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US President 2016 - the Great Horse Race

So here we are. We have the GOP clearing the field and now prominent Republicans coming out saying they do not support Trump. The timing is notable, and if records are public, we may see that an establishment third party run may be underway. But it needs to start quick by getting on the ballots in 50 states. This seems almost impossible to do under the cover of darkness. But based on Paul Ryan's statement, the GOP has not given marching orders for Trump. And in general, the right wing media on the radio hasn't been falling over themselves with Trump. Which may mean they are looking at an "independent" runner. It would seem to be party suicide to do so, however.

Mixed signals it seems from the GOP.
 
So here we are. We have the GOP clearing the field and now prominent Republicans coming out saying they do not support Trump. The timing is notable, and if records are public, we may see that an establishment third party run may be underway. But it needs to start quick by getting on the ballots in 50 states. This seems almost impossible to do under the cover of darkness. But based on Paul Ryan's statement, the GOP has not given marching orders for Trump. And in general, the right wing media on the radio hasn't been falling over themselves with Trump. Which may mean they are looking at an "independent" runner. It would seem to be party suicide to do so, however.

Mixed signals it seems from the GOP.

Well, here's their dilemna. Most people aren't going to come out to the polls in order to vote for a Senator or a Congressman. There will be some who do that and some who come out and vote Clinton and a GOP downticket, but most people on the right who are turned off by Trump will just stay home and those who come out to cast an anti-Trump vote will likely vote Dem on everything else after six months of ads plastering how the GOP supports everything he's advocating.

On the Dem side, even if Sanders spends the time after the convention in a huff and doesn't want to play ball, he is, after all, only a discount Warren and she's all-in in exchange for the chance to lead a major left wing bloc in a Dem Senate, which is now a real possibility and most everyone who's behind him will follow her lead when (not if) she asks them to, so it's not like the left has a similar rift which will need to be dealt with.

If the GOP can get an independent on the top of the ticket who appeals to non-crazy right wingers, it will give more of those people an excuse to come out and vote and that could stem the bloodloss from the Senate down to the dog catchers. Given that Trump isn't going to be President anyways, it's not like splitting his vote would really affect anything.
 
So here we are. We have the GOP clearing the field and now prominent Republicans coming out saying they do not support Trump. The timing is notable, and if records are public, we may see that an establishment third party run may be underway. But it needs to start quick by getting on the ballots in 50 states. This seems almost impossible to do under the cover of darkness. But based on Paul Ryan's statement, the GOP has not given marching orders for Trump. And in general, the right wing media on the radio hasn't been falling over themselves with Trump. Which may mean they are looking at an "independent" runner. It would seem to be party suicide to do so, however.

Mixed signals it seems from the GOP.

Well, here's their dilemna. Most people aren't going to come out to the polls in order to vote for a Senator or a Congressman. There will be some who do that and some who come out and vote Clinton and a GOP downticket, but most people on the right who are turned off by Trump will just stay home and those who come out to cast an anti-Trump vote will likely vote Dem on everything else after six months of ads plastering how the GOP supports everything he's advocating.

On the Dem side, even if Sanders spends the time after the convention in a huff and doesn't want to play ball, he is, after all, only a discount Warren and she's all-in in exchange for the chance to lead a major left wing bloc in a Dem Senate, which is now a real possibility and most everyone who's behind him will follow her lead when (not if) she asks them to, so it's not like the left has a similar rift which will need to be dealt with.

If the GOP can get an independent on the top of the ticket who appeals to non-crazy right wingers, it will give more of those people an excuse to come out and vote and that could stem the bloodloss from the Senate down to the dog catchers. Given that Trump isn't going to be President anyways, it's not like splitting his vote would really affect anything.
Except Trump could tell his supporters to not vote for Republicans for Congress. Trump is fire. And the Republicans have no idea how to play with it. All the Democrats have to do is say "Hey look, he is fucking fire!"
 
So initial polls are out between Trump and Clinton. It doesn't look good. The big bad is North Carolina: Clinton 49 v Trump 37 (Civitas, small Republican pollster I think). This poll seems at odds with an Ohio poll which gives Clinton just a three point lead over Trump, 45 to 42 (PPP). The result may be an outlier, but if Clinton can poll in anything in NC that far above Trump, the election is over already, except in the corner of our mind that reminds us of '72 and '04.

Trump's big dream to take New York? Delusion more like it, that Trump thought the state was in play. New York, which is Clinton's third or fourth home state, polled 56 to 30 (Siena) for Clinton over Trump. The other major poll is California. Can Trump make headway against Clinton in the biggest state EV-wise? Clinton 56 v Trump 34 (SurveyUSA). Good news for Trump? He is crushing Clinton in West Virginia.
 
the election is over already
Honestly - I'm too nervous about extrapolating this strongly from the polls in this race, especially this early on.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/06/b...n-horse-race-is-over-and-journalism-lost.html
Is it? Trump was always polling well. It was a question of whether the dam would break. It didn't. But this isn't College anymore for Manziel where you could get away with everything. This is the pros now and Trump is facing a war machine in the Clinton camp.

