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US President 2016 - the Great Horse Race

Even if Trump doesn't win on the first ballot, I can't see him losing on the 2nd or 3rd ballot. The GOP just cannot get away at this point in helicoptering in somebody else, and they aren't friendly to Cruz. If they cheat Trump out of the nomination, the Trumpistas will punish them by staying home, come election day.

The theory was always that the republican functionaries who are the delegates would switch their votes away from him as soon as they were legally allowed to do so. The question has always been 'to whom?'
 
Even if Trump doesn't win on the first ballot, I can't see him losing on the 2nd or 3rd ballot. The GOP just cannot get away at this point in helicoptering in somebody else, and they aren't friendly to Cruz. If they cheat Trump out of the nomination, the Trumpistas will punish them by staying home, come election day.

The theory was always that the republican functionaries who are the delegates would switch their votes away from him as soon as they were legally allowed to do so. The question has always been 'to whom?'
Cruz has been active with the state conventions where the delegates are selected. That is how he was supposed to be able to get the 2nd or 3rd ballot victory. But liking Cruz now doesn't necessarily mean they'll like him in July. And with a butt whooping in Indiana, Cruz has problems even with his alternative method to gain the nomination. So the good news is Cruz may be out, but umm... that means... well... Donald 'If Clinton were a man, her penis would be half an inch long' Trump.

I think the Republican leadership just woke up happy for a moment then noticed they had a terrible headache, are in the hospital, handcuffed to the bed... and then they slightly recall getting into a car while drunk the previous night.

They don't know what to do. Option 1 is hell. Option 2 is hell. There is no Option 3. For a short while they had the underwear gnome thing going:

1) Stop Trump from getting nomination
2) ...
3) We keep the House, Senate, and the gain the White House

Now they realize they fucked up and it could destroy the party. They probably are trying to suss out polling to see how bad a Trump or Cruz Presidential run are for Congress. May have found out not good for either. Add to this the whole blocking a moderate nominee for the Supreme Court and there is tremendous poison in the electoral well, where people like Chuck Grassley and John McCain aren't looking good for re-election.

At this point, they keep pooping themselves and pressing the nurse button, but no one is coming to help.

Meanwhile the Democrats are laughing on the inside... and the outside, though in the back of their head, they keep wondering to themselves... 'The people aren't dumb enough to elect Trump... right?'
 
Would this be a good time to note that Trump doesn't have enough money to run for President if the Party doesn't help him?

That's fun to think about.
(re-lighting my republican-scented schadenfreude candle and taking a deep breath...)
 
Would this be a good time to note that Trump doesn't have enough money to run for President if the Party doesn't help him?

That's fun to think about.
(re-lighting my republican-scented schadenfreude candle and taking a deep breath...)
Yeah... a billionaire who screams on about his success... asking for people to help fund his General Election run.
 
The MSNBC analysts are looking at the numbers and Trump can indeed take the nomination on the first ballot. The stop Trump movement is dead. Cruz can't win. There is no outsider that can step in and save the GOP. The question now is indeed, could the bastard beat Hillary? There is a big "Never gonna vote for Trump" among Republicans but there is also "Never gonna vote for Hillary" faction amongst the Democrats. This could all be scary by November.
 
The MSNBC analysts are looking at the numbers and Trump can indeed take the nomination on the first ballot. The stop Trump movement is dead. Cruz can't win. There is no outsider that can step in and save the GOP. The question now is indeed, could the bastard beat Hillary? There is a big "Never gonna vote for Trump" among Republicans but there is also "Never gonna vote for Hillary" faction amongst the Democrats. This could all be scary by November.

Well, the divide on the Dem side doesn't actually exist all that much and she's been the runaway favourite amongst the voters the entire way along. There's not a fraction of the antipathy which exists amongst the GOP between the factions and the vast majority of the Sanders people ar going to line up behind her against what is clearly the greater of the two evils.

Clinton was always going to have an easy stroll into the White House and while Trump being her opponent means that now she has someone to pick her up and carry her there so she can just kind of nap the rest of the way, the ou come of this election has never actually been in doubt.
 
Just announced: Cruz suspends his campaign.
Holy wow! What does the RNC have in plan? Will they fund his run? Will they cancel the convention and just release a memo?

So much effort to stop Trump and they give up after a truce with Kasich.

Simply wow.

Trump, good news bad news. You won the nomination... likely. You can't erase stuff from the Internet.
 
Woo hoo! Bernie 51% to Hillary's 49% with 31% of the vote in! Bernie might do it!

Bernie did it, 53.3% to 47.7%. Bernie got 39 pledged delegates and 0 superdelegates. Hillary got 29 pledged delegates and 7 superdelegates.

Bernie did it, Cruz got the headlines, Hillary got all of the inside the party operatives.
 
Woo hoo! Bernie 51% to Hillary's 49% with 31% of the vote in! Bernie might do it!

Bernie did it, 53.3% to 47.7%. Bernie got 39 pledged delegates and 0 superdelegates. Hillary got 29 pledged delegates and 7 superdelegates.

Bernie did it, Cruz got the headlines, Hillary got all of the inside the party operatives.

Bernie won 53% of the votes, he got 52% of the delegates. Hillary won 48% of the vote, she got 49% of the delegates. Those party operatives must be stopped!!
 
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Just announced: Cruz suspends his campaign.
Holy wow! What does the RNC have in plan? Will they fund his run? Will they cancel the convention and just release a memo?

So much effort to stop Trump and they give up after a truce with Kasich.

Simply wow.

Trump, good news bad news. You won the nomination... likely. You can't erase stuff from the Internet.

I think they will - Fox News seems to be gung ho about him now. The RNC gains nothing if they don't support him at this point
 
Metaphor for the Cruz campaign
carlyfalling.gif.CROP.original-original.gif
 
When you make a deal with the devil but aren't specific about the terms of the contract
 
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