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US President 2016 - the Great Horse Race

RavenSky said:
That is stomach-turning and scary.
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It is indeed. And while I find the harassment of this man and his family to be abhorrent, there is a "chickens coming home to roost" element of this story.

I may have missed it, but nowhere in this piece did I see any sort of self-reflection on the part of the author about the fact that conservatives have as of late been pretty harsh on people who break ranks with party orthodoxy. These are the folks who think being liberal is tantamount to treason, and throw the term "RINO" at anyone not sufficiently conservative. The...well...deplorable people who sent all those hateful and violent tweets and posts towards this guy are not newcomers to the GOP. They've been there all along, and in numbers sufficient to make Donald J. Trump the Republican nominee.
 
Now where is all this deplorable stuff coming from?


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It occurred to me that Trump could lose 3 of 4 states along the Mexico border. #mandateforawall?


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bilby said:
James Brown said:
The cynic in me says that if that happens, it will only take Ted Cruz running again in 2020 for Texas to turn back to deep red again.
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Perhaps. I think a lot of traditionally red states will turn blue this year; whether they go back to red in four or eight years time will depend on the GOP not selecting a crazy lunatic as their candidate. Given this year's nominee, I'm not hugely confident that they can do that.
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Many believe, seing the dislike of both candidates, that any one but Trump would have won by a landslide for the GOP this election.
 
Ford said:
RavenSky said:
That is stomach-turning and scary.
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It is indeed. And while I find the harassment of this man and his family to be abhorrent, there is a "chickens coming home to roost" element of this story.

I may have missed it, but nowhere in this piece did I see any sort of self-reflection on the part of the author about the fact that conservatives have as of late been pretty harsh on people who break ranks with party orthodoxy. These are the folks who think being liberal is tantamount to treason, and throw the term "RINO" at anyone not sufficiently conservative. The...well...deplorable people who sent all those hateful and violent tweets and posts towards this guy are not newcomers to the GOP. They've been there all along, and in numbers sufficient to make Donald J. Trump the Republican nominee.
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I saw this from someone's fb. Spot on, IMHO.

<iframe src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Ftimjacobwise%2Fposts%2F10153898005140969&width=500" width="500" height="603" style="border:none;overflow:hidden" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowTransparency="true"></iframe>

First, it is terrible what David French has had to endure from the alt-right assholes he now understands and fears. And...it is also a-historic as hell for he or the National Review, where this piece appears, to feign innocence in the creation of this Frankenstein's monster.

It was National Review that led the charge against civil rights from its perch of intellectual conservative respectability in the 60s...it was THEY who nurtured white resentment. It was they who went so far as to claim that blacks had bombed the 16th Street Baptist Church in Birmingham in 1963 (killing four young women) as a propaganda move to discredit otherwise righteous white southerners merely standing up for their way of life...it was their founder, William F. Buckley, who suggested blacks were not civilized enough to vote. The fact that he spoke with an affected Connecticut upper-crust accent doesn't change his fundamental similarity to this cretin and his unwashed followers.

Just because NR is the organ of the "better" racists doesn't change the direction of the lean. You created this. You and your dog whistle bullshit, which GOP campaign operative Lee Atwater admitted was ALL about pushing buttons of racial resentment and anger. You planted this demon seed, you watered it, you fed it manure day in and day out and then you act shocked when it sprouts the very plant it was designed to send forth. No no...you will not be forgiven, nor forgotten. As we crush Trump and all he stands for, you will be next: the "respectable" racists whose only real problem with the likes of even David Duke was that he was fucking up their brand. Too late precious. The whole lot of you will be made to answer for this.

And as we sweep you from your perch, you will know that you were defeated by the forces you sought to cow. That your time is up, the country you envisioned done forever, and in its place will rise something better. You will be a museum relic. Not just Trump. You. Not just the unlettered masses of Western PA and Rust Belt Ohio, but you, with your degrees and your erudition. All of you. That sound you hear in the distance is the sound of democracy. It is coming, and you and yours will not likely fare well in the face of it. Because bottom line: the emerging America is just not that into you...and you're about to find that out...viscerally so.

So good Luck to David French and his family. Perhaps now he will understand what we on the left have been trying to tell he and others like him for years. He is always welcome to change sides, of course, or, alternately, he can go on trying to salvage a respectable conservatism from the ruins of this neo-fascist mess. If he chooses the latter, as I suspect he will, all I can say to him is good luck...
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So there are a couple of national polls out. An IBD/TIPP poll indicating Trump has a slight lead (2 pts) and an ABC poll which indicates a landslide for Clinton (13 pts!). Clearly there is a discrepancy here. I took a look and it isn't what you'd think (or what a Trump supporter would think at least). The IBD/TIPP poll has an "evil" weighted voter distribution (despite Limbaugh going bananas about their accuracy in '12), 282 D to 226 R to 259 I, so it isn't that the IBD/TIPP poll asks more Republicans.

