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Will human population and economic activity exceed the Planets carrying capacity?

Will human population and economic activity exceed the Planets carrying capacity?


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At the risk of being accused of ONLY pushing the population issue (which I am at the moment, but only to counter the suggestion that it should not be a consideration)........

"Our results also show that reduced population growth could
make a significant contribution to global emissions reductions.
Several analyses have estimated how much emissions would have
to be reduced by 2050 to meet long-term policy goals such as
avoiding warming of more than 2 °C (27) or preventing a doubling
of CO2 concentrations through implementation of a portfolio of
mitigation measures characterized as “stabilization wedges”.
Our estimate that following a lower population path could reduce
emissions 1.4–2.5 GtC/y by 2050 is equivalent to 16–29% of the
emission reductions necessary to achieve these goals or approximately
1–1.5 wedges of emissions reductions (SI Text has details of
this calculation). By the end of the century, the effect of slower
population growth would be even more significant, reducing total
emissions from fossil fuel use by 37–41% across the two scenarios."


Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions
http://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2010/09/30/1004581107.full.pdf

So as far as I can tell, when they say 'following a lower population path' they are referring to the lower path on this predictive diagram:

View attachment 18208

So it suggests that what happens to population over the next 30-80 years is going to make quite a big difference. And the range of population possibilities in the UN estimates include (at the higher path) for population to still be increasing by 2100, so it would seem at least a bit risky to just assume the problem will sort itself out.

Yes. Not to mention that we would not be in this position if our world population had stabilized at 2 billion.

Maybe, maybe not. In 1900, total carbon emmission were about 1/15 what they were in 2015. The population was just over 1/5. The gross global product, however, was about 1/75. This means per capita carbon emission has grown about 3-fold, while carbon emissions per $1000 of wealth generates has fallen about five-fold. If we are allowed to make random hypotheticals (like "if our world population had stabilised"), how about this one: The world population stabilizes, prosperity grows as it does, but the delinking of wealth generated and carbon emissions doesn't happen: We'd be emitting just as much carbon as we are, or possibly more (aren't you overpopulation advocates also constantly claiming that overpopulation is the main reason poor countries stay poor?)

That aside, we have to work with what we have. What we have is a situation where, short of killing 5 billions of healthy individuals, there is no way to get us down to two billion within a reasonable time frame. Even if birth's dropped to 0 today and stayed at 0 indefinitely, it'd take at least 50 and more likely over 60 years before we reached that number: There's in the order of 2 billion people under the age of 15 alive today. So unless you're willing to commit the largest genocide in human history with a victim count two orders of magnitude above the runner-up, this is not a viable corner from which to tackle the problem.

On the other hand, the technology to replace fossil fuels with other energy sources and/or extract carbon from the atmosphere to balance the emissions is available today. Unless genocide is an option for you, worrying about "over"population is thus simply a massive waste of time.
 
And about that 'overcrowding' business... (over)crowding is pretty much the best thing that can happen to the environment (ever since most people stopped to be subsistence farmers)!

When I got a new job earlier this year, my new workplace was about a 10 minutes bike ride from the old one (and 15 from home). In the countryside, it would likely have been a 1hour+ commute by car. And I don't turn on the heating for half of the winter - my neighbours above and below apparently prefer 3 degrees more than I do, and their residual heat is enough to keep my flat at a comfortable temperature.
 
If we are allowed to make random hypotheticals (like "if our world population had stabilised"), how about this one: The world population stabilizes, prosperity grows as it does, but the delinking of wealth generated and carbon emissions doesn't happen: We'd be emitting just as much carbon as we are, or possibly more (aren't you overpopulation advocates also constantly claiming that overpopulation is the main reason poor countries stay poor?)

That seems to be one possible scenario, yes. I've not said that wealth and emissions are not related or that there isn't an uneven distribution. That the wealthiest contribute disproportionately to emissions is quite well accepted and if their relative contribution could be reduced, that would help, yes.

That aside, we have to work with what we have. What we have is a situation where, short of killing 5 billions of healthy individuals, there is no way to get us down to two billion within a reasonable time frame. Even if birth's dropped to 0 today and stayed at 0 indefinitely, it'd take at least 50 and more likely over 60 years before we reached that number: There's in the order of 2 billion people under the age of 15 alive today. So unless you're willing to commit the largest genocide in human history with a victim count two orders of magnitude above the runner-up, this is not a viable corner from which to tackle the problem.

On the other hand, the technology to replace fossil fuels with other energy sources and/or extract carbon from the atmosphere to balance the emissions is available today. Unless genocide is an option for you, worrying about "over"population is thus simply a massive waste of time.

In the post you linked to it was suggested that increased family planning initiatives alone could achieve a 16-29% cut in emissions by 2050 and 37-41% by the end of the century. That surely cannot be a waste of time, even if those figures are optimistic and only lesser effects could be obtained. And could we stop with the genocide red herring too?

