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US President 2016 - the Great Horse Race

Interesting. Latino registrations are booming at this point. To assume a deflated Hispanic turnout is silly. And while Obama isn't running, Clinton is most popular among African Americans. They will likely turn out for her.
 
I disagree considerably with your assessment of libertarians.

A libertarian to a considerable degree agrees with a true Republican (not a neo-con!) on economic matters and with a Democrat on non-financial social matters.

Furthermore, you don't need to be a druggie to see that the drug war causes far more harm than the drugs.

I do agree the civil suit approach to things is nuts.

I have to concede that Libertarian positions are much more pie in the sky and unrealistic than my simplistic Republicans who do drugs conveyed. Much more unrealistic than the Republicans' positions.
Can someone explain to me what a "True Republican" is?
 
I disagree considerably with your assessment of libertarians.

A libertarian to a considerable degree agrees with a true Republican (not a neo-con!) on economic matters and with a Democrat on non-financial social matters.

Furthermore, you don't need to be a druggie to see that the drug war causes far more harm than the drugs.

I do agree the civil suit approach to things is nuts.

I have to concede that Libertarian positions are much more pie in the sky and unrealistic than my simplistic Republicans who do drugs conveyed. Much more unrealistic than the Republicans' positions.

Actually your "Republicans who do drugs" was even more simplistic than you know.

There are Libertarians who never do drugs yet still want them legalized.

There are Republicans who do drugs yet still want them forbidden. They just consider themselves personally above such laws, that such laws are meant for the masses. It is sort of a Vanguard Proletariat versus Lumpen Proletariat viewpoint, and they view themselves in the elite that the laws don't apply to.

That's in addition to ALL the other issues that your statement ignores.

You might as well say that Libertarians are Democrats who like money.
 
Oh, I read about the Quinnipac poll that showed Trump ahead: It unreasonably assumed a lower turnout among minorities, thus skewing the results towards Trump.

They assumed, contrary to evidence, that the electorate would be 5% whiter than it was last time around, thus giving a net +3% to Trump. This basically assumes blacks will sit out because there's no black person on the ballot (In reality, black voter turnout has been steadily increasing since hitting a low in 1996, in other words, this trend started long before Obama came to the scene, and thus it is silly to think his leaving will cause it to suddenly reverse) and that Hispanics won't turn out in droves to vote against Trump (which contradicts every bit of evidence available; around the country the numbers hispanics becoming citizens and registering to vote have vastly increased). It also flies in the face of the fact that populations are slowly but surely shifting away from whiteness. So this can be regarded as a republican junk poll, just like so many that convinced Romney he was going to win.

Ya, but polls like that got us things like the Karl Rove meltdown on Fox during the last election when he just couldn't accept that Romney was losing and he kept talking about the demographics of the places which still had numbers to come in and the girl there said to him "Are you sure that's not just something you say as a Republican to make you feel better?". That was so fucking funny.

If there are poorly done polls which make it look like Trump has a chance, they will have the dual effect of both stopping the Dems from getting complacent and increasing the (what is already guaranteed to be) extremely hilarious Republican meltdown on election night.
 
Oh, I read about the Quinnipac poll that showed Trump ahead: It unreasonably assumed a lower turnout among minorities, thus skewing the results towards Trump.

They assumed, contrary to evidence, that the electorate would be 5% whiter than it was last time around, thus giving a net +3% to Trump. This basically assumes blacks will sit out because there's no black person on the ballot (In reality, black voter turnout has been steadily increasing since hitting a low in 1996, in other words, this trend started long before Obama came to the scene, and thus it is silly to think his leaving will cause it to suddenly reverse) and that Hispanics won't turn out in droves to vote against Trump (which contradicts every bit of evidence available; around the country the numbers hispanics becoming citizens and registering to vote have vastly increased). It also flies in the face of the fact that populations are slowly but surely shifting away from whiteness. So this can be regarded as a republican junk poll, just like so many that convinced Romney he was going to win.

