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Washington Post: Trump is on Track to Win Reelection.

Trump is definitely on track to win re-election - even if his approval rate on 11/1/2020 is 25%.

Rethuglicans are so thrilled with all the help they got in 2016, they're doing everything in their power (and they have most of it, by far) to allow anything that would blunt Russia's efforts to keep the US divided and afraid of "the left".
Sure, Putin is disappointed that Cheato is unable to perform the trained dog tricks he was hoping for, but that would have been icing on the cake. As long as they can keep right wing neo-cons in power against the will of the the majority of American citizens, their mission is succeeding.

Billions of views of Russian propaganda on social media did the trick last time, and none of the beneficiaries will raise one finger to stop it from happening again.
 
If there's one thing that we can be sure of, it's that no matter how horrendous and hated Trump is going into the election, the Democrats will probably manage to find a way to fuck things up and lose. I'm not sure what they could do to lose, but I have faith in their incompetence.
 
funinspace said:
Part of what drove HRC's loss was the drop in the percentage of minorities that bothered to vote, and that the percentage of whites voting went up 1 percentage point from 2012:
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/332970-voter-turnout-dipped-in-2016-led-by-decline-among-blacks
Black turnout fell 2 points and Hispanic turnout tumbled by a whopping 34 points in Michigan, a state President Trump won by just over 10,000 votes after Clinton fell short of matching President Obama's vote totals in Detroit.

In Wisconsin, another state Trump barely won, fewer than half of black voters cast a ballot; four years ago, when Obama carried the state, 78 percent of blacks voted.

Turnout among black voters fell seven points in Florida, and turnout among Hispanic voters there, who make up critical voting blocs stretching from Miami-Dade County to Orlando, fell eight points. That ended a streak of four consecutive elections in which black and Hispanic voters showed up in increasing numbers.
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I would say it is a big part of what drove the lose. Certainly more than "Bernie Bros," although you hear a lot about the latter.

Apparently, Trump wasn't off-putting enough to hispanics for them to come out and vote against Trump in numbers even equal to those that came out to vote for Obama.

It is less surprising that black turnout went down, given the historical nature of Obama's presidency.

- - - Updated - - -

Elixir said:
Trump is definitely on track to win re-election - even if his approval rate on 11/1/2020 is 25%.

Rethuglicans are so thrilled with all the help they got in 2016, they're doing everything in their power (and they have most of it, by far) to allow anything that would blunt Russia's efforts to keep the US divided and afraid of "the left".
Sure, Putin is disappointed that Cheato is unable to perform the trained dog tricks he was hoping for, but that would have been icing on the cake. As long as they can keep right wing neo-cons in power against the will of the the majority of American citizens, their mission is succeeding.

Billions of views of Russian propaganda on social media did the trick last time, and none of the beneficiaries will raise one finger to stop it from happening again.
Click to expand...

This is so confused, I don't even know where to begin. But primarily, if Putin wants anything, it's to keep the neo-cons **out of power**. Indeed, that is the biggest issue he had with Hilary. The Neo-cons were supporting Hilary in droves. Trump represents that anti-neocon, paleo/populist wing of the Republican party.

But yes. It was **the Russians**.
 
funinspace said:
J842P said:
I think you are in for a disappoinment if you are relying on the increased proportion of Hispanics in the electorate as a long-term bulwark against Christo-fascism. Indeed, if the Republicans eventually realize that Hispanics are natural allies, the Dems might get hoisted by their own petard.
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I'm not sure how you see this natural alliance, as the Repugs would first have to jettison their 'brown people are causing our labor and budget problems' meme to even have a chance. Either way, this is still a big 'if' you suggest could happen...
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Detractors deceptively over-dramatize this issue in order to make the Republicans look like racists.
 
J842P said:
funinspace said:
Part of what drove HRC's loss was the drop in the percentage of minorities that bothered to vote, and that the percentage of whites voting went up 1 percentage point from 2012:
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/332970-voter-turnout-dipped-in-2016-led-by-decline-among-blacks
Click to expand...
I would say it is a big part of what drove the lose. Certainly more than "Bernie Bros," although you hear a lot about the latter.

Apparently, Trump wasn't off-putting enough to hispanics for them to come out and vote against Trump in numbers even equal to those that came out to vote for Obama.

It is less surprising that black turnout went down, given the historical nature of Obama's presidency.
Click to expand...
It seems that it is human nature to be more likely to get out and vote for someone they are excited about, more so than getting out and voting against someone they think is really bad; especially when their other choice is about as exciting as a dentist visit...
 
funinspace said:
J842P said:
I would say it is a big part of what drove the lose. Certainly more than "Bernie Bros," although you hear a lot about the latter.

Apparently, Trump wasn't off-putting enough to hispanics for them to come out and vote against Trump in numbers even equal to those that came out to vote for Obama.

It is less surprising that black turnout went down, given the historical nature of Obama's presidency.
Click to expand...
It seems that it is human nature to be more likely to get out and vote for someone they are excited about, more so than getting out and voting against someone they think is really bad; especially when their other choice is about as exciting as a dentist visit...
Click to expand...

That's why mandatory voting is a good idea.

We have mandatory voting (and IRV), and people tend to vote against the worst candidates, rather than for the best ones. It's MUCH easier to identify which politicians you DON'T want to support.

When you have FPTP and optional voting, you get a government that is elected by extremists and enthusiasts.
 
bilby makes an interesting point... I can't see the US implementing mandatory voting, but I can imagine a tax credit for choosing to vote being a possibility.

bilby said:
When you have FPTP and optional voting, you get a government that is elected by extremists and enthusiasts.
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Indeed. Intriguing.
 
