We are on the Verge of Economic Catastrophe

[Elixir]

The stock market “crash” is happening in slow motion already.
It’s predictable … I have withdrawn about 75% of all the funds I managed from the equities market. But trying to counter inflation with stuff like CDs and Money Market funds probably isn’t going to happen. So I’m resigned to losing a lot of money over the next four years and hope I’ll be able to keep my home.
Too bad. The economy WAS doing so well.

Yup. Down over 500 points as of right now. More than 1%. I'm heavily invested. I may call my broker though. I just not sure about the tax consequences.

That’s why I’ve been moving out of equities slowly since last year. What’s left is getting hit pretty hard at the moment but not as hard as the broader markets.
This is PREDICTABLE.

 

[Jarhyn]

The stock market “crash” is happening in slow motion already.
It’s predictable … I have withdrawn about 75% of all the funds I managed from the equities market. But trying to counter inflation with stuff like CDs and Money Market funds probably isn’t going to happen. So I’m resigned to losing a lot of money over the next four years and hope I’ll be able to keep my home.
Too bad. The economy WAS doing so well.

Yup. Down over 500 points as of right now. More than 1%. I'm heavily invested. I may call my broker though. I just not sure about the tax consequences.

Do not sell out. That's exactly what the financial ownership class wants... For you to sell low so they can buy low. Their strategy in the near future is going to me wildly inflationary, because they can pay off loans on most of their stocks with a loan on a fraction of the remainder, vastly increasing their wealth for when they scrap the currency and stop inflating.

You remember how accusations are admissions? They just spent a bunch of time accusing Biden of causing inflation so that they can eliminate tax sinks and force inflation themselves, since it clears all the leverage, but only the leverage over themselves.

 

[southernhybrid]

The stock market “crash” is happening in slow motion already.
It’s predictable … I have withdrawn about 75% of all the funds I managed from the equities market. But trying to counter inflation with stuff like CDs and Money Market funds probably isn’t going to happen. So I’m resigned to losing a lot of money over the next four years and hope I’ll be able to keep my home.
Too bad. The economy WAS doing so well.

Yup. The Dow is down almost 600 points right now, at least partly due to Walmart giving a negative outlook. If people can't afford to buy their shit at Walmart, that's certainly not a good sign for the economy. I've wondered why it's taken this long for things to begin to fall. Some so called experts are becoming concerned about the impact of deporting immigrants on the economy. Wow, who would have thunk it?/s The leading economic indicators for January were worse than expected. Ohh. I'm shocked. /s Wages are starting to drop etc. Maybe people will wake up and realize we have an idiot leading the country. Not that a president can control all aspects of the economy, but things like tariffs and taking away federal workers without any rhyme or reason certainly doesn't help. BOA still claims the tariffs are just a bargaining issue. Hmmmm. I kind of doubt it.

The good news maybe is that as of now two Republicans have voted against Kash Patel. Will at least a couple more have the balls to join them? Ok. Off topic but I'm following and reading news as I post this little rant.

And, I hope I can sell one of my homes. At least I have no mortgages or debt, as of now. I pity those who do. They will be more screwed by what's going on, including my Jersey sister who still has a mortgage at age 73.....

 

[Elixir]

Do not sell out. That's exactly what the financial ownership class wants... For you to sell low so they can buy low.

Nope - the super rich DON'T CARE what you do. Market downturns don't help or hinder them. Most don't hoard cash and buy on dips - they stay invested, borrow as needed, pay no taxes and get ahead regardless of market vagaries.
Not everyone will sell out, and those who do, will return their money to the markets as soon as they start to look up again. The Rich will still be there.
It would take a truly epic crash, on the order of 95% losses on all the blue chips, to cause pain to the oligarch class. And that pain would be easily remedied because of the millions of people willing to work for subsistence under such conditions.

 

[Swammerdami]

The stock market “crash” is happening in slow motion already.

Yup. Down over 500 points as of right now. More than 1%. I'm heavily invested. I may call my broker though. I just not sure about the tax consequences.

Do not sell out. That's exactly what the financial ownership class wants... For you to sell low so they can buy low.

Are we talking about the same stock market? A 1% drop is a pittance: Stock prices FLUCTUATE.

The S&P500 index (MUCH more informative than the DJIA) set an all-time record on Wednesday and is down only slightly from there. The DJIA set a record on Election Day and is down only 2% from there; it remains more than double what it was five years ago.
The Nasdaq-100 also set an all-time record two days ago.

 

[ImGod]

The stock market is not the economy. They may be related, but not necessarily.

