What now for poor Lebanon?

[Tigers!]

With the death of Nasrallah Iran will choose the next head of Hezbollah with no thought of what might be best for the Lebanese.
This will add more turmoil to a already fractured place.
Add to that a barely functioning economy, armed groups running around the country, still reeling from the port explosion in 2020.
Israel bombing the country severely (not that the average Lebanese wanted it or needed it).
Most countries are telling their citizens to get out.
Can't help thinking that LEBANON is heading furiously to the disaster of their previous civil war

 

[Harry Bosch]

With the death of Nasrallah Iran will choose the next head of Hezbollah with no thought of what might be best for the Lebanese.
This will add more turmoil to a already fractured place.
Add to that a barely functioning economy, armed groups running around the country, still reeling from the port explosion in 2020.
Israel bombing the country severely (not that the average Lebanese wanted it or needed it).
Most countries are telling their citizens to get out.
Can't help thinking that LEBANON is heading furiously to the disaster of their previous civil war

I feel bad for the Lebanese civilians. I’d recommend stopping missile attacks into Israel. IMO, not wise to attack a neighbor.

 

[Derec]

With the death of Nasrallah Iran will choose the next head of Hezbollah with no thought of what might be best for the Lebanese.

Whoever takes over for Nasrallah (I heard it might be his cousin  Hashim Safi Al Din), he will have a difficult task ahead of him to restore Hezbollah leadership.
After all, most senior commanders have been killed over the last two weeks, and many of the middle-level commanders have also been killed in air strikes or maimed with exploding coms. That means that Hezbollah's bench has been depleted too.

This will add more turmoil to a already fractured place.
Add to that a barely functioning economy, armed groups running around the country, still reeling from the port explosion in 2020.

It shows that allowing terror organizations to freely operate and even attack another country from your territory is not a good idea. Ideally, Lebanese military would mop up the now weakened Hezbollah, but unfortunately they will likely just blame Israel.

Btw, Hezbollah is not the only terror group operating there. Three PFLP (a Marxist-Leninist terror group) commanders were killed in Beirut on Sunday.
Three PFLP leaders killed in strike in Kola district of Beirut

 

[laughing dog]

With the death of Nasrallah Iran will choose the next head of Hezbollah with no thought of what might be best for the Lebanese.
This will add more turmoil to a already fractured place.
Add to that a barely functioning economy, armed groups running around the country, still reeling from the port explosion in 2020.
Israel bombing the country severely (not that the average Lebanese wanted it or needed it).
Most countries are telling their citizens to get out.
Can't help thinking that LEBANON is heading furiously to the disaster of their previous civil war

I feel bad for the Lebanese civilians. I’d recommend stopping missile attacks into Israel. IMO, not wise to attack a neighbor.

The Lebanese civilians are not sending missiles anywhere.

 

[Politesse]

With the death of Nasrallah Iran will choose the next head of Hezbollah with no thought of what might be best for the Lebanese.
This will add more turmoil to a already fractured place.
Add to that a barely functioning economy, armed groups running around the country, still reeling from the port explosion in 2020.
Israel bombing the country severely (not that the average Lebanese wanted it or needed it).
Most countries are telling their citizens to get out.
Can't help thinking that LEBANON is heading furiously to the disaster of their previous civil war

It was already a failed state for all intents and purposes. Like everywhere a modern war has carpeted, it will languish on, barely habitable and desperate, periodically falring up into renewed spurts of violence.

 

[Tigers!]

With the death of Nasrallah Iran will choose the next head of Hezbollah with no thought of what might be best for the Lebanese.
This will add more turmoil to a already fractured place.
Add to that a barely functioning economy, armed groups running around the country, still reeling from the port explosion in 2020.
Israel bombing the country severely (not that the average Lebanese wanted it or needed it).
Most countries are telling their citizens to get out.
Can't help thinking that LEBANON is heading furiously to the disaster of their previous civil war

I feel bad for the Lebanese civilians. I’d recommend stopping missile attacks into Israel. IMO, not wise to attack a neighbor.

The Lebanese civilians are not sending missiles anywhere.

But they are coming from Lebanese terriority and that is the problem.

