Will Biden drop out? Who replaces him?

[Derec]

She also says that her community does not have the option to lose, because it is the sort of community whose people are likely to be deported

So "her community" is the illegals?

and to be sent to jails like Rikers Island.

You have to commit (or at least be suspected) of violent crimes to be sent to Rikers these days. Most people just get RORed these days. Even those who, for example, steal and get pinched over and over again just keep getting desk appearance tickets. And chances are that fauxgressive DAs like Alvin Bragg won't even prosecute you unless your name is Daniel Perry or Donald Trump.

 

[Derec]

I don’t want any town halls or vetting. That was Carville’s cockamamie idea.

It actually was a good idea. There should be some sort of contest where the eventual candidate gains some bona fide legitimacy. If KH prevails, so be it. But she should not just be handed the nomination on a silver platter.

But perhaps Biden is taking his time to bow out in order to make even a compressed "blitz" nominating contest impossible and smooth the way for a Kamala coronation.

 

[Derec]

Yup. Two of Allan Lichtman's keys are Incumbency and Contest (lack of a contest for the nomination).
Until that disastrous first debate, Joe Biden had both of these keys, but he now risks losing one or both of them.

We are in uncharted waters here. Yes, lack of incumbency is a detriment. I am not sure a contest is. 2008 was a vigorous contest among Dems and the Dem candidate won. In 2016 DNC made it a de facto Hillary coronation and she lost. Imagine that in 2016 Biden and Hillary went mano a mano against each other. Whoever prevailed (probably Biden, let's be honest) would have been a stronger candidate than Hillary spared this kind of challenge was.
But the question is not whether loss of these "keys" is a detriment, but how much it is a detriment relative to the detriment of sticking with JB who is visibly in decline and who performed disastrously in the first debate.
Does anybody really think he will perform better in the second debate? And if he doesn't, Trump may well start taking the Oval Office drapes out of storage.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Conjectures about shat might have happened are just that. Your examples are appreciated and instructive (much more for Republicans).

The Democrats have no success in replacing their POTUS candidate. None. What makes them think replacing one now will generate s different outcome? It boggles what little is left of my mind that the Democratic Party thinks replacing Biden instead of working harder will generate a victory for them.

Replacing the candidate this late is a risky gambit, sure.
But staying with Biden is at least as risky. And the deficiencies he has shown in the debate and in the interviews, as well as frailty that was for example demonstrated in this clip will not get better, as he is not getting any younger.

So changing the candidate, as risky as that is, is most likely the right move here. Your argument ignores the risk of sticking with Biden. What if he performs even worse in the second debate? Or falls Giuliani-style?

We are electing someone to run a desk, not a marathon.

I care about their minds and positions, not their bodies.

This focus on his supposed weakness to me says he's actually good--if there were real issues why are they being ignored in favor of things that aren't important?

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Only hard right wing MAGA fanatics think there is anything wrong with Biden.

Biden isn't in good physical shape. But being in good physical shape isn't a requirement of the presidency. The president has one job and it's entirely upstairs.

 

[barbos]

I hear that money which were donated to Biden's campaign are not really his campaign money, meaning donors can recall them. Is that true?

 

[barbos]

Only hard right wing MAGA fanatics think there is anything wrong with Biden.

Biden isn't in good physical shape. But being in good physical shape isn't a requirement of the presidency. The president has one job and it's entirely upstairs.

Cool, make Biden say so. And it's not his physical shape. Bad physical shape means being fat. Lots of fat people are medically and mentally OK or even great. Biden is not fat, his problem is that he is about to die from underlying medical conditions which clearly include Parkinson. And many, including mysefl say he displays symptoms of early stage dementia.

 

[Politesse]

I hear that money which were donated to Biden's campaign are not really his campaign money, meaning donors can recall them. Is that true?

Campaign donaations can be refunded and often are if a candidate drops out, but a donor cannot demand their money back. A donation is a donation.

A pledge is another matter; these are unenforceable until the transfer of money is actually made.

