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Washington Post: Trump is on Track to Win Reelection.

sharon45 said:
Frikki said:
You don´t really have to make the GOP look racist.
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Sen. Dick Durbin is obviously not a Republican or considered a racist, yet he also supports the idea of having a secure southern border
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You might want a secure border without being a racist but the GOP from the President down is chock full of racists doing racist things.
 
Frikki said:
sharon45 said:
Sen. Dick Durbin is obviously not a Republican or considered a racist, yet he also supports the idea of having a secure southern border
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You might want a secure border without being a racist but the GOP from the President down is chock full of racists doing racist things.
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It doesn't matter much what I personally want on a certain political issue, it is a lot more important that America vastly decides for herself, instead of being constantly fractured.
 
fromderinside said:
Americans aren't going to decide. Their pocketbooks will. With this bull market blowing up to the level it was in 1928 I'm pretty sure democrats will be riding wave of "throw out the bums" in '18.
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What in god's green earth do stock prices have to do with the economic plight of the typical trump voter? NOTHING. DJIA can triple by march, and the poor idiot pawns who voted for trump will have wallets as flat as they are now.
The Dems' only hope is that some of the trumpsuckers wake up to that fact some time between now and 11/2018.
 
Elixir said:
fromderinside said:
Americans aren't going to decide. Their pocketbooks will. With this bull market blowing up to the level it was in 1928 I'm pretty sure democrats will be riding wave of "throw out the bums" in '18.
Click to expand...

What in god's green earth do stock prices have to do with the economic plight of the typical trump voter? NOTHING. DJIA can triple by march, and the poor idiot pawns who voted for trump will have wallets as flat as they are now.
The Dems' only hope is that some of the trumpsuckers wake up to that fact some time between now and 11/2018.
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Again with these defeatist attitudes. The Democrats better do a bit more than just rely on hope.
 
sharon45 said:
Elixir said:
What in god's green earth do stock prices have to do with the economic plight of the typical trump voter? NOTHING. DJIA can triple by march, and the poor idiot pawns who voted for trump will have wallets as flat as they are now.
The Dems' only hope is that some of the trumpsuckers wake up to that fact some time between now and 11/2018.
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Again with these defeatist attitudes. The Democrats better do a bit more than just rely on hope.
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I agree. After all, the chance of trumpsuckers waking up is almost its own joke.
 
Elixir said:
fromderinside said:
Americans aren't going to decide. Their pocketbooks will. With this bull market blowing up to the level it was in 1928 I'm pretty sure democrats will be riding wave of "throw out the bums" in '18.
Click to expand...

What in god's green earth do stock prices have to do with the economic plight of the typical trump voter? NOTHING. DJIA can triple by march, and the poor idiot pawns who voted for trump will have wallets as flat as they are now.
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I think fromderinside is suggesting a sharp market correction. If that does happen, they often come with at least modest recessions. And that would be bad news for the Repugs in 2018. It has been a historically long economic expansion (and stock run), though it also has been a very gentle expansion. So we certainly could see a contraction before the next election, but I certainly wouldn't predict it yet...

The Dems' only hope is that some of the trumpsuckers wake up to that fact some time between now and 11/2018.
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The state of the economy during 2020 is the biggest factor. Not that polling numbers this year should really mean anything, but Don the Con is setting records in just how low job approval ratings for a sitting President can go. His percentage for strong disapproval slid up about 10 points after becoming President; and the percentage of strong supporters has slid down about 10 points after becoming President. Those are pretty damning numbers for a guy who squeaked into office. States like Texas, Nevada, and Arizona are becoming more competitive for the Dums with each presidential voting cycle due to demographic trends. It is hard to imagine a winning electoral vote game plan for the Repugs w/o Texas. Don the Con spread a yuge load of BS to get elected, and some of those swing voters (especially in the rust belt) seem to have taken the bait. It seems unlikely that Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania will stay in the Repug lane the next time as those good jobs will never arrive. Depending on how bad the Repugs/FFvC pooch health care, it could even cost them one of the legislative chambers in 2018.

