Will China Invade Taiwan?

[SLD]

And if so, what should be the U.S. response?

There’s been a lot of talk about China invading Taiwan in the next few years. CINCPAC warned Congress it could happen very soon. Recently, the Chinese Navy “surrounded” Taiwan, conducting exercises to demonstrate their capabilities. Xi has said he doesn’t want to leave unification to the next generation. And he’s 67.

Personally I’m skeptical though that China would try and launch a full scale invasion. The political and military risks are too great. This isn’t just some river crossing. China doesn’t have much of an amphibious capability. They have one aircraft carrier and minimal ASW experience. They risk US and many other nations involvement which would threaten trade relations throughout the world.

Furthermore, it’s not clear they could take the island, although they could do enormous damage to it. Taiwan has significant military assets, and it’s possible they could hit any invasion force pretty hard and make any attempted occupation very, very costly. That’s even if no one comes to Taiwan’s aid. And if the U.S. surreptitiously sends its subs into the strait (which is shallow so that’s risky) they could effectively thwart any invasion fleet.

So I’m a bit skeptical that they would risk such an overt attempt. But they are likely to do further things to try and intimidate Taiwan into just surrendering without a shot. They may even go so far as establish a blockade. But that’s an act of war and would justify an aggressive response.

The other concern is the political independence of China’s military. Could the commanders go rogue and just do it, thus compelling China to go whole hog or give up?

There’s lots of scenarios.

Thoughts?

 

[repoman]

Will Taiwan be to Biden what Syria was to Trump?

 

[Politesse]

Will Taiwan be to Biden what Syria was to Trump?

I shouldn't think so. Our loyalties would be much clearer in the case of a conflict between China and Taiwan, and we would have the full support of the international community.

But I also think that we won't, and shouldn't, get involved in a direct military conflict with China. The problem with waging war in modern times is that everyone who plays, loses.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

China can destroy Taiwan. China can't invade Taiwan--they don't have the sealift to do it with. If you can't put enough forces on the ground fast enough without using ports the forces you land will be destroyed.

 

[Trausti]

China can destroy Taiwan. China can't invade Taiwan--they don't have the sealift to do it with. If you can't put enough forces on the ground fast enough without using ports the forces you land will be destroyed.

Yeah, but China's got a lot of young unmarried men. Like in the Korean War, it can send in wave after wave.

 

[Harry Bosch]

China can destroy Taiwan. China can't invade Taiwan--they don't have the sealift to do it with. If you can't put enough forces on the ground fast enough without using ports the forces you land will be destroyed.

Yeah, but China's got a lot of young unmarried men. Like in the Korean War, it can send in wave after wave.

In an amphibian war, the defense has a great advantage. And the Taiwan military is much more lethal than most people think.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Will Taiwan be to Biden what Syria was to Trump?

What do you mean? That the US should withdraw from helping Taiwan to defend itself?

 

[SLD]

China can destroy Taiwan. China can't invade Taiwan--they don't have the sealift to do it with. If you can't put enough forces on the ground fast enough without using ports the forces you land will be destroyed.

Yeah, but China's got a lot of young unmarried men. Like in the Korean War, it can send in wave after wave.

The straits aren’t the Yalu River. They can’t send in wave after wave.

Not saying they couldn’t win. Just that it would be extremely risky. A lot could happen in a crossing. A defeat could devastate the CCP. The PLAN would be humiliated. Xi would be tossed out.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

And if so, what should be the U.S. response?

There’s been a lot of talk about China invading Taiwan in the next few years. CINCPAC warned Congress it could happen very soon. Recently, the Chinese Navy “surrounded” Taiwan, conducting exercises to demonstrate their capabilities. Xi has said he doesn’t want to leave unification to the next generation. And he’s 67.

Personally I’m skeptical though that China would try and launch a full scale invasion. The political and military risks are too great. This isn’t just some river crossing. China doesn’t have much of an amphibious capability. They have one aircraft carrier and minimal ASW experience. They risk US and many other nations involvement which would threaten trade relations throughout the world.

Furthermore, it’s not clear they could take the island, although they could do enormous damage to it. Taiwan has significant military assets, and it’s possible they could hit any invasion force pretty hard and make any attempted occupation very, very costly. That’s even if no one comes to Taiwan’s aid. And if the U.S. surreptitiously sends its subs into the strait (which is shallow so that’s risky) they could effectively thwart any invasion fleet.

So I’m a bit skeptical that they would risk such an overt attempt. But they are likely to do further things to try and intimidate Taiwan into just surrendering without a shot. They may even go so far as establish a blockade. But that’s an act of war and would justify an aggressive response.

The other concern is the political independence of China’s military. Could the commanders go rogue and just do it, thus compelling China to go whole hog or give up?

There’s lots of scenarios.

Thoughts?

To go with your point about Xi's age, how about this:


Xi wants to be regarded by the Chinese people at large as the greatest chairman ever. So far, that's perhaps Mao - the worst of them all, but regarded as the greatest.
Now, he can try to do that with propaganda, but that only goes so far, so he reckons the only realistic chance is to take Taiwan, and maybe some islands in the South China Sea for good measure. So, he'll do it. Not yet, but when he reckons the PLA is in a better position (so, they're getting ready). But he isn't getting any younger and can't wait forever. So, the attack will probably happen in the second half of the 2020s, that is somewhere between the beginning of 2026 and the end of 2030, barring black swans (e.g., Xi has heart attack out of nowhere and dies; big breakthroughs in US military tech).

