Cheerful Charlie
Contributor
http://www.vox.com/2016/8/11/12426346/trump-polls-today
We are two weeks out from the final day of the Democratic convention. And according to historical research by political scientists Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezien, this is usually the time that the convention fog finally lifts and the polls become more predictive.
"Although the convention season is the time for multiple bounces in the polls, one party ends up with an advantage when the dust clears. And this gain is a net convention bump rather than a bounce," Erikson and Wlezien write in their book The Timeline of Presidential Elections.
That is, once the volatility dies down, one candidate usually emerges from the convention chaos with a durable lead. And almost always, the political scientists find, that candidate goes on to win the election.
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According to Huffington Polls, Clinton is ahead by 8% points, even factoring in Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate. So if the Vox experts quoted are right, Clinton has a big probability of winning, barring some big scandal or such. Which it seems more likely be a problem for Trump, and his big mouth.
We are two weeks out from the final day of the Democratic convention. And according to historical research by political scientists Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezien, this is usually the time that the convention fog finally lifts and the polls become more predictive.
"Although the convention season is the time for multiple bounces in the polls, one party ends up with an advantage when the dust clears. And this gain is a net convention bump rather than a bounce," Erikson and Wlezien write in their book The Timeline of Presidential Elections.
That is, once the volatility dies down, one candidate usually emerges from the convention chaos with a durable lead. And almost always, the political scientists find, that candidate goes on to win the election.
----
According to Huffington Polls, Clinton is ahead by 8% points, even factoring in Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate. So if the Vox experts quoted are right, Clinton has a big probability of winning, barring some big scandal or such. Which it seems more likely be a problem for Trump, and his big mouth.