FFvC does have the incumbency factor in his favor, but not much else. He does have a path to reelection, but so does pretty much every first term president. That is not much different that saying it will rain again…not very useful information especially this early into a presidency. His retaining support of his Trumpeteers is nearly irrelevant to evaluating his reelection chances; though it is more important in the primaries. It is that modest sized pocket of swing/indy voters that matter, and polling suggest that they are so far not thrilled with the results of their dice throw. The other factor always in play is voter turnout. And that is where the Dums need to do a better job of choosing a more charismatic candidate, as compared to HRC or say Dukakis.
 
funinspace said:
The state of the economy during 2020 is the biggest factor.
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I believe you are assuming that Dems don't take back the both houses of congress in 2018. I consider it a bit of a long shot myself, but if it should happen, 2020 will be moot, at least as far as Cheato is concerned.
 
Elixir said:
funinspace said:
The state of the economy during 2020 is the biggest factor.
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I believe you are assuming that Dems don't take back the both houses of congress in 2018. I consider it a bit of a long shot myself, but if it should happen, 2020 will be moot, at least as far as Cheato is concerned.
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Yep. If we show obvious signs of going into a recession by early next summer then yeah the Dums could take both houses, but more probably the Senate. Otherwise, it might be tough to do more than narrow the margins. The 2010 district remapping has made it even harder for the Dums in the House as well.

Two months old, but probably still spot on. The 2018 Senate seats that are up for play simply favor the Repugs this time:
http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/07/politics/2018-midterms-trump/index.html
That embarrassment of political riches means that in 2018 there are a whopping 25 Democratic seats up as compared to a meager eight for Republicans. In other words, 52% of all the seats Democrats control are up in 2018 while just 15% of Republicans' seats are up.
<snip>
In short: The political environment is looking very, very good for Democrats. But the math is unchanging -- and bad -- for them.

History suggests that political environments can sometimes overwhelm raw numbers. But, for that to happen you need a gale-force wind blowing in one direction. And that is a very rare thing
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Elixir said:
What in god's green earth do stock prices have to do with the economic plight of the typical trump voter? NOTHING. DJIA can triple by march, and the poor idiot pawns who voted for trump will have wallets as flat as they are now.
The Dems' only hope is that some of the trumpsuckers wake up to that fact some time between now and 11/2018.
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Where did this idea arise that Trump voters are the poors? The election for people making >$100k was an exact even split between him and Hillary, 47-47. He won a slight edge in the middle, $50k-$100k and she soldily won the <$50k bracket.
How Groups Voted 2016
 
Derec said:
Elixir said:
What in god's green earth do stock prices have to do with the economic plight of the typical trump voter? NOTHING. DJIA can triple by march, and the poor idiot pawns who voted for trump will have wallets as flat as they are now.
The Dems' only hope is that some of the trumpsuckers wake up to that fact some time between now and 11/2018.
Click to expand...
Where did this idea arise that Trump voters are the poors? The election for people making >$100k was an exact even split between him and Hillary, 47-47. He won a slight edge in the middle, $50k-$100k and she soldily won the <$50k bracket.
How Groups Voted 2016
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The illustrative statistic isn't that Trump was 50-50 with the >100k income group, rather, you need to compare that with how Trump performed with these groups *relative to other Republicans in other Presidential Elections*. For example, Obama vs Romney was 44 to 54 in favor of Romney. The gap disappeared. Indeed, a gap has existed there probably as far back as we have measured. Similarly, the gap *closed* in the lowest income group. Trump got way more of poorer voters than previous Republican presidents, which isn't surprising, because he ran on a protectionist, nationalist platform.
 
J842P said:
For example, Obama vs Romney was 44 to 54 in favor of Romney. The gap disappeared.
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I know that. But nevertheless the idea that the typical Trump voter is a yokel with no investment income is divorced from reality.
which isn't surprising, because he ran on a protectionist, nationalist platform.
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Also because Hillary was the candidate. A candidate further to the left like Sanders would probably have made the gap even wider, Trump or no Trump.
 
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