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Will human population and economic activity exceed the Planets carrying capacity?

Will human population and economic activity exceed the Planets carrying capacity?


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And there I thought you might want to present arguments for your interpretation of the effect of Australia's baby bonus... that's kind of what the quoted section is about, isn't it?

I quoted both the Russian and Australian examples to illustrate the attitude of world leaders, prime ministers, governments, etc, toward growth and their perceived need to stimulate their nations birth rates. There are more examples.

It's that attitude of growth at any cost that is a large barrier to real change. Not just in population numbers but measures relating to the cult of consumer capitalism. If it hurts business and profit margins, forget about it.

So, considering the overall picture, rising demand driven by rising living standards, resistance to radical change in consumerism, business practices, etc, it appears that it will be a case of too little too late to avert a major crisis.
 
If you are serious about limiting population, you should relish the thought of increasing wealth. It's the best recipe known to mankind for lowering birth rates.


Sure. And it apparently works in both directions, with population growth reduction being a recipe for economic development as well as the other way around, in a sort of virtuous circle.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2781831/


Increasing wealth is the driver increasing consumption rates in an already over-exploited environment. This happens without an increase in population. And still a problem even if world population falls.
 
Humans are basically the cockroaches of the mamalian world. It doesn't matter how much we fuck shit up, I think we'll be fine. As long as there's a guy in our post-nuclear fall-out shelter with a slightly more out of fashion stone tipped spear than us, we'll feel so on top of the world.

1) We're not going to organise all of humanity to cut back on anything. It's just not going to happen. With the CFC's in hairspray and fridges it was different since it was zero cost. But for C02, it ain't going to happen.

2) We can't even talk all people into getting vaccinated. That's incredibly low hanging fruit. That's us getting something great for almost no money, with extremely little work.

3) Environmentalism today is almost entirely virtue signalling. Recycling aluminium cans is a good idea. Collecting batteries is also good. The rest is a waste of energy, and often counter productive. Yet, that's what people talk about. I have a friend who is incredibly environmentally active. It's all she ever talks about. She lives in a house deep in the country, drives a car, keeps buying fun new shit she doesn't really need. Like an off road bike for the kids. She's even got a diploma because she's so environmentally conscious. Erm... she's the exact opposite of environmentally conscious.

So... here's my question... why the fuck are we wasting time on figuring out ways for us to save the planet? It's not going to happen. Why are you doing it (directed to whoever is doing it)?

Why not stick to only talking about how to deal with it, when we're fucked
 
If you are serious about limiting population, you should relish the thought of increasing wealth. It's the best recipe known to mankind for lowering birth rates.


Sure. And it apparently works in both directions, with population growth reduction being a recipe for economic development as well as the other way around, in a sort of virtuous circle.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2781831/


Increasing wealth is the driver increasing consumption rates in an already over-exploited environment. And without an increase in population. A problem even if world population falls.

Yes. My point was that it is commonly said that economic growth will lead to reduced population growth, as if the causality was one way. It isn't, apparently. Not only that, but it doesn't just follow automatically (in either direction) but relies on a range of social and political factors. And as you say (a) it has to do with more than just climate change and (b) economic growth can have many downsides too.
 
...... to illustrate the attitude of world leaders, prime ministers, governments, etc, toward growth and their perceived need to stimulate their nations birth rates. There are more examples.

It's not just world leaders or governments:

"Weapons-grade stupid" prof pushes "population engineering"

[YOUTUBE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPQlDRVZAIw[/YOUTUBE]

Imagine. The audacity of someone suggesting we could and should do something about reducing population growth!
 
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Population Engineering and the Fight against Climate Change
https://www.academia.edu/19933914/Population_Engineering_and_the_Fight_against_Climate_Change

"The standard climate change argument goes like this: Our current carbon-producing practices have us on a path to dangerous climate change. Population projections put us on track to add 2-3 billion more GHG emitters by 2050, which raises the urgency of mitigating and adapting to climate change. Therefore, population growth must be compensated for by policies that more decisively address GHG emissions or adaptation practices. Notice that population size and growth are presented purely descriptively, as if they were merely natural variables to be predicted, rather than human variables subject to alteration. While not everyone in the climate change debate the population variable this way,16 many do, especially those with political authority."





The climate mitigation gap: education and government recommendations miss the most effective individual actions
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7541/meta

The best way to reduce your carbon footprint is one the government isn’t telling you about
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017...tprint-one-government-isn-t-telling-you-about

(Both those articles relate to the same paper)
 
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And a view which promotes a varied approach:

Engineering solutions posed to address world population pressures
https://populationandsustainability...-posed-to-address-world-population-pressures/

1. Energy: Use existing sustainable energy technologies and reduce energy waste
2. Water: Replenish groundwater resources, improve storage of excess water and increase energy efficiencies of desalination.
3. Food: Reduce food waste and resolve the politics of hunger.
4. Urbanisation: Meet the challenges of slums and defending against sea-level rises.
5. Finance: Empower communities and enable implementation.


