We are on the Verge of Economic Catastrophe

[Axulus]

It appears to have originated from a clip from Hassett this morning at 8am, where he was asked if Trump would consider a 90 day pause, and he said "the president is gonna decide what the president is gonna decide", and then at about 10:13 a fake social media account with the name Bloomberg started the rumor that Trump was considering the 90 day pause except for China, and it somehow got reported by CNBC after that. Appears to be fake.

 

[ImGod]

I think the market is jumping because large firms are starting to shift around large account balances into more stable stocks less likely to be impacted by tariffs. A large quick buy and certain stocks jump, then back to an overall fall.

Someone always wins and loses when their are major money shifts. Some companies will benefit from this policy change, some lose. Historically, "the market" always goes up because it's a basket of stocks. Some companies in the basket may go under and new winner stocks added. Like how the DOW went up even though Kodak was no longer on it.

That's why using "the markets" as economic indicators isn't always a true measure. The S&P 500 may lose a lot more companies off the index this year than normal.

Gold is the oldest safe haven and it went down because traders liquidated some to cover positions. Now it's headed back up.

Bond rates are dropping, because money is moving to those as safe havens. They don't need to increase rates to get people to buy.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The market is on pause at the moment. They are thinking, "Fox and Friends wouldn't bring it up unless it was in the cards." They are desperate for it to be true.

 

[ImGod]

It's crazy enough out there cnbc has an article up to refresh our memories on market circuit breakers.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/06/sp-500-circuit-breaker-on-tariff-worries-what-that-means.html

 

[GenesisNemesis]

Well my husband is due to retire next month and between our retirement savings, which had seemed adequate, and which, so far, we have not had the guts to look at since early January, and our Social Securities and my very small pension, which, at this point, seems to be the only certain source of income we have: of course the economy is tanking.

I was mulling over retiring later this year but I guess I will defer for now.

I am glad you are happy with the guy you voted for.

Are you fucking kidding me????!

Even without the possible personal economic ruin, I have been teetering on a full blown mental breakdown for the past 5 months.

First time? (Jk)

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Market seems at peace with accepting Trump is all in on dumb.

 

[ImGod]

Double down time, as Trump threatens China with 50% tariffs if they don't lift their tariffs imposed after our tariffs.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

That'll help set a near 100 year old benchmark of three straight days of 4% drops.

“Yesterday, China issued Retaliatory Tariffs of 34%, on top of their already record setting Tariffs, Non-Monetary Tariffs, Illegal Subsidization of companies, and massive long term Currency Manipulation, despite my warning that any country that Retaliates against the U.S. by issuing additional Tariffs, above and beyond their already existing long term Tariff abuse of our Nation, will be immediately met with new and substantially higher Tariffs, over and above those initially set,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

“Therefore, if China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th,” he went on.

Yes, some of that is true. China has manipulated the system.

Sadly, threatening 50% tariffs on the nation we gave a substantial amount of our production to, seems like a really stupid way to manage China's actual trade malfeasance.

 

[ImGod]

What's Amazon going to sell when their fulfillment centers run low?

 

[Politesse]

What's Amazon going to sell when their fulfillment centers run low?

Workers.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Apparently Europe is rushing to the negotiating table. They, like Vietnam, are willing to drop tariffs to 0%, for the European case, for industrial products. The trouble is, Trump is an idiot and when he says tariffs, he means trade deficit (and even then, he can't keep those numbers in the realm of plausible). So it isn't enough to remove tariffs, Trump wants the trade deficit eliminated. He wants something that can't really be provided.

So there is little room for negotiation, other than we modify the tariff structure to only take effect once we reach a trade deficit, but that'd require work.

 

[ImGod]

How many countries were imposing tariffs to limit US goods? Sure match their tariffs.

But now they are pulling out "other unfair trade restrictions" like VAT, currency manipulations, stealing IP, etc.

Because other countries judo moved on the administration by saying they'd drop all tariffs to zero. Most probably were zero already. That puts other countries in the same position as before of having lower regulatory and labor costs for manufactering and nothing moves here.

So now there has to be other reasons than "retallitory" for the tariffs to continue.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So, here is a question, as Trump valiantly fights against China and our "$1 trillion" trade deficit with them, he is threatening a tariff of 50%. This could result in up to 100+% tariffs on Chinese imports. Does our country just go straight into a recession with tariffs like that?

 

[Elixir]

there has to be other reasons than "retallitory" for the tariffs to continue.

You mean taxing poor people, plus everyone’s earnings below the standard deduction threshold, so Trump can pay off his benefactors, isn’t enough?