Ya, but polls like that got us things like the Karl Rove meltdown on Fox during the last election when he just couldn't accept that Romney was losing and he kept talking about the demographics of the places which still had numbers to come in and the girl there said to him "Are you sure that's not just something you say as a Republican to make you feel better?". That was so fucking funny.

If there are poorly done polls which make it look like Trump has a chance, they will have the dual effect of both stopping the Dems from getting complacent and increasing the (what is already guaranteed to be) extremely hilarious Republican meltdown on election night.

Yeah, that was Megyn Kelly. It would be priceless if she had something like that to say about Trump.
 
Meanwhile in Bubble World, people are calling in to the AM Radio folks demanding a conservative be on the ticket to anchor Donald Trump.

This is incredible, one half of the base got the crazy ass mf'er, but now the other half of the base wants their type of mf'er... names included Santorum and... well... yes... Ben fucking Carson.
 
Meanwhile in primary world, Sanders defeated Clinton in West Virginia. Check that, West Virginia doesn't like Hillary Clinton.

Trump won West Virginia and Nebraska! Of note, or maybe not, Trump won 61.4% of the vote in Nebraska. Cruz won 18% and Kasich 11%. Who won the other 10%? Regardless, is the 39% protest voting or trying to make a voice for a VP nod?

And Clinton is making a shift to start absorbing Sanders' supporters.
article said:
The Medicare program covers Americans once they reach 65. Beneficiaries pay premiums to help cover the cost of their coverage, but the government pays the bulk of the bill. Mrs. Clinton’s suggestion was that perhaps younger Americans, “people 55 or 50 and up,” could voluntarily pay to join the program.
It is a National Health Care system, but it is a notable adjustment.
 
I have to concede that Libertarian positions are much more pie in the sky and unrealistic than my simplistic Republicans who do drugs conveyed. Much more unrealistic than the Republicans' positions.

You don't have to make illegal drugs legal in order to end the drug wars. There are very good reasons why these drugs are illegal. Addiction is a disease. We shouldn't be encouraging a disease, we should be treating it. And not by sending the sick to prison either.

About the most addictive drug is tobacco. It's also the deadliest to it's users. Yet it's legal. Addiction isn't the reason.

Their economic policies depend entirely on the very unlikely existence of the self-regulating, self-organizing free market. We have more than six thousand years of evidence that this free market can't exist. We have zero evidence that it can. *

No pure economic system works.

They are proposing to institute a foreign policy based on isolationism and presumably a much weakened military. They will rely on the mutual benefits of free trade to guarantee peace through the world. This is so delusional it is hard to know where to start listing the reasons that it won't work.

Here I agree.

They don't want to legislate morality. But which of our criminal laws aren't based on morals? Thou shall not kill. Or steal. Etc.

Morality: laws involving behavior by consenting adults. Thou shalt not kill is based on an unwilling victim.

They want to replace before the fact, nationwide regulations with after the fact civil lawsuits that will result in different requirements in different jurisdictions. ***

I've already called this aspect of their position nuts.

It is largely meaningless to support social matters on a non-financial basis. What does it mean, that Libertarians will be very distressed watching children starve or to die from inadequate health care but will do nothing because it costs something? ***

A liberal doesn't care if gays marry. A conservative says they shouldn't be allowed to. That's a liberal, non-financial position.

They support the economic suicide of re-instituting the gold standard. A monetary system that has always required a considerable amount of national government regulation to be put into place and to keep in place. They want to accomplish this by relying on the goodwill of all involved to put in in place and to prevent bad behavior, instead of government regulation. ***

Agreed, the only merit of a gold standard is to act as a check on government abuse of the printing press.

They may or may not support the idea of transcendental property. The current 5 to 6 trillion dollars of such property that currently exist, ideas represented in patents, trademarks and copyrights. Their ideology doesn't point the way to decide if these things have to disappear or not.

So why should we think they want to make it disappear?