 

[barbos]

I hear that money which were donated to Biden's campaign are not really his campaign money, meaning donors can recall them. Is that true?

Campaign donaations can be refunded and often are if a candidate drops out, but a donor cannot demand their money back. A donation is a donation.

A pledge is another matter; these are unenforceable until the transfer of money is actually made.

So, what if all the big donors money are in the form of pledges?

 

[Politesse]

I hear that money which were donated to Biden's campaign are not really his campaign money, meaning donors can recall them. Is that true?

Campaign donaations can be refunded and often are if a candidate drops out, but a donor cannot demand their money back. A donation is a donation.

A pledge is another matter; these are unenforceable until the transfer of money is actually made.

So, what if all the big donors money are in the form of pledges?

They aren't. The Biden Victory Fund has amassed one of the largest campaign acccounts in American history, and it will be Harris' to use if she is the nominee. What they are concerned about are ongoing major donors who had pledged considerable sums but now are in doubt, possibly resulting in less than 30 million in donations this July when 50 were expected. This is a disaster for planning. But the campaign is not going to be destitute, they have raised over $150m in reserve last I saw anything in print.

 

[Spacetime Inhabitant]

Only hard right wing MAGA fanatics think there is anything wrong with Biden.

Biden isn't in good physical shape. But being in good physical shape isn't a requirement of the presidency. The president has one job and it's entirely upstairs.

Cool, make Biden say so. And it's not his physical shape. Bad physical shape means being fat. Lots of fat people are medically and mentally OK or even great. Biden is not fat, his problem is that he is about to die from underlying medical conditions which clearly include Parkinson. And many, including mysefl say he displays symptoms of early stage dementia.

Biden has none of the symptoms of Parkijnson, and his dementia is mainly in your head, whereas Trump's real dementia is in Trump's head.
Biden is also more physically fit then Trump. You have no basis to say that Biden is about to die. His doctors know his real condition, and if he was "about to die" then he would not have hesitated to step down for another candidate.

 

[barbos]

Biden has none of the symptoms of Parkijnson,

Doctors specialized in Parkinson disagree with you.

 

[barbos]

and his dementia is mainly in your head, whereas Trump's real dementia is in Trump's head.

Biden has dementia.

 

[barbos]

Biden is also more physically fit then Trump.

He is not overweight, but since he has parkinson that "fitness" is useless.

 

[barbos]

I hear that money which were donated to Biden's campaign are not really his campaign money, meaning donors can recall them. Is that true?

Campaign donaations can be refunded and often are if a candidate drops out, but a donor cannot demand their money back. A donation is a donation.

A pledge is another matter; these are unenforceable until the transfer of money is actually made.

So, what if all the big donors money are in the form of pledges?

They aren't. The Biden Victory Fund has amassed one of the largest campaign acccounts in American history, and it will be Harris' to use if she is the nominee. What they are concerned about are ongoing major donors who had pledged considerable sums but now are in doubt, possibly resulting in less than 30 million in donations this July when 50 were expected. This is a disaster for planning. But the campaign is not going to be destitute, they have raised over $150m in reserve last I saw anything in print.

Well, we will see. Even if it is the way you say it is. Donors can simply politely ask to return the money, and it would not look good on Biden.

 

[Swammerdami]

Replacing the candidate this late is a risky gambit, sure.
But staying with Biden is at least as risky. And the deficiencies he has shown in the debate and in the interviews, as well as frailty that was for example demonstrated in this clip will not get better, as he is not getting any younger.

So changing the candidate, as risky as that is, is most likely the right move here. Your argument ignores the risk of sticking with Biden. What if he performs even worse in the second debate? Or falls Giuliani-style?

THIS video is supposed to be some great "Gotcha!" evidence? Wow!

I'm been walking down stairs more carefully than that for years. Not because I'm decrepit; I just don't enjoy tripping.

If that's evidence I'm in cognitive decline, I'll repeat the age-old challenge: "Backgammon? Cribbage? What's your best two-handed game?"