 

[Gospel]

It’s logical for Israel to address hostilities originating from Lebanese territory. However, what wouldn't make sense is ignoring the opportunity to collaborate with any friendly factions in Lebanon. Ensuring Lebanon’s stability would help prevent a power vacuum that could draw Iran and Hezbollah even deeper into the country's affairs. Just don't destabilize Lebanon and these efforts just might work in Israel's favor. Otherwise it's back to the 1980's Lebanon.

 

[Elixir]

However, what wouldn't make sense is ignoring the opportunity to collaborate with any friendly factions in Lebanon.

<clears throat>
It makes perfect sense in light of what we know about Bibi’s motives.
Peace = Prison

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It’s logical for Israel to address hostilities originating from Lebanese territory. However, what wouldn't make sense is ignoring the opportunity to collaborate with any friendly factions in Lebanon. Ensuring Lebanon’s stability would help prevent a power vacuum that could draw Iran and Hezbollah even deeper into the country's affairs. Just don't destabilize Lebanon and these efforts just might work in Israel's favor. Otherwise it's back to the 1980's Lebanon.

Indeed, the comm blackout read a lot like a start to something bigger. And this was that something bigger. But in the real world, especially regarding terrorism, there isn't much "capture the flag". Managing Hezbollah and Hamas is much more than just taking out a leader here or there. What is the long-term plan.

The issue with Hezbollah is this mission would appear to date to the October 7th atrocity and a decision was made to pull no punches. Netanyahu is not a smart man. So while he has an opportunity here, I doubt he has the capacity to make something of it. This war is protecting his ass from prison, and as a super hardliner, he is the absolute last person you want advocating for your rights in any forum for peace.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

It’s logical for Israel to address hostilities originating from Lebanese territory. However, what wouldn't make sense is ignoring the opportunity to collaborate with any friendly factions in Lebanon. Ensuring Lebanon’s stability would help prevent a power vacuum that could draw Iran and Hezbollah even deeper into the country's affairs. Just don't destabilize Lebanon and these efforts just might work in Israel's favor. Otherwise it's back to the 1980's Lebanon.

Israel has no ability to stabilize Lebanon because of all the Iranian money being spent to mess it up.

 

[Elixir]

Israel has no ability to stabilize Lebanon because of all the Iranian money being spent to mess it up.

^THAT.
Bibi and the Ayatollah have common interest in keeping Lebanon fertile ground for terrorism.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

It’s logical for Israel to address hostilities originating from Lebanese territory. However, what wouldn't make sense is ignoring the opportunity to collaborate with any friendly factions in Lebanon. Ensuring Lebanon’s stability would help prevent a power vacuum that could draw Iran and Hezbollah even deeper into the country's affairs. Just don't destabilize Lebanon and these efforts just might work in Israel's favor. Otherwise it's back to the 1980's Lebanon.

Indeed, the comm blackout read a lot like a start to something bigger. And this was that something bigger. But in the real world, especially regarding terrorism, there isn't much "capture the flag". Managing Hezbollah and Hamas is much more than just taking out a leader here or there. What is the long-term plan.

The issue with Hezbollah is this mission would appear to date to the October 7th atrocity and a decision was made to pull no punches. Netanyahu is not a smart man. So while he has an opportunity here, I doubt he has the capacity to make something of it. This war is protecting his ass from prison, and as a super hardliner, he is the absolute last person you want advocating for your rights in any forum for peace.

You still ignore the Iranian money.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Israel has no ability to stabilize Lebanon because of all the Iranian money being spent to mess it up.

^THAT.
Bibi and the Ayatollah have common interest in keeping Lebanon fertile ground for terrorism.

Bibi gains nothing from it. There's always going to be Iranian violence, the only question is where.

 

[Elixir]

Israel has no ability to stabilize Lebanon because of all the Iranian money being spent to mess it up.

^THAT.
Bibi and the Ayatollah have common interest in keeping Lebanon fertile ground for terrorism.

Bibi gains nothing from it. There's always going to be Iranian violence, the only question is where.

It has to be on Bibi’s border or the people won’t buy into the urgency.
Things are going to stay very hot for as long as that guy is in power. Just watch.

