US President 2016 - the Great Horse Race

[Derec]

also this one:
https://www.youtube.com/embed/da6hDp-v5yI

Priceless.

Not only for the elbowing but because he made the "Cruz Fiorina" signs and they lasted, what, a week?

 

[George S]

Now that Cruz has dropped out, Trump is the de facto Republican nominee.
Hillary is almost as sure as Trump.

The General Election Campaign begins today.

 

[lpetrich]

Who's in and who's out:

Republican:
Ted Cruz: 2015 Mar 23 - 2016 May 3
Rand Paul: 2015 Apr 7 - 2016 Feb 3
Marco Rubio: 2015 Apr 13 - 2016 Mar 15
Ben Carson: 2015 May 3 - 2016 Mar 4
Carly Fiorina: 2015 May 4 - 2016 Feb 11
Mike Huckabee: 2015 May 5 - 2016 Feb 1
Rick Santorum: 2015 May 27 - 2016 Feb 3
George Pataki: 2015 May 28 - 2015 Dec 29
Lindsey Graham: 2015 Jun 1 - 2015 Dec 21
Rick Perry: 2015 Jun 4 - 2015 Sep 11
Jeb Bush: 2015 Jun 15 - 2016 Feb 20
Donald Trump: 2015 Jun 16 -
Bobby Jindal: 2015 Jun 24 - 2015 Nov 17
Chris Christie: 2015 Jun 30 - 2016 Feb 11
Scott Walker: 2015 Jul 13 - 2015 Sep 21
John Kasich: 2015 Jul 21 -
Jim Gilmore: 2015 Jul 29 - 2016 Feb 12

Democratic:
Hillary Clinton: 2015 Apr 12 -
Bernie Sanders: 2015 Apr 30 -
Martin O'Malley: 2015 May 30 - 2016 Feb 1
Lincoln Chafee: 2015 June 3 - 2015 Oct 23
Jim Webb: 2015 Jul 2 - 2015 Oct 2
Lawrence Lessig: 2015 Sep 6 - 2015 Nov 8

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Kasich has announced he will make Cruz his VP.

Metaphor for the Cruz campaign

You misspelled RNC.

 

[bilby]

Kasich has announced he will make Cruz his VP.

That seems a little premature; there's a nomination and an election to win first, and he doesn't look like a chance of getting either. Perhaps merely 'running mate' for now, and 'VP' only if he does a Leicester City?

I wonder if I can bet $5 at 5000-1 against his presidency?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Holy wow! What does the RNC have in plan? Will they fund his run? Will they cancel the convention and just release a memo?

So much effort to stop Trump and they give up after a truce with Kasich.

Simply wow.

Trump, good news bad news. You won the nomination... likely. You can't erase stuff from the Internet.

I think they will - Fox News seems to be gung ho about him now. The RNC gains nothing if they don't support him at this point

Heard a Congressman on NPR all pro-Trump. The sound quality was impressive seeing how far up Trump's ass his head must of been.

You know what may be interesting and unprecedented. Usually once someone gets the nomination, the Republican candidate swings hard to the center. This time, I think the Republican Party itself will be the one pivoting. They campaigned harder against Trump than the Democrats did up to now. Now they seem to see the writing on the wall and are trying their best to salvage something here. Democrat analysts are outright giddy at this point. But I think we all have that small voice in the back of our head saying, "America re-elected W. It could be possible. May also be an embarrassing rout which will have Trumpers on the street claiming voter fraud. But it isn't impossible for the American people to be dumb enough to vote for a face."

Maybe Clinton will need PM Trudeau to do a photo op. That guy is so photogenic, should be able to swoon 5% of the vote alone with a photo op.

 

[George S]

Kasich has announced he will make Cruz his VP.

That seems a little premature; there's a nomination and an election to win first, and he doesn't look like a chance of getting either. Perhaps merely 'running mate' for now, and 'VP' only if he does a Leicester City?

I wonder if I can bet $5 at 5000-1 against his presidency?

I just checked. That happens to be exactly today's betting odds line: 5000-1 against. Bet $5000 (minimum bet at these odds) and get back $5001 if he loses. Bet $1 and get $5000 if he wins.

- - - Updated - - -

Hillary is 1:3 at the post with Trump 2:1.
In other words the smart money is on Hillary.

 

[Terrell]

That seems a little premature; there's a nomination and an election to win first, and he doesn't look like a chance of getting either. Perhaps merely 'running mate' for now, and 'VP' only if he does a Leicester City?

I wonder if I can bet $5 at 5000-1 against his presidency?

I just checked. That happens to be exactly today's betting odds line: 5000-1 against. Bet $5000 (minimum bet at these odds) and get back $5001 if he loses. Bet $1 and get $5000 if he wins.

- - - Updated - - -

Hillary is 1:3 at the post with Trump 2:1.
In other words the smart money is on Hillary.

I hope you're right about those odds, but I'd wager it's too early to rely on them. Things could change between now & November. For now I think we should wait & see.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I just checked. That happens to be exactly today's betting odds line: 5000-1 against. Bet $5000 (minimum bet at these odds) and get back $5001 if he loses. Bet $1 and get $5000 if he wins.

- - - Updated - - -

Hillary is 1:3 at the post with Trump 2:1.
In other words the smart money is on Hillary.