The polls are early, but they tell us two things, Trump isn't invading Blue States and battleground states are favoring Clinton, and the margin may be big. We'll see what early ads do to Trump (who hasn't got much money to advertise with, unless the RNC helps, and there are mixed messages. Adelson says he'll support him... that's great company to keep!).
 
Honestly - I'm too nervous about extrapolating this strongly from the polls in this race, especially this early on.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/06/b...n-horse-race-is-over-and-journalism-lost.html
Is it? Trump was always polling well. It was a question of whether the dam would break. It didn't. But this isn't College anymore for Manziel where you could get away with everything. This is the pros now and Trump is facing a war machine in the Clinton camp.

The polls are early, but they tell us two things, Trump isn't invading Blue States and battleground states are favoring Clinton, and the margin may be big. We'll see what early ads do to Trump (who hasn't got much money to advertise with, unless the RNC helps, and there are mixed messages. Adelson says he'll support him... that's great company to keep!).

Ya, when Utah is in play there's not actually a competition. All of the GOP candidates wanted to damage Trump without offending or alienating his supporters, so it limited the weapons they had available. Clinton doesn't have that need for restraint and she wants a Democratic congress so she's not going to hold back and will beat Trump to the ground while tying the rest of the GOP to him. He's not in her league and she's going to crush him.
 
Is it? Trump was always polling well. It was a question of whether the dam would break. It didn't. But this isn't College anymore for Manziel where you could get away with everything. This is the pros now and Trump is facing a war machine in the Clinton camp.

The polls are early, but they tell us two things, Trump isn't invading Blue States and battleground states are favoring Clinton, and the margin may be big. We'll see what early ads do to Trump (who hasn't got much money to advertise with, unless the RNC helps, and there are mixed messages. Adelson says he'll support him... that's great company to keep!).

Ya, when Utah is in play there's not actually a competition. All of the GOP candidates wanted to damage Trump without offending or alienating his supporters, so it limited the weapons they had available. Clinton doesn't have that need for restraint and she wants a Democratic congress so she's not going to hold back and will beat Trump to the ground while tying the rest of the GOP to him. He's not in her league and she's going to crush him.
Should... she should. But Nixon won in '72 and W in '04, so...
 
Should... she should. But Nixon won in '72 and W in '04, so...

Yes, there is the concern and all the GOP guys were this dismissive of him last summer and we saw how that turned out. However, there just isn't a path to victory which both gets him much more than he has now and tones down the opposition to him. He's not going to just stop being crazy and even if he does, people will be seeing more of him saying all the crazy shit he's said up until now than they will any new, non-crazy stuff he might say (but he won't stop saying crazy stuff).
 
the election is over already

Honestly - I'm too nervous about extrapolating this strongly from the polls in this race, especially this early on.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/06/b...n-horse-race-is-over-and-journalism-lost.html

I do remember, way back when, Trump was laughed at, scorned, insulted, demeaned, degraded, and other similar acts by the GOP establishment. Now Trump is their candidate. It is up to the establishment GOP to realize that the voters who consider themselves Republican chose the non-establishment candidate. A divided GOP is lost. The current polls reflect this. (And, yes, Journalism, while they didn't quite lose, was played like a piano.)
 
Should... she should. But Nixon won in '72 and W in '04, so...

Yes, there is the concern and all the GOP guys were this dismissive of him last summer and we saw how that turned out. However, there just isn't a path to victory which both gets him much more than he has now and tones down the opposition to him. He's not going to just stop being crazy and even if he does, people will be seeing more of him saying all the crazy shit he's said up until now than they will any new, non-crazy stuff he might say (but he won't stop saying crazy stuff).
And if he does stop saying crazy stuff, all the crazy fuckers that love him now will lose interest and won't leave their trailer on election night.
 
Yes, there is the concern and all the GOP guys were this dismissive of him last summer and we saw how that turned out. However, there just isn't a path to victory which both gets him much more than he has now and tones down the opposition to him. He's not going to just stop being crazy and even if he does, people will be seeing more of him saying all the crazy shit he's said up until now than they will any new, non-crazy stuff he might say (but he won't stop saying crazy stuff).
And if he does stop saying crazy stuff, all the crazy fuckers that love him now will lose interest and won't leave their trailer on election night.

For instance, Wolf Blitzer tricked Trump into saying he wanted to raise the minimum wage (from Limbaugh).
 
When you overplay the good reasons why Trump won't win and underplay the reasons why he could and couple that with a dislike of him, you become surprised when things don't turn out as expected.
 
And if he does stop saying crazy stuff, all the crazy fuckers that love him now will lose interest and won't leave their trailer on election night.