It’s possible that the ultimate effect thwarts even that corrupt intent, if it suppresses international trade too much.

 

[ImGod]

So, here is a question, as Trump valiantly fights against China and our "$1 trillion" trade deficit with them, he is threatening a tariff of 50%. This could result in up to 100+% tariffs on Chinese imports. Does our country just go straight into a recession with tariffs like that?

They make so much it would shock our country into depression territory.

How would any retailer in the US price current inventory? They can't front a 100% price hike so they would have to raise current inventory 50% at least to have capital to buy new at higher prices.

That's why gas prices go up fast and fall slower. You need profits to purchase inventory.

 

[Axulus]

Apparently Europe is rushing to the negotiating table. They, like Vietnam, are willing to drop tariffs to 0%, for the European case, for industrial products. The trouble is, Trump is an idiot and when he says tariffs, he means trade deficit (and even then, he can't keep those numbers in the realm of plausible). So it isn't enough to remove tariffs, Trump wants the trade deficit eliminated. He wants something that can't really be provided.

So there is little room for negotiation, other than we modify the tariff structure to only take effect once we reach a trade deficit, but that'd require work.

He is also quoted as saying they must pay us money back for past deficits.

 

[Harry Bosch]

How many countries were imposing tariffs to limit US goods? Sure match their tariffs.

But now they are pulling out "other unfair trade restrictions" like VAT, currency manipulations, stealing IP, etc.

Because other countries judo moved on the administration by saying they'd drop all tariffs to zero. Most probably were zero already. That puts other countries in the same position as before of having lower regulatory and labor costs for manufactering and nothing moves here.

So now there has to be other reasons than "retallitory" for the tariffs to continue.

BTW, VAT is not unfair. It’s simply a sales tax that affects all businesses, foreign and domestic.

 

[crazyfingers]

Apparently Europe is rushing to the negotiating table. They, like Vietnam, are willing to drop tariffs to 0%, for the European case, for industrial products. The trouble is, Trump is an idiot and when he says tariffs, he means trade deficit (and even then, he can't keep those numbers in the realm of plausible). So it isn't enough to remove tariffs, Trump wants the trade deficit eliminated. He wants something that can't really be provided.

So there is little room for negotiation, other than we modify the tariff structure to only take effect once we reach a trade deficit, but that'd require work.

He is also quoted as saying they must pay us money back for past deficits.

I really wish I knew whether in all this Trump is really this stupid or does he just depend on his MAGAworshipers to be this stupid.

I had expected him to take this offer to negotiate and tell his MAGA worshipers that Europe had eliminated tariffs (down from like 2%) and call it a HUGE win.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Apparently Europe is rushing to the negotiating table. They, like Vietnam, are willing to drop tariffs to 0%, for the European case, for industrial products. The trouble is, Trump is an idiot and when he says tariffs, he means trade deficit (and even then, he can't keep those numbers in the realm of plausible). So it isn't enough to remove tariffs, Trump wants the trade deficit eliminated. He wants something that can't really be provided.

So there is little room for negotiation, other than we modify the tariff structure to only take effect once we reach a trade deficit, but that'd require work.

He is also quoted as saying they must pay us money back for past deficits.

I really wish I knew whether in all this Trump is really this stupid or does he just depend on his MAGAworshipers to be this stupid.

I had expected him to take this offer to negotiate and tell his MAGA worshipers that Europe had eliminated tariffs (down from like 2%) and call it a HUGE win.

Yea this is just so fucking unnecessary. Have you googled Canada’s tariff is on US goods? It’s at 1.67%! For that we’re going to economic war on Canada??! Trump is looney, and he’s driving us into a recession.

 

[bilby]

Trump's logic is simple.

Envisage a young Trump, whose daddy just gave him money to buy ice-cream (that's where money comes from).

He takes his dollar to the ice-cream parlor, and swaps it for an ice-cream. He eats the ice-cream. Now he has nothing, and the ice-cream vendor has his dollar. So the ice-cream vendor is a fucking thief! He took Trump's dollar! Trump wants his dollar back, right now. And if he doesn't get it, he will never buy another ice-cream there, ever again.

He hasn't yet worked out that if he never buys another ice-cream, he will never have another ice-cream; Nor that the vendor would frankly be quite happy for this crazy kid, who called him a thief for no reason, to just bugger off. It means he sells less ice-cream, but really, he can just sell to the other, non-crazy, kids. They may not have as much money, but they do at least understand that after you spend money, it's not your money anymore.

Trump refuses to understand this.