Don2 (Don1 Revised)
Contributor
In the US...will we have a coup, insurrection, civil war, something violent, riots, people breaking Dear Leader out of jail, ...? Is he going to write a book called My Struggle in prison?
In order to try to navigate this question, let's break it down into two phases: before Election Day and after Election Day.
Pre-Election Day
Will Trump end up in prison? Will this actually affect anything at all or make him even more popular? Remember that the conservative media and propaganda are extremely powerful. They've managed to convince an extraordinary number of Republicans and some independents over time that the 2020 Election was stolen. They've also been hammering on Trump being unfairly convicted and so if we extrapolate based on past patterns, their narrative is going to win. Republicans are not going to throw away Trump but the numbers of those supporting him will increase instead (at least based on this pattern). Many Republicans in the past have said they'd not support Trump under specific circumstances and they've gone back on their word. His cult personality and grip on propaganda are too strong for any significant opposition in the ranks.
The state of the country will be very politically polar, more so than it has been, and unstable.
But what else will happen during this phase? Would more Trump convictions actually do anything at all? If he went to prison, how would the guards, typically conservatives, treat him? Sympathy would play out, but to what extent among independents?
What else will Republicans do? This is an open question for forum members.
There's some kind of Biden impeachment inquiry or whatever going on and so will they impeach Biden in the House right before Election Day and then hand over the reins to the Senate right afterward to make it an issue? They could probably include some surprises in there to play out in the media. Say, for example, someone on a legal team in one of the Trump cases contacted someone in the DOJ for legal advice on some arcane issue, then they could re-frame that into a conspiracy between the DOJ (i.e. they'll call it "Biden's administration") and the prosecution.
Post-Election Day
What kind of electoral scenarios are there?
This is possibly the easiest scenario to think about. Biden would concede. People would be disappointed. A convicted felon would be President, he'd be appealing the verdicts and calling for immunity, etc. As someone very old, he might die in office or get severe dementia by the time he leaves office and therefore never really face accountability for his actions.
Post-Election Day - Biden wins hands-down
There would probably be a lot of noise on social media and there might even be some events by some lunatics. There might be some court challenges, too. But I think there would just be too many big hurdles for many Republicans to try to engage in shenanigans. So I'd expect some short-term instability and then for it to peter out.
Post-Election Day - Election Results are very close
I find it hard to believe there would be another coup attempt in Congress. Here's why. The majority of the House are Republicans. By January, they'd all be marching in lockstep to certify Trump or deny certain state results or whatever their strategy would end up being to install Trump. I don't believe they would need the threat of force from a gathering of cult members outside their workplace to get them to go along with their team winning.
But there are a lot of people, a lot of brainwashed, angry people. And those people could be utilized as resources for things. So are there other places where these people could show up? Or other ways in which they could they could impact the results between Nov and Jan if they do not like those results.
Back in the 2020 timeframe, I observed a lot of people lying on facebook about the elections, like saying they observed things they did not--like seeing thousands of ballots being driven away in a porsche and all kinds of other stories. Some of these lies made their way into the courts as well, usually perpetrated by the team crying foul...like trying to break into voting machines and then claiming they were broken into. So, based on that pattern, I expect to see a lot of that.
What may be new this time around?
Crowd-funding of legal challenges across various states?
Showing up at the various court trials of legal challenges? This has already begun with Trump's personal trials, but could it also happen en masse with paramilitary groups showing up to block rulings by certain deadlines?
Could these people show up at state assemblies or other state-level activities to use the threat of force?
What else?
In order to try to navigate this question, let's break it down into two phases: before Election Day and after Election Day.
Pre-Election Day
Will Trump end up in prison? Will this actually affect anything at all or make him even more popular? Remember that the conservative media and propaganda are extremely powerful. They've managed to convince an extraordinary number of Republicans and some independents over time that the 2020 Election was stolen. They've also been hammering on Trump being unfairly convicted and so if we extrapolate based on past patterns, their narrative is going to win. Republicans are not going to throw away Trump but the numbers of those supporting him will increase instead (at least based on this pattern). Many Republicans in the past have said they'd not support Trump under specific circumstances and they've gone back on their word. His cult personality and grip on propaganda are too strong for any significant opposition in the ranks.
The state of the country will be very politically polar, more so than it has been, and unstable.
But what else will happen during this phase? Would more Trump convictions actually do anything at all? If he went to prison, how would the guards, typically conservatives, treat him? Sympathy would play out, but to what extent among independents?
What else will Republicans do? This is an open question for forum members.
There's some kind of Biden impeachment inquiry or whatever going on and so will they impeach Biden in the House right before Election Day and then hand over the reins to the Senate right afterward to make it an issue? They could probably include some surprises in there to play out in the media. Say, for example, someone on a legal team in one of the Trump cases contacted someone in the DOJ for legal advice on some arcane issue, then they could re-frame that into a conspiracy between the DOJ (i.e. they'll call it "Biden's administration") and the prosecution.
Post-Election Day
What kind of electoral scenarios are there?
- Trump wins hands-down
- Biden wins hands-down
- Election results are very close
- Short-term no winner is declared
- Long-term no winner is declared
This is possibly the easiest scenario to think about. Biden would concede. People would be disappointed. A convicted felon would be President, he'd be appealing the verdicts and calling for immunity, etc. As someone very old, he might die in office or get severe dementia by the time he leaves office and therefore never really face accountability for his actions.
Post-Election Day - Biden wins hands-down
There would probably be a lot of noise on social media and there might even be some events by some lunatics. There might be some court challenges, too. But I think there would just be too many big hurdles for many Republicans to try to engage in shenanigans. So I'd expect some short-term instability and then for it to peter out.
Post-Election Day - Election Results are very close
I find it hard to believe there would be another coup attempt in Congress. Here's why. The majority of the House are Republicans. By January, they'd all be marching in lockstep to certify Trump or deny certain state results or whatever their strategy would end up being to install Trump. I don't believe they would need the threat of force from a gathering of cult members outside their workplace to get them to go along with their team winning.
But there are a lot of people, a lot of brainwashed, angry people. And those people could be utilized as resources for things. So are there other places where these people could show up? Or other ways in which they could they could impact the results between Nov and Jan if they do not like those results.
Back in the 2020 timeframe, I observed a lot of people lying on facebook about the elections, like saying they observed things they did not--like seeing thousands of ballots being driven away in a porsche and all kinds of other stories. Some of these lies made their way into the courts as well, usually perpetrated by the team crying foul...like trying to break into voting machines and then claiming they were broken into. So, based on that pattern, I expect to see a lot of that.
What may be new this time around?
Crowd-funding of legal challenges across various states?
Showing up at the various court trials of legal challenges? This has already begun with Trump's personal trials, but could it also happen en masse with paramilitary groups showing up to block rulings by certain deadlines?
Could these people show up at state assemblies or other state-level activities to use the threat of force?
What else?