Of all the charges you could hurl at Trump supporters, this is probably the most silly. The crowd who were dog-whistled for the last few decades by the Rs aren't exactly lacking the ability to understand permanence.

Too read up on the support he's received in the Conservative Xtian community much to the exasperation of the talk-radio show hosts. NPR had a pretty good podcast about this with actual audio, and this article also sums up the mindset of such supporters.

http://www.npr.org/2016/03/06/46937...ill-baffled-over-evangelical-trump-supporters

Many people say in fact that they're puzzled about the appeal of Donald Trump, especially to professing Christians. The fact is, he has racked up many votes and endorsements from leaders. For example, on Super Tuesday, every state that Trump won, he received the majority of the evangelical vote. What do you think the appeal is?

I'm curious why we're giving him a free pass on this behavior. Typically, evangelicals have tried to hold our leaders up, if they call themselves Christians, to a standard consistent with the faith and then of course consistent with whatever office they hold. But it seems like we're more than willing to give Mr. Trump a free pass. The classic one was in Iowa when he was asked, "Do you ever ask for forgiveness of sins?" and he said, "No, I don't need to." I nearly fell out of my chair. That's right at the heart and core of the Christian faith, that we're all sinners, we all need forgiveness of sins. I do not have an answer for your question. I've asked people who support Mr. Trump, "How do you reconcile the disconnect between what he claims to be and what he says?" ... I'm as baffled as anyone as to why. ...

Let's not overestimate anyone's love for Clinton either - independents aren't particularly fond of her and this will very much be an election which is driven by the anti-vote. A ten percentage point swing in polls has Trump winning.
 
" It is remarkable that a country that is so good at business, science, the arts and just about everything else can be so bad at politics. There 318 million Americans, including many of the worlds most creative and brilliant people: the US electorate ought to be spoiled for choice when it comes to choosing its president.
Yet from this immense talent pool, the American political system has managed to narrow the race down to two supremely flawed human beings, neither of whom remotely deserves to be in the White House.
On the one hand we have Hillary, an uninspiring, scandal-ridden candidate whose left-wing policies would destroy what is left of US exceptionalism; on the other is Trump, a demagogue who specialises in whipping up hate and threatening trade wars.
It really is a depressing choice between two dinosaurs seemingly precipitating their country's own demise.
The polling shows Hillary easily defeating Trump. The demographics are against him: it is almost impossible for a Republican to win without Hispanics, and he has angered many of them with his sickening rhetoric. But he has already started to moderate his language and will no doubt jettison some of his most deranged and offensive policies.
Don't for a minute think she'll be anything like her husband's administration, because since then the Democrats have veered to the left.
Centrist policies have now flown the coop in the Democratic Party.
America is a very special nation but I'm glad I'm not a US citizin and won't be asked to choose between these two appalling candidates.
There will be no good outcome, so it is time for the world, as well as America itself, to begin preparing for four years of purgatory."

Allister Heath, Telegraph Media Group
 
" It is remarkable that a country that is so good at business, science, the arts and just about everything else can be so bad at politics. There 318 million Americans, including many of the worlds most creative and brilliant people: the US electorate ought to be spoiled for choice when it comes to choosing its president.
Yet from this immense talent pool, the American political system has managed to narrow the race down to two supremely flawed human beings, neither of whom remotely deserves to be in the White House.
On the one hand we have Hillary, an uninspiring, scandal-ridden candidate whose left-wing policies would destroy what is left of US exceptionalism; on the other is Trump, a demagogue who specialises in whipping up hate and threatening trade wars.
It really is a depressing choice between two dinosaurs seemingly precipitating their country's own demise.
The polling shows Hillary easily defeating Trump. The demographics are against him: it is almost impossible for a Republican to win without Hispanics, and he has angered many of them with his sickening rhetoric. But he has already started to moderate his language and will no doubt jettison some of his most deranged and offensive policies.
Don't for a minute think she'll be anything like her husband's administration, because since then the Democrats have veered to the left.
Centrist policies have now flown the coop in the Democratic Party.
America is a very special nation but I'm glad I'm not a US citizin and won't be asked to choose between these two appalling candidates.
There will be no good outcome, so it is time for the world, as well as America itself, to begin preparing for four years of purgatory."

Allister Heath, Telegraph Media Group

Apparently we can add "centrist" and "left-wing" to the list of words that have distinct meanings in US and UK (or UK inspired) English...
 
Hillary Clinton a left-winger? I thought that Allister Heath would be jumping for joy at how she has been pandering to Wall Street.
 
One can pander to Wall St and still lean left can't they?

One can also eat pork and be a Jew or Muslim - but I certainly wouldn't make a claim that one of these people are hard-liners.

Heath's list of issues is as long as his forehead, but one is left wondering what he actually advocates as a response.
 
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