 

[Tigers!]

Israel has no ability to stabilize Lebanon because of all the Iranian money being spent to mess it up.

^THAT.
Bibi and the Ayatollah have common interest in keeping Lebanon fertile ground for terrorism.

Unfortunately Lebanon was unstable long before Bibi came along. He is not helping but he did not start it.

 

[Elixir]

Israel has no ability to stabilize Lebanon because of all the Iranian money being spent to mess it up.

^THAT.
Bibi and the Ayatollah have common interest in keeping Lebanon fertile ground for terrorism.

Unfortunately Lebanon was unstable long before Bibi came along. He is not helping but he did not start it.

So what? Bibi AND the Iranians now benefit from the chaos. Nobody is gonna stop it any time soon.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It’s logical for Israel to address hostilities originating from Lebanese territory. However, what wouldn't make sense is ignoring the opportunity to collaborate with any friendly factions in Lebanon. Ensuring Lebanon’s stability would help prevent a power vacuum that could draw Iran and Hezbollah even deeper into the country's affairs. Just don't destabilize Lebanon and these efforts just might work in Israel's favor. Otherwise it's back to the 1980's Lebanon.

Indeed, the comm blackout read a lot like a start to something bigger. And this was that something bigger. But in the real world, especially regarding terrorism, there isn't much "capture the flag". Managing Hezbollah and Hamas is much more than just taking out a leader here or there. What is the long-term plan.

The issue with Hezbollah is this mission would appear to date to the October 7th atrocity and a decision was made to pull no punches. Netanyahu is not a smart man. So while he has an opportunity here, I doubt he has the capacity to make something of it. This war is protecting his ass from prison, and as a super hardliner, he is the absolute last person you want advocating for your rights in any forum for peace.

You still ignore the Iranian money.

No, I didn't. I made a post, not a thesis. Iran would indeed be a part of the problem that Israel's actions would need to address... something that is not actually addressable.

 

[Gospel]

It’s logical for Israel to address hostilities originating from Lebanese territory. However, what wouldn't make sense is ignoring the opportunity to collaborate with any friendly factions in Lebanon. Ensuring Lebanon’s stability would help prevent a power vacuum that could draw Iran and Hezbollah even deeper into the country's affairs. Just don't destabilize Lebanon and these efforts just might work in Israel's favor. Otherwise it's back to the 1980's Lebanon.

Israel has no ability to stabilize Lebanon because of all the Iranian money being spent to mess it up.

This is where the collaboration with allies in Lebanon that I mentioned comes in. It's clear that the Lebanese government is already feeling the impact, which will inevitably escalate tensions between them and Hezbollah. While the government may not currently be in a position to oust Hezbollah on its own, I’m confident they would seize any opportunity to do so, especially if Hezbollah is weakened—something Israel is clearly aiming for at the moment.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Israel has no ability to stabilize Lebanon because of all the Iranian money being spent to mess it up.

^THAT.
Bibi and the Ayatollah have common interest in keeping Lebanon fertile ground for terrorism.

Unfortunately Lebanon was unstable long before Bibi came along. He is not helping but he did not start it.

Long before?

 

[Harry Bosch]

It’s logical for Israel to address hostilities originating from Lebanese territory. However, what wouldn't make sense is ignoring the opportunity to collaborate with any friendly factions in Lebanon. Ensuring Lebanon’s stability would help prevent a power vacuum that could draw Iran and Hezbollah even deeper into the country's affairs. Just don't destabilize Lebanon and these efforts just might work in Israel's favor. Otherwise it's back to the 1980's Lebanon.

Israel has no ability to stabilize Lebanon because of all the Iranian money being spent to mess it up.

This is where the collaboration with allies in Lebanon that I mentioned comes in. It's clear that the Lebanese government is already feeling the impact, which will inevitably escalate tensions between them and Hezbollah. While the government may not currently be in a position to oust Hezbollah on its own, I’m confident they would seize any opportunity to do so, especially if Hezbollah is weakened—something Israel is clearly aiming for at the moment.

Yep. And it appears that Iran is abandoning Lebanon.