A company with good sales overseas can have rising stock values while nobody here can buy their products. Lay off employees and boost stock prices. Etc, etc

The DJIA and S&P don't go down because every year they toss the losers and replace them. Hence, why IBM and Kodak aren't on the Dow anymore.

 

[TV and credit cards]

The stock market “crash” is happening in slow motion already.

Yup. Down over 500 points as of right now. More than 1%. I'm heavily invested. I may call my broker though. I just not sure about the tax consequences.

Do not sell out. That's exactly what the financial ownership class wants... For you to sell low so they can buy low.

Are we talking about the same stock market? A 1% drop is a pittance: Stock prices FLUCTUATE.

The S&P500 index (MUCH more informative than the DJIA) set an all-time record on Wednesday and is down only slightly from there. The DJIA set a record on Election Day and is down only 2% from there; it remains more than double what it was five years ago.
The Nasdaq-100 also set an all-time record two days ago.

True but compared to Asian and European markets, we can see where the money is flowing.

 

[Jarhyn]

Do not sell out. That's exactly what the financial ownership class wants... For you to sell low so they can buy low.

Nope - the super rich DON'T CARE what you do. Market downturns don't help or hinder them. Most don't hoard cash and buy on dips - they stay invested, borrow as needed, pay no taxes and get ahead regardless of market vagaries.
Not everyone will sell out, and those who do, will return their money to the markets as soon as they start to look up again. The Rich will still be there.
It would take a truly epic crash, on the order of 95% losses on all the blue chips, to cause pain to the oligarch class. And that pain would be easily remedied because of the millions of people willing to work for subsistence under such conditions.

They take loans on stocks to buy more stocks so that

The stock market “crash” is happening in slow motion already.

Yup. Down over 500 points as of right now. More than 1%. I'm heavily invested. I may call my broker though. I just not sure about the tax consequences.

Do not sell out. That's exactly what the financial ownership class wants... For you to sell low so they can buy low.

Are we talking about the same stock market? A 1% drop is a pittance: Stock prices FLUCTUATE.

The S&P500 index (MUCH more informative than the DJIA) set an all-time record on Wednesday and is down only slightly from there. The DJIA set a record on Election Day and is down only 2% from there; it remains more than double what it was five years ago.
The Nasdaq-100 also set an all-time record two days ago.

I'm talking in general: never sell on downturns except for the "obsoleted" ones, because doing so is the inverse of a good idea.

 

[Elixir]

The S&P500 index (MUCH more informative than the DJIA) set an all-time record on Wednesday and is down only slightly from there.

The slow motion crash is happening.
The Felon has been in office for one month.
The DOW is down 0.22%, NASDAQ is up 0.61% and SPX is up 0.74%.
In isolation those figures are “so what”. But the long graph shows all three major indices “leveling off” or starting to decline. The last few days are full of red ink but that’s not unusual. What WILL be unusual is seeing a bunch of weeks or months with ever-declining gains, followed by weeks or months of stasis or decreasing values.
There won’t be a lot of double digit blue chip gains this year, that much seems clear.

never sell on downturns

My broker would bite your head off.
“Market timing doesn’t work!”
He even told me that the day in March 2020, when markets took a major dump due to Cheato lying about COVID, and I told him to put me all-in.
Yeah that was great, for a one-week gain, but in retrospect he was right; that money had been sitting in low yield safe places for almost a year, and I’d have been further ahead of if I had left it in the market and weathered the ups and downs.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Lots of money to be made in timing the market. No way am I capable of timing the market.

Meanwhile, Trump campaigned on the economy... and his entire presidency has been about power consolidation and foreign policies... and economic ideas that'll increase prices. He is increasing unemployment directly. Consumer sentiment is dropping! And Musk and Trump are firing people in the Executive Branch. They are showing no interest in the economy.

 

[laughing dog]

Lots of money to be made in timing the market. No way am I capable of timing the market.

Meanwhile, Trump campaigned on the economy... and his entire presidency has been about power consolidation and foreign policies... and economic ideas that'll increase prices. He is increasing unemployment directly. Consumer sentiment is dropping! And Musk and Trump are firing people in the Executive Branch. They are showing no interest in the economy.

Jimmy - doncha know any economics? Releasing workers from unproductive gummint jobs increases the supply of labor willing to work for food. Because we are deporting all of those illegal immigrants, we need those potential workers to pick lettuce and keep wages down so that inflation is tamed!!!!!

You gotta believe!!!!!! And you have to have patience. After all, Rome was destroyed built in a day.

