Why Trump Will Win the GOP Nomination

[Derec]

There are big black churches and big white ones...about equally considering the numbers of attendees.

But the total number of blacks in the US is much smaller. That's like saying about the same number of blacks and whites are on welfare or commit homicides. Technically correct but utterly meaningless and misleading due to the difference in population sizes.

I feel it is wrong to characterize black voters as religious democrats.

I think^* is it rather naive to not characterize them as such, statistically speaking.
Look at these two charts.

Note the numbers are largely constant and that actually religious and highly religious blacks identify with Democratic Party slightly more than less religious and non-religious ones.
Look at how different the picture is for non-hispanic whites.

Highly religious and religious whites are far less likely to identify as Democrats than less religious and non-religious ones.

Here, black Americans are most likely to identify as very religious and least likely to identify as non-religious.
QED.

There are some but black people I know are not particularly instructed as to their politics by preachers...Cornell West excluded.

Selection bias. Also, when have you met West?

^* I find it telling that you chose to use the verb "feel" rather than "think".

 

[Derec]

So telling the American people we should be more like Germany, have a good economy and good social services too, that will kill him?

And let millions^* of Muslim migrants in without any vetting or willingness to deport them once the commit crimes and/or refuse to integrate?


^* The million that came to Germany in 2015 alone would be equivalent to about 4 million coming to the US.

 

[angelo]

I'd rather see Bernie win the primary than Hillary. At least the former would lose fair and square based on his socialist politics, rather than some email handling bullshit.

His socialist politics will kill him?

So telling the American people we should be more like Germany, have a good economy and good social services too, that will kill him?

So it should! Doubt Americans will ever vote socialist.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

His socialist politics will kill him?

So telling the American people we should be more like Germany, have a good economy and good social services too, that will kill him?

So it should! Doubt Americans will ever vote socialist.

Run on a platform for getting rid of Medicare and Social Security and see how fast Americans dispose of the candidate.

 

[angelo]

Most anti immigrant parties are doing well all over the word. Anti moslem Gert Veeders [spel] will be the next Dutch PM on present polling. Trump may also take people with him with his anti muslim, anti migrant stance.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Most anti immigrant parties are doing well all over the word. Anti moslem Gert Veeders [spel] will be the next Dutch PM on present polling. Trump may also take people with him with his anti muslim, anti migrant stance.

Trump has alienated the Hispanic vote and it will tilt even more to the Democrats.

I understand you don't get politics in America, but in the US, you need to win all sort of people to take an election. Hispanics and Women are critical. Trump has worked hard to piss both of those groups off. The consequences is that it'll be harder to win states like Colorado, Florida, and Virginia. Trump needs to win every battleground state. And pissing off the Hispanics isn't going to get you there. Galvanizing your support in red states doesn't help at all in the United State. Most of the red states are small in population, so it doesn't gain you much in the Electoral College or Popular Vote.

 

[angelo]

It will be critical to get his supporters to put their money where their mouths are. Hispanics are by no means the majority.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It will be critical to get his supporters to put their money where their mouths are. Hispanics are by no means the majority.

Thanks for that very useful input. The Hispanics aren't the majority.

However, they will tilt states like Colorado, Florida, and Virginia easily to the D column and put states like North Carolina into play. He has done well to probably mobilize more Hispanics to vote as well, thanks to his continual attacks.

And Trump needs to win probably around 48% of women. He has done well to marginalize them as well. And especially if he faces Clinton? The out of the woodwork Trump supporters will be drowned.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Trump has been waving his family Bible around and has now stated he will appoint judges that will roll back legalized gay marriage. He is now edging towards theocratic politics. It will be interesting where he takes this from here.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Trump has been waving his family Bible around and has now stated he will appoint judges that will roll back legalized gay marriage. He is now edging towards theocratic politics. It will be interesting where he takes this from here.

I think it takes us to his not remembering that he ever said he'd do something like that and telling people to just go and fuck off if they point to a video of his saying it because he just doesn't give a shit.

 

[Source]

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Trump has been waving his family Bible around and has now stated he will appoint judges that will roll back legalized gay marriage. He is now edging towards theocratic politics. It will be interesting where he takes this from here.

I think it takes us to his not remembering that he ever said he'd do something like that and telling people to just go and fuck off if they point to a video of his saying it because he just doesn't give a shit.

Could be. But then the question is, how often can he do that before he gets pegged as a Clintonesque liar by his ex-followers? His negatives are already high, how high can they get?

 

[ronburgundy]

He's Jewish but not a hawk. He presents an interesting dilemma for Republican neocons. They can't exactly attack him for being Jewish, especially after they had a Mormon for their own candidate, considering their extreme hawkish support of the state of Israel.

Well, it presents a dillema for how they spin their attacks, but not for how they actually feel. Neocons are not pro-Jew, they are pro-war and pro control over the region, and thus pro-Israel. There are many Non-Israeli Jews (most of the reasonable ones) who are not pro-Israel in the way Republicans are. When it comes the Jews as people, most Republicans (and probably most neocons) are anti-Semitic, if anything.

Neocons support Israel as a means to the end of influence in the region and a front to funnel billions to the financial interests in the war-making market. Their second concern is their alignment with the Christian right, seeking to "keep the lights on" for the coming Messiah who they assume will be leaving all the dirty Jews behind to suffer.

 

[AthenaAwakened]

After the way she treated Obama in the 2008 primaries, I'm very surprised that Hillary is doing as well as she is among black voters.

She isn't. Bill is.