< 403%
40 - 5013%
50 - 6021%
60 - 7026%
70 - 8025%
> 8012%
I made these predictions from it:
YearNuns
200372,000
201349,000
202329,000
203314,000
20439,000
I used the < 40 figure to get an estimate of the new-nun rate, and I assumed an average lifespan of 85 years. The last estimate is my model's steady-state number of nuns.

For 2011, I estimated about 50,000 nuns. That estimate turned out to be very close. Source: Studies chart diminishment of US sisters' numbers | National Catholic Reporter (Oct. 19, 2011).

That article noted that the heyday of US Catholic women becoming nuns was in the 1940's to 1960's, and those nuns are now dying off. Now, about 91% of nuns are more than 60 years old, and most of those under 60 are in their 50's. More than half of nuns-in training are over 40. Projected in 2019: over-70 nuns will outnumber under-70 nuns 4:1. Close to my demographic estimates.

The success of my estimates implies that there's been no big influx of nuns in the last few decades. This is evident in Catholic schools, which used to have lots of nuns as teachers. Nowadays, they hire mainly laypeople and even a lot of non-Catholics. I have a relative who taught at a Catholic school for a while. She wasn't even a Catholic. It seems that many US Catholic schools don't have many working-age nuns to teach in them anymore.

The Graying of the Priesthood, Continued
notes
Sister Rachel is 35. Is she among a dying breed? At Bethesda’s Little Flower Parish, the nun and her elderly counterparts keep the faith as their ranks dwindle | The Washington Post
Fifty years ago, deciding to become a nun was not at all uncommon. The U.S. population was 195 million in 1965, and there were about 181,000 nuns, the peak number for religious sisters in the country, according to a 2009 study by the Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate at Georgetown University.

Today there are 321 million Americans and approximately 48,000 nuns. And the vast majority of them are retired. Sixty-nine percent of all nuns are 70 or older. Just 3 percent of nuns in the United States are under age 49.
Click to expand...
Also close to my demographic model. It predicted 45,000 nuns in 2015.
 
Nothing productive to add to this, but can I just say I love that you created a predictive model for the number of nuns in the U.S.

I'd ask why, but I suspect the answer will be because it's fun. :p

Interesting stuff, thank you!
 
I agree, like the other thread "decline of religious affiliation in recent times" useful and informative from such effort.

Good work!
 
This seems like desperation: Importing Nuns to Save American Monasteries | Alicia Patterson Foundation and an article about foreign nuns in Italy. I couldn't locate the latter article, but I have this quotation from it:
There are about 700 foreign nuns who work on a permanent basis in Italy. To this figure must be added the close to 8,000 nuns who have come from abroad to receive their religious formation or complete their studies in Italy. The total of foreign nuns is greater than that of Italian nuns working abroad. (These total 8,030.)

... Because of the scarcity of Italian vocations, the needs of congregations often call for the insertion of new foreign personnel. ...
Click to expand...

The number of US Catholic priests has also been falling dramatically. This suggests that the Church's protection of its pedophile priests is at least partially motivated by wanting to keep some priests on the job. Declines of priests and nuns are also happening in several European countries, including long-time Catholic strongholds like Ireland, Spain, and Italy.


Returning to the question of feminism, one reason for the decline may be the greater career opportunities that many women have had over the last few decades. Career opportunities that do not require them to sacrifice their sexuality or their families, and that do not require them to dress like penguins. Also, the Church imposes a rather low glass ceiling on the female sex. Women are not allowed to be priests in it or anyone higher-ranking in the Church hierarchy. The stated reason is that priests must be in the "image of Christ" or some such. So women can't be priests because Jesus Christ had been male.
 
Learner said:
I agree, like the other thread "decline of religious affiliation in recent times" useful and informative from such effort.

Good work!
Click to expand...

^^^ Yes! Enjoying that thread too! :) Been lurking and reading there. :D
 
Catholic Data, Catholic Statistics, Catholic Research
Nineteen Sixty-four: Sister Statistics: What Is Happening?
Population Trends Among Religious Institutes of Women

These pages have some numbers, though they are somewhat different from the numbers that I'd posted earlier.
YearUS Nuns
1950147,310
1965179,954
1966181,421
1970160,931
1975135,225
1980126,517
1985115,386
1990102,504
199590,809
200079,814
200568,634
201057,544
201449,883
This curve is approximately linear, and a naive extrapolation suggests that US nuns will become "none" by 2036.

