Will AI destroy capitalism?

[bilby]

I believe that, at some point, capitalism will become an ancient system. AI won't destroy it, it will eventually destroy itself.

My fear is that we re reduced to a new serfdom by the multubillionaires as they basically use their money to supplant government. We need to return to 90% marginal tax rates and especially for inheritance taxes.

Well, there are always the usual checks and balances that prevent such a system from persisting in the long term and from stopping capitalism from re-emerging. One of these checks is a populace of fed-up, poor people with weapons.

Ask the Chinese how well that's working for them.

Poor people used to have weapons that, while poor in quality, could make up for that by their sheer numbers. Modern weapons systems, likely starting with the Maxim gun, rendered popular revolt much more difficult.

Modern revolutions are typically only successful if they are led by fed up military officers with subordinates who are more loyal to their Colonel or General than to the civilian government that nominally commands.

Fed up poor people just get massacred, unless they can get a large fraction of the army to back them.

The US Gravy Seals like to talk a big game about their AR-15s and other pseudo-military accessories being needed to prevent tyranny; But the reality is that a tyrant in the Oval Office would be untouchable by those fools, as long as he retains command of the real armed forces - particularly the National Guard.

If things are so bad that National Guard units decide to overthrow the US Government, privately owned firearms won't be needed; If they are not, then they won't be anywhere close to sufficient.

A bunch of peasants with pitchforks and scythes were a real threat to a kingdom, back in the days before gunpowder, and before standing armies - indeed, in many cases, those peasants were the army.

Those days are long gone.

 

[bilby]

I believe that, at some point, capitalism will become an ancient system. AI won't destroy it, it will eventually destroy itself.

Why do you think that? It's survived some terrible calamities: banking crisis, covid, supply chain debacle, and it just keeps marching forward in the US.

Capitalism relies on scarcity and competition to function. In a scenario where resources become infinitely abundant (VIA space colonization), the very foundation of supply, demand, and profit would be disrupted, leading to the system's self-destruction.

Space colonization can no more lead to infinitely abundant resources than could Earth-bound colonization.

Indeed, one might expect it to lead to more supply, more demand, and more profit, just as it's terrestrial counterpart did, even (perhaps particularly) with no Martians to enslave as cheap local labour.

 

[Elixir]

I've heard it argued (and it makes sense) that AI can help make business more predatory.

Predatory businesses will exploit any available resource or tactic to further their exploitative practices. This is similar to how some individuals, often males, will find ways to turn new discoveries into weapons of mass destruction. Even if humans stopped innovating, this tendency wouldn't change.

Indeed. Intelligence may well be a lethal mutation.
Probably why aliens never contacted us.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I believe that, at some point, capitalism will become an ancient system. AI won't destroy it, it will eventually destroy itself.

My fear is that we re reduced to a new serfdom by the multubillionaires as they basically use their money to supplant government. We need to return to 90% marginal tax rates and especially for inheritance taxes.

Well, there are always the usual checks and balances that prevent such a system from persisting in the long term and from stopping capitalism from re-emerging. One of these checks is a populace of fed-up, poor people with weapons.

Ask the Chinese how well that's working for them.

Poor people used to have weapons that, while poor in quality, could make up for that by their sheer numbers. Modern weapons systems, likely starting with the Maxim gun, rendered popular revolt much more difficult.

It comes down to when the army no longer supports the government. We almost saw a revolution in China in 1989.

 

[Gospel]

I believe that, at some point, capitalism will become an ancient system. AI won't destroy it, it will eventually destroy itself.

Why do you think that? It's survived some terrible calamities: banking crisis, covid, supply chain debacle, and it just keeps marching forward in the US.

Capitalism relies on scarcity and competition to function. In a scenario where resources become infinitely abundant (VIA space colonization), the very foundation of supply, demand, and profit would be disrupted, leading to the system's self-destruction.

Space colonization can no more lead to infinitely abundant resources than could Earth-bound colonization.

Indeed, one might expect it to lead to more supply, more demand, and more profit, just as it's terrestrial counterpart did, even (perhaps particularly) with no Martians to enslave as cheap local labour.

You know I'm a dreamer, bilby. Why even bother?

To me it's reasonable to presume that we could make significant advancements in resource extraction and utilization. The use of automation and artificial intelligence alone could drastically reduce the cost and increase the efficiency of resource extraction, processing, and distribution. Robots and AI could handle tasks that are labor-intensive, costly and can outlast human lifetimes making resources more abundant and cheaper. Asteroids, moons, and other planets contain metals, minerals, and other materials some of which are scarce on Earth. The sheer volume of these resources could lead to a significant increase in overall supply.

While the initial costs of space colonization, logistical challenges, and human tendencies leading to economic disparities would persist for a considerable time, once a certain level of efficiency is achieved, the foundations of capitalism could be fundamentally disrupted.

I foresee a future where, instead of religious wars, humanity will face scarcity wars. In that era, the old guard—governments and corporations—will continue attempts to control resources through patents and property law, mirroring the tactics used by today's oil industry to maintain the exploitative supply, demand, and profit chain. However, due to the vastness of space, such control will ultimately prove unsustainable.

I can't help but imagine cavemen who just discovered fire. They're amazed at how it helps them cook food and stay warm, and believes it's the pinnacle of human achievement. Now, if you were to tell a caveman about 21st-century spacecrafts the size of a giant sequoias but1,000,000lbs heavier using fire to take off and land vertically, he'd scoff and say, 'you can't do that with fire. the most we can do with this shit is cook'.