And on population growth reduction:

This strategy offers a proven and cost effective strategy for slowing population growth and helping achieve other development goals, and must be pursued alongside efforts to address the consequences posed by world population growth.
 
As I said previously, some of these are from the prior, related thread:

Add the fact that population is never likely to exceed 1.5 times it's current value, and you have my point. This is not so much a non-problem, as it is a solved problem. Population growth has almost completely stopped.

All of the problems traditionally ascribed to population in fact have other causes - there is not one single problem in history that was actually caused by population or population density alone - population density can make it harder to resolve problems, or easier to cause them; and can increase the absolute numbers of deaths during a disaster. But there's always an underlying cause that is unrelated to the population number itself.

Our survival is not threatened by resource shortages, nor by population growth. It is threatened by climate change. This is not a resource use nor a population problem, it is a problem of allowing atmospheric CO2 levels to rise unchecked.

Just to clarify, anthropogenic climate change is a problem whose scope is demonstrably independent of population levels.


discussion of population is a red herring; And we should instead be discussing technologies that minimise environmental impact of humans such that we can sustain ten billion of us indefinitely.


You can achieve the optimum outcome by ignoring it completely.

But instead, the people with the most voice waste their breath discussing overpopulation as though that problem hadn't been solved before most of them were even born.

I found 15 minutes this morning to go back and find those. Maybe I could find more examples.

As for those saying that it doesn't offer much of a corner to tackle and/or that it's a factor whose contribution is shrinking, not growing, I could find those too. Finding posts saying that those citing population are suggesting it's the only or main goal (we've had both assertions) wouldn't be hard either. Ditto the suggestion that discussing overpopulation is akin to a religious belief, poisons the well of discussion and is dangerous.



In fact, perhaps the most interesting and surprising aspect of questioning such things (in broad terms the general pooh-poohing by some of population as a factor and population control a useful countermeasure) on this forum recently has been, for me, the increased suspicion, mostly by reading around the topic, that actually, population growth reduction is these days an underestimated and in some cases ignored issue that has more potential as a countermeasure than even I had thought beforehand.

And if it is quite commonly or often understated and sometimes ignored, why? Because Malthus was wrong? Because some countries have used coercion policies? Because some Right Wing Americans have tried to hijack the issue? Because some estimates (the lower ones) show that population should decline this century? Because there are other things that could be done (as well)? I don't think those are sufficient reasons.

And climate change is not the only problem, since there are many other issues to do with quality of life. Not to mention other species, given that we are arguably in the middle of the largest and fastest mass extinction period in known history.

How you can read "population density can make it harder to resolve problems, or easier to cause them" as "population is not a factor" is beyond my understanding.
 
How you can read "population density can make it harder to resolve problems, or easier to cause them" as "population is not a factor" is beyond my understanding.

Hey, if you or anyone else doesn't read those comments collectively as amounting to what I and some others saw them as, no prob. Really. Just don't necessarily skip over them by cherry picking one of the less contentious part of one of them.

In any case, as regards the post that contained the bit you refer to, no one ever said that population growth or numbers or density alone was the problem, so that response was just a version of the straw man that has appeared repeatedly.

Not to mention that the poster was relying on his own, flawed arithmetic to support his opinions anyway.
 
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How you can read "population density can make it harder to resolve problems, or easier to cause them" as "population is not a factor" is beyond my understanding.

Hey, if you or anyone else doesn't read those comments collectively as amounting to what I and some others saw them as, no prob. Really. Just don't necessarily skip over them by cherry picking one of the less contentious part of one of them.[...]

You're quoting a post that explicitly says that it is a factor in support of your claim that people have contested that it's no factor at all.

This is not a matter of different interpretations of ambiguous words. This is a matter of reading what people said vs. inventing your own narrative.
 
This is not a matter of different interpretations of ambiguous words. This is a matter of reading what people said vs. inventing your own narrative.

I have already commented.

Now you do all 7, not just one bit picked out of one of them.

Look, I don't even know why your going on and on about it. In my opinion, and that of some others, it was essentially suggested that population is not a problem. If you want to disagree with that opinion, fine. Really. You'll have your opinion and I'll have mine.

We could then, if you want, move on to the ways in which the issue of population was underplayed and strawmanned. :)

Or, more usefully, we could get back to discussing population vis-a-vis the OP without any of that, or we could just do the OP in general terms.
 
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If your insurance doesn't cover you for self-damage of your own property that's hardly my fault. :D

Now, do all 7, not just one part of one of them.
 
