• Welcome to the new Internet Infidels Discussion Board, formerly Talk Freethought.

US President 2016 - the Great Horse Race

Sanders is not a real Democrat.
Trump is not a real Republican.

Now Johnson is not a real Libertarian.

Humph.
 
Says someone who favors the Superdelegate-ridden Democratic Party.
You are the one whining about the Libertarian party nominating people who are not "ideological libertarians", not me. I didn't know you favored the Democratic Party - wouldn't that make you less than an ideological liberatarian?

Gee, most people, those for whom speech is their native tongue, might have noticed that was a sarcastic comeback to someone else. Not me comparing myself or my ideology or my party to the Democratic Party.
 
Nation? Far beyond that. There will be world wide consequences. Hundreds of millions will feel at least some ripple of an impact from him once he gets in and mixes things up.
We are already viewed as a nation of fools,why not elect a fool?

I can only do so much. I have the charism-backed talent to create small miracles, but even with all my power and reach, I can't do much more than stir up a fuss when it comes to this kind of stuff. We have options, and with no creative viability to sneak in unorthodox options, the American people will either vote or not, and if we're going to, Trump is the better option.

The fact he says some off the wall things might make us question whether he can lead the nation, but I don't think the things he says answers the question. With him it's a gamble, and he will make some changes, and they won't be insignificant. Some will be delighted, and some, well, not so much.
 
We are already viewed as a nation of fools,why not elect a fool?

I can only do so much. I have the charism-backed talent to create small miracles, but even with all my power and reach, I can't do much more than stir up a fuss when it comes to this kind of stuff. We have options, and with no creative viability to sneak in unorthodox options, the American people will either vote or not, and if we're going to, Trump is the better option.

The fact he says some off the wall things might make us question whether he can lead the nation, but I don't think the things he says answers the question. With him it's a gamble, and he will make some changes, and they won't be insignificant. Some will be delighted, and some, well, not so much.
Trump is a gamble much in the sense that buying a Powerball ticket is gambling.

His manager is saying they want a VP who can do some of the stuff Trump doesn't want to do as President. This implies he doesn't want the job!
 
You are the one whining about the Libertarian party nominating people who are not "ideological libertarians", not me. I didn't know you favored the Democratic Party - wouldn't that make you less than an ideological liberatarian?

Gee, most people, those for whom speech is their native tongue, might have noticed that was a sarcastic comeback to someone else. Not me comparing myself or my ideology or my party to the Democratic Party.
Most people for whom speech is their native tongue would have realized my comment was a sarcastic comeback to you.

In your view, who should the Libertarian Party have picked for their candidate?
 
Isn't the libertarian party even having a candidate in the first place somewhat antithetical to the entire notion of libertarianism? I mean, not real libertarianism, of course, but the 86,534 most common versions of the philosophy.
 
In your view, who should the Libertarian Party have picked for their candidate?

I really dislike the last few cycles where we've become (and no we weren't always) a place for disaffected Republicans. Johnson was a good Republican, but a good Republican isn't the same as a good Libertarian.

Isn't the libertarian party even having a candidate in the first place somewhat antithetical to the entire notion of libertarianism? I mean, not real libertarianism, of course, but the 86,534 most common versions of the philosophy.

No, and 2 most common version: the board version and the actual version, the difference between the two making people on this board think there are many many versions.
 
I really dislike the last few cycles where we've become (and no we weren't always) a place for disaffected Republicans. Johnson was a good Republican, but a good Republican isn't the same as a good Libertarian.
I understand that. I asked "In your view, who should the Libertarian Party have picked for their candidate?" not, who shouldn't have been picked.
 
In 2012, the Libertarians got 1% of the vote in the presidential election. Basically, it doesn't matter who they choose. Their day dreamy idea of how to govern isn't going to ever be popular. Libertarians are kooks.
 
In 2012, the Libertarians got 1% of the vote in the presidential election. Basically, it doesn't matter who they choose. Their day dreamy idea of how to govern isn't going to ever be popular. Libertarians are kooks.

Well to be fair, their idea of how to govern is: Don't.
 
In 2012, the Libertarians got 1% of the vote in the presidential election. Basically, it doesn't matter who they choose. Their day dreamy idea of how to govern isn't going to ever be popular. Libertarians are kooks.

Well to be fair, their idea of how to govern is: Don't.
Nah, they just believe in a much more minimalist state involvement in life than most people. I happen to think much of it is based on naivete or a rather unrealistic view of human behavior.
 
Ranked Choice Poll of GOP Voters Yields Insights - FairVote a.k.a. Instant Runoff Voting or Alternative Voting
To address the plurality problem, we recently conducted a ranked choice poll in partnership with the College of William and Mary as well as Yougov, to demonstrate how ranking candidates provides voters with more meaningful choices and pollsters with more accurate information about the shape of the race. It allows us to simulate a national GOP primary using ranked choice voting (RCV).

It had some interesting results.

Trump got 37% of the first choices, but only 10% of the second choices and 6% of the third choices. This decline slowly continued to about 2% or 3% until the last one, where it jumped up to 22%. So Republican voters either love him or hate him.

Ted Cruz won in second choices at 20% and Ben Carson in third choices at 16%.