I hope you're right about those odds, but I'd wager it's too early to rely on them. Things could change between now & November. For now I think we should wait & see.

The talk is about the FBI investigation, where people seem to forget that Trump is being sued and that is going to court in early fall.

 

[Terrell]

I hope you're right about those odds, but I'd wager it's too early to rely on them. Things could change between now & November. For now I think we should wait & see.

The talk is about the FBI investigation, where people seem to forget that Trump is being sued and that is going to court in early fall.

Yeah, I forgot about Trump being sued, but that would matter as well. I'd like to see if those odds remain the same or are changed by to be determined future events. I think we'll have a much better handle on this when October rolls around, but I think Labor Day would be a good time to start keeping a close eye on any trends.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Trump can't possibly win. But he couldn't possibly win the Republican nomination. Trump swooned a bunch of people that were sick of being jacked off by the right wing, but never actually getting to the climax. Trump comes rolling in saying, you want to climax! I can make climaxing great again!

This isn't (shouldn't) work with the Independents and liberals. Sure, you have a few of the last remaining Democrats that should have become Republicans decades ago that will buy it, but Trump has to sell being a uniter. That is going to be hard. Very hard. Not impossible, but hard. He also has the issue of the woman card... which he played... already.

I think we'll see where things stand after the first debate. Trump is much like a Manziel. Kicking ass in College, partying like crazy, winning the Heisman. But he was playing in College, not the Pros. And once in the Pros, he was terribly exposed. I think Trump may be heading for a bad day against Clinton in a debate. He actually has to know something about something, like what the Nuclear Triad is. Cult of Personality got him this far. It will be hard for it to get him across the line. Attacking Clinton, saying her achievements were only because she was a woman isn't going to carry well with women (which is why I think Trump's VP will be a woman). But will women see right through that. I'm thinking 3 to 2 or 2 to 1 will.

 

[ideologyhunter]

The debates --- Mrs. C. better goddamn be on her game. None of this makes sense to me -- Trump isn't just formally objectionable on the issues of deception (Birtherism) and ignorance (one hundred off-the-cuff proposals), he's NAUSEATING. Someone a sane, balanced person wouldn't want to be in the same room with. Yet he's got a sizeable chunk of Americans mesmerized. Doesn't. Make. Sense. Are we really this dumb, as a country? I'm questioning the good I did as a teacher (31 years, and, yes, we studied propaganda and fact vs. opinion. Ye gods.)

 

[Tristan Scott]

There is talk of a republican shadow candidate in a third party run. Even though they can't say it publicly, many of the republican establishment feel the country would do better with Clinton than Trump, they also feel that a Trump presidency would be such a disaster that it could hurt the party in the future. Thirdly they think it would help down ticket candidates.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/plan-c-republican-establishment-chattering-about-a-third-party-run_us_57295dcbe4b016f378941d68

 

[fromderinside]

The debates --- Mrs. C. better goddamn be on her game.

Presidential debates are sponsored by non-artisan organizations like the League of Women Voters. There will be no cheering sections, no name calling, no unvetted charges. If one is attempted it will be vetted on the spot by further questioning and information sharing. They will be new and not entertainment.

My guess is that there will be statements that mikes will be turned off if inappropriate or personal comments are attempted.

The question becomes will Trump participate or will the networks give in. If the networks give in I plan to turn off my set during the debates. Their function in election is that of news not entertainment.

 

[Sarpedon]

It would be interesting to have a presidential debate sponsored by artisans. Can you imagine Trump and Clinton arguing over pottery?

 

[Tom Sawyer]

It would be interesting to have a presidential debate sponsored by artisans. Can you imagine Trump and Clinton arguing over pottery?

Well, it's not like it would have less substance than a regular presidential debate.

 

[blastula]

Woo hoo! Bernie 51% to Hillary's 49% with 31% of the vote in! Bernie might do it!

Bernie did it, 53.3% to 47.7%. Bernie got 39 pledged delegates and 0 superdelegates. Hillary got 29 pledged delegates and 7 superdelegates.

Bernie did it, Cruz got the headlines, Hillary got all of the inside the party operatives.

Bernie's the one saying that superdelegates should override the electorate and decide it for him.

 

[PyramidHead]

Bernie did it, 53.3% to 47.7%. Bernie got 39 pledged delegates and 0 superdelegates. Hillary got 29 pledged delegates and 7 superdelegates.

Bernie did it, Cruz got the headlines, Hillary got all of the inside the party operatives.

Bernie's the one saying that superdelegates should override the electorate and decide it for him.

Cite?

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Bernie's the one saying that superdelegates should override the electorate and decide it for him.

Cite?

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/2016/05/01/sanders-tries-sway-democratic-superdelegates/83795524/

So, he's not saying that they should override the will of the electorate, just that they should along with the candidate that their state chose and the ones from the states he won should be voting for him.

If that happened, he would go from being mathematically eliminated from the nomination to almost having a snowball's chance in hell of getting the nomination, which would be a big step up. At that point, he could realize that he misspoke when he said that the superdelegates should vote along with who their state voted for and come up with a different reason why more of Clinton's superdelegates should switch to him instead ... and also find a way to have the voters in the Democratic primaries be more interested in him so that he doesn't just straight-up lose by a large margin like he's doing now.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

From what I've seen on line, I think Sanders has a higher percentage of the pledged delegates than percent of the popular vote.