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Will GOP denouncements of Trump make a big difference?

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SLD

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Obviously there are hard core supporters of Trump willing to excuse just about anything he says or does. I've been listening to some right wing radio talk shows lately and it is utterly amazing how his minions, even women!, are still supporting him.

But many GOP leaders are not. They are abandoning him, even pledging not to vote for him. Alabama Governor Bentley is one of them, but considering his own impending impeachment by other Republicans for his own sex scandal, that may not mean much. But other GOP congressmen, and governors are also denouncing him and withdrawing their endorsements. Obviously there's a war going on between Ryan and Trump now too - even though Ryan has refused so far to say he won't vote for him.

What will that mean though to the race? Will they drag enough of Republicans to the same to tilt the race in key battleground states against Trump? And I mean for the long term. Yes, polls have shown a sharp drop in his support, but polls are temporary snap shots, and I suspect normally he'd rebound regardless. It's still a long way to November 8th. And without the chance for him to fuck up in a debate (where he just doesn't do well against a pro like Clinton), I suspect he could still rally his troopers. But without GOP leadership support, will it be enough?

SLD
 
SLD said:
Obviously there are hard core supporters of Trump willing to excuse just about anything he says or does. I've been listening to some right wing radio talk shows lately and it is utterly amazing how his minions, even women!, are still supporting him.

But many GOP leaders are not. They are abandoning him, even pledging not to vote for him. Alabama Governor Bentley is one of them, but considering his own impending impeachment by other Republicans for his own sex scandal, that may not mean much. But other GOP congressmen, and governors are also denouncing him and withdrawing their endorsements. Obviously there's a war going on between Ryan and Trump now too - even though Ryan has refused so far to say he won't vote for him.

What will that mean though to the race? Will they drag enough of Republicans to the same to tilt the race in key battleground states against Trump? And I mean for the long term. Yes, polls have shown a sharp drop in his support, but polls are temporary snap shots, and I suspect normally he'd rebound regardless. It's still a long way to November 8th. And without the chance for him to fuck up in a debate (where he just doesn't do well against a pro like Clinton), I suspect he could still rally his troopers. But without GOP leadership support, will it be enough?

SLD
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Some Republican names are so committed to Clinton presently that to backtrack would be worse than voting Clinton.

I think the worst thing that could happen that would turn people back to Trumpty is something utterly terrible coming out about Clinton. Personally I don't think it's out there so long as Bill keeps his dick in his pants.
 
The GOP demouncements are a symptom of the Repug growing civil war. This is really bad timing for any party. Trump's action since the tape revelation have been largely about shoring up the base. However, I think this is clearly coming with the cost of significant losses of those middle voters. One of the things I read that I thought was interesting was a point that basically said that Trump was like a victim found nearly dead on the side of the road. Yeah, saving him that day, even if painful, allows him to fight another day. But what to after the cost of that fight? Basically, the answer was a dead end political alley. Especially as early voting has already started. I suspect that the odds of the Dems gaining control of the Senate have and will continue to improve. And Repugs are going to have to double down to stem the losses in the House to boot.

I think that the Repugs are going to even have more infighting over the 2016 postmortem than in 2012. And the demographic brick wall that they have hit will only be taller in 2020. They picked a WS guy in 2012, and now a outsider maniac. They may convince themselves that they need a True Conservative (aka Ted Cruz or such) next time, but a modern evangelical version of Barry Goldwater won't sell well in 2020 either. The Repugs will need to reform somehow before 2020, or the national hemorrhaging will just continue...
 
I suspect that few voters who thought Trump was acceptable a week ago would care much about his admitted sexual assaults or denouncements by GOP leaders.
The one's for whom this matters (while everything else he's said and done didn't) would likely abstain or vote 3rd party rather than switch to Hillary. That still helps her, just like any liberals or Dems abstaining or voting Jill Stein is helping Trump. But each such person amounts to a half a vote change rather than a full vote (just like baseball team A losing a game moves Team B a half game up in the standings).
 
SLD said:
What will that mean though to the race?
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The presidential race? Nothing. Trump's chance of winning went from 0.0% to 0.00%.

They're doing this to save their own skins and hang on to at least one part of Congress. There's nothing noble going on here.
 
The GOP has conceded the Presidential race. Right now, they have two concerns - can they keep control of the House (the Senate is likely gone) and what will happen with their party after November.

For the first, they need the Trump supporters because if they stay home in a huff, that's a lot less people out at the polls voting for the down ballot candidates. They also need to distance themselves from Trump because not doing so will mean a lot less people out at the polls voting for the down ballot candidates. They don't know how to reconcile those two needs and it's funny watching them try.

For the second, they need the Trump supporters because they come out and vote in the primaries, so they can't distance themselves from him too much. They also need non-Trump supporters because his backers are fucking crazy and not distancing themselves from them will leave them in the exact same situation four years from now. They don't know how to reconcile those two needs and it's funny watching them try.
 