The page also has an instant-runoff vote count on the poll. The number is the round number with 0 being initial, and the loser of each round has ()'s.
  • 0: Bush 4.88% Carson 7.37% Christie 3.12% Cruz 21.50% Fiorina 3.01% Huckabee 2.18% Kasich 3.43% Paul 5.82% Rubio 12.98% (Santorum 0.93%) Trump 34.79%
  • 1: Bush 4.88% Carson 7.58% Christie 3.22% Cruz 21.60% Fiorina 3.12% (Huckabee 2.39%) Kasich 3.53% Paul 5.92% Rubio 12.98% Trump 34.79%
  • 2: Bush 4.98% Carson 8.31% Christie 3.43% Cruz 21.91% (Fiorina 3.22%) Kasich 3.53% Paul 6.44% Rubio 13.19% Trump 34.99%
  • 3: Bush 5.50% Carson 9.03% (Christie 3.53%) Cruz 22.33% Kasich 3.63% Paul 6.65% Rubio 14.02% Trump 35.31%
  • 4: Bush 6.44% Carson 9.25% Cruz 22.56% (Kasich 4.05%) Paul 6.96% Rubio 14.86% Trump 35.86%
  • 5: Bush 7.50% Carson 9.48% Cruz 22.92% (Paul 7.50%) Rubio 16.15% Trump 36.46%
  • 6: (Bush 8.66%) Carson 10.65% Cruz 24.74% Rubio 18.06% Trump 37.89%
  • 7: (Carson 12.46%) Cruz 26.39% Rubio 21.57% Trump 39.58%
  • 8: Cruz 31.65% (Rubio 25.45%) Trump 42.90%
  • 9: Cruz 50.68% (Trump 49.32%)
So Ted Cruz barely wins.

- - - Updated - - -

A neuroscientist explains: Trump has a mental disorder that makes him a dangerous world leader
According to a number of top U.S. psychologists, like Harvard professor and researcher Howard Gardner, Donald Trump is a “textbook” narcissist. In fact, he fits the profile so well that clinical psychologist George Simon told Vanity Fair, “He’s so classic that I’m archiving video clips of him to use in workshops.” ...

What is it exactly that makes someone a certifiable narcissist and not simply a person who has a healthy amount of confidence and a burning desire to achieve great goals? According to the Mayo Clinic, narcissistic personality disorder is “a mental disorder in which people have an inflated sense of their own importance, a deep need for admiration and a lack of empathy for others.”
 
It doesn't take an expert to realize that Trump has obvious symptoms of narcissistic personality disorder, although I would add that he may also suffer from mania. Normal people do not survive on only a few hours of sleep a night. From what I've read about Trump's late night behavior, it appears as if he gets very little sleep. He may be able to function, but he certainly is not stable enough to be president of the US. His supporters don't seem to care that he's not making sense, constantly contradicts himself, ands knows very little about government policy. That's the problem.
 
Ranked Choice Poll of GOP Voters Yields Insights - FairVote a.k.a. Instant Runoff Voting or Alternative Voting


It had some interesting results.

Trump got 37% of the first choices, but only 10% of the second choices and 6% of the third choices. This decline slowly continued to about 2% or 3% until the last one, where it jumped up to 22%. So Republican voters either love him or hate him.

Ted Cruz won in second choices at 20% and Ben Carson in third choices at 16%.

The page also has an instant-runoff vote count on the poll. The number is the round number with 0 being initial, and the loser of each round has ()'s.
  • 0: Bush 4.88% Carson 7.37% Christie 3.12% Cruz 21.50% Fiorina 3.01% Huckabee 2.18% Kasich 3.43% Paul 5.82% Rubio 12.98% (Santorum 0.93%) Trump 34.79%
  • 1: Bush 4.88% Carson 7.58% Christie 3.22% Cruz 21.60% Fiorina 3.12% (Huckabee 2.39%) Kasich 3.53% Paul 5.92% Rubio 12.98% Trump 34.79%
  • 2: Bush 4.98% Carson 8.31% Christie 3.43% Cruz 21.91% (Fiorina 3.22%) Kasich 3.53% Paul 6.44% Rubio 13.19% Trump 34.99%
  • 3: Bush 5.50% Carson 9.03% (Christie 3.53%) Cruz 22.33% Kasich 3.63% Paul 6.65% Rubio 14.02% Trump 35.31%
  • 4: Bush 6.44% Carson 9.25% Cruz 22.56% (Kasich 4.05%) Paul 6.96% Rubio 14.86% Trump 35.86%
  • 5: Bush 7.50% Carson 9.48% Cruz 22.92% (Paul 7.50%) Rubio 16.15% Trump 36.46%
  • 6: (Bush 8.66%) Carson 10.65% Cruz 24.74% Rubio 18.06% Trump 37.89%
  • 7: (Carson 12.46%) Cruz 26.39% Rubio 21.57% Trump 39.58%
  • 8: Cruz 31.65% (Rubio 25.45%) Trump 42.90%
  • 9: Cruz 50.68% (Trump 49.32%)
So Ted Cruz barely wins.

That's interesting data. I made it into a graph so I could better visualize whose votes were moving where.

instant runoff GOP1.jpg

First question: whether "let's figure out who the majority of you can tolerate" is a good election scheme? It seems like it is, but it would be edifying to hear other opinions.

Then it was interesting to see that basically, no one will choose Trump UNTIL the only other choice is Cruz.
Which is kinda reassuring about humanity, isn't it?

Wow, what a pickle the GOP finds themselves in!
 

Attachments

  • instant runoff GOP.jpg
    instant runoff GOP.jpg
    29.6 KB · Views: 3
Back
Top Bottom