It should be illegal to campaign this early. In fact, no candidate for any office should be allowed to campaign, fundraise or anything else until six months prior to election day. And all candidates should be allotted the same amount of money. There should be no political ads, one televised debate where they are forced to answer the questions at hand and one website where voters can go and compare.
sharon45 said:
Harry_Bosch said:
Of course he's on the inside track. He has a united party. He doesn't need as many votes as his opposition. He has no opposition. He has Russian bots helping his cause.
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Like the article I cited, this is also a defeatist attitude. Trump ran largely against the party he was seeking the nomination from and still won, yet he hardly presides over a party of integrety, both in moral character and unimpaired. Obviously it may seem to be way too early, but any perceived opposition had better start honestly planning and building some now if they have not done so already.
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Playball40 said:
It should be illegal to campaign this early. In fact, no candidate for any office should be allowed to campaign, fundraise or anything else until six months prior to election day. And all candidates should be allotted the same amount of money. There should be no political ads, one televised debate where they are forced to answer the questions at hand and one website where voters can go and compare.
sharon45 said:
Like the article I cited, this is also a defeatist attitude. Trump ran largely against the party he was seeking the nomination from and still won, yet he hardly presides over a party of integrety, both in moral character and unimpaired. Obviously it may seem to be way too early, but any perceived opposition had better start honestly planning and building some now if they have not done so already.
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Wow, the republicans would love that! They'd rule the US forever. The republicans control every branch of government. This means that they are able to control the issues, control the narrative, run the agenda, make the decisions. Trump and the republicans are on TV "politicting" everyone moment of the day. Thank the spaghetti monster that the dems have the ability to fight back....
 
sharon45 said:
funinspace said:
I'm not sure how you see this natural alliance, as the Repugs would first have to jettison their 'brown people are causing our labor and budget problems' meme to even have a chance. Either way, this is still a big 'if' you suggest could happen...
Click to expand...
Detractors deceptively over-dramatize this issue in order to make the Republicans look like racists.
Click to expand...

You don´t really have to make the GOP look racist.
 
Elixir said:
Trump is definitely on track to win re-election - even if his approval rate on 11/1/2020 is 25%.

Rethuglicans are so thrilled with all the help they got in 2016, they're doing everything in their power (and they have most of it, by far) to allow anything that would blunt Russia's efforts to keep the US divided and afraid of "the left".
Sure, Putin is disappointed that Cheato is unable to perform the trained dog tricks he was hoping for, but that would have been icing on the cake. As long as they can keep right wing neo-cons in power against the will of the the majority of American citizens, their mission is succeeding.

Billions of views of Russian propaganda on social media did the trick last time, and none of the beneficiaries will raise one finger to stop it from happening again.
Click to expand...

Trump's secret Weapon could be Hilary, who now blames pretty much everyone. RTV was accused of trying to influence the election but in reality so did FOX, BBC CNN, ABC and MNSBC. In the UK, German ZTV tried to influence the outcome of the BREXIT vote. The Unclassified Intelligence Report which forms the same conclusions as the official one cannot guarantee any of its findings are factual relating to the love affair between Putin and Trump.
 
sharon45 said:
Frikki said:
You don´t really have to make the GOP look racist.
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Sen. Dick Durbin is obviously not a Republican or considered a racist, yet he also supports the idea of having a secure southern border
Click to expand...

Who disagrees with having a secure border anywhere?

Have you been programmed to respond no new wall = no security at all?

It's like the "extreme vetting" "problem" with immigration of brown skin people. you are likely programmed to equate "immigration" with "no borders".

What "vetting" is needed? a Two-Year process of background checks, rechecks, tests, more checks, and a metric ton of paperwork and documentation? Would that count as "vetting"... because that is what has been in place for decades. Another fake solution seeking a fake problem.
 
Malintent said:
sharon45 said:
Sen. Dick Durbin is obviously not a Republican or considered a racist, yet he also supports the idea of having a secure southern border
Click to expand...

Who disagrees with having a secure border anywhere?

Have you been programmed to respond no new wall = no security at all?
Click to expand...
A secure border is over 30 years delayed, and even then, it was already decades late again, so I am hardly programmed by simply pointing this long-belated issue out.

It's like the "extreme vetting" "problem" with immigration of brown skin people. you are likely programmed to equate "immigration" with "no borders".
Click to expand...
Again, no. As they say, we are practically all immigrates, it just obviously should be legal.

What "vetting" is needed? a Two-Year process of background checks, rechecks, tests, more checks, and a metric ton of paperwork and documentation? Would that count as "vetting"... because that is what has been in place for decades. Another fake solution seeking a fake problem.
Click to expand...
Again, I don't really care about so-called vetting either. Since the U.S. is the greatest nation, we should easily set the standard for also having the greatest immigrates.
 
Malintent said:
sharon45 said:
Sen. Dick Durbin is obviously not a Republican or considered a racist, yet he also supports the idea of having a secure southern border
Click to expand...

Who disagrees with having a secure border anywhere?

Have you been programmed to respond no new wall = no security at all?

It's like the "extreme vetting" "problem" with immigration of brown skin people. you are likely programmed to equate "immigration" with "no borders".

What "vetting" is needed? a Two-Year process of background checks, rechecks, tests, more checks, and a metric ton of paperwork and documentation? Would that count as "vetting"... because that is what has been in place for decades. Another fake solution seeking a fake problem.
Click to expand...

If it helps people sleep a little better (and we can horse trade with letter the dreamers stay in the US) fine, but the wall should be paid for. We shouldn't blow up our deficit for frivolous spending that helps some people sleep a little better.
 
Just one more reason why Trump won and will continue on so, is with much help from people who were sick of being called racists because they only want the southern border secured.
 
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