I don't think the civil war could have happened before this catastrophe.
 
Tom Sawyer said:
The GOP has conceded the Presidential race. Right now, they have two concerns - can they keep control of the House (the Senate is likely gone) and what will happen with their party after November.

For the first, they need the Trump supporters because if they stay home in a huff, that's a lot less people out at the polls voting for the down ballot candidates. They also need to distance themselves from Trump because not doing so will mean a lot less people out at the polls voting for the down ballot candidates. They don't know how to reconcile those two needs and it's funny watching them try.
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That is the lot of it. How do you keep Trump supporters happy while not pissing off moderates/independents and vica versa. Currently, they had done a good job as the Republicans aren't getting crushed in the Senate races.
 
Now McCain has withdrawn his support for the Trumpster. How might that affect Arizona? It's always voted. Repub, but always on the cusp. Could McCain's withdrawal and Trump attacking him cause enough of a shift?

Losing that many electoral votes would kill the Trump campaign. There'd be no way to recover. We'll know in about a week after new polls come out.

SLD
 
SLD said:
What will that mean though to the race?
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In many cases, I don't think they'll affect this race, but they may be hoping that in the next election they face, they can distance themselves from the fiasco.
 
The defections matter. Not to Trump's fully invested 38% -- they've had the full measure of the man like the rest of us have had, and they like what they see. I don't understand a particle of their admiration, but they like what they see. But the uncommitted voters -- which must by now be a few % points -- those who, largely, hate both HRC and DJT but still might vote for one of them -- it has to be a factor that Donald has no major newspaper endorsement ANYWHERE, in any state (at least this was true as of last week) and that from the Republican speaker on down, there are now members of his own party who are stepping around him like he's something nasty on the sidewalk. That's unprecedented in our history. (Have we ever had a major party candidate who had defections of this magnitude? If we've had any such situation that even approaches the Trump Defection Caravan, I've never heard of it.) By contrast, HRC has the Prez doing stump speeches, and he's at a nice 55% approval rating -- which, by the way, also dulls the Republican iteration that 'the people' are sick of Democrat rule and ready to revolt over Obamacare, etc., etc.
 
ideologyhunter said:
The defections matter. Not to Trump's fully invested 38% -- they've had the full measure of the man like the rest of us have had, and they like what they see. I don't understand a particle of their admiration, but they like what they see. But the uncommitted voters -- which must by now be a few % points -- those who, largely, hate both HRC and DJT but still might vote for one of them -- it has to be a factor that Donald has no major newspaper endorsement ANYWHERE, in any state (at least this was true as of last week) and that from the Republican speaker on down, there are now members of his own party who are stepping around him like he's something nasty on the sidewalk. That's unprecedented in our history. (Have we ever had a major party candidate who had defections of this magnitude? If we've had any such situation that even approaches the Trump Defection Caravan, I've never heard of it.) By contrast, HRC has the Prez doing stump speeches, and he's at a nice 55% approval rating -- which, by the way, also dulls the Republican iteration that 'the people' are sick of Democrat rule and ready to revolt over Obamacare, etc., etc.
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At first I thought you said defecations...

This is Clinton's election to lose. Something outside the election proper, outside Trump's stupidity, is the only thing that might get this major, once-in-a-lifetime, ass-clown elected. Do the Ruskies have something up their sleeve? Are they going to launch some cruise missles somewhere?

It would be nice to see Ryan do a major smackdown and stop tiptoeing around this ignoramus. Longterm that is in his best political interest as who really wants to hitch their wagon to the core republican constituency anymore.

And, yes, Bill, please do keep your dick in your pants for at least the next month.
 
joedad said:
It would be nice to see Ryan do a major smackdown and stop tiptoeing around this ignoramus. Longterm that is in his best political interest as who really wants to hitch their wagon to the core republican constituency anymore.
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The Republicans do. The issue that Ryan and the other faces is that they need to get through the next primary before they get to the next election. The Trump supporters come out and vote in those primaries in large numbers.
 
SLD said:
...
What will that mean though to the race? Will they drag enough of Republicans to the same to tilt the race in key battleground states against Trump? ...
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It's a chicken and egg issue. Is the leadership leading from behind and only daring to speak up when public sentiment is right? Or did Trump finally cross some line in their personal sense of impropriety? The latest poll in Utah shows Clinton and Trump both at 26% with the third and fourth parties close behind. Utah's 70% Republican and the governor just dis-endorsed Trump. Not that Utah counts so much. But it's obvious a consensus is approaching. And it's a big step to abandon the party's nominee. If the polls somehow reversed there'd be a terrible backlash.
 
GOP officials:
First he came for the Mexicans, and I did not speak out
Because I was not a Mexican....
 
I think they will harm downticket races all over. The true Trumpsters are anti establishment. And so if Trump says "screw the GOP establishment," they will screw the GOP establishment.

Sad!
 
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