By the way, what is your position? I'm assuming you don't think it's not a problem. And setting aside that it's not a silver bullet issue and that we can agree that it can only potentially assist as part of a varied set of countermeasures, would you agree that it is worthwhile to include it as part of a broad strategy? Personally, I think it's pretty much a no brainer that the answer is yes. And I'm guessing you'd agree.
 
If your insurance doesn't cover you for self-damage of your own property that's hardly my fault. :D

Now, do all 7, not just one part of one of them.

Why would I? bilby has made it excessively clear that he does consider population a factor, in words you (inadvertently and apparently without realising), quoted. How does it matter if there's six, or sixty, or six hundred other posts where he doesn't repeat that explanation? I'm pretty I can find 600 posts where you don't make it clear that you accept that the earth is a spheroid - do I get to call you a flat earther?

No, if you insist that bilby made a claim, and there's evidence that he's claimed the exact opposite, it's up to you to provide reasoning as to why we should believe he changed his mind.
 
By the way, what is your position? I'm assuming you don't think it's not a problem.

And setting aside that it's not a silver bullet issue

stop right here. It *is* a silver-bullet issue: reduce net CO2 to 0, or we're fucked. Fucked with 12 billion people, fucked with 6, fucked with 2, fucked with those 650 million you pulled out somewhere earlier in this thread.

In 1900, the earth's population was 1.6 billion and per capita emissions less than a 5th of what they are today. And yet, CO2 concentrations were rising. That tells us that even 1/5 of 1.6 billion (less than half of your 650 million wherever you pulled them from), at today's global average level of per capita emissions, is too much to avoid climate change merely by absorption through natural processes.

1*DJpt0WeOhuOxFp5dAfZvlQ.png


and that we can agree that it can only potentially assist as part of a varied set of countermeasures, would you agree that it is worthwhile to include it as part of a broad strategy?

What it? Empowering women to choose fewer children? That's a no brainer, but it's a no-brainer without even mentioning the environment. It's a no-brainer because women are people, and that's all we need to consider. Increasing efforts in that arena may have not entirely undesirable side effects, but the effect, in terms of climate change, is negligible - whether we reach peak population 15 years earlier or later, and at one billion more or fewer people, isn't going to change the fact that our current behaviour is not sustainable even if humans numbered only in the low hundreds of millions, or possibly in the tens of millions. Anything beyond that (I've mentioned economic sanctions as a hypothetical, but feel free to suggest better ways how people like you, me or bilby in Northern Ireland, Austria, or Australia, can realistically effect birth rates in e. g. Uganda) is likely to have the opposite effect - even if population control itself is your primary goal. Ostracising societies, dampening their development etc. are more likely to slow the fertility decline that's already happening, than to slow growth.

So, no. As part of a strategy to combat climate change, population control has no place. Most measures in that direction are likely to be ineffective, those that aren't, we should be doing anyway, and focusing on
"overpopulation" (or even just "the population") carries the very real danger of raising false hopes that we can let the fossil fuel lobby off the hook and still get out unscathed. We cannot, so stop doing them the favor of helping pretend that we just might.
 

Family Planning mainly.

Empowering women to choose fewer children? That's a no brainer....

It's not just about women. Family Planning can and does target men too, since they often want large families, for a variety of cultural and historical reasons.

....but it's a no-brainer without even mentioning the environment. It's a no-brainer because women are people, and that's all we need to consider.

That there are other benefits does not make a particular one irrelevant, especially if it's the one we are aiming for, for good reason. For example, pedestrians are people, so we could say that if there were less vehicles on the roads, less pedestrians would get injured by them, but that doesn't mean that less vehicles wouldn't also mean less emissions, which we all agree is relevant to what we are aiming for in relation to the topic at hand, and which reduced population growth would contribute to, so we should consider it. There might indeed be more than one type of benefit to something, but they would in this case be slightly different issues.

Increasing efforts in that arena may have not entirely undesirable side effects, but the effect...

If the aim is to reduce population growth (and by extension emissions) then they would be effects.

...but the effect, in terms of climate change, is negligible

Not so, apparently, according to some studies.

...whether we reach peak population 15 years earlier or later, and at one billion more or fewer people, isn't going to change the fact that our current behaviour is not sustainable even if humans numbered only in the low hundreds of millions, or possibly in the tens of millions.

It would help our chances.

Anything beyond that (I've mentioned economic sanctions as a hypothetical, but feel free to suggest better ways how people like you, me or bilby in Northern Ireland, Austria, or Australia, can realistically effect birth rates in e. g. Uganda) is likely to have the opposite effect - even if population control itself is your primary goal. Ostracising societies, dampening their development etc. are more likely to slow the fertility decline that's already happening, than to slow growth.