And, '"you overpopulation advocates"? I suppose soon we'll be hearing the word "overpopulationists" or something. Always has to be 'us' and 'them', is that it?

Even though no one has yet shown that there are people saying population or overpopulation is the only problem or the main solution and ignoring other issues, let alone that such a position is widely acceptable or akin to a religion. Again, for about the 4th time, who are these people? Where is this supposed wide acceptance of that position? Should it even matter if some do exist who say that? Shouldn't reasonable people be eschewing extreme and simplistic positions in either direction?

And the OP is demonstrably not an example of it just for including population alongside several other factors.

And I myself have repeatedly said that I have mainly been doing population in the thread specifically in order to make the case that it is a part of the problem, since it was suggested otherwise. I have said I'm quite happy to agree that dramatic and rapid increases in world population are not the only cause and that population growth reduction initiatives not necessarily the most pragmatic parts of the solution, albeit they could be incorporated as part of a multi-pronged approach with stronger focuses elsewhere.

On a supposedly rationalist forum it should not be too hard for intelligent and reasonable people to acknowledge that population is an issue, along with several others, even if not the only one or the main target for countermeasures, without this unfortunate and somewhat pointless regress into bickering about goodies and baddies. :(
 
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How about this, a paper from 2004, the two authors are a biologist and a physicist respectively:

Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/c9e5/2d7a9feadd1ad3b85ea2f39a58f0ab0bafc1.pdf

15 potential 'wedges' for tackling the issue over a 50 year timescale. And for those who are averse to mention of the word overpopulation, population growth reduction measures isn't one of the 15, albeit the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has criticised the approach for leaving out population considerations altogether and focusing instead on technological fixes for what it calls a growth economics model. That criticism aside, the 15 'wedges' do seem to constitute a worthwhile strategy.

Screen Shot 2018-10-19 at 09.08.11.png
 
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And the OP is not an example of it just for including population.

That's right. I specified 'economic activity' - a smaller population may be unsustainable because of a high rate of consumption. A world population of 10 billion plus may be sustainable if consumption rate is lower than our current rate.

Even if the latter is achieved, the issue of tolerable living conditions comes into it, high rise, high density housing is not necessarily appealing, or even an ideal way to live.
 
To those who want to see a dramatic reduction in world population, I have just one message: "Great idea. You first".

There are other ways, voluntarily opting for smaller families, no more than one or two children. Not enforced, just a smarter way of living, given our predicament. Education not legislation. Meanwhile switching to renewable energy sources, perhaps nuclear, etc, etc......
 
And the OP is not an example of it just for including population.

That's right. I specified 'economic activity' - a smaller population may be unsustainable because of a high rate of consumption. A world population of 10 billion plus may be sustainable if consumption rate is lower than our current rate.

Yes and in your 1st post you said 'many factors' and included 'rate of consumption, climate conditions, habitat loss, pollution, etc'.
 
And about that 'overcrowding' business... (over)crowding is pretty much the best thing that can happen to the environment (ever since most people stopped to be subsistence farmers)!

When I got a new job earlier this year, my new workplace was about a 10 minutes bike ride from the old one (and 15 from home). In the countryside, it would likely have been a 1hour+ commute by car. And I don't turn on the heating for half of the winter - my neighbours above and below apparently prefer 3 degrees more than I do, and their residual heat is enough to keep my flat at a comfortable temperature.

It might be true that if population was stable, concentrating that population together could have net benefits, yes, but urbanisation has in reality been happening in conjunction with dramatic and rapid increases in world population, so whatever benefits there have been (and there are benefits as you say) these have been outweighed in overall terms.

And it also depends where you live, apparently. In colder regions, 'urban heat island' effects can reduce the need for heating. In hotter regions, they can increase the need for cooling via air conditioning.
 
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And the OP is not an example of it just for including population.

That's right. I specified 'economic activity' - a smaller population may be unsustainable because of a high rate of consumption. A world population of 10 billion plus may be sustainable if consumption rate is lower than our current rate.

Yes and in your 1st post you said 'many factors' and included 'rate of consumption, climate conditions, habitat loss, pollution, etc'.


That's right. Sometimes it doesn't matter what you say, or how you say it, it comes out differently when read by someone who disagrees with the premise. How something is interpreted appears to be more indicative of the psychology and beliefs of the reader than what was intended or said the text.
 
Yes and in your 1st post you said 'many factors' and included 'rate of consumption, climate conditions, habitat loss, pollution, etc'.


That's right. Sometimes it doesn't matter what you say, or how you say it, it comes out differently when read by someone who disagrees with the premise. How something is interpreted appears to be more indicative of the psychology and beliefs of the reader than what was intended or said the text.