Similarly, the argument that space colonization cannot disrupt the supply and demand model due to overabundance is based on our current challenges and limitations. However, if technological advancements continue at their current pace, it’s conceivable that by the 200th century, humans will be enjoying free 1,000-year-time-dilated whiskey while gazing at what appear to be stars from the beaches of a terraformed Mars—only to realize they are actually observing an immense network of AI-operated, nuclear-powered machines running an ever-expanding and evolving supply chain of hundreds of thousands of 700,000 square kilometer space freighters on solar sails.

 

[pood]

You know I'm a dreamer, bilby. Why even bother?

To me it's reasonable to presume that we could make significant advancements in resource extraction and utilization. The use of automation and artificial intelligence alone could drastically reduce the cost and increase the efficiency of resource extraction, processing, and distribution. Robots and AI could handle tasks that are labor-intensive, costly and can outlast human lifetimes making resources more abundant and cheaper. Asteroids, moons, and other planets contain metals, minerals, and other materials some of which are scarce on Earth. The sheer volume of these resources could lead to a significant increase in overall supply.

While the initial costs of space colonization, logistical challenges, and human tendencies leading to economic disparities would persist for a considerable time, once a certain level of efficiency is achieved, the foundations of capitalism could be fundamentally disrupted.

I foresee a future where, instead of religious wars, humanity will face scarcity wars. In that era, the old guard—governments and corporations—will continue attempts to control resources through patents and property law, mirroring the tactics used by today's oil industry to maintain the exploitative supply, demand, and profit chain. However, due to the vastness of space, such control will ultimately prove unsustainable.

I can't help but imagine cavemen who just discovered fire. They're amazed at how it helps them cook food and stay warm, and believes it's the pinnacle of human achievement. Now, if you were to tell a caveman about 21st-century spacecrafts the size of a giant sequoias but1,000,000lbs heavier using fire to take off and land vertically, he'd scoff and say, 'you can't do that with fire. the most we can do with this shit is cook'.

Similarly, the argument that space colonization cannot disrupt the supply and demand model due to overabundance is based on our current challenges and limitations. However, if technological advancements continue at their current pace, it’s conceivable that by the 200th century, humans will be enjoying free 1,000-year-time-dilated whiskey while gazing at what appear to be stars from the beaches of a terraformed Mars—only to realize they are actually observing an immense network of AI-operated, nuclear-powered machines running an ever-expanding and evolving supply chain of hundreds of thousands of 700,000 square kilometer space freighters on solar sails.

Or, what I suspect is more likely, by the 200th century we’ll be extinct or living in caves again. I suspect that tech civilization will prove a short-lived phenomenon.

 

[Gospel]

You could be right.

 

[pood]

Speaking of extinction, a new study indicates the AMOC could collapse by the late 2030s — an eventuality that could leave all of England covered in Arctic ice, among numerous other catastrophes.

 

[bilby]

I believe that, at some point, capitalism will become an ancient system. AI won't destroy it, it will eventually destroy itself.

My fear is that we re reduced to a new serfdom by the multubillionaires as they basically use their money to supplant government. We need to return to 90% marginal tax rates and especially for inheritance taxes.

Well, there are always the usual checks and balances that prevent such a system from persisting in the long term and from stopping capitalism from re-emerging. One of these checks is a populace of fed-up, poor people with weapons.

Ask the Chinese how well that's working for them.

Poor people used to have weapons that, while poor in quality, could make up for that by their sheer numbers. Modern weapons systems, likely starting with the Maxim gun, rendered popular revolt much more difficult.

It comes down to when the army no longer supports the government. We almost saw a revolution in China in 1989.

Exactly. And the problem with that is that, while people's revolutions often end up putting totalitarian, authoritarian strong-men in charge, military revolutions do so even more often.

There's a reason why so many tinpot dictators are called "Colonel This" or "General That".

A China run by the People's Liberation Army would not likely be more free and open than one run by the Communist Party. Such a revolution would be of little benefit to the average man-in-the-street.

 

[bilby]

it’s conceivable that by the 200th century, humans will be enjoying free 1,000-year-time-dilated whiskey

What, no "Tea, Earl Grey, Hot"?

 

[bilby]

Speaking of extinction, a new study indicates the AMOC could collapse by the late 2030s — an eventuality that could leave all of England covered in Arctic ice, among numerous other catastrophes.

I grew up in the North of England; Folk there would just put on a T-Shirt. In Scotland, they would refer to such a climatic disaster as "January".

 

[Gospel]

Speaking of extinction, a new study indicates the AMOC could collapse by the late 2030s — an eventuality that could leave all of England covered in Arctic ice, among numerous other catastrophes.

That just means Americans will have another thing in common with Brits. A cold sense of humor.

Edit: That would be the other catastrophe.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

It comes down to when the army no longer supports the government. We almost saw a revolution in China in 1989.

Exactly. And the problem with that is that, while people's revolutions often end up putting totalitarian, authoritarian strong-men in charge, military revolutions do so even more often.

There's a reason why so many tinpot dictators are called "Colonel This" or "General That".

A China run by the People's Liberation Army would not likely be more free and open than one run by the Communist Party. Such a revolution would be of little benefit to the average man-in-the-street.

I think you misunderstood me.

What happened in China was that much of the army wouldn't put down the protests. We eventually saw a massacre when they brought in some troops from far away and brainwashed them. Had they not been able to do that we would have seen a nearly bloodless revolution like we saw in various places in Eastern Europe. And those have mostly been good for the people.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Recent events show what I'm talking about with the army:

Bangladesh army refused to suppress protest, sealing Hasina’s fate

Her army chief told her that his soldiers would be unable to implement the lockdown she had called for. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

The army won't put down the rebellion, the disliked leader left. Not completely bloodless as 91 people have died in the events leading up to this, but neither is this the level of bloodshed that ensures the new regime is vile.