First, it is not what you, I or Bilby can do to affect birth rates in other countries, it is what concerted efforts on the part of various organisations can do, and the answer is already proven. Population growth reduction strategies have worked in many countries and could be continued or stepped up. Even in our own countries, you, I and Bilby could not do much, but there are things that could be done, and given that each new child in our countries would it seems (a) cause a carbon footprint many times larger than that of a typical child in Africa and (b) cause more damage than a host of other actions its parents might take all added together, there is a case that more should be done if we (as a species I mean) want to improve our chances of surviving what is ahead. It's not a clear cut case, but there are aspects of it that are correct.

Second, given that Population growth control efforts are proven to work, and much evidence to suggest they could continue to work, and be relatively cheaper than some or many other measures, I think it's questionable to suggest either that they will not work or that they will have the opposite effect.


.. even if population control itself is your primary goal.

Well, it isn't, if you mean my primary countermeasure among all countermeasures. It is if you mean my primary goal for population growth reduction measures, yes. Just clarifying.

So, no. As part of a strategy to combat climate change, population control has no place.

Ok, so I guessed wrong about you.

Most measures in that direction are likely to be ineffective...

Moot. See above.

...those that aren't, we should be doing anyway

Slightly separate issue. See above comment on 'other benefits'.

...and focusing on
"overpopulation" (or even just "the population") carries the very real danger of raising false hopes that we can let the fossil fuel lobby off the hook and still get out unscathed. We cannot, so stop doing them the favor of helping pretend that we just might.

Well, on the one hand, we have the fact that population growth control measures have worked and there is no strong reason to think that they would not continue to, thereby reducing the problems we are talking about. And on the other hand you say there is a risk that the net effect would be lesser or negative overall because of for example letting the fossil fuel lobby off the hook. I think you would need to make a better case for the latter, which seems more speculative. The net effects might be additive.

Because we might say, in relation to what we are discussing at this particular point, that we have two ways forward. The first would be to address the crisis without addressing population and the second would be to address the crisis by various measures, including addressing population.

Incidentally, both are explicitly discussed in sections 2 & 3 (respectively) of this paper (also posted earlier) and the case is made for the latter being comparatively better:

https://www.academia.edu/19933914/Population_Engineering_and_the_Fight_against_Climate_Change

What is the extended (and ideally evidenced) case for the former being comparatively better?
 
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...... to illustrate the attitude of world leaders, prime ministers, governments, etc, toward growth and their perceived need to stimulate their nations birth rates. There are more examples.

It's not just world leaders or governments:

"Weapons-grade stupid" prof pushes "population engineering"

[YOUTUBE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPQlDRVZAIw[/YOUTUBE]

Imagine. The audacity of someone suggesting we could and should do something about reducing population growth!


Wow.
 
...... to illustrate the attitude of world leaders, prime ministers, governments, etc, toward growth and their perceived need to stimulate their nations birth rates. There are more examples.

It's not just world leaders or governments:

"Weapons-grade stupid" prof pushes "population engineering"

[YOUTUBE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPQlDRVZAIw[/YOUTUBE]

Imagine. The audacity of someone suggesting we could and should do something about reducing population growth!


Wow.

Yeah. Incredible.

How about 'weapons-grade stupid person discusses population growth reduction' as an alternative title?

Although personally, I think I'm fine with 'population engineering' and am actually inclined to like the term. Though clearly it could be a trigger term, because it may commonly be seen as being loaded, so there may be a downside to using it because of how it is interpreted or used or indeed misused by some. And because it could (though doesn't have to and that professor doesn't) go as far as permitting coercive measures, even if it might philosophically consider them (which I think is a good thing).

Part of what I like about it though is how it levels the playing field and cuts through the misplaced vanity we often have about ourselves and our status in the world. It counters the idea that hoomans and their 'procreative liberties' are so spechul that such a term should not apply to them.

I sometimes think that many if not most humans around the world are still, socially, biologically and psychologically living 'as if' it was still a 'good' thing to reproduce as much as they can and specifically to grow 'tribe' numbers.

Which is, I think, not unrelated to your other point about our obsession with growth in other ways, such as in economics. You might say we just love growth and 'more', to the point of it arguably being a fetish or an addiction (see also: sugar, in some analogous ways) beyond the point where it's benign or in our best survival interests, in other words when the urge has gone beyond its sell-by date. You might even say that evolution is too slow-moving and has not equipped us well for processes and changes that have operated at faster rates. So when I watch that video, I see a talking ape, in more ways than one.
 
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Briefly, earlier I said that each child born in 'our countries' would contribute many more times the CO2 emissions than a child born in a typical African country. Checking the data, I see that for example comparing USA to Uganda (since it was mentioned) it would be 125 times as much per child, similarly for Madagascar, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Niger & Mali, over 200 times for Malawi, Rwanda, CAR, and Congo, and over 400 times as much for Somalia, Burundi and Chad.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC?year_high_desc=false
 
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