Well, you did later sneak in the trigger word overpopulation and revealed yourself to be the dangerous cultist you really are.
 
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Yes and in your 1st post you said 'many factors' and included 'rate of consumption, climate conditions, habitat loss, pollution, etc'.


That's right. Sometimes it doesn't matter what you say, or how you say it, it comes out differently when read by someone who disagrees with the premise. How something is interpreted appears to be more indicative of the psychology and beliefs of the reader than what was intended or said the text.

Well, you did later sneak in the trigger word overpopulation and revealed yourself to be the dangerous cultist you really are.

I think it is disingenuous to pretend that overpopulation hysteria has not been used to justify atrocities.
 
Well, you did later sneak in the trigger word overpopulation and revealed yourself to be the dangerous cultist you really are.

I think it is disingenuous to pretend that overpopulation hysteria has not been used to justify atrocities.

Wrong thread?

It is, demonstrably, a dangerous cult that has led to the death or forced sterilization of millions. It's not unreasonable to call it a dangerous cult if it actually is.
 
Wrong thread?

It is, demonstrably, a dangerous cult that has led to the death or forced sterilization of millions. It's not unreasonable to call it a dangerous cult if it actually is.

If overpopulation has been used to justify atrocities, it would be disingenuous to pretend it hadn't. If you catch someone doing that, bring it up.

I really am not sure anyone here using the word said anything about forced sterilization, or indeed forced anything.

Or do you think just using the word 'overpopulation' automatically makes one a member of such a 'cult'?

So apparently it's a trigger word for you at least then.
 
Wrong thread?

It is, demonstrably, a dangerous cult that has led to the death or forced sterilization of millions. It's not unreasonable to call it a dangerous cult if it actually is.

If overpopulation has been used to justify atrocities, it would be disingenuous to pretend it hadn't. If you catch someone doing that, bring it up.

I really am not sure anyone here using the word said anything about forced sterilization, or indeed forced anything.

Or do you think just using the word 'overpopulation' automatically makes one a member of such a 'cult'?

So it's a trigger word for you at least then.

Well, it's a bit of an implied threat, isn't it?

"There are just too many people in the kingdom lately" is a bit of a "Can no one rid me of this troublesome monk" kind of phrase. There are only so many ways to... suddenly have a lot less people.
 
If overpopulation has been used to justify atrocities, it would be disingenuous to pretend it hadn't. If you catch someone doing that, bring it up.

I really am not sure anyone here using the word said anything about forced sterilization, or indeed forced anything.

Or do you think just using the word 'overpopulation' automatically makes one a member of such a 'cult'?

So it's a trigger word for you at least then.

Well, it's a bit of an implied threat, isn't it?

"There are just too many people in the kingdom lately" is a bit of a "Can no one rid me of this troublesome monk" kind of phrase. There are only so many ways to... suddenly have a lot less people.

You're right. Let's do genocide again next. Promoting Family Planning is clearly just the thin end of a giant, serated steel wedge.

Ffs poli. If mention of the word overpopulation is automatically an implied threat of atrocities to you that's about as triggered as triggered gets.
 
If overpopulation has been used to justify atrocities, it would be disingenuous to pretend it hadn't. If you catch someone doing that, bring it up.

I really am not sure anyone here using the word said anything about forced sterilization, or indeed forced anything.

Or do you think just using the word 'overpopulation' automatically makes one a member of such a 'cult'?

So it's a trigger word for you at least then.

Well, it's a bit of an implied threat, isn't it?

"There are just too many people in the kingdom lately" is a bit of a "Can no one rid me of this troublesome monk" kind of phrase. There are only so many ways to... suddenly have a lot less people.

You're right. Let's do genocide again next. Promoting Family Planning is clearly just the thin end of a giant, serated steel wedge.

Ffs poli. If mention of the word overpopulation is automatically an implied threat of atrocities to you that's about as triggered as triggered gets.

Voluntary family planning is something that literally no one in this conversation objects to, nor has ever objected to.
 
My comment to DBT was in light of it being said that overpopulation was widely accepted as an issue above all other issues, and the reason for countermeasures above all others.

So, thank you. It's a valid issue and at least an answer to a question similar to mine in some ways. If there are those who go as far as to force individuals to be sterilized for population control reasons to do with reducing the effects of climate change, then.....we could disagree with that and say it's not good or wrong.

But it does not make the case, in return, for ignoring population as a causal factor or an issue suitable for attempting countermeasures. Which has been my main point throughout.

- - - Updated - - -

Voluntary family planning is something that literally no one in this conversation objects to, nor has ever objected to.

Good. And is what I would have assumed. And no one has advocated forced sterilization.

Dude. Yes they have.

I know that. But you said 'in this conversation' and I replied on the same basis.
 
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