They want to eliminate Social Security and to leave its functions to private enterprise but it is inconceivable that any private insurance company would be able to write policies to replace Social Security. Its risks are too high for any private company to take on. For example, what would happen to a private company if a cure for cancer or heart disease extends the lifetime of seniors by five years? ***

And lifetime annuities don't exist now?

- - - Updated - - -

I have to concede that Libertarian positions are much more pie in the sky and unrealistic than my simplistic Republicans who do drugs conveyed. Much more unrealistic than the Republicans' positions.
Can someone explain to me what a "True Republican" is?

A true Republican is a Republican from before the neo-con/religious-right takeover.
 
Loren Pechtel;287273[COLOR=silver said:
][/COLOR]
I have to concede that Libertarian positions are much more pie in the sky and unrealistic than my simplistic Republicans who do drugs conveyed. Much more unrealistic than the Republicans' positions.
Can someone explain to me what a "True Republican" is?

A true Republican is a Republican from before the neo-con/religious-right takeover.
So they went extinct around the time of the Dodo.
 
I don't get it.

Republicans like business subsidies, Libertarians don't.
Republicans like policing the world, Libertarians don't.
Republicans like invading other countries, Libertarians don't.
Republicans oppose gay marriage, Libertarians don't.
Republicans want religious moral laws, Libertarians don't.
Republicans want to ban immorality, Libertarians don't.
Republicans like protective tariffs, Libertarians don't.

And all you can think of is drugs?

If you look at the Libertarian front-runner, he appears to disagree with you.

http://www.ontheissues.org/Gary_Johnson.htm

For one thing he ***LOVES** him some corporate subsidies in the form of complete tax relief. If you earn money for your home lifestyle by cleaning toilets, pay taxes! But if you earn money for your corporate lifestyle, Freeeeee! Give government mandated demand to private corporations - freeee customers! (prison, school)

For religious moral laws, he's all for saying religionists can decline birth control coverage to their employees. Woot!


It looks an awful lot like the republicans. Not exactly like, but many of the bad parts.

I have to conclude that Libertarians don't have an interest in economics beyond the wildly unrealistic belief that the self-regulating free market can exist and will exist if only we do away with the national government.

Their rants against government regulations is highly abstract, as evidenced by their inability to name any of the job killing regulations that they say that are hurting the current economy. I can name some, for example zoning regulations that boost housing costs, but they don't seem to be very happy with my help.
 
I have to concede that Libertarian positions are much more pie in the sky and unrealistic than my simplistic Republicans who do drugs conveyed. Much more unrealistic than the Republicans' positions.

Actually your "Republicans who do drugs" was even more simplistic than you know.

There are Libertarians who never do drugs yet still want them legalized.

There are Republicans who do drugs yet still want them forbidden. They just consider themselves personally above such laws, that such laws are meant for the masses. It is sort of a Vanguard Proletariat versus Lumpen Proletariat viewpoint, and they view themselves in the elite that the laws don't apply to.

That's in addition to ALL the other issues that your statement ignores.

You might as well say that Libertarians are Democrats who like money.

You do have to try to read more than one line out of my posts. My reply to Loren contained much more than that single statement.

I was joking when I said that Libertarians are Republicans who do drugs. Seriously they are much worse than the Republicans or the Democrats. At least those two parties have at least a small connection to reality. There is not even a remote connection to reality in any of the Libertarian positions.

For example, illegal drugs are illegal because they are dangerous. Cocaine and heroin are extremely addictive and long term use produces serious health risks. While I think that imprisoning drug addicts is counter productive, I don't support legalizing these drugs.

I have read Libertarians that want to eliminate the requirement for a prescriptions for the drugs that currently require them. This is insane to me but is a logical extension of the same faulty reasoning that thinks that Schedule I & II drugs should be legal.
 
Loren Pechtel;287273[COLOR=silver said:
][/COLOR]
I have to concede that Libertarian positions are much more pie in the sky and unrealistic than my simplistic Republicans who do drugs conveyed. Much more unrealistic than the Republicans' positions.
Can someone explain to me what a "True Republican" is?