Priests have also declined, but more slowly, from 58,632 in 1965 to 38,275 in 2014. Brothers, however, declined as much as nuns, from 12,271 to 4,318.

Nuns' age composition suggests that the Church has had little success in recruiting new US nuns. Here are my sources' numbers from 2009:
CohortFraction
< 401%
40 - 492%
50 - 596%
60 - 6922%
70 - 7932%
80 - 8926%
>= 9011%
I get fairly good agreement with my demographic model, when extrapolated from 1993 to 2009. If anything, there are fewer young nuns in 2009 than in 1993, a decline by a factor of 5 for under-40 and by a factor of 2.5 for 40 - 50 relative to my extrapolation using under-40 numbers. My model also overestimates nuns 50 - 60 by a factor of 2, 60 - 70 and 70 - 80 by a factor of 1.2, and 80 - 90 by a factor of 1.6, assuming no die-off. But an average lifespan of 85 would bring the latter number closer to 1.

Looking elsewhere in the world, one can find some interesting trends.
Nation20022012
Netherlands10,5925,669
Belgium14,7398,921
Tanzania7,41510,537
Philippines11,93312,813
Canada22,32514,656
Colombia17,29514,727
Vietnam10,90816,239
Poland23,90521,180
Germany36,02425,171
Mexico28,88928,066
Brazil34,99329,686
France44,76732,040
Spain57,51046,962
US73,70453,205
Italy108,17586,431
India85,05299,330
Sorting by (2012 number) / (2002 number), I find Netherlands 0.54, Belgium 0.61, Canada 0.66, Germany 0.7, France 0.72, US 0.72, Italy 0.8, Spain 0.82, Brazil 0.85, Colombia 0.85, Poland 0.89, Mexico 0.97, Philippines 1.07, India 1.17, Tanzania 1.42, Vietnam 1.49.

As an applied research center, there are many reasons for CARA to focus on women religious. Perhaps the most pressing is that if current trends continue (…and they may not), there would be fewer than 1,000 religious sisters in the United States in 2043 (…most of this change would occur through aging and mortality with 11% of sisters in the United States currently in their 90s, 26% in their 80s, and 32% in their 70s). This estimated 2043 total would be similar to the number of sisters in the United States in the middle of the 19th century. Currently the total number of sisters in the United States is similar to totals for the first years of the 20th century.

The number of sisters relative to the Catholic population is more precarious in the United States than in Belgium, Canada, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland. The situation in the U.S., is slightly better than in Austria, France, Poland, and Portugal. Leading all other countries, there are more sisters in India than anywhere else (99,330). That equates to about 199 Catholics in India per religious sister.

By comparison there are 1,338 Catholics per religious sister in the United States (and 672 per religious sister in Italy). In addition to India, in several other Asian and African countries, the number of religious sisters is growing year over year (e.g., Nigeria, Tanzania, Rwanda, Vietnam, Indonesia, and South Korea). Yet in many of these countries there are still more Catholics per religious sister than in the United States (e.g. in Nigeria this is 4,783 compared to 1,338 in the United States). No European country is currently experiencing growth in the number of religious sisters. Between 2002 and 2012, Asia and Africa experienced a net increase in sisters of 39,420. By comparison, the Americas, Europe, and Oceania lost a net 119,823 sisters during this same period (…globally the Church experienced a net loss of 80,403 sisters since 2002).
Click to expand...
More evidence of that trend.
 
Shucks.
I was hoping for a thread about nuns and shrink rays...

But aside from that, The church has had a growing problem with American women for quite a while. My wife was Catholic when we married, and our first kid was baptized.

But then they started a woman on the road to sainthood for dying of AIDS. Her husband was HIV positive, she asked for dispensation to use birth control so she could still have sex without exposing herself to AIDS. They denied it. They also reminded her that she really was supposed to have sex with her husband, AND that divorce wasn't allowed. She obeyed. She died, they celebrated.
By some strange coincidence, Mrs. &Co. hasn't been in a church since, except for funerals. She was not the only woman to stop going about then...
 
Keith&Co. said:
Shucks.
I was hoping for a thread about nuns and shrink rays...