What do I think of the above scenario?

I'm not following the details, so I have pretty limited info. Based on that limited info, I would say probably something like the above will happen. But then, it's pretty limited info, so it's pretty tentative.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

China can destroy Taiwan. China can't invade Taiwan--they don't have the sealift to do it with. If you can't put enough forces on the ground fast enough without using ports the forces you land will be destroyed.

Yeah, but China's got a lot of young unmarried men. Like in the Korean War, it can send in wave after wave.

Send them how? They're going to march across the ocean? The limiting factor is building a sustainable beachhead. It's a very hard thing to do.

 

[SLD]

So today the news is indicating more air incursions by the PRC Air Force. At the same time, Putin is acting like he’s planning on reuniting Ukraine to Russia. I wonder if they’re acting in concert?

 

[Angra Mainyu]

So today the news is indicating more air incursions by the PRC Air Force. At the same time, Putin is acting like he’s planning on reuniting Ukraine to Russia. I wonder if they’re acting in concert?

I don't know, but while an invasion of a small part of Ukraine might be an option for Putin (though even that looks improbable at this point), it looks way too soon for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan (or even a blockade), so if they are working together, it's probably sabre-rattling. But maybe one of them is just taking advantage of the situation created by the actions of the other, and Putin is actually going for it (still, it looks odd; why now?).

 

[Copernicus]

So today the news is indicating more air incursions by the PRC Air Force. At the same time, Putin is acting like he’s planning on reuniting Ukraine to Russia. I wonder if they’re acting in concert?

That is possible, but it is hard to believe that this provocative behavior is intended to actually acquire more territory through war. They may be coordinating the use of military intimidation to bully their neighbors into aligning with their economic goals, since two simultaneous threats from major powers will be hard for the world to deal with. China wants control of regional natural resources and trade routes, and Russia seems to want to make Europe more dependent on its energy resources via Nord Stream. If Ukraine were to come back under its dominance, then Russia would have more control over pipelines running through that country. The US fears that Europe is becoming too influenced by Russia because of the ability of Russia to blackmail Europe by shutting down energy supplies. In Asia, China would be in a similar position to choke trade routes and economic development by its neighbors in the region. Actual war would complicate matters by isolating them from the very markets that they need to continue economic growth, so I am hoping that there is some rational thought process that will stop them from actually doing what they are threatening to do.

 

[Harry Bosch]

There is a growing theory that China wants to conquer Taiwan to take over it's microchip market:


https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/global-microchip-shortage-has-china-eyeing-taiwan

 

[barbos]

There is a growing theory that China wants to conquer Taiwan to take over it's microchip market:


https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/global-microchip-shortage-has-china-eyeing-taiwan

Martijn Rasser, a senior fellow at the Washington-based think tank Center for a New American Security is an idiot.
Taiwan does have best microchip factories, but without suppliers from other key companies from Japan/US/Europe they are all but useless.

 

[Elixir]

There is a growing theory that China wants to conquer Taiwan to take over it's microchip market:


https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/global-microchip-shortage-has-china-eyeing-taiwan

How much destruction can they wreak and still have something to "take over"?
What would such a move do to the existing customer base?

I think China will continue to try to insidiously assimilate Taiwan and the Taiwanese until distinctions become irrelevant.

 

[TomC]

I can't help but notice.
Bulking up your national power and economy using military adventures and fossil fuels and currency manipulation seems only to be a problem now that a non-EuroChristian country, China, is doing it.

Just sayin'
Tom

 

[Harry Bosch]

I can't help but notice.
Bulking up your national power and economy using military adventures and fossil fuels and currency manipulation seems only to be a problem now that a non-EuroChristian country, China, is doing it.

Just sayin'
Tom

It's not that China wants to use it's soft power to bend and influence countries to benefit China (which, I'll agree the US does). China wants to conquer Taiwan. Make it a state. Big difference. And yea, it should be condemned. The world should stand up to any country that wants to invade and take over another countries sovereignty.

 

[Harry Bosch]

There is a growing theory that China wants to conquer Taiwan to take over it's microchip market:


https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/global-microchip-shortage-has-china-eyeing-taiwan

How much destruction can they wreak and still have something to "take over"?
What would such a move do to the existing customer base?

I think China will continue to try to insidiously assimilate Taiwan and the Taiwanese until distinctions become irrelevant.

That's a really good point. China hasn't attacked yet because it will be a very difficult invasion. Taiwan has a surprisingly strong military. And of course, it's far easier to defend from an amphibious attack than to attack. If China were to succeed, Taiwan would need to be bombed to rubble - wiping out the chip factories and their expertise.

 

[barbos]

Chinese will not get these factories no matter what. It's a pipe dream, the same way occupation of Russian Naval Base in Crimea by US was a pipe dream. The moment US generals dreamed about it, Putin took over Crimea.