 

[bilby]

Lots of money to be made in timing the market. No way am I capable of timing the market.

Equally, there's a ton of money to be made betting on horseraces. All you need to do is pick the winners, which (sadly) I seem to be incapable of doing consistently.

 

[Elixir]

Lots of money to be made in timing the market. No way am I capable of timing the market.

Day trading can be somewhat reliably profitable if you have a large enough capital pool and enough focus to make market-watching a nearly full time job.

 

[Jarhyn]

Lots of money to be made in timing the market. No way am I capable of timing the market.

Day trading can be somewhat reliably profitable if you have a large enough capital pool and enough focus to make market-watching a nearly full time job.

Hence my point: don't sell on downturns. Someone will be watching the market and om nom nom cheap stocks.

Selling high and buying low only exists for the wealthy... Who salivate waiting for someone to do so.

For everyone else it's "buy now and hold, and don't you dare fucking touch it if it drops."

 

[Tigers!]

Lots of money to be made in timing the market. No way am I capable of timing the market.

Equally, there's a ton of money to be made betting on horseraces. All you need to do is pick the winners, which (sadly) I seem to be incapable of doing consistently.

Self interest, Bilby. Always bet on self interest.

I am sure you know the story.

 

[Elixir]

Selling high and buying low only exists for the wealthy... Who salivate waiting for someone to do so.

That’s a very broad brush. Day Traders don’t sell on dips because they generally don’t buy on days the market is flat or down. OTOH, a medium-term, small time investor like me, will sometimes sell on a dip to minimize tax exposure. I did some of that in December in fact. There are algorithmic “rules” that institutional and personal CFPs use for balancing portfolios and occasionally even they are caught having to sell on dips to limit exposures.
On one occasion last year I flat out made a bad decision, and ended up selling at a short term loss because waiting for a recovery that probably wasn’t gonna happen, wasn’t something I wanted to do.
I like to forget about it all for days or weeks at a time.

 

[Jarhyn]

Selling high and buying low only exists for the wealthy... Who salivate waiting for someone to do so.

That’s a very broad brush. Day Traders don’t sell on dips because they generally don’t buy on days the market is flat or down. OTOH, a medium-term, small time investor like me, will sometimes sell on a dip to minimize tax exposure. I did some of that in December in fact. There are algorithmic “rules” that institutional and personal CFPs use for balancing portfolios and occasionally even they are caught having to sell on dips to limit exposures.
On one occasion last year I flat out made a bad decision, and ended up selling at a short term loss because waiting for a recovery that probably wasn’t gonna happen, wasn’t something I wanted to do.
I like to forget about it all for days or weeks at a time.

You're going to have to explain the mechanics or math of the tax exposure, then.

I get "selling a car for scrap to the lot", and "abandoning ship before it sinks completely", as it were, when the car is FUBAR.

Most funds don't operate quite that way, as there is a fund manager there identifying ships that will sink vs ones that will get themselves righted (although the act of managing can 'tinkerbell effect' the outcome there).

For people who trade their own stocks, yeah, a dying company is never going to be fun to deal with on a portfolio

 

[Elixir]

Most funds don't operate quite that way

Quite true in my limited experience. Fund managers tend to take a very dispassionate long view. They’re not day traders or short term investors. Their recommendation in tough times has always been (to me) “tough it out”. And they’ve been right, most all the time. The confounder for me, now, is my age. That’s why only about 50% of what I have with a brokerage is in safe havens, and so is almost 90 percent of everything else. And with all that, most of my paper worth is still in real estate. I’ll never be rich, but also don’t think I’ll live long enough to go broke.

 

[unapologetic]

now you’ve got Trump saying maybe we don’t legally have to pay our debts.

He's got a lot of experience at that.

Can YOU spot the Top?

I don't even try.
My long term strategy with gold is counter-intuitive. BUY as the price is dropping, and everyone else is selling. And SELL as the price is rising, and everyone else is buying. Don't wait for it to peak. Treat each piece as a separate investment, wait till the price is above what I paid, of course.
No need to max profit on every sale. Just sell more. Long term, gold always goes up. That is how pawn shops do it. Do the opposite of what the customers do.

 

[Elixir]

Get used to it, kids.



Cheddar says;

Economists agree: Only 10% of 47 economists on a panel compiled by consulting firm WoltersKluwel expect a rate cut at the Fed’s March meeting, and 80% say tariffs will provide “a significant boost” to U.S. inflation.

What I want to know, is where did they find those 4.7 economists? Sounds painful.