A true Republican is a Republican from before the neo-con/religious-right takeover.
So they went extinct around the time of the Dodo.

I don't think they're extinct, just hidden under the neo-cons. Many now vote for the lesser evil, the Democrats.
 
Read wikipedia on Libertarians. There are lots of different flavors of Libertarian, left Libertarian, right Libertarians, socialist Libertarians, anarchists and probably more American style Libertarianism seems more lassez faire Right variety of Libertarian, with lots of variations. The idea that there is Libertarian, plain and simple is not really useful an idea.
 
Read wikipedia on Libertarians. There are lots of different flavors of Libertarian, left Libertarian, right Libertarians, socialist Libertarians, anarchists and probably more American style Libertarianism seems more lassez faire Right variety of Libertarian, with lots of variations. The idea that there is Libertarian, plain and simple is not really useful an idea.
Is this not true of any political/ideological labeling?It is all BS.
 
Loren Pechtel;287273[COLOR=silver said:
][/COLOR]
I have to concede that Libertarian positions are much more pie in the sky and unrealistic than my simplistic Republicans who do drugs conveyed. Much more unrealistic than the Republicans' positions.
Can someone explain to me what a "True Republican" is?

A true Republican is a Republican from before the neo-con/religious-right takeover.
So they went extinct around the time of the Dodo.

I don't think they're extinct, just hidden under the neo-cons. Many now vote for the lesser evil, the Democrats.
Yup, that 45 to 51% of Republicans that voted for W, McCain, and Romney aren't even Republicans.
 
<snip ... pretty much agree with these points>​

They support the economic suicide of re-instituting the gold standard. A monetary system that has always required a considerable amount of national government regulation to be put into place and to keep in place. They want to accomplish this by relying on the goodwill of all involved to put in in place and to prevent bad behavior, instead of government regulation. ***

Agreed, the only merit of a gold standard is to act as a check on government abuse of the printing press.

Abuse of the printing press is so rare that providing a check on it is not worth the pain of the gold standard constraining the growth of the economy.

They may or may not support the idea of transcendental property. The current 5 to 6 trillion dollars of such property that currently exist, ideas represented in patents, trademarks and copyrights. Their ideology doesn't point the way to decide if these things have to disappear or not.

So why should we think they want to make it disappear?

Some further explanation is required. Libertarians believe in strong property rights. (Any who don't believe in them don't understand the philosophy very well at all.) Most believe that the concept of the government owning property is not acceptable, that only individuals and private companies should own property.

Intellectual property is government created property. The government defines what is and what isn't intellectual property. And the government defines how long it exists. Patents expire and the property no longer exists.

For this reason about half of the Libertarians don't believe that intellectual property should exist at all. It is a logical extension of their philosophy about what the role of government should be in society.

But this runs up against the interests of the wealthy who support the Austrian* economics schools in the US. So this line of reasoning and the conflict that arises from it within the Austrian/Libertarian economics schools are suppressed for fear of losing this financial support.

And it is why those who believe that Austrian/Libertarian economics is completely bat shit crazy constantly bring up this conflict.

* Austrian economics is the basis of the Libertarian economics philosophy.

They want to eliminate Social Security and to leave its functions to private enterprise but it is inconceivable that any private insurance company would be able to write policies to replace Social Security. Its risks are too high for any private company to take on. For example, what would happen to a private company if a cure for cancer or heart disease extends the lifetime of seniors by five years? ***

And lifetime annuities don't exist now?

Yes, they exist now. But they are based on morbidity, how long the average person is expected to live from the age that the annuity is issued to an individual. If there is some increase in the lifetime of the average person after the age of 65 the insurance companies would have to pay annuity payments for this extra time. All that I am proposing is that a sudden increase in the life expectancy after 65 by some miracle drug would bankrupt the insurance companies. This is in the realm of possibilities.