But aside from that, The church has had a growing problem with American women for quite a while. My wife was Catholic when we married, and our first kid was baptized.

But then they started a woman on the road to sainthood for dying of AIDS. Her husband was HIV positive, she asked for dispensation to use birth control so she could still have sex without exposing herself to AIDS. They denied it. They also reminded her that she really was supposed to have sex with her husband, AND that divorce wasn't allowed. She obeyed. She died, they celebrated.
By some strange coincidence, Mrs. &Co. hasn't been in a church since, except for funerals. She was not the only woman to stop going about then...
Click to expand...

That's completely fucked up and really just so sad. I can't see any other way of looking at it. Reality isn't important or the quality of people's lives it seems - its what people might be saying about the organization. I tell you, they've been saying what they think about the organization for some time and its quite often not terms of high regard that are being used. But that's just another aspect of reality they can ignore. Ultimately people have to understand themselves where the boundary has been well and truly crossed and decide what is more important to them - some salvaging of peace of mind, a little happiness grabbed from a desperate situation or the continued pretence of a healthy and moral organisation being upheld.
 
I knew one girl who went off to convent to become a nun. She was five years older than me. She lasted several months and then came home. I don't know the whole story but apparently it was not the life she imagined.

In my parents generation girls who wanted to become nuns were taken after completing 8th grade. Even my father, a staunch catholic, thought this was not proper, that they should at least be allowed to finish high school, that age 14 was too young.

But it was a lifestyle choice for young girls in those times when opportunities for women were limited.
 
joedad said:
But it was a lifestyle choice for young girls in those times when opportunities for women were limited.
Click to expand...
And the available ones unpalatable...

One of my aunts heard a nun described as 'married to Christ.' She glared at my uncle and said, "At least Jesus doesn't steal the covers..."
 
Unquestionably true.

Though, just because I like to throw a curveball every now and then: I note that there has been a decline in nearly every profession that requires a lifelong commitment, especially in service to others:


Are these connected issues, or separate? Are young people simply unable or unwilling to risk their livelihoods on a single "job"? Have we lost the social sensibility that would lead to prestige being attached to those in public service? Is society itself unable or unwilling to material support for those who do? (The "vow of poverty" is no joke!). Perhaps an interesting non-religious angle to approach this from.
 
Politesse said:
Are these connected issues, or separate?
Click to expand...
Parallel.
I believe that with Doctors and Cops, it's a matter of exposure to lawsuits for doing their jobs.
Teachers and Social workers labor under increasing demands on their time (such as now teachers are going to be gun-carrying security guards to stop the kids they're also the therapists for), with decreasing budgets and/or support.
 
Keith&Co. said:
Politesse said:
Are these connected issues, or separate?
Click to expand...
Parallel.
I believe that with Doctors and Cops, it's a matter of exposure to lawsuits for doing their jobs.
Teachers and Social workers labor under increasing demands on their time (such as now teachers are going to be gun-carrying security guards to stop the kids they're also the therapists for), with decreasing budgets and/or support.
Click to expand...

And I would include the increasing cost of higher education.
 
The Op hasn't factored in the likely increase in nuns (and priests) which will accompany
renewed growth in catholic numbers following the purge of atheists and pedophiles
masquerading as clergy.
...a purge helped in part by the publicity generated when New Atheists like Richard Dawkins and Dan Dennett and Dan Barker 'outed' atheist clergy as if it was some sort of 'gotcha' moment.
 
Lion IRC said:
The Op hasn't factored in the likely increase in nuns (and priests) which will accompany
renewed growth in catholic numbers following the purge of atheists and pedophiles
masquerading as clergy.
...a purge helped in part by the publicity generated when New Atheists like Richard Dawkins and Dan Dennett and Dan Barker 'outed' atheist clergy as if it was some sort of 'gotcha' moment.
Click to expand...

I like the way that this post gives an implicit association between atheists and pedophiles to let everybody know that they're just as bad as each other.

If there is an increase in the number of nuns, I hope the rest of the clergy starts treating them better and with more respect.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/vatican-nuns-cheap-labour-1.4557658
 
An implicit association between atheists and pedophiles???
Wait. What?
I don't understand.
How on Earth do you join those (purely coincidental) dots?
 
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