There is something else, something I haven't seen in the other polls and have no idea how IBD is getting these results. IBD/TIPP has Trump leading because the Democrats they are polling, only 77% support Clinton, while Trump has 84% of the Republicans. Now in statewide polls and other national polls, the number is typically upper 80s to lower 90s for Clinton, as seen in the ABC poll at 89%. Trump's support in the IBD poll is generally where it has floated, low to mid 80s. For instance, see the last Quin poll. Clinton at 91%, Trump at 80%.

So the question is, just where is IBD finding these Democrats? It may be the same people Rasmussen is polling.
Rasmussen said:
Trump has the support of 78% of Republicans and 15% of Democrats and continues to hold a small lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party. Clinton has the backing of 77% of Democrats and 11% of GOP voters.
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I think the only way to get results like these, assuming on the up and up, is to get Democrats in rural areas that haven't voted Democrat in decades (think rural Florida).

To continue the data dive, Economist/YouGov and Bloomberg show similar numbers with Economist at (85/80 inter-party support from Clinton/Trump) and Bloomberg (93 / 85, but that includes leaners). A bit of irony is that Reuters, which was demonized by right-wingers and Trump love children, shows a bit more even (80/78).

So I believe this is the source of the national polling discrepancy.

So for Trump Supporters, do you really think the Democrats will turn out less for Clinton than Republicans will for Trump? Yes I know, I said think.
 
Method to help Trump win that I am stealing just as an example:

I've found a much more effective technique in my opinion, just say to hardcore leftists that Hillary is obviously going to win.

So vote for Stein to influence a shift to the left like Bernie did in the primaries.

It's so difficult for them to actually argue against them, besides that way they don't "taint their vote".
 
angelo said:
bilby said:
Perhaps. I think a lot of traditionally red states will turn blue this year; whether they go back to red in four or eight years time will depend on the GOP not selecting a crazy lunatic as their candidate. Given this year's nominee, I'm not hugely confident that they can do that.
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Many believe, seing the dislike of both candidates, that any one but Trump would have won by a landslide for the GOP this election.
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Fifteen of them couldn't beat Trump in the primary.
 
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There has been a lot of Trump ranting about globalism, not sure if he has thrown dog whistles into his speeches.
 
repoman said:
There has been a lot of Trump ranting about globalism, not sure if he has thrown dog whistles into his speeches.
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Let me make it clear, yes, he did. Dissolving borders, global institutions -> "Jews" and "the NWO". This is Alex Jones territory. You know that.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
repoman said:
There has been a lot of Trump ranting about globalism, not sure if he has thrown dog whistles into his speeches.
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Let me make it clear, yes, he did. Dissolving borders, global institutions -> "(((Jews)))" and "the NWO". This is Alex Jones territory. You know that.
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Pepe the frog now approves of this post.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
repoman said:
There has been a lot of Trump ranting about globalism, not sure if he has thrown dog whistles into his speeches.
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Let me make it clear, yes, he did. Dissolving borders, global institutions -> "Jews" and "the NWO". This is Alex Jones territory. You know that.
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<snip>
 
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Slogging through the Remington polls that came out. One was for Ohio and I believe so strongly in this poll that I'm willing to say Ohio is going for Clinton. Of course, you may have noticed that Ohio goes for Trump in this poll. The trouble in this poll is the weighting is absurd, 43 R / 34 D / 23 I. Yeah, umm no!

The poll show Trump sweeping the state, yet only leading by 4 pts? No, fuck you! No way in heck can Trump sweep Ohio, yet only win by 4 pts. Based on the numbers, a reasonable distribution of the voter turnout, Ohio looks to be heading towards Clinton territory.
 
Fivethirtyeight doesn't give Remington a pollster rating, but includes them in their calculations.

ABC/WashingtonPost released another very positive clinton national poll.

Fivethirtyeight points out that there are a lot of undecided voters still left (more than typical) which adds more uncertainty to the polls.
 
Sarpedon said:
Fivethirtyeight doesn't give Remington a pollster rating, but includes them in their calculations.

ABC/WashingtonPost released another very positive clinton national poll.

Fivethirtyeight points out that there are a lot of undecided voters still left (more than typical) which adds more uncertainty to the polls.
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Remington's problem is they are over calling 45+. People 18 - 29 were about 20% of the vote in '12. Remington has some states as low at 9% for 18 - 29. This very well could be the source for the oversampling of Democrats that want to vote for Trump, i.e. Democrats that haven't voted for a Democrat since '92 or '96. Younger Democrats aren't likely to vote for a Trump.
 
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