- - - Updated - - -

I have to concede that Libertarian positions are much more pie in the sky and unrealistic than my simplistic Republicans who do drugs conveyed. Much more unrealistic than the Republicans' positions.
Can someone explain to me what a "True Republican" is?

A true Republican is a Republican from before the neo-con/religious-right takeover.

A True Republican™ is a moderate. Just like a True Democrat™.

No one should take any pride in being called a conservative or a liberal. We have to return to the days when we ignored self-described conservatives and liberals, when we considered extremists not to be worthy of consideration.

If we go back to all of us being moderates, which is what we all are really, then we can't be called out to man the barricades against one another under different flags, liberal or conservative. If we are all moderates we have to concede that other moderates have points that are worthy of consideration. That if we all moderates that there aren't an entire list of beliefs that we have to assume in order to earn our political label. That we actually have to listen to what people say and that we can't assume what they believe because we all are moderates.

And that we all are progressives. We all believe in progress. That we just sometimes disagree on what constitutes progress or how fast progress should proceed.
 
SimpleDon, I applaud your dreams. Unfortunately we live in a nation where one of the parties has a non-negligible wing of elected Representatives that wanted to make the US default on its debt. And this same party has passed legislation repeatedly to try and repeal a health care bill.

Don't look at progressives as being the problem with the hyperpartisan nature of the Republican Party.
 
<snip ... pretty much agree with these points>​



Agreed, the only merit of a gold standard is to act as a check on government abuse of the printing press.

Abuse of the printing press is so rare that providing a check on it is not worth the pain of the gold standard constraining the growth of the economy.

I was agreeing with you. You control printing press abuse from the ballot box, not the gold standard. If you can't control it with the ballot box you don't have a democracy in the first place.

They may or may not support the idea of transcendental property. The current 5 to 6 trillion dollars of such property that currently exist, ideas represented in patents, trademarks and copyrights. Their ideology doesn't point the way to decide if these things have to disappear or not.

So why should we think they want to make it disappear?

Some further explanation is required. Libertarians believe in strong property rights. (Any who don't believe in them don't understand the philosophy very well at all.) Most believe that the concept of the government owning property is not acceptable, that only individuals and private companies should own property.

Intellectual property is government created property. The government defines what is and what isn't intellectual property. And the government defines how long it exists. Patents expire and the property no longer exists.

For this reason about half of the Libertarians don't believe that intellectual property should exist at all. It is a logical extension of their philosophy about what the role of government should be in society.

That's not a position I've run into before.

They want to eliminate Social Security and to leave its functions to private enterprise but it is inconceivable that any private insurance company would be able to write policies to replace Social Security. Its risks are too high for any private company to take on. For example, what would happen to a private company if a cure for cancer or heart disease extends the lifetime of seniors by five years? ***

And lifetime annuities don't exist now?

Yes, they exist now. But they are based on morbidity, how long the average person is expected to live from the age that the annuity is issued to an individual. If there is some increase in the lifetime of the average person after the age of 65 the insurance companies would have to pay annuity payments for this extra time. All that I am proposing is that a sudden increase in the life expectancy after 65 by some miracle drug would bankrupt the insurance companies. This is in the realm of possibilities.

The point is that Social Security is really just a glorified lifetime annuity.
 
Meanwhile in "It is raining shit out there", right wing sources are indicating two of the front runners for VP with Trump are Newt Gingrich and Rick Scott.

Newt Gingrich is a newcomer to DC. So we don't know much about him. What we do know is it would be the oldest ticket in the history of the United States since the Wright Brothers ran in 2004.

Rick Scott is currently the governor of Florida. Selecting Scott could be a huge pick up for Trump. Scott could very well be the keystone in developing an alternative to the ACA which Trump promises to repeal (because Presidents can repeal legislation) due his incredible knowledge of Medicare that helped his company defraud the Federal Government of billions of dollars. The one thing dogging Scott is that his political experience is limited to being Governor of one of the dumbest states in the country. Bill Clinton was able to get across that threshold, however.
 
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